Monday, July 7, 2008

UPDATE 1-Merrill may write down about $6 bln in Q2: Citigroup

Merrill Lynch & Co (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) may write down about $6 billion in the second quarter primarily driven by losses on high-grade collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) positions and monoline exposure, said analyst Prashant Bhatia at Citigroup.

Bhatia, who now has the highest second-quarter writedown estimate for Merrill among brokers, also forecast a second quarter loss for the quarter and widened his 2008 loss per share view.

He said said the writedown estimate for the second quarter comprised of $4.8 billion on super senior CDO long positions, offset by roughly $2 billion of gains on short positions with non-monoline counterparties and $2.2 billion on credit valuation adjustments related to financial guarantors.

"We estimate $500 million of marks on subprime whole loans, $300 million on private equity positions, and $200 million on debt revaluation," Bhatia said in his note dated July 6, which highlighted the second quarter preview for Merrill.

Bhatia also forecast a second quarter loss of $3.95 at Merrill, and widened his 2008 loss per share estimate to $6 from $1. He cut his price target on the stock to $65 from $75, while rating it a "buy."

Shares of Merrill rose 1.5 percent to $31.59 in morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

Bhatia said Merrill has raised $600 million more capital than it has lost since 2007 and that a sale of the company's stake in BlackRock Inc (BLK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) could generate more than $2.5 billion in capital.

Bhatia believes Merrill would most likely sell a portion of its stake in order to avoid raising capital and further diluting its investors.

Merrill, the world's largest brokerage, has a nearly 50 percent stake in money manager BlackRock. Merrill Lynch's stake in BlackRock currently has a market value of roughly $11 billion, Bhatia noted. (Reporting by Ramya Dilip in Bangalore; Editing by Bernard Orr)

UPDATE 1-India's Reliance Comm may meet Reliance Ind-source

India's Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) has offered to meet Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research), a source said a day before its period of exclusive talks with South Africa's MTN Group (MTNJ.J: Quote, Profile, Research) ends, which an analyst said may mean a deal has not been struck yet.

Reliance Industries, India's most valuable firm, has staked a right of first refusal on Reliance Communications' shares, but India's No. 2 mobile firm maintains that Reliance Industries' claims were untenable, a source close to the development said.

Reliance Communications was prepared to meet with Reliance Industries in the week of July 14 "to clarify any doubts", the source said, adding the meeting was not part of "conciliation" or "dispute resolution".

"Anil may be seeking more time to convince Mukesh," said Emeka Obiodu, senior telecoms analyst at Global Insight in London, referring to the chairman of Reliance Communications and his estranged brother, the chairman of Reliance Industries.

"But anything short of an unequivocal surrender of the purported first right of refusal by Mukesh will not be enough for MTN. The South Africans will not give up control of MTN to an uncertain future," he said.

A spokeswoman for Reliance Industries said they had no immediate response, and would respond shortly.

Reliance Communications, India's No. 2 mobile operator, began exclusive talks with MTN, sub-Saharan Africa's top mobile operator, in end-May. A deal would create a top-10 global telecoms firm with operations in about two dozen countries.

In June, Mukesh Ambani, who runs Reliance Industries and is the estranged older brother of Reliance Communications chairman Anil Ambani, had claimed a right of first refusal on Reliance Communications shares.

Shares in Reliance Communications ended Monday down 4.2 percent at 419.80 rupees in a Mumbai market that rose 0.5 percent. For more on the talks, see

Indian cos opt for share buyback as stocks slide

More and more Indian companies are opting to buy back shares from the open market to stem falling share prices as lower valuations provide an attractive buying opportunity for founders.

Nearly a dozen companies have announced intentions to buy back their shares since February, including India's top listed real estate firm DLF Ltd and tyre cord maker SRF Ltd.

"As management, we feel the stock is substantially undervalued. The market is not giving it the valuation that it should get," said Rajendra Prasad, president and chief financial officer of SRF, which revived its equity buyback plan last week.

SRF shares are down by about a third of their value since the beginning of this year, while DLF has lost about two-thirds.

India's benchmark stock index, which peaked on Jan 10, has since shed more than a third of its value amid concerns of rising global crude oil prices and surging inflation.

"A buyback is a good tool to shore up the promoters' shareholding," said Vikram Sheth, senior vice president of investment banking, ICICI Securities Ltd, the investment banking and broking arm of ICICI Bank Ltd, India's biggest private bank.

"It also sends a strong message to the market indicating that the company believes the stock is undervalued," he added

Two out of three stocks on the BSE 500 index have shed more than 40 percent so far this yea

Bertha becomes hurricane

-- Bertha became the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.


A satellite picture from 5:45 a.m. ET Monday shows Hurricane Bertha over the Atlantic.

As of 5 a.m. ET, Bertha was 845 miles (1365 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands and was moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph.

It was packing winds of 75 mph -- the minimum for hurricane status.

Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, according to forecasters.

The hurricane center said it is still too early to determine whether Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.

The five-day forecast map shows Bertha passing near Bermuda, but hurricanes are unpredictable and their routes often change during a forecast period. See Bertha's predicted path »

The storm formed Thursday in the far eastern Atlantic, off the coast of Africa, near the southern Cape Verde Islands.

India - Afghanistan's influential ally

The attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul is a setback for a country which has been one of Afghanistan's closest allies in recent years.


After the fall of the Taleban in 2001 India moved quickly to regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan.

It opened two new consulates in Herat and Mazhar-e-Sharif and reopened two others in Kandahar and Jalalabad which had been shut since 1979.

India also became one of Kabul's leading donors - it has pledged to spend $750m on helping rebuild the country's shattered infrastructure.

Funds have been committed for education, health, power and telecommunications. There has also been money in the form of food aid and help to strengthen governance.

India is erecting power transmission lines in the north, building more than 200km (125 miles) of road, digging tube wells in six provinces, running sanitation projects in Kabul, and working on lighting up 100 villages using solar energy.

It has given at least three Airbus planes to Afghanistan's ailing national airline. Several thousand Indians are engaged in development work.

'High profile'

Bilateral trade has grown rapidly, reaching $225m in 2006-2007.

"India's reconstruction strategy was designed to win over every sector of Afghan society, give India a high profile with Afghans, gain the maximum political advantage and, of course, undercut Pakistani influence," says analyst Ahmed Rashid, who has written extensively on the region.

Pakistan has had misgivings about increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan since the Taleban were ousted.

President Pervez Musharraf has openly accused Afghan President Hamid Karzai of kow-towing to India. Islamabad has also said that the Indian consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad are funnelling arms and money to insurgents in Pakistan's troubled Balochistan region.


India is sponsoring vocational training of Afghan nationals

All this once provoked President Hamid Karzai, who went to university in India, to say: "If Pakistan is worried about the role of India, let me assure [you], I have been very specific in telling the Indians that they cannot use Afghan soil for acts of aggression against another country."

Analysts say Pakistan believes its influence is declining in post-war Afghanistan.

"India's success in Afghanistan stirred up a hornet's nest in Islamabad which came to believe that India was 'taking over Afghanistan'," says Ahmed Rashid in his new book Descent Into Chaos.

Also, local Taleban have attacked and kidnapped Indians in the country.

Changing fortunes

There have been explosions and grenade attacks on the Indian consulates in Herat and Jalalabad.

In January, two Indian and 11 Afghan security personnel were killed and several injured in an attack on the road that India is building, which will link the western cities of Zaranj and Herat with Kandahar in the south.

In November 2005, a driver with India's state-run Border Roads Organisation was abducted and killed by the Taleban while working on the road.

There have been other attacks on Indians too.

In 2003, an Indian national working for a construction company was killed by unknown attackers in Kabul's Taimani district.

In 2006, an Indian telecommunications engineer was abducted and killed in the southern province in Zabul.

India's fortunes in Afghanistan have swung back and forth for much of the past two decades

A staunch ally of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, India supported the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

This decision made India vastly unpopular among Afghans.


President Musharraf has accused Afghanistan of kow-towing to India

A decade later, it continued to back the Communist-regime of President Najibullah, while Pakistan threw its entire support behind the ethnic Pashtun mujahideen warlords, particularly the Islamist Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who were fighting the Soviet Union.

So when the Taleban swept to power and put an end to a bloody civil conflict among warlords, India was left without any influence in the country.

It ended up backing the Northern Alliance, which controlled territory north of the Shomali plains near Kabul.

Pakistan, on the other hand, backed and recognised the pariah Taleban regime and gained further strategic depth in the region.

Afghanistan's interior ministry says it believes the attack on the Indian embassy was carried out "in co-ordination and consultation with an active intelligence service in the region".

It is clearly alluding to Pakistani agents, who have been blamed for a number of attacks in Afghanistan.

We may never know precisely who carried out the attack.

But the bombing points to the "Great Game" still being played out between neighbours seeking to gain influence in Afghanistan.



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AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE



FEATURES AND ANALYSIS

Unfulfilled dreams
Social disparity, corruption and instability plague Afghanistan

A tribute to Abdul Samad Rohani
Under strain
Nato at pains to dismiss tensions
Why Taleban feel confident
UK-Afghan ties hit a low
Drug bazaar
Women under siege
Schools try to make new start
BACKGROUND
In graphics: Harsh realities
Q&A: Isaf troops explained
Quick guide: Afghanistan
Key players
Who are the Taleban?
HAVE YOUR SAY

Afghan village life
Have things got better two years on? Your questions answered


Your questions answered
Should Nato send more troops?
VIDEO AND AUDIO


Snapshots of life in Kabul


Taleban still defiant

IN DEPTH


Afghanistan's future


RELATED INTERNET LINKS
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Sunday, July 6, 2008

PM to raise climate change issue at G8

The Manmohan-Bush summit in the sidelines of the G8 summit in Hokkaido is expected to work out a tentative plan of action for the next two stages, of the nuclear deal — approvals from IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

By itself, the G8 summit is overflowing with issues — from environment to major economies to Africa, from world economy to oil and food prices.

In a statement on the eve of his visit, Manmohan Singh said he would raise a number of issues from India's perspectives. They included the state of the world economy, development, trade, transfer of technology, energy and food security.

"I will, in particular, highlight the impact of the sharp rise in fuel prices on the global economy and the need for joint action by both producing and consuming nations," he said. But there is little expectation that substantial progress can be made on any of the issues. In fact, if any international initiative has any chance of a breakthrough, it will be the Indian nuclear agreement. Through July 8 and 9, the PM and his top officials — national security adviser MK Narayanan, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and his special envoy Shyam Saran — will pump flesh and lobby with NSG members.

Climate change and energy security, which are top of the agenda at this summit, will be utilized by India to push the deal. Just a cursory look can show how important the last few G8 summits have been for the nuclear deal. In 2007, despite an exasperated Manmohan Singh strongly objecting to being relegated to a breakfast meeting, it was the G8 summit that delivered a breakthrough in the nuclear deal, when Narayanan worked out with his US counterpart Stephen Hadley the details of a stand-alone reprocessing plant that cleared the reprocessing hurdle in the 123 negotiations.

As a matter of fact, it was the 2005 Gleaneagles summit that coalesced the Indian and US intentions to tie environmental concerns with the nuclear deal. Singh, who was in Washington barely a week later to sign the July 18 joint statement with George Bush, actually did the legwork on the deal at the G8 summit. And in 2008, the G8 summit is again vitally important for an India wanting to convince the world to give it a leg up in high-tech commerce by acquiescing to a unique nuclear deal.

The difficulties stem from not merely the fact that time is really tight for the deal, but in the positions of the leaders themselves. Bush is on his last few months, with declining clout, while across the Atlantic, Brown is fighting for his own political survival. Medvedev is too new at the job to make any real difference as is Italian PM Berlusconi. Sarkozy is actually the tallest European leader at present, along with Merkel, whose country, Germany, holds the chair in NSG this year and will be the one to pilot the nuclear deal through the grouping.

Fukuda is also on a political downslide. Besides, he’s much more intent in repairing relations with China than with India. Besides, the Japanese are not at all comfortable with the nuclear discussions taking centrestage at the summit in Japan, for obvious reasons.

On the eve of his departure, the PM said, "Today, India's views are heard with respect, and there is recognition of the fact that solutions to global issues require India's involvement." That will also be the hope on the nuclear deal.

NY Times has provided the first hints that the American Administration may be thinking twice before going ahead with Manmohan Singh’s nuclear deal mad

NY Times has provided the first hints that the American Administration may be thinking twice before going ahead with Manmohan Singh’s nuclear deal made ready by compromising with Congress foes like SP and Mulayam Singh Yadav.

President George Bush, who was "eager for any foreign policy win" before the expiry of his term in January 2009, is pressing the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh "hard to finally work this (nuclear deal) out," The New York Times said.

In an editorial headlined, ''No Rush, Please'', the American daily argued "there is no reason at all to rush. President Bush gave away far too much and got far too little for this deal".

According to international think tanks, Americans are getting careful about Sonia Gandhi’s and Manmohan Singh’s Government. They are worried that the unpopular Government will lose the election and never be able to come back to power leaving an un ugly legacy of voodoo diplomacy to get the nuclear done for the $100 billion dollar.

It is better to deal with a legitimate freshly elected Government of India than those who are eager to grab some possible kickbacks from $100 billion deal.

NY Times praised President Bush for building on the Clinton administration legacy to forge stronger ties with "a burgeoning power whose democratic values provide a unique basis for cooperation," the daily said: "It was a mistake to let India and industry lobbyists persuade him to make the nuclear deal the centrepiece."

In America influential new papers like NY Times or Washington Post normally sings the tune of the Administration. One thing must be pointed out that NY Times has the worst relationship ever with a sitting President in the oval office as in George Bush.

Ultimately it comes down to the politics. How legitimate is the Congress party any longer? Should America wait and converge on the deal with next elected Government given the fact that both US and India will have a new Administration in the next nine to twelve months?

The answer is yes. India is too important for America. When BJP comes back to power, the deal will be renegotiated any way.


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