Wednesday, July 9, 2008

PM talks nuclear with Bush who praises his "leadership"

Unfazed by the political turmoil in India, a confident Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today discussed "progress" on the Indo-US nuclear agreement with President George W Bush who said the deal is important for both the countries and heaped praise on the Indian leader "for his leadership at home".

The two leaders spoke in unison on strengthening the bilateral "strategic relationship" as Singh took a two-hour drive from Sapporo to meet Bush in hot springs resort of Hotel Windsor on Mt Poromoi on the sidelines of the G-8 summit, hours before the Left parties were to formally withdraw support to the UPA government on the nuclear deal.

"Our relationship with the United States has never been in such good shape as it is today.... And it is the intention of my government... Whether it is a question of climate change... Global economy, India and US must stand tall, stand shoulder to shoulder, and that's what is going to happen," Singh said after the 50-minute meeting that stretched beyond the scheduled time.

Both Singh and Bush expressed mutual admiration for each other and spoke of the need for closer relationship between the two countries.

"We talked about the India-US nuclear deal, and how important that is for our respective countries," Bush said as the two leaders appeared before the press in a relaxed mood and displayed a lot of personal warmth.

"I respect the Prime Minister a lot. I also respect India a lot, and I think it's very important that the United States continues to work with our friends to develop not only a new strategic relationship, but a relationship that addresses some of the world's problems," the President said

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Singh to Seek IAEA Approval for U.S. Nuclear Accord

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said he'll seek approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency for the U.S. nuclear accord ``as soon as possible,'' after securing the political support needed to remain in power.

Singh, speaking hours after a key regional party backed the agreement, said the withdrawal earlier of his communist allies won't topple the coalition. The prime minister meets U.S. President George W. Bush tomorrow after pledging to move ahead on their 2005 deal that will allow India to import technology and fuel without joining the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

``I just learned it but I don't think it will affect the stability of our government,'' Singh said in Sapporo, Japan.

Singh's Congress Party has spent the past month securing backing from the rival Samajwadi Party so he can win a parliamentary vote on the government's survival. In return, Samajwadi has said it will pressure Singh to remove Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram and Reserve Bank Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy for their inability to contain inflation.

``Samajwadi will interfere big time in the government's functioning,'' said Chandra Prakash Bhambri, a professor of politics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. ``The Congress-Samajwadi deal is a classic example of political opportunism.''

Pulling Out

The Communist parties earlier said they will submit a letter to President Pratibha Patil tomorrow stating they will end their four-year backing for Singh's government. They had threatened to pull out if Singh pursued the agreement, saying the deal will hinder India's ability to pursue an independent foreign policy.

``That time has come,'' Prakash Karat, leader of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), said at a press conference in New Delhi today.

The ruling United Progressive Alliance has 225 seats and relied on the Communists' 59 lawmakers for a majority in the 545- member lower house of parliament. With Samajwadi's 39 lawmakers, it will still need support from another nine members to reach the majority 273 mark.

The benchmark Sensitive Index recouped most of its losses on expectations Singh's government will remain in power. The Sensex ended 1.3 percent lower after falling as much as 3.5 percent.

The government is stable and will survive any confidence motion in parliament, Congress spokesman Manish Tewari said in a televised conference today.

Samajwadi Conditions

The Congress party had snubbed Samajwadi after national elections in May 2004 when it wanted to join the alliance. The Samajwadi Party said it will seek the removal of Singh's two economic policy makers and Oil Minister Murli Deora.

``It's the prerogative of the prime minister to remove them because of their failure to check inflation,'' Samajwadi General Secretary Amar Singh told reporters on July 3.

After securing political support for the agreement in India, Prime Minister Singh needs the nod from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group.

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said today that time is running short for the agreement to reach the U.S. Congress for approval before Bush's term ends this year.

It could be that Singh is ``ready to move forward, but it also could just as likely be that they have a little bit more work to do,'' Perona said in Tokayo, Japan, where the leaders are attending the Group of Eight summit. ``We obviously recognize, as well, that we have a limited number of legislative days for our Congress to get a lot of work done.''

India needs the deal to increase nuclear generation almost 10-fold and end blackouts in the world's second-most populous country after China. Orders for reactors worth $14 billion are already in the pipeline from suppliers including General Electric Co. and Westinghouse Electric Co.

Power and other infrastructure shortages shave about 2 percentage points from India's economic growth rate annually, the finance ministry estimates. India's $912 billion economy has grown an average 8.9 percent a year since 2003.

Commodities Slump as G-8 Says Oil, Food Prices Pose `Challenge'

Commodities tumbled for a third day, led by crude oil and corn, as Group of Eight leaders said rising energy and food costs pose a ``serious challenge'' to the global economy.

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index has dropped 4.2 percent in three sessions, led by slumping agricultural prices. Corn has plunged as warm weather in the U.S. Midwest improved crop conditions following floods last month in states including Iowa and Indiana. Crude oil has slumped 6.1 percent in two days.

Commodities are falling after their best first half in 35 years. Record prices for fuel, soybeans, wheat, copper and other raw materials are leading oil explorers, metal producers and farmers to increase supplies. Oil has dropped 6.6 percent from its record, and corn has declined almost 10 percent from the all-time high.

``We have peaked for oil for now,'' Polar Pacific Capital Managing Director David Bensimon said yesterday in an interview in Singapore. ``With agricultural commodities facing their own vulnerability, all of this will take the shine off commodities.''

The weighted UBS Bloomberg index dropped 34.62, or 2.1 percent, to 1,641.62 at 10:22 a.m. New York time. Yesterday, the gauge, which measures 26 futures prices, fell 2.2 percent, the most since May 29.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials fell 5.32, or 1.2 percent, to 453.72. Yesterday, the gauge tumbled 2.8 percent, the most since March.

Surging energy costs have rippled through the global economy by sapping household budgets and boosting production costs. The World Bank has warned that 33 countries from Mexico to Yemen faced social unrest, partly because of higher food prices.

`Risks Persist'

``We have strong concerns about the sharp rise in oil prices,'' the Group of Eight said in a statement today in Toyako, Japan, where the leaders are holding their annual summit. ``The world economy is now facing uncertainty and downside risks persist.''

Crude-oil futures for August delivery fell $5.12, or 3.6 percent, to $136.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Before today, the price almost doubled in the past 12 months, reaching a record $145.85 on July 3.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 27 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $7.20 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price still has doubled in the past 12 months, reaching a record $7.9925 on June 27.

``All the bad economic news is making people take a second look at commodities,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``Commodities were purchased as a hedge against inflation. A global recession is looking more likely, and it's the greatest weapon in the fight against inflation

Left withdraws support to UPA govt

The Left parties have decided to withdraw support to the UPA government, after a crucial meeting of party leaders in New Delhi.

Top Left party leaders met here to formulate an "appropriate" response to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's announcement that the government would approach the IAEA for the nuclear deal.

The Left coordination committee meeting, which began at CPM headquarters here, was attended by CPM general secretary Prakash Karat, his CPI counterpart A B Bardhan and other senior leaders like D Raja (CPI), RSP leaders T J Chandrachoodan and Abani Roy and Forward Bloc's Debabrata Biswas and G Devarajan.

The meeting, which was earlier fixed at 4 pm, was rescheduled to 11:30 am after Singh's announcement on Monday that the government would "soon" approach the IAEA for a safeguards agreement for the nuclear deal with the US.

Ahead of the meeting, Karat told reporters on Tuesday morning that the meeting would be a "crucial" one as there was "nothing more" on Left's course of action with regard to the Prime Minister's announcement on the nuclear deal.

Karat said the Prime Minister had made the announcement on the deal in a foreign land which he could have told the Left parties here.

The Left parties had earlier stated that they would withdraw support to the Congress-led government the moment it decides to go to the IAEA. Karat has said the Left parties will meet and give an "appropriate" response to the PM's statement.

Left leaders were livid over the Prime Minister's announcement, which came barely an hour after the government sought another round of meeting of the UPA-Left committee on the nuclear deal on July 10, saying they were "insulted".

"Only thing I am saying now is that we will take a crucial decision. Singh has hoodwinked the Left parties, the UPA allies and the people. We ask him to behave in a manner befitting his post," Chandrachoodan said.

Noting that the Left had maintained civility by publicly saying that they will wait till Singh returns, the RSP leader said, "now the UPA leadership should not expect the Left to show the courtesy by waiting till then."

Obama’s Campaign Shifts to a Bigger Stage for His Big Night

Borrowing from the political repertory of John F. Kennedy, Senator Barack Obama will accept his party’s nomination outside of the main Democratic convention hall this August, in the Denver Broncos’ football stadium that seats more than 75,000 people.

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Related
The Caucus: Obama Picks Stadium for Acceptance Speech (July 7, 2008)
Delays and Rising Costs for Convention Raise Worries for Democrats (July 6, 2008)

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Senator Barack Obama between events on Monday in Charlotte, N.C. No stranger to large crowds, he is planning for another one on Aug. 28.
The move, rumored for days and announced by the Obama campaign on Monday, set off a round of complaints from news executives, who for more than a year have been drawing up elaborate plans for a convention that was to culminate in the main hall, at the Pepsi Center in Denver.

But Mr. Obama’s aides were clearly willing to pay the price of some carping among the news media in the dog days of July in return for being able to take advantage of the candidate’s ability to draw stadium-level crowds when millions will be tuning in toward the end of August.

The move will also be rich in historical resonance.

Mr. Obama, who will be the first African-American presidential nominee for a major party, will give his acceptance speech at Invesco Field on Aug. 28, the 45th anniversary of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” address. And he will be the first nominee to give his speech outside the convention hall since Kennedy did so in 1960, when he drew a crowd some estimated at 50,000 at the Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles.

Though clearly enticed by what they believe will be a powerful television image of Mr. Obama speaking before tens of thousands of people, his aides said Monday that they hoped to open the convention to regular voters who typically did not attend party conventions. The Pepsi Center, with a capacity of 21,000 people, would accommodate only the usual convention crowd, party officials said.

“This convention is meant to be opened up to the American people,” Howard Dean, the Democratic Party chairman, said in a conference call with reporters.

Mr. Dean acknowledged that the convention host committee would need to raise more money to pay for the secondary venue, which will also require additional security arrangements.

The news media will also bear added costs. Executives said they would have to reconfigure plans long in the making, a particular headache for the television networks, which build elaborate sets for the conventions to showcase their stars. The acceptance speeches are traditionally when television news divisions draw their largest ratings of the conventions.

“It’s a bit of a monkey wrench in the plans, but nothing we can’t handle,” said Marty Ryan, the executive producer in charge of political programming at Fox News Channel.

David Bohrman, the Washington bureau chief of CNN, said his network was moving ahead with plans to build a platform on the floor of the Pepsi Center, but executives at several other networks said planning would require further review.

The announcement added an element to what has been a regular dance between campaign planners and the networks over how much time they will devote to the conventions. But this year has seen an unusual amount of interest in campaign coverage, along with high ratings, diminishing some of the networks’ traditional leverage.

“With all due respect, the networks are going to cover whatever sausage the campaign puts out,” said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who ran Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign. “They don’t have a choice.”

Anita Dunn, a communications strategist for Mr. Obama, said the campaign was sympathetic to the effect the new plan would have on the news media.

Ms. Dunn said the late change was unavoidable given how long the primary season lasted. “We would have liked to have been planning this in February and March,” she said. “It didn’t work out that way.”

Ms. Dunn said the stadium was about a 10-minute shuttle ride from the Pepsi Center, where most of the news media will be stationed.

The stadium is to be filled with thousands of local supporters. And in a fund-raising appeal e-mailed on Monday, the Obama campaign manager, David Plouffe, said the campaign would choose 10 people who donate at least $5 before July 31 to attend the convention with guests.

The outdoor venue brings some risks. But Ms. Dunn said the campaign had studied historical weather patterns and was confident that it would not rain. But, she said, there are contingency plans if it does.

For its part, the Republican National Convention Committee released a statement dismissing the venue change as favoring style over substance. “Senator Obama and his fellow Democrats are more focused on stagecraft and theatrics than providing real solutions to the challenges facing our nation,” the statement said.

IAEA meet on July 28 to approve safeguards

The IAEA has scheduled a meeting of its board of governors on July 28 to approve the India-specific safeguards agreement. The Manmohan Singh government is expected to notify the agreement with the IAEA secretariat in the second week of July.

Reports from Vienna quoting diplomatic sources said a formal announcement on the board meeting will be made after the subject is notified with the IAEA secretariat. The Nuclear Suppliers group (NSG) is expected to meet within days after the IAEA board’s approval of the safeguards agreement.

On his part, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed the hope that the IAEA’s board of governors would take quick decisions. “We have an agreed text which has been agreed to by the staff of the IAEA. I expect then that the process should not take too long. But the board of governors will have to take the call and I cannot anticipate how long,” he said.

Mr Singh said the deal has the support of all major powers — US, Russia, Britain, France. “I don’t expect any problem. But I can’t anticipate how much more time this will take,” Mr Singh said.

Mr Singh will be meeting president George Bush in Japan to discuss the progress on the deal. The US president has been pressing Mr Singh hard to work out the deal.

The non-proliferation Ayatollahs at the Capitol Hill have been warning against rushing the nuclear deal. According to them, the president “gave away far too much and got far too little for the deal.”

An editorial in the New York Times had said it would be “a mistake for the US to try and ram through the remaining approvals by the International Atomic Energy Agency board, the Nuclear Suppliers Group and Congress just to meet the artificial deadline of Bush’s presidency.” The non-proliferation lobby wants detailed discussions both by the IAEA and NSG.

Those engaged in the negotiations with the Left here, however, were hopeful of the IAEA wrapping up the safeguards agreement at the July 28 meeting itself. The efforts are aimed at making the deal for the US Congress’ consideration in the third week of September.

'RIL wants to derail talks'

RCOM said on Monday that RIL's reaction showed that its “sole objective is to derail talks with MTN and frustrate a possible combination”. RIL, on its part, did not offer any comments either on the developments or on what RCOM had to say about it.

Meanwhile, a British financial daily carried a report quoting “a person familiar with the talks” between MTN and RCOM and suggested that the South African firm is considering walking away from the deal, fearing legal action if it goes through.

RCOM sources and media reports maintain that talks with MTN are on and it could be close to a deal. RCOM currently serves 48 million subscribers in India, while MTN serves over 68 million subscribers across 21 countries, and the union — if it does happen — would lead to the creation of one of the world's largest telecom companies serving nearly 116 million customers. RCOM had informed stock exchanges on May 26 that it had entered into exclusive negotiations with the MTN Group for a period of 45 days, for a potential combination of their businesses.

Thereafter, on June 13, news trickled out that RIL, which had reluctantly given up the telecommunications business when the brothers parted ways, had written to the MTN board informing them about a clause in the family settlement reserving the first right of refusal for Mukesh Ambani or his companies in the event RCOM decided to sell a company. According to them, this gives RIL up to four months to decide in favour of or against any deal, which poses a huge roadblock.

Shortly after RIL's letter, a Dow Jones report quoted an MTN official as saying that while the two firms were still talking, the feud between the two brothers may derail the deal. Last week, RCOM's stock fell. MTN's attempts at hooking up with a telecom player in India have been hit with controversies from the very start. MTN first engaged in a month-long discussion with the Bharti group.

Bharti was reportedly willing to pay $50-60 billion for the company, but talks broke off when MTN insisted that Bharti become its subsidiary. Temasek is learned to have been uncomfortable with the management structure — effect of structure on minority shareholder rights.