If the resurgent Taliban-ISI nexus in Afghanistan wanted to target some key Indian officials in Kabul, defence attache, Brigadier Ravi Datt Mehta, was certainly one of them.
A "bright and dynamic" officer who had developed "deep linkages" with the leadership of the fledgling Afghan army in the six months he had been posted in Kabul, Brig Mehta even had a "good relationship" with Afghan defence minister Abdul Rahim Wardak.
Brig Mehta, in fact, had accompanied Wardak when he came to New Delhi in April to hold discussions with his Indian counterpart A K Antony and visit Jammu and Kashmir for a first-hand look at the way Indian army conducted counter-insurgency operations.
"Brig Mehta was on the ball in Afghanistan. He was a confident, well-informed officer, who kept his ear to the ground and closely tracked the re-emerging strong links between Taliban and Pakistan's ISI, among other things," said a top defence official.
"The defence attache's post in Kabul is, after all, one of the top three or four Indian military postings abroad. Brig Mehta was selected for the posting after a deep selection process," he added.
Brig Mehta, who was commissioned into the army in June 1976, had varied operational experience, including stints in counter-insurgency operations in both J&K and North-East.
Apart from his Kabul posting, another indicator that he was headed for at least a "two-star rank" (Major-General) was that he had done the prestigious National Defence College course around three years ago.
The tragic incident on Monday came at a time when Brig Mehta's wife Sunita and two children, Flight Lieutenant Udit Mehta, a 24-year-old MiG fighter pilot posted at Jodhpur, and Bhavya Mehta, a 19-year-old MBBS student, were all at Kabul. "Sunita was staying in Kabul, a non-family station, for the last three months due to a special Afghan government request. She was teaching Afghan girls for higher studies at an institute run by the Afghan education ministry. The children were there to visit their parents on a short holiday," said an official.
Brig Mehta, on his part, was playing a key role in India's military training and logistical help to Afghanistan. Though India does not actually have soldiers deployed in Afghanistan, it has built bridges with the Afghan armed forces to counter any prospect of Pakistan regaining influence in the war-ravaged country through a resurgent Taliban-al Qaida-ISI nexus.
India has been regularly training Afghan officers and other ranks at its military training institutions, ranging from the National Defence Academy at Khadakwasla to the School of Artillery at Devlali, ever since the Karzai government came to office.
Apart from developmental projects like the construction of the 218-km Zaranj-Delaram road, India has also posted some army officers in Afghanistan to teach basic military fieldcraft and English skills to the Afghan army, apart from sending several military doctors to help at hospitals in Kandahar and elsewhere.
Afghanistan wants to build its own national armed forces, which has only around 50,000 troops at present, to
gradually replace US-led Nato's International Security Assistance Force operating in the country.
It has sought India's help in "capacity-building" of its armed forces, which even includes training of its pilots
and technicians in operating Russian-origin Mi-35 helicopter gunships, as well as sourcing supplies for its Soviet-era tanks and aircraft.
"Kabul is also interested in sending more officers for specialised training at the Counter-Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School in Mizoram and High-Altitude Warfare School in J&K as well as the different commando and counter-terrorism courses run at Belgaum and Bareilly," said a senior official.
"The Afghan government says this is necessary since the Taliban is increasingly resorting to IED blasts and suicide bombings instead of direct face-to-face confrontations," he added.
Monday, July 7, 2008
UPDATE 1-Merrill may write down about $6 bln in Q2: Citigroup
Merrill Lynch & Co (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) may write down about $6 billion in the second quarter primarily driven by losses on high-grade collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) positions and monoline exposure, said analyst Prashant Bhatia at Citigroup.
Bhatia, who now has the highest second-quarter writedown estimate for Merrill among brokers, also forecast a second quarter loss for the quarter and widened his 2008 loss per share view.
He said said the writedown estimate for the second quarter comprised of $4.8 billion on super senior CDO long positions, offset by roughly $2 billion of gains on short positions with non-monoline counterparties and $2.2 billion on credit valuation adjustments related to financial guarantors.
"We estimate $500 million of marks on subprime whole loans, $300 million on private equity positions, and $200 million on debt revaluation," Bhatia said in his note dated July 6, which highlighted the second quarter preview for Merrill.
Bhatia also forecast a second quarter loss of $3.95 at Merrill, and widened his 2008 loss per share estimate to $6 from $1. He cut his price target on the stock to $65 from $75, while rating it a "buy."
Shares of Merrill rose 1.5 percent to $31.59 in morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
Bhatia said Merrill has raised $600 million more capital than it has lost since 2007 and that a sale of the company's stake in BlackRock Inc (BLK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) could generate more than $2.5 billion in capital.
Bhatia believes Merrill would most likely sell a portion of its stake in order to avoid raising capital and further diluting its investors.
Merrill, the world's largest brokerage, has a nearly 50 percent stake in money manager BlackRock. Merrill Lynch's stake in BlackRock currently has a market value of roughly $11 billion, Bhatia noted. (Reporting by Ramya Dilip in Bangalore; Editing by Bernard Orr)
Bhatia, who now has the highest second-quarter writedown estimate for Merrill among brokers, also forecast a second quarter loss for the quarter and widened his 2008 loss per share view.
He said said the writedown estimate for the second quarter comprised of $4.8 billion on super senior CDO long positions, offset by roughly $2 billion of gains on short positions with non-monoline counterparties and $2.2 billion on credit valuation adjustments related to financial guarantors.
"We estimate $500 million of marks on subprime whole loans, $300 million on private equity positions, and $200 million on debt revaluation," Bhatia said in his note dated July 6, which highlighted the second quarter preview for Merrill.
Bhatia also forecast a second quarter loss of $3.95 at Merrill, and widened his 2008 loss per share estimate to $6 from $1. He cut his price target on the stock to $65 from $75, while rating it a "buy."
Shares of Merrill rose 1.5 percent to $31.59 in morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
Bhatia said Merrill has raised $600 million more capital than it has lost since 2007 and that a sale of the company's stake in BlackRock Inc (BLK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) could generate more than $2.5 billion in capital.
Bhatia believes Merrill would most likely sell a portion of its stake in order to avoid raising capital and further diluting its investors.
Merrill, the world's largest brokerage, has a nearly 50 percent stake in money manager BlackRock. Merrill Lynch's stake in BlackRock currently has a market value of roughly $11 billion, Bhatia noted. (Reporting by Ramya Dilip in Bangalore; Editing by Bernard Orr)
UPDATE 1-India's Reliance Comm may meet Reliance Ind-source
India's Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) has offered to meet Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research), a source said a day before its period of exclusive talks with South Africa's MTN Group (MTNJ.J: Quote, Profile, Research) ends, which an analyst said may mean a deal has not been struck yet.
Reliance Industries, India's most valuable firm, has staked a right of first refusal on Reliance Communications' shares, but India's No. 2 mobile firm maintains that Reliance Industries' claims were untenable, a source close to the development said.
Reliance Communications was prepared to meet with Reliance Industries in the week of July 14 "to clarify any doubts", the source said, adding the meeting was not part of "conciliation" or "dispute resolution".
"Anil may be seeking more time to convince Mukesh," said Emeka Obiodu, senior telecoms analyst at Global Insight in London, referring to the chairman of Reliance Communications and his estranged brother, the chairman of Reliance Industries.
"But anything short of an unequivocal surrender of the purported first right of refusal by Mukesh will not be enough for MTN. The South Africans will not give up control of MTN to an uncertain future," he said.
A spokeswoman for Reliance Industries said they had no immediate response, and would respond shortly.
Reliance Communications, India's No. 2 mobile operator, began exclusive talks with MTN, sub-Saharan Africa's top mobile operator, in end-May. A deal would create a top-10 global telecoms firm with operations in about two dozen countries.
In June, Mukesh Ambani, who runs Reliance Industries and is the estranged older brother of Reliance Communications chairman Anil Ambani, had claimed a right of first refusal on Reliance Communications shares.
Shares in Reliance Communications ended Monday down 4.2 percent at 419.80 rupees in a Mumbai market that rose 0.5 percent. For more on the talks, see
Reliance Industries, India's most valuable firm, has staked a right of first refusal on Reliance Communications' shares, but India's No. 2 mobile firm maintains that Reliance Industries' claims were untenable, a source close to the development said.
Reliance Communications was prepared to meet with Reliance Industries in the week of July 14 "to clarify any doubts", the source said, adding the meeting was not part of "conciliation" or "dispute resolution".
"Anil may be seeking more time to convince Mukesh," said Emeka Obiodu, senior telecoms analyst at Global Insight in London, referring to the chairman of Reliance Communications and his estranged brother, the chairman of Reliance Industries.
"But anything short of an unequivocal surrender of the purported first right of refusal by Mukesh will not be enough for MTN. The South Africans will not give up control of MTN to an uncertain future," he said.
A spokeswoman for Reliance Industries said they had no immediate response, and would respond shortly.
Reliance Communications, India's No. 2 mobile operator, began exclusive talks with MTN, sub-Saharan Africa's top mobile operator, in end-May. A deal would create a top-10 global telecoms firm with operations in about two dozen countries.
In June, Mukesh Ambani, who runs Reliance Industries and is the estranged older brother of Reliance Communications chairman Anil Ambani, had claimed a right of first refusal on Reliance Communications shares.
Shares in Reliance Communications ended Monday down 4.2 percent at 419.80 rupees in a Mumbai market that rose 0.5 percent. For more on the talks, see
Indian cos opt for share buyback as stocks slide
More and more Indian companies are opting to buy back shares from the open market to stem falling share prices as lower valuations provide an attractive buying opportunity for founders.
Nearly a dozen companies have announced intentions to buy back their shares since February, including India's top listed real estate firm DLF Ltd and tyre cord maker SRF Ltd.
"As management, we feel the stock is substantially undervalued. The market is not giving it the valuation that it should get," said Rajendra Prasad, president and chief financial officer of SRF, which revived its equity buyback plan last week.
SRF shares are down by about a third of their value since the beginning of this year, while DLF has lost about two-thirds.
India's benchmark stock index, which peaked on Jan 10, has since shed more than a third of its value amid concerns of rising global crude oil prices and surging inflation.
"A buyback is a good tool to shore up the promoters' shareholding," said Vikram Sheth, senior vice president of investment banking, ICICI Securities Ltd, the investment banking and broking arm of ICICI Bank Ltd, India's biggest private bank.
"It also sends a strong message to the market indicating that the company believes the stock is undervalued," he added
Two out of three stocks on the BSE 500 index have shed more than 40 percent so far this yea
Nearly a dozen companies have announced intentions to buy back their shares since February, including India's top listed real estate firm DLF Ltd and tyre cord maker SRF Ltd.
"As management, we feel the stock is substantially undervalued. The market is not giving it the valuation that it should get," said Rajendra Prasad, president and chief financial officer of SRF, which revived its equity buyback plan last week.
SRF shares are down by about a third of their value since the beginning of this year, while DLF has lost about two-thirds.
India's benchmark stock index, which peaked on Jan 10, has since shed more than a third of its value amid concerns of rising global crude oil prices and surging inflation.
"A buyback is a good tool to shore up the promoters' shareholding," said Vikram Sheth, senior vice president of investment banking, ICICI Securities Ltd, the investment banking and broking arm of ICICI Bank Ltd, India's biggest private bank.
"It also sends a strong message to the market indicating that the company believes the stock is undervalued," he added
Two out of three stocks on the BSE 500 index have shed more than 40 percent so far this yea
Bertha becomes hurricane
-- Bertha became the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A satellite picture from 5:45 a.m. ET Monday shows Hurricane Bertha over the Atlantic.
As of 5 a.m. ET, Bertha was 845 miles (1365 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands and was moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph.
It was packing winds of 75 mph -- the minimum for hurricane status.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, according to forecasters.
The hurricane center said it is still too early to determine whether Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.
The five-day forecast map shows Bertha passing near Bermuda, but hurricanes are unpredictable and their routes often change during a forecast period. See Bertha's predicted path »
The storm formed Thursday in the far eastern Atlantic, off the coast of Africa, near the southern Cape Verde Islands.
A satellite picture from 5:45 a.m. ET Monday shows Hurricane Bertha over the Atlantic.
As of 5 a.m. ET, Bertha was 845 miles (1365 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands and was moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph.
It was packing winds of 75 mph -- the minimum for hurricane status.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, according to forecasters.
The hurricane center said it is still too early to determine whether Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.
The five-day forecast map shows Bertha passing near Bermuda, but hurricanes are unpredictable and their routes often change during a forecast period. See Bertha's predicted path »
The storm formed Thursday in the far eastern Atlantic, off the coast of Africa, near the southern Cape Verde Islands.
India - Afghanistan's influential ally
The attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul is a setback for a country which has been one of Afghanistan's closest allies in recent years.
After the fall of the Taleban in 2001 India moved quickly to regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan.
It opened two new consulates in Herat and Mazhar-e-Sharif and reopened two others in Kandahar and Jalalabad which had been shut since 1979.
India also became one of Kabul's leading donors - it has pledged to spend $750m on helping rebuild the country's shattered infrastructure.
Funds have been committed for education, health, power and telecommunications. There has also been money in the form of food aid and help to strengthen governance.
India is erecting power transmission lines in the north, building more than 200km (125 miles) of road, digging tube wells in six provinces, running sanitation projects in Kabul, and working on lighting up 100 villages using solar energy.
It has given at least three Airbus planes to Afghanistan's ailing national airline. Several thousand Indians are engaged in development work.
'High profile'
Bilateral trade has grown rapidly, reaching $225m in 2006-2007.
"India's reconstruction strategy was designed to win over every sector of Afghan society, give India a high profile with Afghans, gain the maximum political advantage and, of course, undercut Pakistani influence," says analyst Ahmed Rashid, who has written extensively on the region.
Pakistan has had misgivings about increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan since the Taleban were ousted.
President Pervez Musharraf has openly accused Afghan President Hamid Karzai of kow-towing to India. Islamabad has also said that the Indian consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad are funnelling arms and money to insurgents in Pakistan's troubled Balochistan region.
India is sponsoring vocational training of Afghan nationals
All this once provoked President Hamid Karzai, who went to university in India, to say: "If Pakistan is worried about the role of India, let me assure [you], I have been very specific in telling the Indians that they cannot use Afghan soil for acts of aggression against another country."
Analysts say Pakistan believes its influence is declining in post-war Afghanistan.
"India's success in Afghanistan stirred up a hornet's nest in Islamabad which came to believe that India was 'taking over Afghanistan'," says Ahmed Rashid in his new book Descent Into Chaos.
Also, local Taleban have attacked and kidnapped Indians in the country.
Changing fortunes
There have been explosions and grenade attacks on the Indian consulates in Herat and Jalalabad.
In January, two Indian and 11 Afghan security personnel were killed and several injured in an attack on the road that India is building, which will link the western cities of Zaranj and Herat with Kandahar in the south.
In November 2005, a driver with India's state-run Border Roads Organisation was abducted and killed by the Taleban while working on the road.
There have been other attacks on Indians too.
In 2003, an Indian national working for a construction company was killed by unknown attackers in Kabul's Taimani district.
In 2006, an Indian telecommunications engineer was abducted and killed in the southern province in Zabul.
India's fortunes in Afghanistan have swung back and forth for much of the past two decades
A staunch ally of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, India supported the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
This decision made India vastly unpopular among Afghans.
President Musharraf has accused Afghanistan of kow-towing to India
A decade later, it continued to back the Communist-regime of President Najibullah, while Pakistan threw its entire support behind the ethnic Pashtun mujahideen warlords, particularly the Islamist Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who were fighting the Soviet Union.
So when the Taleban swept to power and put an end to a bloody civil conflict among warlords, India was left without any influence in the country.
It ended up backing the Northern Alliance, which controlled territory north of the Shomali plains near Kabul.
Pakistan, on the other hand, backed and recognised the pariah Taleban regime and gained further strategic depth in the region.
Afghanistan's interior ministry says it believes the attack on the Indian embassy was carried out "in co-ordination and consultation with an active intelligence service in the region".
It is clearly alluding to Pakistani agents, who have been blamed for a number of attacks in Afghanistan.
We may never know precisely who carried out the attack.
But the bombing points to the "Great Game" still being played out between neighbours seeking to gain influence in Afghanistan.
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AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE
FEATURES AND ANALYSIS
Unfulfilled dreams
Social disparity, corruption and instability plague Afghanistan
A tribute to Abdul Samad Rohani
Under strain
Nato at pains to dismiss tensions
Why Taleban feel confident
UK-Afghan ties hit a low
Drug bazaar
Women under siege
Schools try to make new start
BACKGROUND
In graphics: Harsh realities
Q&A: Isaf troops explained
Quick guide: Afghanistan
Key players
Who are the Taleban?
HAVE YOUR SAY
Afghan village life
Have things got better two years on? Your questions answered
Your questions answered
Should Nato send more troops?
VIDEO AND AUDIO
Snapshots of life in Kabul
Taleban still defiant
IN DEPTH
Afghanistan's future
RELATED INTERNET LINKS
Afghan government
Indian government
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites
TOP SOUTH ASIA STORIES
Bomb rocks India embassy in Kabul
Kashmir leader quits in land row
Hunt for clues in Pakistan attack
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After the fall of the Taleban in 2001 India moved quickly to regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan.
It opened two new consulates in Herat and Mazhar-e-Sharif and reopened two others in Kandahar and Jalalabad which had been shut since 1979.
India also became one of Kabul's leading donors - it has pledged to spend $750m on helping rebuild the country's shattered infrastructure.
Funds have been committed for education, health, power and telecommunications. There has also been money in the form of food aid and help to strengthen governance.
India is erecting power transmission lines in the north, building more than 200km (125 miles) of road, digging tube wells in six provinces, running sanitation projects in Kabul, and working on lighting up 100 villages using solar energy.
It has given at least three Airbus planes to Afghanistan's ailing national airline. Several thousand Indians are engaged in development work.
'High profile'
Bilateral trade has grown rapidly, reaching $225m in 2006-2007.
"India's reconstruction strategy was designed to win over every sector of Afghan society, give India a high profile with Afghans, gain the maximum political advantage and, of course, undercut Pakistani influence," says analyst Ahmed Rashid, who has written extensively on the region.
Pakistan has had misgivings about increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan since the Taleban were ousted.
President Pervez Musharraf has openly accused Afghan President Hamid Karzai of kow-towing to India. Islamabad has also said that the Indian consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad are funnelling arms and money to insurgents in Pakistan's troubled Balochistan region.
India is sponsoring vocational training of Afghan nationals
All this once provoked President Hamid Karzai, who went to university in India, to say: "If Pakistan is worried about the role of India, let me assure [you], I have been very specific in telling the Indians that they cannot use Afghan soil for acts of aggression against another country."
Analysts say Pakistan believes its influence is declining in post-war Afghanistan.
"India's success in Afghanistan stirred up a hornet's nest in Islamabad which came to believe that India was 'taking over Afghanistan'," says Ahmed Rashid in his new book Descent Into Chaos.
Also, local Taleban have attacked and kidnapped Indians in the country.
Changing fortunes
There have been explosions and grenade attacks on the Indian consulates in Herat and Jalalabad.
In January, two Indian and 11 Afghan security personnel were killed and several injured in an attack on the road that India is building, which will link the western cities of Zaranj and Herat with Kandahar in the south.
In November 2005, a driver with India's state-run Border Roads Organisation was abducted and killed by the Taleban while working on the road.
There have been other attacks on Indians too.
In 2003, an Indian national working for a construction company was killed by unknown attackers in Kabul's Taimani district.
In 2006, an Indian telecommunications engineer was abducted and killed in the southern province in Zabul.
India's fortunes in Afghanistan have swung back and forth for much of the past two decades
A staunch ally of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, India supported the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
This decision made India vastly unpopular among Afghans.
President Musharraf has accused Afghanistan of kow-towing to India
A decade later, it continued to back the Communist-regime of President Najibullah, while Pakistan threw its entire support behind the ethnic Pashtun mujahideen warlords, particularly the Islamist Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who were fighting the Soviet Union.
So when the Taleban swept to power and put an end to a bloody civil conflict among warlords, India was left without any influence in the country.
It ended up backing the Northern Alliance, which controlled territory north of the Shomali plains near Kabul.
Pakistan, on the other hand, backed and recognised the pariah Taleban regime and gained further strategic depth in the region.
Afghanistan's interior ministry says it believes the attack on the Indian embassy was carried out "in co-ordination and consultation with an active intelligence service in the region".
It is clearly alluding to Pakistani agents, who have been blamed for a number of attacks in Afghanistan.
We may never know precisely who carried out the attack.
But the bombing points to the "Great Game" still being played out between neighbours seeking to gain influence in Afghanistan.
E-mail this to a friend Printable version
Bookmark with:
Delicious Digg reddit Facebook StumbleUpon
What are these?
Advertisement
AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE
FEATURES AND ANALYSIS
Unfulfilled dreams
Social disparity, corruption and instability plague Afghanistan
A tribute to Abdul Samad Rohani
Under strain
Nato at pains to dismiss tensions
Why Taleban feel confident
UK-Afghan ties hit a low
Drug bazaar
Women under siege
Schools try to make new start
BACKGROUND
In graphics: Harsh realities
Q&A: Isaf troops explained
Quick guide: Afghanistan
Key players
Who are the Taleban?
HAVE YOUR SAY
Afghan village life
Have things got better two years on? Your questions answered
Your questions answered
Should Nato send more troops?
VIDEO AND AUDIO
Snapshots of life in Kabul
Taleban still defiant
IN DEPTH
Afghanistan's future
RELATED INTERNET LINKS
Afghan government
Indian government
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites
TOP SOUTH ASIA STORIES
Bomb rocks India embassy in Kabul
Kashmir leader quits in land row
Hunt for clues in Pakistan attack
| News feeds
MOST POPULAR STORIES NOW
E-MAILED READ WATCHED/LISTENED 50 office-speak phrases you love to hate
Dog enjoys motorbike rides
Holocaust 'ban' e-mail confusion
Man dies during Pamplona festival
Deadly dog parasite found in city
Most popular now, in detail E-MAILED READ WATCHED/LISTENED Porn appears on rugby programme
Mosley denies 'Nazi-themed orgy'
Australian PM in new nude art row
Bomb rocks India embassy in Kabul
Day in pictures
Most popular now, in detail E-MAILED READ WATCHED/LISTENED Injuries in Bull-run fiesta
The musical toilet from Japan
Dog enjoys motorbike rides
Blast rocks Afghan capital
One-Minute World News
Most popular now, in detail
Sunday, July 6, 2008
PM to raise climate change issue at G8
The Manmohan-Bush summit in the sidelines of the G8 summit in Hokkaido is expected to work out a tentative plan of action for the next two stages, of the nuclear deal — approvals from IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
By itself, the G8 summit is overflowing with issues — from environment to major economies to Africa, from world economy to oil and food prices.
In a statement on the eve of his visit, Manmohan Singh said he would raise a number of issues from India's perspectives. They included the state of the world economy, development, trade, transfer of technology, energy and food security.
"I will, in particular, highlight the impact of the sharp rise in fuel prices on the global economy and the need for joint action by both producing and consuming nations," he said. But there is little expectation that substantial progress can be made on any of the issues. In fact, if any international initiative has any chance of a breakthrough, it will be the Indian nuclear agreement. Through July 8 and 9, the PM and his top officials — national security adviser MK Narayanan, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and his special envoy Shyam Saran — will pump flesh and lobby with NSG members.
Climate change and energy security, which are top of the agenda at this summit, will be utilized by India to push the deal. Just a cursory look can show how important the last few G8 summits have been for the nuclear deal. In 2007, despite an exasperated Manmohan Singh strongly objecting to being relegated to a breakfast meeting, it was the G8 summit that delivered a breakthrough in the nuclear deal, when Narayanan worked out with his US counterpart Stephen Hadley the details of a stand-alone reprocessing plant that cleared the reprocessing hurdle in the 123 negotiations.
As a matter of fact, it was the 2005 Gleaneagles summit that coalesced the Indian and US intentions to tie environmental concerns with the nuclear deal. Singh, who was in Washington barely a week later to sign the July 18 joint statement with George Bush, actually did the legwork on the deal at the G8 summit. And in 2008, the G8 summit is again vitally important for an India wanting to convince the world to give it a leg up in high-tech commerce by acquiescing to a unique nuclear deal.
The difficulties stem from not merely the fact that time is really tight for the deal, but in the positions of the leaders themselves. Bush is on his last few months, with declining clout, while across the Atlantic, Brown is fighting for his own political survival. Medvedev is too new at the job to make any real difference as is Italian PM Berlusconi. Sarkozy is actually the tallest European leader at present, along with Merkel, whose country, Germany, holds the chair in NSG this year and will be the one to pilot the nuclear deal through the grouping.
Fukuda is also on a political downslide. Besides, he’s much more intent in repairing relations with China than with India. Besides, the Japanese are not at all comfortable with the nuclear discussions taking centrestage at the summit in Japan, for obvious reasons.
On the eve of his departure, the PM said, "Today, India's views are heard with respect, and there is recognition of the fact that solutions to global issues require India's involvement." That will also be the hope on the nuclear deal.
By itself, the G8 summit is overflowing with issues — from environment to major economies to Africa, from world economy to oil and food prices.
In a statement on the eve of his visit, Manmohan Singh said he would raise a number of issues from India's perspectives. They included the state of the world economy, development, trade, transfer of technology, energy and food security.
"I will, in particular, highlight the impact of the sharp rise in fuel prices on the global economy and the need for joint action by both producing and consuming nations," he said. But there is little expectation that substantial progress can be made on any of the issues. In fact, if any international initiative has any chance of a breakthrough, it will be the Indian nuclear agreement. Through July 8 and 9, the PM and his top officials — national security adviser MK Narayanan, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and his special envoy Shyam Saran — will pump flesh and lobby with NSG members.
Climate change and energy security, which are top of the agenda at this summit, will be utilized by India to push the deal. Just a cursory look can show how important the last few G8 summits have been for the nuclear deal. In 2007, despite an exasperated Manmohan Singh strongly objecting to being relegated to a breakfast meeting, it was the G8 summit that delivered a breakthrough in the nuclear deal, when Narayanan worked out with his US counterpart Stephen Hadley the details of a stand-alone reprocessing plant that cleared the reprocessing hurdle in the 123 negotiations.
As a matter of fact, it was the 2005 Gleaneagles summit that coalesced the Indian and US intentions to tie environmental concerns with the nuclear deal. Singh, who was in Washington barely a week later to sign the July 18 joint statement with George Bush, actually did the legwork on the deal at the G8 summit. And in 2008, the G8 summit is again vitally important for an India wanting to convince the world to give it a leg up in high-tech commerce by acquiescing to a unique nuclear deal.
The difficulties stem from not merely the fact that time is really tight for the deal, but in the positions of the leaders themselves. Bush is on his last few months, with declining clout, while across the Atlantic, Brown is fighting for his own political survival. Medvedev is too new at the job to make any real difference as is Italian PM Berlusconi. Sarkozy is actually the tallest European leader at present, along with Merkel, whose country, Germany, holds the chair in NSG this year and will be the one to pilot the nuclear deal through the grouping.
Fukuda is also on a political downslide. Besides, he’s much more intent in repairing relations with China than with India. Besides, the Japanese are not at all comfortable with the nuclear discussions taking centrestage at the summit in Japan, for obvious reasons.
On the eve of his departure, the PM said, "Today, India's views are heard with respect, and there is recognition of the fact that solutions to global issues require India's involvement." That will also be the hope on the nuclear deal.
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