U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Wednesday that dealing with the current global food crisis is a fight the international community cannot afford to lose. The U.N. chief is attending a world food security summit at the Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. For VOA, Sabina Castelfranco reports.
Ban Ki-moon, right, and FAO Director General Jacques Diouf meet journalists at UN food crisis summit in Rome, 04 Jun 2008
The United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appealed to the international community to move ahead collectively and with a sense of urgency to combat world hunger and promote global good security.
"This is a fight we cannot afford to lose," Mr. Ban said. "The enemy is hunger. Hunger degrades everything we have been fighting for in recent years and decades. Recent riots and protests show that hunger and the threat of hunger breed unrest and instability. We are duty bound to act, to act now, and to act as one."
Ban Ki-Moon said $15 to $20 billion is needed each year to boost food production to combat hunger. He added that most of that money would have to come from concerned countries.
The U.N. chief is attending a world food security summit in Rome hosted by the Food and Agriculture Organization. Over 4,000 representatives from more than 180 countries are attending the summit.
Delegates at the summit in Rome have been divided over the role bio-fuels is playing in driving up food prices to the point of provoking riots in some countries.
"I think that there is an urgent need to establish a greater degree of international consensus and agreed policy guidelines on bio-fuel production, which take full account of food security, income and energy needs at all levels of our countries," Mr. Ban said.
Meanwhile, the head of the U.N.'s World Food Program, Josette Sheeran, said an extra $1.2 billion in donated funds will provide food for 75 million people going hungry because of soaring food prices. Sheeran, who is also attending the Rome summit, said many people in poor countries simply cannot buy the food available in markets.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Obama Clinches Democratic Nomination
With Senator Barack Obama crossing the threshold of delegates he needed to claim the Democratic presidential nomination on Tuesday evening, party leaders began to move on Wednesday to bring their lengthy primary battle to a close and unite the party, even as questions swirled about Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s next move.
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Clinton Donor Base Is Obama’s Next Prize (June 4, 2008)
Clinton Discusses What She Wants, but Not What She Will Do (June 4, 2008)
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Four top Democratic leaders on Wednesday morning asked all uncommitted superdelegates to make their preferences known by Friday. While they did not formally endorse Mr. Obama or urge Mrs. Clinton to exit the race, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senator Harry Reid and West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin said in a joint statement: “Democrats must now turn our full attention to the general election.” They added that the party needed to “stand united and begin our march toward reversing the eight years of failed Bush/McCain policies that have weakened our country.”
But Mrs. Clinton’s top aides on Wednesday morning continued to sidestep questions about when she would suspend her campaign, even as some of her supporters began ratcheting up pressure on Mr. Obama to take her on as his running mate.
Robert L. Johnson, a prominent Clinton-backer and the founder of Black Entertainment Television, said Wednesday on CNN’s “American Morning” that he planned to enlist members of the Congressional Black Caucus to push Mr. Obama to accept Mrs. Clinton as his vice presidential nominee, adding that Mrs. Clinton had not directed his efforts but was aware of them.
Mr. Johnson argued that an Obama-Clinton ticket would have the best chance of winning in the general election and would help unify the Democratic Party.
Lanny Davis, an aide in the Clinton White House, said he was circulating a petition asking Mr. Obama to pick Mrs. Clinton as his running mate. Mr. Davis said he was acting on his own.
Later, however, Terry McAuliffe, the Clinton campaign chairman, insisted on CNN that there had been “absolutely zero discussions” about whether she would accept a vice presidential nod. Mr. McAuliffe said Mrs. Clinton wanted to talk things over with her supporters on Wednesday.
“There is plenty of time,” Mr. McAuliffe said, continuing to argue that she had won the popular vote, a notion disputed by the Obama campaign.
Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton talked early Wednesday morning by telephone. He congratulated her and renewed his offer to “sit down when it makes sense for you,” according to a spokesman for Mr. Obama, Robert Gibbs. Mrs. Clinton responded positively, Mr. Gibbs said, but added there were no immediate plans to meet on Wednesday.
Attention is focused at this point on the delicate dance between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton, a relationship that has been rife throughout this primary battle with complicated tensions.
On a conference call with members of the New York Congressional delegation on Tuesday, Mrs. Clinton was asked whether she would be open to joining a ticket with Mr. Obama. She replied that she would do whatever she could — including a vice-presidential bid — to help Democrats win the White House.
Representative Nydia M. Velázquez, Democrat of New York, asked Mrs. Clinton whether she would consider teaming up with Mr. Obama. “She said that if it’s offered, she would take it,” Ms. Velázquez said later in an interview. A last-minute rush of Democratic superdelegates, as well as the results from the final primaries, in Montana and South Dakota, pushed Mr. Obama over the threshold of winning the 2,118 delegates needed to be nominated at the party’s convention in August. The victory for Mr. Obama, the son of a black Kenyan father and a white Kansan mother, broke racial barriers and represented a remarkable rise for a man who just four years ago served in the Illinois Senate.
“Tonight, we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another — a journey that will bring a new and better day to America,” Mr. Obama told supporters at a rally in St. Paul. “Because of you, tonight I can stand here and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America.”
Mrs. Clinton’s speech to supporters in New York City that was more defiant than conciliatory. She paid tribute to Mr. Obama, but she did not leave the race. She again presented her case that she was the stronger candidate and argued that she had garnered the most votes, a debatable contention that is disputed by the Obama campaign.
“I want the nearly 18 million Americans who voted for me to be respected,” Mrs. Clinton told supporters. But she paid homage to Mr. Obama’s accomplishments, saying, “It has been an honor to contest the primaries with him, just as it is an honor to call him my friend.”
Mr. Obama’s victory moved the presidential campaign to a new phase as he tangled with Senator John McCain of Arizona in televised addresses Tuesday night over Mr. Obama’s assertion that Mr. McCain would carry on President Bush’s policies. Mr. McCain vigorously rebuffed that criticism in a speech in Kenner, La., in which he distanced himself from the departing president while contrasting his own breadth of experience with Mr. Obama’s record.
“The American people didn’t get to know me yesterday, as they are just getting to know Senator Obama,” Mr. McCain told supporters.
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The Caucus: The Superdelegate Tally (June 3, 2008)
Clinton Donor Base Is Obama’s Next Prize (June 4, 2008)
Clinton Discusses What She Wants, but Not What She Will Do (June 4, 2008)
The TV Watch: The Primary Season’s Final Debate (June 4, 2008)
McCain Distances Himself From Bush and Jabs Obama (June 4, 2008)
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Four top Democratic leaders on Wednesday morning asked all uncommitted superdelegates to make their preferences known by Friday. While they did not formally endorse Mr. Obama or urge Mrs. Clinton to exit the race, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senator Harry Reid and West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin said in a joint statement: “Democrats must now turn our full attention to the general election.” They added that the party needed to “stand united and begin our march toward reversing the eight years of failed Bush/McCain policies that have weakened our country.”
But Mrs. Clinton’s top aides on Wednesday morning continued to sidestep questions about when she would suspend her campaign, even as some of her supporters began ratcheting up pressure on Mr. Obama to take her on as his running mate.
Robert L. Johnson, a prominent Clinton-backer and the founder of Black Entertainment Television, said Wednesday on CNN’s “American Morning” that he planned to enlist members of the Congressional Black Caucus to push Mr. Obama to accept Mrs. Clinton as his vice presidential nominee, adding that Mrs. Clinton had not directed his efforts but was aware of them.
Mr. Johnson argued that an Obama-Clinton ticket would have the best chance of winning in the general election and would help unify the Democratic Party.
Lanny Davis, an aide in the Clinton White House, said he was circulating a petition asking Mr. Obama to pick Mrs. Clinton as his running mate. Mr. Davis said he was acting on his own.
Later, however, Terry McAuliffe, the Clinton campaign chairman, insisted on CNN that there had been “absolutely zero discussions” about whether she would accept a vice presidential nod. Mr. McAuliffe said Mrs. Clinton wanted to talk things over with her supporters on Wednesday.
“There is plenty of time,” Mr. McAuliffe said, continuing to argue that she had won the popular vote, a notion disputed by the Obama campaign.
Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton talked early Wednesday morning by telephone. He congratulated her and renewed his offer to “sit down when it makes sense for you,” according to a spokesman for Mr. Obama, Robert Gibbs. Mrs. Clinton responded positively, Mr. Gibbs said, but added there were no immediate plans to meet on Wednesday.
Attention is focused at this point on the delicate dance between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton, a relationship that has been rife throughout this primary battle with complicated tensions.
On a conference call with members of the New York Congressional delegation on Tuesday, Mrs. Clinton was asked whether she would be open to joining a ticket with Mr. Obama. She replied that she would do whatever she could — including a vice-presidential bid — to help Democrats win the White House.
Representative Nydia M. Velázquez, Democrat of New York, asked Mrs. Clinton whether she would consider teaming up with Mr. Obama. “She said that if it’s offered, she would take it,” Ms. Velázquez said later in an interview. A last-minute rush of Democratic superdelegates, as well as the results from the final primaries, in Montana and South Dakota, pushed Mr. Obama over the threshold of winning the 2,118 delegates needed to be nominated at the party’s convention in August. The victory for Mr. Obama, the son of a black Kenyan father and a white Kansan mother, broke racial barriers and represented a remarkable rise for a man who just four years ago served in the Illinois Senate.
“Tonight, we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another — a journey that will bring a new and better day to America,” Mr. Obama told supporters at a rally in St. Paul. “Because of you, tonight I can stand here and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America.”
Mrs. Clinton’s speech to supporters in New York City that was more defiant than conciliatory. She paid tribute to Mr. Obama, but she did not leave the race. She again presented her case that she was the stronger candidate and argued that she had garnered the most votes, a debatable contention that is disputed by the Obama campaign.
“I want the nearly 18 million Americans who voted for me to be respected,” Mrs. Clinton told supporters. But she paid homage to Mr. Obama’s accomplishments, saying, “It has been an honor to contest the primaries with him, just as it is an honor to call him my friend.”
Mr. Obama’s victory moved the presidential campaign to a new phase as he tangled with Senator John McCain of Arizona in televised addresses Tuesday night over Mr. Obama’s assertion that Mr. McCain would carry on President Bush’s policies. Mr. McCain vigorously rebuffed that criticism in a speech in Kenner, La., in which he distanced himself from the departing president while contrasting his own breadth of experience with Mr. Obama’s record.
“The American people didn’t get to know me yesterday, as they are just getting to know Senator Obama,” Mr. McCain told supporters.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Yahoo opposed Google deal before Microsoft bid
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Yahoo Inc executives dismissed a search-advertising deal with Google due to antitrust concerns, one day before Microsoft Corp made its takeover offer earlier this year, according to court documents made public on Monday.
The position came to light in a complaint filed by attorneys representing two Michigan pension funds in a shareholder lawsuit that aims to revoke Yahoo takeover defenses and press the company to renew merger talks with Microsoft.
"We are focused on long-term value creation rather than short-term gains," said a Yahoo document prepared for Yahoo executives ahead of an "all hands" internal meeting on January 30 -- the day before Microsoft made its merger offer.
Bracing for employee questions over whether Yahoo should outsource its search-ad sales to Google, executives were prepared to argue that any short-term gains would derail Yahoo's long-term push to become a "must buy" for advertisers.
"Short-term analysis of the revenue potential of outsourcing monetization may not take into account the longer term impact on the competitive market if search becomes an effective monopoly," an excerpt from the company document said. Monetization refers to sales of search-related ads.
These comments appear to contrast with Yahoo's subsequent position when it announced on April 9 that it was conducting a test with rival Google, the market leader in Web search and related advertising, to rely on Google to sell its search ads.
TURNABOUT
The turnabout was part of a strategy by Yahoo management to seek alternatives for its business instead of settling for Microsoft's cash-and-stock offer at $31 per share, which the company's board had rejected as undervaluing Yahoo's assets.
The position came to light in a complaint filed by attorneys representing two Michigan pension funds in a shareholder lawsuit that aims to revoke Yahoo takeover defenses and press the company to renew merger talks with Microsoft.
"We are focused on long-term value creation rather than short-term gains," said a Yahoo document prepared for Yahoo executives ahead of an "all hands" internal meeting on January 30 -- the day before Microsoft made its merger offer.
Bracing for employee questions over whether Yahoo should outsource its search-ad sales to Google, executives were prepared to argue that any short-term gains would derail Yahoo's long-term push to become a "must buy" for advertisers.
"Short-term analysis of the revenue potential of outsourcing monetization may not take into account the longer term impact on the competitive market if search becomes an effective monopoly," an excerpt from the company document said. Monetization refers to sales of search-related ads.
These comments appear to contrast with Yahoo's subsequent position when it announced on April 9 that it was conducting a test with rival Google, the market leader in Web search and related advertising, to rely on Google to sell its search ads.
TURNABOUT
The turnabout was part of a strategy by Yahoo management to seek alternatives for its business instead of settling for Microsoft's cash-and-stock offer at $31 per share, which the company's board had rejected as undervaluing Yahoo's assets.
India cbank to let oil firms hedge imports offshore
< The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday said it would allow Indian oil firms to hedge crude imports on overseas exchanges, and increased the limit on firms' investments in the overseas energy and natural resources sectors.
The central bank said domestic refining companies would be able to hedge their anticipated crude oil in overseas exchanges and markets, with a limit of up to 50 percent of the volume of actual imports in the previous year or 50 percent of the average volume of the past three fiscal years, whichever was higher.
The central bank also said it would allow domestic crude oil refining companies to hedge their price risk on domestic purchases of crude oil and sales of petroleum products on the basis of underlying contracts linked to international prices on overseas exchanges or markets.
In a separate notification, the central bank said companies would be allowed to invest abroad in excess of 400 percent of their net worth, as on the date of their last audited balance sheet, in the energy and natural resources sector.
Such investments would require prior approval from the central bank. Further, Indian entities could invest up to 400 percent of their net worth in overseas unincorporated entities in the oil sector, with prior approval of the RBI. Previously, only certain public sector companies were able to make such investments.
The central bank said domestic refining companies would be able to hedge their anticipated crude oil in overseas exchanges and markets, with a limit of up to 50 percent of the volume of actual imports in the previous year or 50 percent of the average volume of the past three fiscal years, whichever was higher.
The central bank also said it would allow domestic crude oil refining companies to hedge their price risk on domestic purchases of crude oil and sales of petroleum products on the basis of underlying contracts linked to international prices on overseas exchanges or markets.
In a separate notification, the central bank said companies would be allowed to invest abroad in excess of 400 percent of their net worth, as on the date of their last audited balance sheet, in the energy and natural resources sector.
Such investments would require prior approval from the central bank. Further, Indian entities could invest up to 400 percent of their net worth in overseas unincorporated entities in the oil sector, with prior approval of the RBI. Previously, only certain public sector companies were able to make such investments.
Clinton preparing graceful exit?
After a day full of conflicting signals, Hillary Clinton's campaign seems to be sending clearer ones today -- that she will gracefully exit the stage and won't take her fight to the convention.
The Associated Press is reporting that she plans to acknowledge in her speech tonight that Barack Obama has the delegates for the nomination. The AP is also saying advisers have said that Clinton has made a strategic decision to suspend her campaign and not formally end it, giving her leverage to negotiate with Obama on various matters including a possible vice presidential nomination for her. She also wants to press him on issues he should focus on in the fall, such as health care.
The Clinton campaign, however, is denying the AP report. "The AP story is incorrect. Senator Clinton will not concede the nomination this evening," the statement said.
Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe did say this morning that once Obama reaches the majority of delegates, "I think Hillary Clinton will congratulate him and call him the nominee."
McAuliffe had been among those as late as Monday excoriating the Democratic National Committee rules committee's decision on the disputed Florida and Michigan delegates and reserving the right to appeal the ruling.
But on NBC's "Today" show this morning, he said, "I don't think she's going to go to the credentials committee."
And the New York Times reported today that Clinton is prepared to give what aides are calling a farewell speech tonight summing up her candidacy.
The Associated Press is reporting that she plans to acknowledge in her speech tonight that Barack Obama has the delegates for the nomination. The AP is also saying advisers have said that Clinton has made a strategic decision to suspend her campaign and not formally end it, giving her leverage to negotiate with Obama on various matters including a possible vice presidential nomination for her. She also wants to press him on issues he should focus on in the fall, such as health care.
The Clinton campaign, however, is denying the AP report. "The AP story is incorrect. Senator Clinton will not concede the nomination this evening," the statement said.
Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe did say this morning that once Obama reaches the majority of delegates, "I think Hillary Clinton will congratulate him and call him the nominee."
McAuliffe had been among those as late as Monday excoriating the Democratic National Committee rules committee's decision on the disputed Florida and Michigan delegates and reserving the right to appeal the ruling.
But on NBC's "Today" show this morning, he said, "I don't think she's going to go to the credentials committee."
And the New York Times reported today that Clinton is prepared to give what aides are calling a farewell speech tonight summing up her candidacy.
U.N. Issues Warning on Food Crisis
Resolving the global food crisis could cost as much as $30 billion a year and wealthier nations are doing little to help the developing world face the problem, United Nations officials said Tuesday.
At a U.N. food summit attended by dozens of world leaders, Jacques Diouf, head of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, opened the meeting by sharply criticizing wealthy nations who he said were cutting back on agriculture programs for the world’s poor and ignoring deforestation — while spending billions on carbon markets, subsidies for farmers and biofuel production.
“The developing countries did in fact forge policies, strategies and programs that — if they had received appropriate funding — would have given us world food security,” Mr. Diouf, said, adding that international community finally began to mobilize to help after images of food riots and starvation emerged in the media. He said there had been plenty of meetings on the need for anti-hunger programs and agricultural development in poor nations in the last decade but not enough money to make them a reality.
Another major debate that emerged at the conference was the role of biofuels in producing food shortages. The U.S. delegation here maintains that only 2 to 3 percent of food price rises were attributable to the biofuel boom. The U.N., however, said the impact was much greater. Biofuel production affects food prices because farmers in many countries have switched from growing crops for food to growing crops for fuel.
Mr. Diouf criticized policies like those in the United States that subsidize growing crops for energy.
“Nobody understands how $11 to $12 billion a year subsidies in 2006 and protective tariff policies have the effect of diverting 100 million tons of cereals from human consumption, mostly to satisfy the thirst for fuel for vehicles,” Mr. Diouf said.
But Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil, pointed out that some biofuels could provide a solution to world hunger if properly deployed. In Brazil, where biofuel is made from sugar cane, the industry has provided jobs for poor people as well as sustainable fuel, he said.
The idea that biofuels have cause the world hunger crisis was “an oversimplification” and “an affront that does not stand up to serious discussion,” Mr. da Silva said.
He instead blamed the high cost of food on high fuel prices: “It offends me to see fingers pointed at biofuels, when the fingers are coated in oil and coal.”
There was little disagreement about how to resolve the spiraling costs of food and its impact on the world’s poor: more food aid to feed the world’s hungry, additional seeds and fertilizer for poor farmers, fewer export bans and tariffs that restrict the flow of trade, and more research to improve crop yields. The problem now is convincing wealthy nations to pay for it, estimated to cost as much as $30 billion a year.
Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations, appealed for financial support from wealthy nations to immediately provide more food aid and to help poor countries grow more food. He noted that several governments and global institutions have already pledged additional financial support to deal with the food crisis.
In addition, the United States and some other countries have suggested that genetically modified crops could play a key role in helping poor nations to grow more food, a position that some governments and non-profit groups strongly oppose. The United States is by far the world’s leading producer of genetically modified crops and seeds.
At the Circus Maximus, across from the conference site, ActionAid, an international anti-poverty group, unfurled a banner saying “Stop Profiting from Hunger — Right to Food Now.”
At a U.N. food summit attended by dozens of world leaders, Jacques Diouf, head of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, opened the meeting by sharply criticizing wealthy nations who he said were cutting back on agriculture programs for the world’s poor and ignoring deforestation — while spending billions on carbon markets, subsidies for farmers and biofuel production.
“The developing countries did in fact forge policies, strategies and programs that — if they had received appropriate funding — would have given us world food security,” Mr. Diouf, said, adding that international community finally began to mobilize to help after images of food riots and starvation emerged in the media. He said there had been plenty of meetings on the need for anti-hunger programs and agricultural development in poor nations in the last decade but not enough money to make them a reality.
Another major debate that emerged at the conference was the role of biofuels in producing food shortages. The U.S. delegation here maintains that only 2 to 3 percent of food price rises were attributable to the biofuel boom. The U.N., however, said the impact was much greater. Biofuel production affects food prices because farmers in many countries have switched from growing crops for food to growing crops for fuel.
Mr. Diouf criticized policies like those in the United States that subsidize growing crops for energy.
“Nobody understands how $11 to $12 billion a year subsidies in 2006 and protective tariff policies have the effect of diverting 100 million tons of cereals from human consumption, mostly to satisfy the thirst for fuel for vehicles,” Mr. Diouf said.
But Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil, pointed out that some biofuels could provide a solution to world hunger if properly deployed. In Brazil, where biofuel is made from sugar cane, the industry has provided jobs for poor people as well as sustainable fuel, he said.
The idea that biofuels have cause the world hunger crisis was “an oversimplification” and “an affront that does not stand up to serious discussion,” Mr. da Silva said.
He instead blamed the high cost of food on high fuel prices: “It offends me to see fingers pointed at biofuels, when the fingers are coated in oil and coal.”
There was little disagreement about how to resolve the spiraling costs of food and its impact on the world’s poor: more food aid to feed the world’s hungry, additional seeds and fertilizer for poor farmers, fewer export bans and tariffs that restrict the flow of trade, and more research to improve crop yields. The problem now is convincing wealthy nations to pay for it, estimated to cost as much as $30 billion a year.
Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations, appealed for financial support from wealthy nations to immediately provide more food aid and to help poor countries grow more food. He noted that several governments and global institutions have already pledged additional financial support to deal with the food crisis.
In addition, the United States and some other countries have suggested that genetically modified crops could play a key role in helping poor nations to grow more food, a position that some governments and non-profit groups strongly oppose. The United States is by far the world’s leading producer of genetically modified crops and seeds.
At the Circus Maximus, across from the conference site, ActionAid, an international anti-poverty group, unfurled a banner saying “Stop Profiting from Hunger — Right to Food Now.”
Obama Pushes to Claim Victory After Final Primaries
The Democratic primaries in South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday bring to an end a process that began precisely five months ago in Iowa. Expect the night to be late, potentially chaotic and not necessarily conclusive.
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Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton working the crowd on Monday at a restaurant in Rapid City, S.D. She plans to deliver a speech on Tuesday in New York. More Photos »
Senator Barack Obama, the Illinois Democrat, is using this last day to try to close down his nominating battle with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. He is looking to win in both states and to pick up the 25 or so superdelegates he needs so that, combined with the delegates he will gain in Montana and South Dakota, he can claim to have the 2,118 delegates needed to be the Democratic nominee. (Or more precisely, to step back and let the media proclaim him the winner; watch for the race of political and newspaper Web sites to be first to send out the “Obama Nominated” news bulletin).
Mr. Obama’s effort with the superdelegates began early Tuesday — at 6:58 a.m. Eastern time, Mr. Obama’s campaign announced that Joyce Lalonde, a Democratic superdelegate from Michigan, had joined the Obama campaign. If all goes as planned, it will continue through the day with a steady stream of endorsements. The moment the polls close in South Dakota, marking the official end of the nominating season — at 10 p.m. Eastern — a delegation of at least eight members of Congress who had been holding out until after the primaries will announce their support of Mr. Obama, according to Mr. Obama’s aides.
Mr. Obama would, if all goes according to plan, take the microphone as his party’s presumptive Democratic nominee, and begin — without distraction — his general election campaign against Senator John McCain of Arizona Wednesday morning.
What could go wrong?
Well, a few things. For one, although Mr. Obama seems in a clear position to win in Montana, the situation is not as clear in South Dakota, a state where there is no real history of Democratic primaries and where polling — at least as suggested by the divergent polls coming out of there — appears dicey. Mrs. Clinton and Bill Clinton have campaigned heavily in that state in the final hours, reflecting the sense in the Clinton campaign — and at least some worry in the Obama campaign — of the uncertainty of the outcome there.
A loss by Mr. Obama in South Dakota would probably not derail his hopes for the nomination; it does appear that the train has left the station, and there are not enough delegates at stake there to put Mrs. Clinton back in the delegate hunt. Still, it would mean that Mr. Obama would be ending the contest on a sour note, and one that would serve to reinforce many of the concerns Democrats have voiced about him as he has staggered through the second half of the primary season — in particular, that he is having trouble competing with Mrs. Clinton among white blue-collar workers.
The fact that voting results won’t start coming in until late in the evening could also complicate things for Mr. Obama. He would no doubt prefer to make his speech after the two states have been called, but if South Dakota is close, that could prove complicated.
The other factor that might distract from Mr. Obama’s attempt to move on Tuesday night is Mrs. Clinton. There have been some media reports over the past 24 hours suggesting that she may suspend her campaign with her speech in New York Tuesday, which would permit Mr. Obama to pivot cleanly to the general election. Her associates say, though, that this outcome is highly unlikely, and suggest looking for something more like a farewell address for now, an ambivalent coda to the evening. If she does suspend her campaign — and that does seem a likely outcome — it will be sometime over the next few days.
And finally, consider this: If Mrs. Clinton pulls out a victory in South Dakota, it could very well give her the impetus — and the ammunition — to make the case to superdelegates that Mr. Obama is an anemic general-election candidate and that the party should turn to her. That result could make her delay an exit even longer
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Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton working the crowd on Monday at a restaurant in Rapid City, S.D. She plans to deliver a speech on Tuesday in New York. More Photos »
Senator Barack Obama, the Illinois Democrat, is using this last day to try to close down his nominating battle with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. He is looking to win in both states and to pick up the 25 or so superdelegates he needs so that, combined with the delegates he will gain in Montana and South Dakota, he can claim to have the 2,118 delegates needed to be the Democratic nominee. (Or more precisely, to step back and let the media proclaim him the winner; watch for the race of political and newspaper Web sites to be first to send out the “Obama Nominated” news bulletin).
Mr. Obama’s effort with the superdelegates began early Tuesday — at 6:58 a.m. Eastern time, Mr. Obama’s campaign announced that Joyce Lalonde, a Democratic superdelegate from Michigan, had joined the Obama campaign. If all goes as planned, it will continue through the day with a steady stream of endorsements. The moment the polls close in South Dakota, marking the official end of the nominating season — at 10 p.m. Eastern — a delegation of at least eight members of Congress who had been holding out until after the primaries will announce their support of Mr. Obama, according to Mr. Obama’s aides.
Mr. Obama would, if all goes according to plan, take the microphone as his party’s presumptive Democratic nominee, and begin — without distraction — his general election campaign against Senator John McCain of Arizona Wednesday morning.
What could go wrong?
Well, a few things. For one, although Mr. Obama seems in a clear position to win in Montana, the situation is not as clear in South Dakota, a state where there is no real history of Democratic primaries and where polling — at least as suggested by the divergent polls coming out of there — appears dicey. Mrs. Clinton and Bill Clinton have campaigned heavily in that state in the final hours, reflecting the sense in the Clinton campaign — and at least some worry in the Obama campaign — of the uncertainty of the outcome there.
A loss by Mr. Obama in South Dakota would probably not derail his hopes for the nomination; it does appear that the train has left the station, and there are not enough delegates at stake there to put Mrs. Clinton back in the delegate hunt. Still, it would mean that Mr. Obama would be ending the contest on a sour note, and one that would serve to reinforce many of the concerns Democrats have voiced about him as he has staggered through the second half of the primary season — in particular, that he is having trouble competing with Mrs. Clinton among white blue-collar workers.
The fact that voting results won’t start coming in until late in the evening could also complicate things for Mr. Obama. He would no doubt prefer to make his speech after the two states have been called, but if South Dakota is close, that could prove complicated.
The other factor that might distract from Mr. Obama’s attempt to move on Tuesday night is Mrs. Clinton. There have been some media reports over the past 24 hours suggesting that she may suspend her campaign with her speech in New York Tuesday, which would permit Mr. Obama to pivot cleanly to the general election. Her associates say, though, that this outcome is highly unlikely, and suggest looking for something more like a farewell address for now, an ambivalent coda to the evening. If she does suspend her campaign — and that does seem a likely outcome — it will be sometime over the next few days.
And finally, consider this: If Mrs. Clinton pulls out a victory in South Dakota, it could very well give her the impetus — and the ammunition — to make the case to superdelegates that Mr. Obama is an anemic general-election candidate and that the party should turn to her. That result could make her delay an exit even longer
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