Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Bernanke Sees Hopeful Signs but No Quick Recovery

The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, said on Tuesday that the economy appeared to be stabilizing on many fronts but cautioned that a recovery was still months away and that “further sizable job losses” will continue even after an upturn begins.

“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” Mr. Bernanke told the congressional Joint Economic Committee, according to his prepared remarks.

“Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while,” he predicted. “We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly.”

Notwithstanding his caveats, the Fed chairman gave his most upbeat assessment since the United States fell into its most severe financial crisis since the Depression and its steepest recession since at least the early 1980s.

He noted that consumer spending, which sank sharply the second half of 2008, actually grew in the first quarter of this year. Sales of existing homes have been “fairly stable” since late last year, in part because plunging home prices have made houses more affordable and interest rates on some fixed-rate mortgages have fallen below 5 percent.

Mr. Bernanke said conditions in credit markets have revived slightly in recent weeks. Homeowners are refinancing mortgages at a rapid clip, and financial institutions have stepped up their sale of securities backed by of credit card loans, automobile debt and student loans.

At the same time, the Fed chairman made it clear that the recession is not yet over and that many people will experience harder times in the months ahead. The nation has already lost five million jobs since the recession began more than one year ago, and unemployment usually continues to climb for many months after economic growth begins.

Mr. Bernanke noted that business investment was still “extremely weak,” which means that businesses are still contracting and will continue to shed workers. The unemployment rate hit 8.5 percent in March, and the Labor Department is expected to report on Friday that the jobless rate jumped sharply again in April.

The Fed chairman suggested that many of the nation’s 19 biggest banks will be instructed to raise additional capital when the Fed announces the results of “stress tests” on Thursday, and he tacitly acknowledged that the federal government will become a bigger shareholder in at least some of those institutions.

The tests are designed to determine whether the banks would have enough capital if the economic downturn is worse than expected. The banks have six months to raise that capital from private investors, but will have to take government money in exchange for shares of common stock if private money is unavailable.

“Following the announcement of the results, bank holding companies will be required to develop comprehensive capital plans,” Mr. Bernanke said, without specifying an exact number. Asked if he expected banks to raise the “majority” of the required capital from private sources, Mr. Bernanke predicted only that the amount could be “significant.”

Mr. Bernanke came under sharp criticism for his decision against immediately stopping credit card companies from abruptly doubling or tripling their interest rates to consumers, often for people who have remained current on all their payments.

The Fed is preparing new protections for credit card customers, but it will not impose them until much later this year. Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said he had asked Mr. Bernanke to use the Fed’s emergency powers to act immediately but that the Fed chairman refused to do so.

“You’ve acted swiftly to use your emergency powers to stabilize teetering financial institutions,” Mr. Schumer said. “What about the family that’s had a $10,000 balance and had its rate jump from 7 to 23 percent?”

Mr. Bernanke said he was “very concerned” about such practices, but said that cutting short the normal process for approving new regulations might simply provoke banks to raise their rates even more quickly or to cut many customers off entirely.

“It’s a quandary,” he told Mr. Schumer.

“I’m very frustrated,” the senator responded. “You could have figured out a better way than the one you have chosen.”
look at the rhetoric surrounding Elections 2009 and wonder — has any political party promised to improve the state of the environment for you and me? Or thought about our right to fresh air or clean water — commodities that have become a rarity in an urbanising India?

Over the past few weeks I’ve studied the manifestos of all political parties and silently witnessed the city around me change. Ancient trees are being decapitated for wider roads, a park’s been taken over for a multiplex and a storm drain, a barrier against monsoon floods, has been filled with sand to make way for a parking lot. Grab and construct is the new mantra for the ‘development’ of our cities.

We spend three hours on an average on roads, stuck in traffic jams, while one in every five Indians suffers from respiratory disorders. Indian cities are headed towards an urban disaster. Take the depleting quality of the air we breathe or the water we drink (that's if we get it in our taps); while rivers turn into noxious black threads with methane bubbling on their surfaces and landfill sites expand.

Analysts predict that in the next thirty years, more than half of India will be living in urban areas. But does any leader or political party have a vision to address the impending environmental problems? Caste and religion continue to dominate the rhetoric of Election 2009, but is global India, with a growth rate of 9 per cent, doing anything about the toxic gas chambers that are our cities or the brown sludge flowing from our taps?

You could dismiss my angst for clean air and water as an elitist preoccupation that doesn’t affect a majority of the population. But take a look at the alarming figures collected by the Central Pollution Control Board and the Centre for Science and Environment. Out of the 100 Indian cities monitored, almost half have critical levels of particulate matter. Fifty-two cities hit critical levels, 36 have high levels and a mere 19 are at moderate levels. Only three cities — Dewas, Tirupati and Kozhikode — recorded low pollution levels.

Adding to the gas chambers are toxic gases like nitrogen oxide — a major contributor to acid rain and global warming — that are on the rise even in smaller cities like Jamshedpur, Dhanbad, Nashik and Chandrapur. Indian cities can be cured of the curse of pollution, but various policy measures will have to be initiated. One way out could be the introduction of compressed natural gas in the public transport system, and financial incentives for people to buy more fuel-efficient cars or to switch to public transport.

If we look at the availability of water in Indian cities, the situation is no different. According to a 2007 World Bank study on 27 cities, the average duration of water supply was not more than four hours and in some, like Rajkot, it’s less than 0.3 hours. Not even one Indian city gets continuous water supply, and a majority are in the red in terms of plummeting ground water tables. Besides, in the poorer parts of our nation, people have to buy water and have to spend, on an average, one to two hours per day foraging for it.

And what about the impending threat from climate change? There is now enough scientific evidence to show that climate change will first affect the poor, with disastrous consequences for India's farmers and fishermen. But has any political party woken up to this threat? The BJP, interestingly, has a separate section on the environment in its manifesto, referring to the need to move towards a low carbon economy. Does that mean it will scrap the 54-odd thermal power projects that were cleared under the UPA government? Climate change may already be upon us in many ways. But one look at the National Climate Change Action Plan launched by the Prime Minister will tell us that most of the targets under the eight missions are non-measurable, so there’s no way to measure the outgoing government’s performance.

And how ‘green’ are our politicians themselves? While one has drained the wetlands of an endangered bird only to build an airstrip in his native village, another, with strong prime ministerial aspirations, spent more than Rs 80 crore ravaging a green belt on the edge of the Okhla bird sanctuary, while yet another in Madhya Pradesh got the course of a river diverted, to make it flow close to his private resort. Media campaigns ask voters to stop complaining and go out and vote. Yes, I too will go and vote. But I am still waiting for that one political party or candidate who promises me, a citizen of India, my right to clean air and water.

ecxcerpts from bahar dutt as publised in Hindusthan times

US needs 'digital warfare force'

The head of America's National Security Agency says that America needs to build a digital warfare force for the future, according to reports.

Lt Gen Keith Alexander, who also heads the Pentagon's new Cyber Command, outlined his views in a report for the House Armed Services subcommittee.

In it, he stated that the US needed to reorganise its offensive and defensive cyber operations.

The general also said more resources and training were needed.

The report, part of which was outlined in an Associated Press news agency story, is due to be presented to the subcommittee on Tuesday.

During the past six months, the Pentagon spent more than £67m ($100m) responding to and repairing damage from cyber attacks and other network problems.

Gen Keith Alexander's new department, to be based in Fort Meade in Maryland, will be part of the US Strategic Command - currently responsible for securing the US military's networks - and will work alongside the US Department of Homeland Security.

It is thought the new department would open in October and be at full strength in 2010.

Self defence

A separate document, from the US Air Force's chief information officer Lt Gen William Shelton, said the US relies heavily on industry efforts to respond to cyber threats which, he says, "does not keep pace with the threat".


The proposed digital warfare force would be based in Maryland
Peter Wood, operations chief with First Base Technologies and an expert in cyber-warfare, said that the US were entirely within their rights to protect themselves.

"My own view is that the only way to counteract both criminal and espionage activity online is to be proactive. If the US is taking a formal approach to this, then that has to be a good thing.

"The Chinese are viewed as the source of a great many attacks on western infrastructure and, just recently, the US national grid. If that is determined to be an organised attack, I would want to go and take down the source of those attacks," he said.

"The only problem is that the internet - by its very nature - has no borders and if the US takes on the mantle of the world's police; that might not go down so well."

The submissions to the House Armed Services subcommittee comes a few days after the National Research Council - part of the United States National Academy of Sciences - said that current US policies on cyber warfare are "ill-formed, lack adequate oversight and require a broad public debate".

The report went on to say that the "undeveloped and uncertain nature" of the US governments cyber warfare policies could lead to them being misused in a possible crisis.

The US administration is due imminently to publish the results of a 60-day review on cyber-security ordered by President Obama.




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Swat residents 'flee their homes'

Residents of Pakistan's Swat Valley are reported to be fleeing their homes despite authorities rescinding an earlier order for them to leave.

A peace deal between the government and Taleban militants in the region appears close to collapse after the army said militants attacked police checkpoints.

There has also been heavy fighting to the west and east of Swat.

A major army operation against the Taleban appears likely within a few days, says the BBC's Syed Shoaib Hasan.

Our Islamabad correspondent says the army seems in an uncompromising mood, with the renewed violence apparently the death knell for the peace deal, which has held since February.


See a map of the region

In other violence, a suicide bomber killed four security personnel near Peshawar, North West Frontier Province.

Police said the attacker rammed an explosive-laden car into a military vehicle.

It is not yet known who is behind the attack, but Taleban militants are known to be active in the province.

Patrols

Pakistani Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain said the government was preparing six camps to cater for up to 500,000 people fleeing fighting in the region, AP news agency reported.

The town of Dargai, near the Swat border, is reported to be where at least one camp is being built.



Armed Taleban fighters have been openly patrolling, the army says
A Pakistani military spokesman, Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, told the BBC the Taleban had violated all the norms of the peace deal in Swat Valley.

He said the Taleban had sent out armed patrols and had gone into the neighbouring Dir and Buner districts.

The army says militants attacked checkpoints and bases in four different locations in Swat, and that armed militants are openly patrolling the streets of the district's main city Mingora.

A witness in Mingora told AP that black-turbaned militants were deployed on most streets and on high buildings, and that security forces were barricaded in their bases.

Khushal Khan, district co-ordination officer in Swat, told the BBC that residents of areas around Mingora had been told to evacuate because there was a fear that the Taleban could use heavy weapons to attack security forces.

But he said the order was later rescinded when the attacks no longer seemed likely.

However, reports say residents are fleeing in their hundreds anyway, taking advantage of the government's lifting of a curfew.

Taleban spokesman Muslim Khan said that the militants were in control of "90%" of the valley.

He told AP that Taleban actions were in response to the army violating the peace deal. He said the peace deal had "been dead" since the army's recent offensive in neighbouring Buner district.

"Everything will be OK once our rulers stop bowing before America," he said.

Washington talks

The deteriorating situation in Pakistan's north-west came as President Asif Ali Zardari was preparing for talks in Washington on Wednesday.

Analysts say US President Barack Obama will seek assurances from Mr Zardari that his country's nuclear arsenal is safe from Taleban insurgents and that Pakistan intended to root-out militant groups and defeat them.

Militants fought the army in the region from August 2007 until this year's deal.

Under the deal the Taleban were expected to disarm.

The Taleban say they will not lay down their arms until Islamic Sharia law is fully implemented in Swat.

They have banned the playing of music in cars and are also using mosques to invite local youth to join them.

Monday, May 4, 2009

ADB sees 'mild recovery' next year

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) called on Monday for a fundamental "rebalancing" of regional economies in response to the global crisis, while predicting a "mild recovery" next year.

Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda said the region would record only 3.4 percent growth this year but could expect a rebound to around 6.0 percent growth in 2010, as he opened the ADB's board of governors annual meeting in Bali.

"With strong national and regional efforts and a mild recovery expected in the global economy next year, developing Asia and the Pacific should bounce back to about 6.0 percent growth in 2010," he said.

"These are positive signs, therefore this should not be a time of despair."

He outlined a huge expansion in the ADB's lending plans to help stimulate developing economies across Asia, after shareholders agreed last week to triple the bank's capital base in response to the global downturn.

The bank will increase its overall lending assistance to the region's poorest countries by more than 10 billion dollars in 2009 and 2010, including three billion to meet "urgent needs stemming from the crisis," Kuroda said.

Some of that new lending would aim to help Asian economies adjust to plunging demand for their exports to markets such as Europe and the United States.

"The transfer of savings from one part of the world to another worked well when advanced economies could absorb production from developing economies, but the current state of the global economy suggests that era has passed," Kuroda said.

"By rebalancing export-driven growth with a greater reliance on domestic demand and consumption, Asia can lead the way in charting a new, globally beneficial development course."

Interest rate cuts and government spending will help spur the recovery in Asia, whose banks are not suffering problems on the same scale as their US and European peers, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Recent economic data have raised hopes that China could be the first major economy to disentangle itself from the worldwide crisis, providing new growth momentum for its trading partners across the region.

In India, expectations of a healthy harvest fuelling consumer spending has driven India's benchmark Sensex share index to a six-month high as fund managers switch their country ratings to "overweight" from "underweight."

Japan's factory output rose 1.6 percent in March from the previous month, the first increase since September, triggering a buying spree on the Japanese sharemarket last week.

Kuroda also called for changes to the global financial architecture to give voice to the aspirations of Asia, where powerhouses like China and India are emerging as rivals to US domination of the world economy.

Ten Asian countries plus China, Japan and South Korea agreed on Sunday to set up a 120-billion-dollar regional emergency fund to help Asian economies out of crises, a move Kuroda applauded.

"It is... important to create a financial architecture that gives developing countries a voice more commensurate with their share of world output and trade," he said.

His comments echoed China's calls for a greater say in international economic decision-making at institutions such as the IMF.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said "precautionary mechanisms" like the regional liquidity fund were necessary to "ensure foreign exchange stability and confidence" in crisis-hit local currencies.

He said Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, had learnt from the economic turmoil that swept Asia in the late 1990s and had launched "sweeping reforms" that helped it avoid recession in the current downturn.

The Indonesian economy is forecast to track the regional rebound, with growth of around four percent this year recovering to six percent in 2010.

Apartheid funded by the Indian tax-payer

In an era when one set of Indians is manning the world’s knowledge back-office with distinction, another set of children — in Madhya Pradesh, which the ruling BJP often showcases as a “model state” – has to face such discrimination and humiliation. Everyday.

This Indian version of apartheid is taking place in schools and childcare centres run by the government, and in schemes funded by the tax-payer’s — in other words, your – money.

They are forced to sit in separate rows, bring utensils from home or given food in plates marked boldly with permanent ink to distinguish them from the rest.According to a survey on social discrimination conducted by Jansahas, an NGO, and Unicef, in 24 villages across four districts – Ujjain, Sheopur, Katni and Jhabua – in Madhya Pradesh, more than 63 per cent of Dalit children are subjected to caste discrimination while being served mid-day meals in government schools.

They are forced to sit in separate rows, bring utensils from home or given food in plates marked boldly with permanent ink to distinguish them from the rest.

The Mid-Day Meal Scheme, funded by the government, is the world’s largest school lunch programme and covers 120 million children. Ironically, one of the key objectives of the scheme is to increase socialisation among children of different caste groups.

“As many as 40 per cent of Dalit students facing discrimination were given mid-day meals in plates specially set aside for them,” Jansahas activist Ashif Sheikh told Hindustan Times.

While some were asked to bring utensils from home, most were served their mid-day meals on leaf plates. Non-Dalits, however, were served on metal plates.

The survey found that most teachers were insensitive to the discrimination against Dalits because of caste-based traditions being followed in rural areas, he said.

In a majority of the schools surveyed, Dalit students were not allowed to sit in the front row. As many as 78 per cent of school-going Dalit students were backbenchers or forced away from the front row and subjected to casteist abuses.

And 79 per cent of such students were compelled to clean the schools. In some schools, this chore was given only to Dalit girls.

The survey found that the Anganwadi scheme, a government-sponsored mother and childcare scheme catering to children in the 0-6 age group, also discriminates against Dalits. About 59 per cent of Dalits said they desisted from sending their children to the local anganwadi facilities.

The victims claimed that Dalit children were not allowed to enter the anganwadis and were forced to accept nutritional supplements outside the building.

The survey concluded that caste discrimination is one of the prominent reasons for the absence of Dalit children from school.

Michael Hiltzik:Credit card companies as evil villains? It's not that simple

Is there any business in the United States more vilified than credit card lending?

The card companies stand accused by Congress and the Federal Reserve of gouging customers with impenetrable fees, enticing innocents to borrow themselves into bankruptcy, and blowing off cardholders who try to correct errors in their accounts.

Attacking these firms is a crowd-pleasing sport for lawmakers, in part because every constituent has a story about being mulcted by a card issuer. Last week the House of Representatives easily passed a credit card holders’ bill of rights. The Senate will take up a similar measure soon. President Obama has signaled his approval.

Someone has to stand up for these companies. I guess it'll have to be me.

Before I try to inject some perspective into the debate about card issuers, I'll stipulate that they've been guilty of genuinely sleazy behavior -- much of which is properly targeted by the measures in Washington.

They shouldn't be allowed to jack up the interest rate on card balances retroactively, except in rare cases. They should apply your payments to balances with the highest rates first. They shouldn't accept charges that put you over your credit limit and trigger a fee, if you request such a hard cap.

And they should be barred from marketing directly to young persons. Cards used to be hard to get if you had no credit history. But I could wallpaper my house with the come-ons that now come addressed to my college-age kids, a practice the banks must have learned from cigarette companies handing out free smokes at rock concerts.

But we routinely berate card issuers for actions that are actually prudent and wise. Certain purported sins, such as raising rates and cutting credit limits for some borrowers, merely ratchet back the loose standards that helped lead us to economic perdition. For years we cursed the banks for showering Americans with easy credit. Now we curse them for tightening up.

Because of their unsavory past, the issuers are unable to make this case for themselves. They remind me of some frat guys at my college who were guilty of only about half the things they were accused of, but what was true was bad enough. From them I learned this tenet of the court of public opinion: Once you've been caught firing guns at African American students from the frat house roof, no one will believe you're innocent of anything.

Still, it's proper to take an unemotional look at the rest of the prosecution brief against credit card companies.

One frequent complaint is that issuers arbitrarily jack up interest rates and slash credit limits even on customers with pristine records. Given the straitened means of many families in these tough times (the argument goes), that's like snatching away a lifeline when it's most needed.

"That's pretty nasty," says John Ulzheimer of credit.com, who appears ubiquitously on personal finance shows. The higher rates "make it harder for people to afford their existing balances," he says, and the lower limits can damage cardholders' credit scores, which get marked down when their balances come too close to their limits.

The real scandal, according to the common refrain, is that issuers such as American Express, Citigroup and Bank of America have received billions of bailout dollars from taxpayers. How dare they repay the favor by putting the squeeze on us?

This is where populism shades into demagoguery. Critics who argue that it's inappropriate for bailed-out banks to tighten credit terms on taxpayers have it exactly wrong: If we're footing the bill, we should praise these banks for being stingy with credit, not hammer them for it. It won't be any easier for them to pay us back if we hector them into maintaining the loose standards that produced this mess.

According to the latest data from Fitch Ratings, late payments on credit cards reached a record in February, with delinquencies close behind. The sad fact is that rising unemployment produces credit stress. Under the circumstances, tightening credit standards seems like a judicious precaution.

What about the claim that the issuers are perversely cutting limits for their highest-scoring, or safest, customers? It's true but misleading. Fair Isaac Corp., which invented the FICO score, found that of the 16% of consumers whose limits were cut between last April and October, two-thirds weren't guilty of any late payment or other "risk trigger."

Most of the reductions were applied to inactive or rarely utilized cards. This makes sense, because banks have to keep a reserve against the full amount of cardholders' credit limits. Why tie up capital for credit that isn't being used?

Fair Isaac says such reductions seldom produce real constraints on the consumers -- or any significant lowering of their scores. The computers and humans implementing these reductions aren't perfect, so many holders will undoubtedly feel they've been treated unjustly. (I imagine I'll hear from a few.) But the study suggests that most of the cutbacks are defensible.

Another sin laid to the card companies is charging sky-high interest rates. We know one reason for this: A 1978 Supreme Court decision enabled issuers to stick the highest rate permitted in their home states down the throats of customers nationwide -- that's why banks locate their credit card arms in jerkwater states without usury limits, like South Dakota.

But what's a "reasonable" annual rate? Who's to say that 25% is out of line for an uncollateralized balance owed by, say, someone holding six maxed-out Visa cards? (There's a customer for whom credit should not be cheap.) The banks are surely serious when they say that a federal rate cap, if set too low, would result in more Americans being refused any credit at

all.

In considering the card issuers' behavior, we need to focus on and fix what they really do wrong. Make them comply with clearly written customer contracts, yes. Make them offer cheap and copious credit to all just because their past mistakes have led to a taxpayer bailout, no.