India's headline inflation rate is likely to hover at 8 to 9 percent for some time and will hit double digits before declining in the last quarter of calendar 2008, its chief statistician said on Tuesday.
India's most widely watched inflation measure, the wholesale price index (WPI), is already at a seven-year high of 8.75 percent and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly raised its key lending rate last week to 8.0 percent in an effort to calm prices.
Economists expect the impact of a hike in government-set fuel prices early in June will push the WPI to a 13-year peak above 9 percent this month. The early June data is due this Friday.
Pronab Sen, secretary at the ministry of statistics and programme implementation, told Reuters in an interview primary price increases had been factored in but second-round increases were now coming through into the inflation numbers.
"Numerically, I suspect it's going to hang around at somewhere between the 8 and 9 percent mark for a while," Sen said.
Asked if inflation would reach double digits, he replied: "It will touch it but it's not likely to stay there for very long."
Rising costs of raw materials, food and energy worldwide have stoked prices in Asia's third-largest economy, prompting the government to ban some exports and slash some import duties to keep supplies up and prices down.
Inflation is well above the RBI's comfort zone of 5.5 percent and is posing a major policy headache for the communist-backed ruling coalition in the run-up to key state and federal polls later this year and in 2009, as rising prices hit the poorer members of the population the hardest.
BACK TO TREND
India's economy grew 9 percent in the fiscal year which ended in March and Sen said growth was moderating.
"Now we are starting to taper down to the trend and the trend would be somewhere between 8 and 8.5 percent. So I suspect we'll be there somewhere."
But he added that with inflation and efforts to control it, as well as a global slowdown, growth might drop below trend.
"We might actually overshoot on the downward trajectory a little bit, so we might dip slightly below 8 percent but eventually we'll catch up."
The economy has averaged 8.8 percent in the past four years. The RBI expects it will expand at 8-8.5 percent this fiscal year to March, while some economists and policymakers say it could be lower.
On prices, Sen said the peak would depend on how soon demand was compressed and when new industrial capacity came on stream.
"So I'm really looking at the last quarter of the calendar for it to start coming down."
Demand was hard to gauge because of lack of data but there was some evidence of moderation in fast-moving consumer goods and white goods, he said.
Except for steel, capacity was being created across sectors, including pharmaceuticals, auto components, autos and cement, while capital goods, such as engineering plant and machinery, had gained in strength after a late start to capacity addition in 2006.
Inflation eased quickly in late 2007, dropping to just above 3 percent, and Sen said that base effect would give the headline rate an artificial "push-up" at the same time this year.
Where it ended the fiscal year next March would depend on the government's policy on domestic fuel prices, he said.
"A lot depends on what is done on oil prices and that's a policy matter," he said.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Pranab meets Karat to push n-deal
External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee met CPI-M leader Prakash Karat for half an hour Monday night and sought the Left's support in finalising an India-specific safeguards agreement with the IAEA - a crucial step in the conclusion of its nuclear deal with the United States.
Mukherjee, who heads the 15-member United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-Left nuclear panel, had a one-hour talk with Karat during which he reiterated the government's request to allow them to finalise the safeguards agreement that is applicable only to India before International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed El Baradei completes his term in July, well placed sources confirmed to IANS.
Mukherjee is believed to have told Karat that the communists' apprehension that finalising the IAEA pact would put the politically contentious agreement on auto pilot is 'wrong'.
The UPA-Left panel holds a crucial meeting Wednesday.
According to the sources, Mukherjee, considered the most important member of the cabinet after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, told Karat that the Left has to 'trust' the government and that the government has not taken any steps without the communist allies' consent so far.
Karat reportedly told Mukherjee that the Left still has apprehensions over the deal but he would discuss the minister's new appeal with the other Left allies and get back to the government. The meeting was held from 8.30-9.30 p.m. at Mukherjee's residence, the sources said.
The minister is also said to have told Karat that the government would in future not make any move without discussing with the Left parties. The sources also said Mukherjee told the Left leader that the UPA government would sign this deal only with adequate parliamentary backing.
According to a senior Congress minister, even party chief Sonia Gandhi has clarified that the nuclear deal should not come at the cost of 'sacrificing the government.'
'We do not want to create a bad precedent by pushing the deal if the government is reduced to a minority,' the minister, who did not wish to be identified, told IANS.
Once the IAEA agreement is finalised, it will be placed before the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to get an 'India-specific' waiver to its guideline, thus clearing the way for nuclear commerce between New Delhi and NSG member countries.
Once it passes through the NSG, the US Congress will have to decide if it wants to give its nod to the 123 Agreement to change its domestic laws to allow trade between US companies and India on civilian nuclear energy and technology.
The CPI-M-led Left parties, which extend crucial legislative support to the UPA government, had given the green signal for negotiation with the IAEA - but insisted that it could not be finalised without their approval.
Mukherjee, who heads the 15-member United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-Left nuclear panel, had a one-hour talk with Karat during which he reiterated the government's request to allow them to finalise the safeguards agreement that is applicable only to India before International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed El Baradei completes his term in July, well placed sources confirmed to IANS.
Mukherjee is believed to have told Karat that the communists' apprehension that finalising the IAEA pact would put the politically contentious agreement on auto pilot is 'wrong'.
The UPA-Left panel holds a crucial meeting Wednesday.
According to the sources, Mukherjee, considered the most important member of the cabinet after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, told Karat that the Left has to 'trust' the government and that the government has not taken any steps without the communist allies' consent so far.
Karat reportedly told Mukherjee that the Left still has apprehensions over the deal but he would discuss the minister's new appeal with the other Left allies and get back to the government. The meeting was held from 8.30-9.30 p.m. at Mukherjee's residence, the sources said.
The minister is also said to have told Karat that the government would in future not make any move without discussing with the Left parties. The sources also said Mukherjee told the Left leader that the UPA government would sign this deal only with adequate parliamentary backing.
According to a senior Congress minister, even party chief Sonia Gandhi has clarified that the nuclear deal should not come at the cost of 'sacrificing the government.'
'We do not want to create a bad precedent by pushing the deal if the government is reduced to a minority,' the minister, who did not wish to be identified, told IANS.
Once the IAEA agreement is finalised, it will be placed before the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to get an 'India-specific' waiver to its guideline, thus clearing the way for nuclear commerce between New Delhi and NSG member countries.
Once it passes through the NSG, the US Congress will have to decide if it wants to give its nod to the 123 Agreement to change its domestic laws to allow trade between US companies and India on civilian nuclear energy and technology.
The CPI-M-led Left parties, which extend crucial legislative support to the UPA government, had given the green signal for negotiation with the IAEA - but insisted that it could not be finalised without their approval.
No signs of water yet from Mars lander
In its first chemical analysis of soil from Mars' northern plains, NASA's Phoenix lander has turned up no evidence of water, scientists said Monday.
Still, researchers remained confident that the craft is in the right place to uncover veins of ice believed to lie only inches beneath the surface.
Archive: Phoenix on Mars NASA's Mars Phoenix lander is really cooking nowA soil sample was cooked twice in one of Phoenix's eight ovens over the last few days, according to William Boynton, lead scientist for the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer, or TEGA. The first test reached 95 degrees, the second 350 degrees.
"Had there been any ice, it would have melted," Boynton said. "We saw no water in the soil whatsoever."
The instrument detected carbon dioxide, hardly a surprise since the thin Martian atmosphere is primarily made up of CO2.
The goal of the $420-million Phoenix mission is to find out whether Mars is, or ever was, suitable for rudimentary life forms. Phoenix landed near Mars' north pole May 25.
The science team at the University of Arizona and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge were not disappointed by the failure to turn up water on the first test sample. Phoenix's nearly 8-foot-long robotic arm has only dug 2 to 3 inches into the soil, at a region named Dodo-Goldilocks. The ice layer, they said, is probably farther down.
The latest images of the trench from which the soil was taken show light-toned material that the scientists think could be ice protruding from the trench's side.
"It looks like we clipped the edge of the top of a polygon," said Ray Arvidson, the lead scientist for the lander's robotic arm.
The polygonal land forms -- small mounds bounded by shallow trenches -- are similar to features that scientists have seen in the Arctic on Earth caused by subsurface ice.
"This could be the tip of the iceberg," Arvidson said.
The science team will next turn its attention to a nearby region called Wonderland, where it thinks the ice layer is close to the surface.
The TEGA ovens are designed to reach 1,800 degrees, because different elements burn off at different temperatures. Tests over the next few weeks should help uncover any water bound up with the minerals, if not water itself, scientists said.
NASA's twin Mars rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, have found evidence that water was once plentiful in the form of standing lakes and streams on Mars' surface.
Scientists now hope to find and test water to help determine whether present-day Mars could be habitable.
The last NASA landers to test for habitability on Mars were the twin Viking probes, which landed in 1976. Neither found any organic molecules that would be a good indicator of Mars' suitability for life.
That caused planetary scientists to virtually abandon Mars for two decades, until a new generation of scientists proposed that life-sustaining conditions might be found underground at the poles.
Scientists were encouraged by findings from the gamma ray spectrometer on the orbiting Mars Odyssey spacecraft, which in 2002 detected a large concentration of hydrogen in the top few feet of soil at the pole. Scientists believed that indicated vast quantities of ice underground.
Still, researchers remained confident that the craft is in the right place to uncover veins of ice believed to lie only inches beneath the surface.
Archive: Phoenix on Mars NASA's Mars Phoenix lander is really cooking nowA soil sample was cooked twice in one of Phoenix's eight ovens over the last few days, according to William Boynton, lead scientist for the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer, or TEGA. The first test reached 95 degrees, the second 350 degrees.
"Had there been any ice, it would have melted," Boynton said. "We saw no water in the soil whatsoever."
The instrument detected carbon dioxide, hardly a surprise since the thin Martian atmosphere is primarily made up of CO2.
The goal of the $420-million Phoenix mission is to find out whether Mars is, or ever was, suitable for rudimentary life forms. Phoenix landed near Mars' north pole May 25.
The science team at the University of Arizona and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge were not disappointed by the failure to turn up water on the first test sample. Phoenix's nearly 8-foot-long robotic arm has only dug 2 to 3 inches into the soil, at a region named Dodo-Goldilocks. The ice layer, they said, is probably farther down.
The latest images of the trench from which the soil was taken show light-toned material that the scientists think could be ice protruding from the trench's side.
"It looks like we clipped the edge of the top of a polygon," said Ray Arvidson, the lead scientist for the lander's robotic arm.
The polygonal land forms -- small mounds bounded by shallow trenches -- are similar to features that scientists have seen in the Arctic on Earth caused by subsurface ice.
"This could be the tip of the iceberg," Arvidson said.
The science team will next turn its attention to a nearby region called Wonderland, where it thinks the ice layer is close to the surface.
The TEGA ovens are designed to reach 1,800 degrees, because different elements burn off at different temperatures. Tests over the next few weeks should help uncover any water bound up with the minerals, if not water itself, scientists said.
NASA's twin Mars rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, have found evidence that water was once plentiful in the form of standing lakes and streams on Mars' surface.
Scientists now hope to find and test water to help determine whether present-day Mars could be habitable.
The last NASA landers to test for habitability on Mars were the twin Viking probes, which landed in 1976. Neither found any organic molecules that would be a good indicator of Mars' suitability for life.
That caused planetary scientists to virtually abandon Mars for two decades, until a new generation of scientists proposed that life-sustaining conditions might be found underground at the poles.
Scientists were encouraged by findings from the gamma ray spectrometer on the orbiting Mars Odyssey spacecraft, which in 2002 detected a large concentration of hydrogen in the top few feet of soil at the pole. Scientists believed that indicated vast quantities of ice underground.
Same-Sex Marriages Begin in California
With a series of simple “I dos,” gay couples across California inaugurated the state’s court-approved and potentially short-lived legalization of same-sex marriage on Monday, the first of what is expected to be a crush of such unions in coming weeks.
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Jim Wilson/The New York Times
Del Martin, seated, and Phyllis Lyon were the first same-sex couple in San Francisco to exchange wedding vows on Monday. Mayor Gavin Newsom, left, presided.
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Share Your Stories: Gay Marriage in California
The weddings began in a handful of locations around the state at exactly 5:01 p.m., the earliest time allowed by last month’s decision by the California Supreme Court legalizing same-sex marriage. Many more ceremonies will be held on Tuesday when all 58 counties will be issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.
In San Francisco, Del Martin, 87, and Phyllis Lyon, 84, longtime gay rights activists, were the first and only couple to be wed here, saying their vows in the office of Mayor Gavin Newsom, before emerging to a throng of reporters and screaming well-wishers.
Ms. Martin and Ms. Lyon, who have been together for more than 50 years, seemed touched, if a little amazed by all the attention.
“When we first got together we weren’t thinking about getting married,” Ms. Lyon said before cutting a wedding cake. “I think it’s a wonderful day.”
Outside City Hall, several hundred supporters and protesters chanted, cheered and jeered in equal measure, giving an unruly carnival feel to the scene, complete with a marching band playing wedding songs and signs reading “Homo Sex is Sin.”
In Oakland, across the bay from San Francisco, Mayor Ron Dellums presided over more than a dozen marriages in the City Council chambers, which had been transformed into a de facto wedding chapel, with stands of flowers and a standing-room-only crowd.
In Sonoma County, the wine-rich region north of here, 18 couples were scheduled to be wed on Monday, including Chris Lechman, 37, and Mark Gren, 42, who called to book their nuptials shortly after the court’s decision.
“We’ve been on pins and needles,” said Mr. Lechman, who celebrated the 15th anniversary of meeting Mr. Gren on Monday. “We are thrilled to be part of history.”
Janice Atkinson, the Sonoma County clerk, said her office would stay open late for the rest of the month to accommodate what she expected would be a heavy load of same-sex weddings.
On Sunday, Ms. Atkinson and staff members were at a gay pride celebration in Sonoma handing out applications for marriage licenses to prospective newlyweds.
“We’re expecting some very happy couples,” she said. “And a lot of media.”
The selection of Ms. Martin and Ms. Lyon as San Francisco’s first same-sex couple was symbolic; the couple wed here in 2004, when the city broke state law by issuing more than 4,000 marriage licenses and conducting weddings in City Hall. Those marriages were later invalidated by the state Supreme Court.
On May 15, however, the same court struck down the two California laws that prohibited such unions, opening the door for California to becomes the second, and largest, American state to legalize same-sex marriage. Massachusetts did so in 2004, and more than 10,500 couples have wed there.
Same-sex marriage has been hotly contested nationwide and state by state in the courts and at the ballot box, and California is no exception.
Voters in the state will decide a ballot measure in November that would effectively overturn the court’s decision by defining marriage as “between a man and a woman.”
Forty-four states already have some sort of legal barrier — either a law or constitutional amendment — barring such unions. In 2004 alone, 13 states passed ballot measures banning same-sex marriage.
This year, however, supporters have found encouragement in both the California Supreme Court decision and in a subsequent order by Gov. David A. Paterson of New York to force his state agencies to recognize same-sex marriages from elsewhere. The California court has also rebuffed several challenges to its May 15 decision made by two conservative legal groups and Republican attorneys general who fear that the marriages will cause legal challenges to be brought in their own states.
One legal challenge was filed last week by the Liberty Counsel, a group based in Florida that wants the California Court of Appeal to halt the weddings to allow the State Legislature time to work out discrepancies in marriage law created by the state Supreme Court’s decision.
Mathew D. Staver, the founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel, said Monday’s ceremonies “make a mockery of marriage.”
“Marriage has traditionally been known, across continents and all geographical regions, as between a man and a woman,” said Mr. Staver, who is 51 and married. “Marriage between the same sex may be some sort of union, but it’s certainly not marriage.”
There has also been some local opposition to the ceremonies. In rural Kern County, north of Los Angeles, the county clerk has canceled all weddings performed by her office, a position she took after consulting with the Alliance Defense Fund, an Arizona legal group that argues against marriage for gay men and lesbians. Weddings at the county clerk’s office — long an affordable, no-frills option for couples — have also been called off in Butte County, north of Sacramento, the state capital.
In more liberal parts of the state, however, the weddings were being warmly embraced.
Skip to next paragraph
Enlarge This Image
Jim Wilson/The New York Times
Del Martin, seated, and Phyllis Lyon were the first same-sex couple in San Francisco to exchange wedding vows on Monday. Mayor Gavin Newsom, left, presided.
Related
Share Your Stories: Gay Marriage in California
The weddings began in a handful of locations around the state at exactly 5:01 p.m., the earliest time allowed by last month’s decision by the California Supreme Court legalizing same-sex marriage. Many more ceremonies will be held on Tuesday when all 58 counties will be issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.
In San Francisco, Del Martin, 87, and Phyllis Lyon, 84, longtime gay rights activists, were the first and only couple to be wed here, saying their vows in the office of Mayor Gavin Newsom, before emerging to a throng of reporters and screaming well-wishers.
Ms. Martin and Ms. Lyon, who have been together for more than 50 years, seemed touched, if a little amazed by all the attention.
“When we first got together we weren’t thinking about getting married,” Ms. Lyon said before cutting a wedding cake. “I think it’s a wonderful day.”
Outside City Hall, several hundred supporters and protesters chanted, cheered and jeered in equal measure, giving an unruly carnival feel to the scene, complete with a marching band playing wedding songs and signs reading “Homo Sex is Sin.”
In Oakland, across the bay from San Francisco, Mayor Ron Dellums presided over more than a dozen marriages in the City Council chambers, which had been transformed into a de facto wedding chapel, with stands of flowers and a standing-room-only crowd.
In Sonoma County, the wine-rich region north of here, 18 couples were scheduled to be wed on Monday, including Chris Lechman, 37, and Mark Gren, 42, who called to book their nuptials shortly after the court’s decision.
“We’ve been on pins and needles,” said Mr. Lechman, who celebrated the 15th anniversary of meeting Mr. Gren on Monday. “We are thrilled to be part of history.”
Janice Atkinson, the Sonoma County clerk, said her office would stay open late for the rest of the month to accommodate what she expected would be a heavy load of same-sex weddings.
On Sunday, Ms. Atkinson and staff members were at a gay pride celebration in Sonoma handing out applications for marriage licenses to prospective newlyweds.
“We’re expecting some very happy couples,” she said. “And a lot of media.”
The selection of Ms. Martin and Ms. Lyon as San Francisco’s first same-sex couple was symbolic; the couple wed here in 2004, when the city broke state law by issuing more than 4,000 marriage licenses and conducting weddings in City Hall. Those marriages were later invalidated by the state Supreme Court.
On May 15, however, the same court struck down the two California laws that prohibited such unions, opening the door for California to becomes the second, and largest, American state to legalize same-sex marriage. Massachusetts did so in 2004, and more than 10,500 couples have wed there.
Same-sex marriage has been hotly contested nationwide and state by state in the courts and at the ballot box, and California is no exception.
Voters in the state will decide a ballot measure in November that would effectively overturn the court’s decision by defining marriage as “between a man and a woman.”
Forty-four states already have some sort of legal barrier — either a law or constitutional amendment — barring such unions. In 2004 alone, 13 states passed ballot measures banning same-sex marriage.
This year, however, supporters have found encouragement in both the California Supreme Court decision and in a subsequent order by Gov. David A. Paterson of New York to force his state agencies to recognize same-sex marriages from elsewhere. The California court has also rebuffed several challenges to its May 15 decision made by two conservative legal groups and Republican attorneys general who fear that the marriages will cause legal challenges to be brought in their own states.
One legal challenge was filed last week by the Liberty Counsel, a group based in Florida that wants the California Court of Appeal to halt the weddings to allow the State Legislature time to work out discrepancies in marriage law created by the state Supreme Court’s decision.
Mathew D. Staver, the founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel, said Monday’s ceremonies “make a mockery of marriage.”
“Marriage has traditionally been known, across continents and all geographical regions, as between a man and a woman,” said Mr. Staver, who is 51 and married. “Marriage between the same sex may be some sort of union, but it’s certainly not marriage.”
There has also been some local opposition to the ceremonies. In rural Kern County, north of Los Angeles, the county clerk has canceled all weddings performed by her office, a position she took after consulting with the Alliance Defense Fund, an Arizona legal group that argues against marriage for gay men and lesbians. Weddings at the county clerk’s office — long an affordable, no-frills option for couples — have also been called off in Butte County, north of Sacramento, the state capital.
In more liberal parts of the state, however, the weddings were being warmly embraced.
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