Friday, May 1, 2009

BJP, Cong may stun SP, BSP; thanks to Gandhis

After three phases of polling, it appears the Congress and the BJP may well be doing better than expected in the key state of Uttar Pradesh with the potential losers being the SP and the BSP.


So has Rahul Gandhi's “go it alone” policy and BJP’s Hindutva slant clicked? Ground reports suggest so. Muslims, having turned their back on the Congress after the Babri demolition, are doing a rethink after Mulayam embraced Kalyan Singh.


The good news for BJP is that Brahmins are tiring of Mayawati's social engineering which has now begun targeting the Muslims.


It was Rahul's idea to walk it alone in the crucial state despite having taken the Samajwadi support during the trust vote. But a bitter SP thinks Rahul's romance with this idea will be shortlived.


There are smiles on BJP faces, having once boasted of big names from the state, the party was groping for a foothold. Now, after three phases of polling, the Hindutva strategy, which was not overplayed except in Pilibhit, may have clicked.


And as the Congress and the BJP prepare for the last two phases, it will be Gandhi versus Gandhi as Rahul and Varun take each other on. The national parties are relying on the same family tree to reap a harvest in Uttar Pradesh.

PM assures Altaf of notice against police

Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has called Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) Quaid Altaf Hussain by phone assuring him of strong note against Karachi police in connection with the negative reporting conducted by police against MQM.

The telephonic talk between Prime Minister Gilani and MQM Quaid Altaf Hussain lasted for over thirty minutes.

Premier said the violence, erupted on recent days in Karachi, was brought under control by the efforts of MQM and lauded his party’s endeavors for establishment and maintenance of peace in the metropolis.

“The positive role, played by MQM to overpower recent social turmoil in Karachi, is utterly commendable”, PM Gilani remarked adding, “MQM’s reservations will be abolished thoroughly”.

MQM Quaid, on the occasion, apprised PM of it’s party’s reservations and negative reporting conducted by some police officials against MQM.

“Land and drug mafia have afflicted terror activities in Karachi”, Altaf Hussain made clear adding, “Police is holding MQM responsible for it.”

Obama, Zardari, Karzai to meet on Wednesday

The White House said the President Barack Obama will meet Wednesday with President Asif Ali Zardari and Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai to discuss their troubled region.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Friday that Obama would meet jointly and separately with the two presidents at the White House. He said Obama looks forward to discussing with them "how we can work together to enhance our cooperation in this important part of the world."

The Karzai and Zardari governments are dealing with Taliban insurgencies in regions of their countries, which share a mountainous border.

US gives Pakistan two weeks to eliminate Taliban

Virtually putting Pakistan on notice, the US has said it is looking for concrete action by the government there to destroy
the Taliban operating out of its territory in the next two weeks before determining its next course of action. This came even as Pakistani forces battled the Taliban for control of a strategic northern valley for a fourth day on Friday, killing up to 60 of militants.

Gen David Petraeus, Commander of US Central Command, has told US officials the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive, Fox News reported. Petraeus made this assessment in talks with lawmakers and Obama administration officials this week, individuals familiar with the discussions said.
“The Pakistanis have run out of excuses” and are “finally getting serious” about combating the threat from Taliban and al-Qaida extremists, the general is reported to have told the officials.

The TV network reported that Petraeus also said wearily that “we’ve heard it all before” from the Pakistanis and he is looking to see concrete action by the government to destroy the Taliban in the next two weeks before determining US’ next course of action.

Pakistani forces battled the Taliban for control of a strategic northern valley for a fourth day, killing up to 60 of them. The militants were still in control of parts of Buner valley, though troops had secured the main town of Daggar on Wednesday after helicopter dropped troops behind enemy lines.

The ground troops have established links with the soldiers airlifted to Daggar, but heavy fighting was going on elsewhere in the valley, military spokesman Major-General Athar Abbas said.

In another district of the region, Upper Dir, over 50 militants stormed the headquarters of a paramilitary force early on Friday and kidnapped 10 of them.

NWFP authorities on Friday opened talks with Sufi Mohammad, an influential cleric of the region who has acted as a go-between with the Taliban, in a renewed effort to stop violence.

Digital campaigning, how effective?

As voting for the General elections reaches final phases after hectic campaigning with political parties heavily relying also on digital technology, the effectiveness of this new penchant is yet to be proven, experts say.

"We can't be certain about how effective this form of campaigning has been because the political parties don't just rely on this medium. They still hold rallies and face to face campaigning, besides the digital form of campaigning," said Rajeeva Karandikar, a psephologist.

Dr Ajay Pal Singh, Psychiatrist, Max Health Care said, "In any human interaction, there are many factors like body language, eye movements that govern the final effect on the listener. So, it becomes much easier to motivate someone when you are face to face with him. The digital medium is impersonal in nature and to convince the audience is not very easy."

While messages from different parties keep on popping continuously into our phone inbox, how much we are motivated and to what extent, determines how effective the message is, according to experts.

"In case of advertisements on TV, we do not have a choice. In case of SMSes popping up every now and then, a sense of irritation is created and unintentionally you start disliking the party or individual," said Dr Singh.

Fast-track courts for Gujarat riot cases

The Supreme Court on Friday refused to transfer the trial of over 10 major post-Godhra riot cases out of Gujarat, but ordered the state government to form six fast-track courts to conduct day-to-day trial in these cases.

The order comes as a reprieve for Chief Minister Narendra Modi, whose alleged role in the 2002 riots is already under a scanner following the April 27 court direction to the special investigation team (SIT).

A bench headed by Justice Arijit Pasayat ordered protection for witnesses and appointment of prosecutors for the trial in consultation with the SIT headed by former CBI Director R.K. Raghavan.

The court vacated its November 2003 stay order and asked the state to appoint experienced lawyers as special public prosecutors. It gave liberty to the SIT to file supplementary chargesheets against the accused on the basis of its probe.

The fast-track courts will be set up in Ahmedabad, Anand, Mehsana and Sabarkantha districts and senior judicial officers would conduct the trials “with utmost expedition” as the trial had already been delayed by seven years. The court requested the Chief Justice of Gujarat High Court to select the judicial officers.

It ordered measures for witness protection so that victims could depose fearlessly. These include safe passage for the witnesses to and from the trial court, security at their residence wherever necessary, and relocation to other states, if needed.

It would be open to the SIT seeking a change of public prosecutors if any deficiency was found and recommending cancellation of bail if necessary.

The order came six years after the National Human Rights Commission filed a plea seeking shifting of the trial in major post-Godhra riot cases arising out of nine incidents during the 2002 riots. These included the Gulbarg Society massacre in which around 70 people, including former Congress MP Ehsan Jaffri, were killed.

The other cases related to the Godhra train case, the Gulbarg massacre, the Naroda Gam and Naroda Patiya massacres and the Sardarpura and Ode killings.

Pakistani troops move against Taliban militants

Soldiers sent to halt a Taliban advance toward the Pakistani capital fought their way over a mountain pass Thursday, killed at least 14 militants and narrowly escaped a wave of suicide car bombers, the army said.

Troops ousted militants from the Ambela Pass leading over the mountains into Buner and were inching toward the north, army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said.


Soldiers opened fire on four suspected suicide car bombers who drove toward them near the pass, Abbas said. Two vehicles exploded and the other two managed to drive away. No troops were hurt, he said.

Troops also destroyed four militant vehicles in Dir, a nearby district to the west, Abbas said. In all, at least 14 militants were killed and one soldier was wounded in the previous 24 hours, he said.

Abbas also said militants, who have kidnapped dozens of lightly armed police and paramilitary troops, burned a police station farther north and sealed off the town of Sultanwas.


"The people of Sultanwas are in great distress," Abbas said at a news conference. "Nobody is being allowed to move out of Sultanwas."

Security forces backed by artillery and warplanes began pushing into Buner, a district just 60 miles from Islamabad, on Tuesday after Taliban militants from the neighboring Swat Valley muscled into the area under cover of a peace pact.

Abbas said militants killed a police officer and threw his body into a river in Swat, but he said the peace deal centered on the valley remained intact.

A spokesman for the Taliban in Swat insisted it was sticking to the peace process. The militants in Buner were all local Taliban, said the spokesman, Muslim Khan.

"They are our friends and they have not suffered any big losses so far," Khan said.

Duroville mobile home park will not close

After seven years of litigation, a federal judge Thursday refused to close the Duroville mobile home park, saying it would result in a "major humanitarian crisis" for thousands of poor farmworkers with no place else to go.

"To close the park under current conditions would create one of the largest forced human migrations in the history of this state," said U.S. District Judge Stephen G. Larson. "Unlike another forced migration in this state's history -- the internment of [Japanese Americans] during World War II -- there is not even a Manzanar for these residents to go."
Larson then appointed Tom Flynn, manager of the Thermal park, as receiver for the next two years with orders to make major repairs and encourage residents to move to safer, affordable housing elsewhere.

"Relocation of park residents must proceed with all deliberate speed," he said.

The U.S. government and the Bureau of Indian Affairs wanted the 40-acre park, located on the Torres Martinez Indian Reservation, shut down.


In closing arguments Thursday, Assistant U.S. Atty. Leon Weidman said leaking sewage, 800 feral dogs, piles of debris and fire hazards made Duroville a deadly threat to its roughly 5,000 tenants. The cost of bringing it into compliance, he said, would exceed $4.3 million, which park revenues could never cover.

"There is only one solution and that is to close the park down," he said.

Chandra Gehri Spencer, an attorney representing the tenants, said closure would drive thousands into even worse housing conditions. It would also result in the loss of an entire village of Purepechas, an indigenous people from Mexico, she said. There are about 2,000 Purepechas in Duroville.

"The stress of relocation would be profound," said Spencer, who mounted a vigorous and effective defense throughout the trial. "The county would have to absorb more than 4,000 people."

Larson agreed that the park was neither safe nor healthy, but criticized the government for offering no alternative housing plan and the Bureau of Indian Affairs for its attitude toward park owner Harvey Duro.

He said the bureau refused to grant Duro a lease, never told him how to bring the park into code compliance and adopted a "prosecutorial demeanor" that indicated a genuine animus toward him.

"They did little to offer Mr. Duro any assistance, even when it was helpful to the health and safety of the park residents," the judge said. "Of greater concern was the [bureau] superintendent's complete lack of understanding of the criteria necessary for the approval of a lease."

One of the government's primary complaints against Duro was his failure to get a bureau-approved lease for the 10-year-old park. The defense said he never had a fair chance.

Duro didn't get off lightly.

"Not only did Mr. Duro violate the law -- it was knowing and willful," Larson said. "It is clear from his demeanor and testimony that he ignored the regulations."

Last year, the judge removed Duro, a member of the Torres Martinez tribe, from any management role at the park and stopped his $7,000 monthly salary. Larson restored some of that Thursday, ordering that Duro receive $2,000 a month.

Ultimately, Larson's decision came down to the tenants.

Throughout the proceedings, he had practically begged someone to come forward with a plan to house park residents, many of whom earn less than $10,000 a year.

Plans for a new low-income trailer park in Riverside County came with questions about funding and whether illegal immigrants, who make up a large percentage of Duroville, were eligible.

Larson took the unusual step of personally inspecting the park. He did it once with a full entourage of U.S. Marshals and another time largely on his own.

"Duroville is not a business, it is a village that thousands of human beings call home," he said. "They are poor, undereducated, disenfranchised and, in many respects, exploited. . . . These very same people, based on the evidence at trial, are an honest, hardworking, proud, colorful and family-oriented community of people committed to educating their children and raising them to be productive and successful members of our society."

Reaction to the ruling was swift.

Thom Mrozek, spokesman for the U.S. attorney's office, said the park wasn't closed but Larson had encouraged tenants to leave.

"He also said in no uncertain terms that it was Harvey Duro's fault," Mrozek said.

Bishop Gerald Barnes, head of the Catholic Diocese of San Bernardino, hailed the decision for sparing "thousands of people already living on limited means the terrible burden of being homeless during a depressed economy."

Sister Gabriella Williams, a nun who works in the park, was beaming.

"It's so wonderful. I am just delighted," she said. "God keeps all the poor in his heart, and we should keep them in our hearts as well

As Fears Grow Over Pakistani President, U.S. Seeks Out Rival

As American confidence in the Pakistani government wanes, the Obama administration is reaching out more directly than before to Nawaz Sharif, the chief rival of Asif Ali Zardari, the Pakistani president, administration officials said Friday.

PakistanAmerican officials have long held Mr. Sharif at arm’s length because of his close ties to Islamists in Pakistan, but some Obama administration officials now say those ties could be useful in helping Mr. Zardari’s government to confront the stiffening challenge by Taliban insurgents.

The move reflects the heightened concern in the Obama administration about the survivability of the Zardari government. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of the United States Central Command, has said in private meetings in Washington that the stability of Pakistan’s government could be critically tested in coming weeks, according to administration and Congressional officials.

General Petraeus is among those expected to attend an all-day meeting on Saturday with senior administration officials to discuss the next steps in Afghanistan and Pakistan, in advance of high-level sessions next week in Washington, when Mr. Zardari and President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan will meet with Mr. Obama at the White House.

Washington has a bad history of trying to engineer domestic Pakistani politics, and no one in the administration is trying to broker an actual power-sharing agreement between Mr. Zardari and Mr. Sharif, administration officials say. But they say that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Richard C. Holbrooke, the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, have both urged Mr. Zardari and Mr. Sharif to look for ways to work together, seeking to capitalize on Mr. Sharif’s appeal among the country’s Islamist groups.

That could be a tall order, given the intense animosity between the two men, not to mention the ambivalence that many American officials still have toward Mr. Sharif, a former prime minister who was overthrown in a military coup in 1999.

But Obama administration officials have been upfront in expressing dissatisfaction with the response shown by Mr. Zardari’s government to increasing attacks by Taliban fighters and insurgests with Al Qaeda in the country’s tribal areas, and along its western border with Afghanistan. During a news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Obama said he was “gravely concerned” about the stability of the Pakistani government; on Friday, a Defense Department official described Mr. Zardari as “very, very weak.”

The official said the administration wanted to broker an agreement not so much to buoy Mr. Zardari personally, but to accomplish what the administration believes Pakistan must do. “The idea here is to tie Sharif’s popularity to things we think need to be done, like dealing with the militancy,” said the official, who insisted on anonymity to speak more candidly about American differences with Pakistan’s government.

Both Mr. Holbrooke and Mrs. Clinton have spoken with Mr. Sharif by telephone in the past month, and have urged Mr. Zardari’s increasingly unpopular government to work closely with Mr. Sharif, administration officials said.

“We told them they’re facing a national challenge, and for that, you need bipartisanship,” a senior administration official said. “The president’s popularity is in the low double digits. Nawaz Sharif is at 83 percent. They need to band together against the militants.”

Some Pakistani officials say that the deteriorating circumstances in the country have already led some members of Mr. Zardari’s government to reach out to Mr. Sharif. According to one Pakistani official, the government in Islamabad recently asked Mr. Sharif to rejoin the governing coalition. The two tried power-sharing last year, and that dissolved in acrimony only a week after Mr. Sharif and Mr. Zardari had banded together to force the resignation of President Pervez Musharraf.

Sir Mark Lyall Grant, director of political affairs at the British Foreign Office, was in Washington on Monday for talks with Mr. Holbrooke and Mrs. Clinton on how to move forward on Pakistan, according to American and European officials. The three discussed Mr. Sharif, but no conclusions were reached, a European official said.

“There’s certainly no agreement that Nawaz should become Zardari’s prime minister,” the official said, speaking on grounds of anonymity. He said the enmity between the two would make such a situation impossible. But, he added: “We need people who have influence over the militancy in Pakistan to calm it down. Who’s got influence? The army, yes. And Nawaz, yes.”

The Obama administration’s contemplation of a closer alliance with Mr. Sharif was first reported in The Wall Street Journal last week. Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, said that Mr. Zardari was open to talking to Mr. Sharif. “The president and prime minister of Pakistan have been striving for national consensus and continue to be in close contact with the leadership of all political parties.”

Among previous American efforts to broker agreements in Pakistan, the Bush administration struggled in 2007 to find a way to keep Mr. Musharraf in power amid a deepening political crisis. The administration prodded him to to share authority with his longtime rival, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, as a way of broadening his base, but those efforts ended after Mrs. Bhutto — the wife of Mr. Zardari —was shot and killed after a rally in Rawalpindi. The situation in Pakistan has become so dire in recent weeks, with the increasingly fragile government battling Taliban insurgents who have gotten increasingly close to Islamabad, that both American and Pakistani officials are looking hard for any possible way to bring stability to the nuclear-armed nation.

“For the United States, there’s no ambiguity about where the danger lies; it’s in the people who are attacking the state,” said Teresita C. Schaffer, a Pakistani expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. She said Mr. Sharif could broaden the appeal of the Zardari government, and his ties to Islamist militants give him added heft right now. “So the U.S. would dearly love to see both of those parties on the same page.”

Couple caught having sex on Queen's lawn

Tourists enjoying a day of sightseeing at Windsor Castle got more than they bargained for today when a couple were caught having sex on the Queen's lawn.

Ignoring signs asking visitors to Please Keep Off The Grass, the man and woman, said to be in their early 30, selected a spot near the castle's Garter Tower and stripped off in full view of hotels, pubs and shops.

An employee at the Harte and Garter Hotel, which overlooks the castle, said guests went out to observe the scene and could not believe their eyes. The woman, who asked not to be named, said: "People were shouting things like 'what are you doing?' but the couple didn't seem to care at all. It was going on for about 10 or 15 minutes, which is quite a long time, considering the location."

Another witness, Mark Robinson, 44, said the couple carried on until police intervened. He said: "The officers told them to stop and the sight of the uniforms seemed to snap them out of it. They were unsteady on their feet and the guy pulled his trousers up and helped the girl put hers back on.

"The Japanese tourists were comparing their videos."

A spokesman from Thames Valley police confirmed that two people had been arrested and cautioned for outraging public decency. It is not known whether the Queen was in residence at Windsor Castle at the time.
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Gordon Brown's terrible week exposes lack of a loyal bruiser

Prime ministers are famously supposed to be able to chew gum and walk at the same time, but when you are flying over the Hindu Kush pondering the world's most fragile democracy and the fate of 8,000 British soldiers fighting in Helmand, it is hard to focus on a Lib Dem opposition supply day in the Commons.

While Gordon Brown was over the border region of Pakistan and Afghanistan on Monday, the seeds of a terrible week were being sown at home, as the government blundered towards defeat in a vote over the rights of Gurkhas to settle in Britain. Twenty-seven Labour MPs rebelled, dozens more abstained, an emergency statement followed and the sense prevailed that Brown's authority had been critically undermined.

Miserable comparisons were made to the last days of John Major's premiership and historians noted the first government defeat in an opposition day debate since James Callaghan in 1978. A day later came further dispiriting climbdowns over MPs' expenses as the week of misjudgments dragged on.

"There should have been a figure back in London sorting this out," said one minister involved in the setback.

It was obvious from Monday that Labour was likely to lose the vote on the Gurkhas. It had taken more than six months to get a decision out of Whitehall on what to do, ever since a court ruled in September that the government had not been fair to veterans whose cases had been settled before 1997. The delay was largely because the Ministry of Defence did not have any money to pay the potential pension costs, but also because no one gripped the issue at the centre.

One whip said: "We thought two staged concessions, one to Martin Salter, and the other to George Howarth [both Labour MPs], might be enough to turn it round. But there were a group of MPs that were not listening. What is worrying is that the rebels and abstainers were not the usual suspects.

"We tried everything, but we were very despondent afterwards, saying the MPs were blind to argument. Some of them may have been cross about their second home allowance, but most of them just thought we had mishandled it. We could not get our message across."

A minister said: "One problem is that Gordon at prime minister's questions said this would cost a lot of money, but he did not say the next bit, which is that we have not got any money."

A senior minister stood back and looked at the wider lessons of Brown's first defeat of his premiership: "It's a ­cliche, but every government needs a John Prescott, or in Thatcher's case, a Willie Whitelaw, an enforcer.

"Brown needs someone to pull it all together. The obvious candidate is Ed Balls because he knows Gordon's mind, or perhaps Alan Johnson. Harriet Harman cannot do it because she is overstretched as it is. Jack Straw might have done it, but he seems to have lost his way, after the bill of rights proposals got shot down by the rest of the cabinet."

Someone like a Prescott might have questioned the wisdom of trying to ­handle the MPs' expenses issue by unveiling an initiative in a YouTube video. Faced by an increasingly strident rightwing press, it is easy to see why communications gurus favour bypassing papers such as the Daily Mail.

Brown presumably believed he was speaking to a youthful, disenchanted public, on one of the few issues that genuinely engages and infuriates them. But after he had made his first excruciating grin to camera, a good adviser would probably have put his hand over the lens, shouted "cut" and then binned the idea. "Come back Damian McBride, all is forgiven," say some, not wholly in jest.

Sometimes the medium can become the message and, ironically in the case of the supposed dinosaur Prescott, videos have worked unexpectedly well. But Brown had learnt early in his premiership to be authentically grave and his advisers have to stick to that. Even Downing Street's new speech writer, Michael Lea from the Daily Mail, will have to match his metaphors to the man.

But Brown's bigger worry came in the lethal criticism from the former home secretary David Blunkett that Labour had a void where its domestic policy should be. "Of course we will be judged by what we have done in terms of dealing with the economic crisis. But we will actually be judged on our vision for the next 10 to 15 years," he said yesterday.

The bulk of Blunkett's speech was an attempt to fill that void with his version of community-localised politics. Many will disagree with his specific proposals, but there are many Labour MPs like Blunkett, worried that Brown's natural instinct and knowledge of economics lead him to neglect the nexus of social, moral and domestic policy issues on which elections are traditionally fought.

Another minister notes the lack of a centrally driven strategy from No 10 to get the government's message out and tell voters in a concerted way what Labour stands for and where it wants to go. "Ministers in their departments are pushing out their stuff, working in their policy bubble, but there is little attempt to pull it together from the prime minister," the minister said.

"What we lack is determination, willpower and organisation," said one cabinet minister.

"He is good at economics, but not politics," said a Labour select committee chairman.

Another former minister argued: "The public will not thank us for what we have done in the past but on whether they judge we have any gas in the tank and some coherent ideas for the future."

No 10 replies that last week it pushed out big policies on an equality bill, the future of primary education through the Rose review, and fresh ideas about community crime prosecutors. But these stories were drowned out by defeats in parliament, rebellious former ministers and the threat of a flu pandemic.

Apart from yet another rethink inside Downing Street, there is no sign of an attempt to push the prime minister out. Only Frank Field, brilliant, but alone, openly calls for Brown to be toppled after the European elections in June.

Backbenchers would be unlikely to be goaded into revolt even if the party came third behind the Lib Dems in terms of the share of the vote or saw its vote drop below 25%. Most people feel they have been through that process last summer and, in the words of David Cameron, the party has made its strategic choice.

Cabinet ministers who are hardly supporters of Brown have this week been moved to near sympathy. One said: "Backbenchers keep kicking the shit out of Gordon and then wondering out loud why he appears damaged."

Another described the parliamentary Labour party as having gone "la la". Brown was the first PM to attempt to reform the expenses system. He said: "You could post a video on YouTube and announce you were giving them £10,000 each and they would still be unhappy." This cabinet minister, however, drew a line at stepping up to advise Brown.

Some ministers still insist that it is the recession alone that will determine the next general election. The stockmarket, looking at consumer confidence, may be enjoying a frisky spring but, in the real economy the news remains dire. Yet, if Brown can point to an upturn by late winter, the fate of 1,000 Gurkhas, and the second home allowance, will fade into a distant memory.

Hong Kong 'flu' hotel sealed off

About 300 people at a Hong Kong hotel have been placed under quarantine after a guest there became China's first confirmed swine flu case.

The 25-year-old man, who is now in hospital after testing positive for the virus, had travelled from Mexico via Shanghai, Hong Kong's leader said.

Local TV footage showed police wearing masks guarding the hotel exits.

Meanwhile, the UK joined Canada, Spain, Germany and the US in reporting person-to-person transmission of the virus.

On Friday, French Health Minister Roselyne Bachelot said two people were infected with swine flu, France's first confirmed cases.

South Korea has also confirmed its first case, local media said - a 51-year-old woman who has recently returned from Mexico.

The announcements take to 16 the number of countries where swine flu has been confirmed.

Mexico, where the outbreak began, has shut down parts of its economy for five days in a bid to curb the virus's progress.

Mexican officials say the spread of swine flu - suspected in more than 160 deaths - is slowing.

International experts are more cautious - but one, Nancy Cox, chief of America's Center for Disease Control's influenza division, said the new virus lacked the traits that made the 1918 pandemic so deadly.

"We do not see the markers for virulence that were seen in the 1918 virus," she said.

'No panic'

In cases outside Mexico the effects of the virus do not appear to be severe, although one death of a Mexican child has been confirmed in the US.

The WHO has set its pandemic alert level at five - but says it has no immediate plans to move to the highest level of six.

In Hong Kong, the authorities have raised the alert level to emergency but urged residents to carry on life as normal.

CONFIRMED CASES
Mexico: 168 suspected deaths - 15 confirmed
US: One death, at least 109 confirmed cases
New Zealand: 4 confirmed, 12 probable cases
Canada: 35 confirmed cases
UK: 11 confirmed cases
Spain: 13 confirmed cases
Germany: 4 confirmed cases
France: 2 confirmed cases
Israel, Costa Rica: 2 confirmed cases each
The Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Hong Kong, South Korea: 1 confirmed case each

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Countries with confirmed cases of secondary transmission
US
Canada
Spain
Germany
UK


Mapping the outbreak
Mexico: First swine flu cases
Border town not slowing down
Price hikes in Mexico amid flu panic
"I assure you the Hong Kong government will try its best to conquer the virus," Chief Executive Donald Tsang said.

"I stress we don't need to panic."

The Mexican man is said to be in a stable condition in Hong Kong's Princess Margaret Hospital, after seeking treatment on Thursday night after becoming unwell.

The Metropark Hotel in Wanchai district where he briefly stayed will be sealed off for seven days, health officials said, and the antiviral drug Tamiflu given to about 200 guests and 100 staff there.

Medical staff wearing protective clothing were seen carrying boxes of equipment into the building.

Efforts are also under way to trace people who travelled on the same flights as the Mexican, and taxi drivers with whom he came into contact.

BBC China Editor Shirong Chen says confirmation that the man has tested positive for the virus has set alarm bells ringing beyond Hong Kong.

Chinese Health Minister Chen Zhu said the virus was very likely to enter mainland China and urged the country to prepare for an outbreak, as millions start travelling over the May Day long weekend.

In South Korea, a 51-year-old woman who had recently returned from Mexico was confirmed as the country's first case, Yonhap news agency reported.

Two other people are being tested for the virus, the agency said.

Schools closed

Meanwhile, the authorities in Mexico hope a nationwide shut-down ordered from Friday, covering two public holidays and a weekend, will help curb the spread of the virus.


SYMPTOMS - WHAT TO DO
Swine flu symptoms are similar to those produced by ordinary seasonal flu - fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, chills and fatigue
If you have flu symptoms and recently visited affected areas of Mexico, you should seek medical advice
If you suspect you are infected, you should stay at home and take advice by telephone initially, in order to minimise the risk of infection



Some factories will stop production and schools are already closed. Residents have been urged to stay at home, but it is not clear how widely the shut-down order will be followed.

The number of confirmed cases of swine flu infection in Mexico now stands at more than 300, officials say.

Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said on Friday that three more deaths from swine flu had been confirmed, bringing the toll to 15.

Announcing the figure, Mr Cordova said that new cases of the virus were levelling off.

But Dr Keiji Fukuda, acting assistant director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), said fluctuations were to be expected.

In other developments:

• The US announces that it will buy 13 million new courses of antiviral treatment and send 400,000 of them to Mexico

• A flight from Germany to Washington DC is diverted to Boston after a female passenger complains of flu-like symptoms

• An aide to US Energy Secretary Stephen Chu who helped arrange President Barack Obama's recent trip to Mexico is being tested for swine flu, although the aide is said not to have been in contact with the president

• The head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it is fine for people without flu symptoms to fly and use the subway, a day after Vice-President Joe Biden said he would advise his own family members against using public transport

• Denmark reports its first confirmed case of swine flu

• German authorities confirm that a nurse who treated a patient with swine flu also contracted the disease, in the first person-to-person transmission in the country

• Test results confirm the UK's first person-to-person transmission of swine flu, in a friend of a couple from Scotland who were first in the country to be diagnosed with the virus

Several countries have restricted travel to Mexico and many tour operators have cancelled holidays.

The WHO, meanwhile, says it will now call the virus influenza A (H1N1) rather than swine flu - which it says is misleading as pork meat is safe and the virus is being transmitted from human to human