Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Pakistan conflict map

A map produced by the BBC suggests only 38% of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and surrounding areas is under full government control.

The map, compiled by the BBC's Urdu language service, was based on local research and correspondent reports as well as conversations with officials.

It shows the Taleban strengthening their hold across the north-west.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari rejected the findings, telling the BBC it was an "incorrect survey".



The map illustrates the spreading strength of the Taleban in Pakistan's north-west, something both army and government officials have vowed to combat





He was speaking after talks in London with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who pledged £12m ($18m) in humanitarian aid for north-west Pakistan.

Mr Zardari said the two countries were united in fighting the threat to their countries' democratic way of life, and also repeated assurances that his country's arsenal was in safe hands.

There was an international outcry recently when the militants moved into Buner district, just 100km (67 miles) from Islamabad.

Pakistan has continued its military offensive to regain control of the region, and has reported the deaths of 11 militants in the Swat valley in the past 24 hours.

Residents trapped in Mingora, the main town in Swat, told AFP news agency by telephone that militants had planted mines and were digging trenches.

"People are becoming mentally ill, our senses have shut down, children and woman are crying, please tell the government to pull us out of here," said one shopkeeper, who did not want to give his name.

"Forget the lack of electricity and other problems, the Taleban are everywhere and heavy exchanges of fire are routine at night."



The report the BBC map was based on covered the 24 districts of NWFP and the seven tribal agencies and six frontier regions of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).



Pakistan's president tells the BBC's David Loyn that the survey is 'incorrect'
The researchers analysed reports from BBC Urdu correspondents over the past 18 months, backed up by conversations with local officials, police officers and journalists.

They concluded that in 24% of the region, the civilian government no longer had authority and Taleban commanders had taken over administrative controls.

Either the Taleban were in complete control or the military were engaged in operations to flush them out.

Another 38% of the region was deemed to have a permanent Taleban presence, meaning militants had established rural bases which were restricting local government activities and seriously compromising local administration.



Thousands attended a Taleban rally in Mingora just before the offensive
In those areas - three districts in FATA and 11 in NWFP - the Taleban had repeatedly shown their capability to strike at will, says the report.

Militants had made their presence felt by carrying out periodic attacks on girls' schools, music shops, police stations and government buildings.

The map gives a snapshot of the current situation. However continuing fighting between Pakistani troops and the Taleban means the situation on the ground could change in the future.

The Pakistani army's spokesman, Gen Athar Abbas, rejected the BBC map as "grossly exaggerated".

"The ground situation doesn't give any indicator of such influence or control of Taleban in this area," he told the BBC in Rawalpindi.

Thousands flee

The region is notorious for its lack of law and order, so the researchers applied a series of rules to differentiate Taleban activity from general lawlessness.

The incidents had to be of a recurring nature, there had to be an official recognition of Taleban presence, Taleban militants must have appointed local "commanders" and religious schools sympathetic to the militants must be operating in the area.

Pakistan has been stepping up its campaign against the Taleban in the north-west.

Tens of thousands of people have fled from the region to escape the fighting.

The research also indicates areas to which researchers believe Taleban-style militancy may further spread inside Pakistan.

The report found that, based on current perceptions of religiously motivated violence, there were strong indications that in 47% of Punjab Province there was a high likelihood of an increase in Taleban militancy in the near future.

The BBC's Barbara Plett in Islamabad says that while the research indicates the strength of the Taleban in the region, the various factions and groups are only loosely co-ordinated.

Observers have warned against overstating the existence of one unified insurgency against the state, says our correspondent.

Shuttle reaches Hubble telescope

Space shuttle Atlantis has reached the Hubble telescope, orbiting at a height of 560km (350 miles) above the Earth.

The shuttle crew completed a delicate dance of manoeuvres intended to align Atlantis' robotic arm with the telescope during their approach.

The arm was used to get hold of Hubble and draw it into the shuttle's bay.

Contrary to expectations that the telescope might look more dishevelled than on the shuttle's last visit, it appeared to be in good condition.

The observatory has been exposed to extremes of heat and cold as well as to cosmic radiation during its 19 years in low-Earth orbit.

At 1912 BST, Nasa controllers confirmed that Hubble had been safely berthed and secured atop a platform in Atlantis' payload bay.

Five spacewalks beginning on Thursday will upgrade and repair the telescope, which has suffered from recent equipment failures.

As Atlantis made its final approach to Hubble, the shuttle paused at a distance of about 75m, then made an adjustment of 42 degrees to its "yaw", or twist.

Though the crew could control Hubble's movements, the team opted to align the shuttle to the telescope, rather than vice versa.

Astronauts were able to get their first close look at Hubble since March 2002.

At a distance of about 10m from the telescope, astronaut Megan McArthur used the 16m-long robotic arm to grasp the telescope's "grapple fixture".

"Houston, Hubble has arrived on board Atlantis," said Atlantis commander Scott Altman as the robotic arm locked with the fixture at 1814 BST.

The telescope was then drawn delicately to a platform in the shuttle's bay.

Looking out of one of Atlantis' windows, mission specialist John Grunsfeld said: "Hubble, an old man of 19 years. It still looks in fantastic shape."

Previously, Nasa officials had prepared members of the press to expect a Hubble that was more "beaten up" than on the last visit by the shuttle.

Astronauts have now completed a photographic survey of Hubble's exterior using cameras on the shuttle's robotic arm. This was intended to check for any degradation in the telescope's thermal protection system and to assess the condition of its solar panels.

The crew has also activated external power (or shuttle power) to the observatory in preparation for the first spacewalk on Thursday.

A series of spacewalks to be undertaken over the next five days will repair and replace a number of experiments on the telescope.

On Tuesday, shuttle astronauts completed a 10-hour-long inspection of the shuttle to look for any damage to Atlantis sustained on launch.

Atlantis appeared to be in good overall shape, but the survey uncovered a 53cm (21in) line of chips on the shuttle's right side.

The shuttle thundered into the sky at 1901 BST (1401 EDT) on Monday from Florida's Kennedy Space Center.

Launched in 1990, the Hubble Space Telescope is now regarded as one of the most important instruments in the history of astronomy. It has made a remarkable contribution to our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Polling begins for 5th and final phase of LS polls

Voting began on Wednesday across nine States and Union Territories in the fifth and final phase of Lok Sabha elections, but it wasn't clear even after four rounds whether the Congress-led UPA would get another term or the BJP-steered NDA would return to office after five years.

Over 10.78 crore voters have a say in electing 86 MPs to the 545-member lower house of Parliament in this phase.

The polling exercise began at 0700 hrs across 1.21 lakh booths.

The fifth phase saw polling action move to Tamil Nadu, where 39 seats are up for grabs, even as the battle still rages on in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh.

Uttar Pradesh, which sends the most number of MPs (80) to Parliament, and Jammu and Kashmir are the only two states to see polling in all the five phases.

Among the key contenders in this round are Congress' P Chidambaram and Md Azharuddin, BJP's Maneka and Varun Gandhi and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, DMK's T R Baalu, A Raja, Dayanidhi Maran and M K Azhagiri, MDMK's Vaiko, TC chief Mamata Banerjee and SP's Jayaprada.

Congress' Mani Shankar Aiyar, Sajjad Gani Lone of People's Conference, BJP's Vinod Khanna and Navjot Singh Sidhu are others who are prominent among the 1,432 candidates in the fray in this round.

Besides all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, elections would be held to four seats in Himachal Pradesh, two in Jammu and Kashmir, nine in Punjab, 14 in Uttar Pradesh, 11 in West Bengal, five in Uttarakhand and the lone one seat each in both Chandigarh and Puducherry.

Polling has been completed to 457 Lok Sabha seats since the exercise began on April 16. Results will be out on May 16.

A party or a coalition needs 272 seats in the Lok Sabha to stake claim to form a government.
The Lok Sabha has 545 members, but elections are held to 543 seats as two members are nominated from the Anglo-Indian community.

LTTE-built bund captured

The Sri Lanka military on Tuesday said it captured an LTTE-built earthen wall-cum-bund in the vicinity of the 3.5-sq. km. new safety zone (NSZ) along the narrow strip on the Mullaithivu coast, opening a possible escape route for civilians trapped in the zone.

The announcement on the breakthrough came amid charges of shelling on a makeshift hospital inside the NSZ. The attack reportedly killed 26 persons and injured 100. The military denied charges of shelling.

A statement by the Defence Ministry said the 59 Division troops stepped up the on-going hostage rescue operation, crossing the LTTE-constructed earth bund-cum-ditch, north of the Wadduvakal causeway.

The Ministry said the troops advanced 300 metres further into LTTE defences after consolidating their positions at the causeway, even as U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon expressed dismay at the killing of hundreds of civilians over the weekend.

“Thousands of Sri Lankans have already died in the past several months due to the conflict, and more still remain in grave danger,” a statement issued by his office said. An estimated 20,000 to 30,000 civilians are being held hostage by the remaining cadres and leaders of the LTTE holed up inside the NSZ. In the last three days, heavy casualties have been reported from the NSZ. The military and the Tigers blame each other for the death of a large number of civilians, including at least 106 children.

The military, which has closed in on the NSZ from all sides, is confident of flushing out the remaining LTTE cadres and leaders, including its chief Velupillai Prabakaran, in the next 24 to 36 hours

An actor, cricketer & debutant in spotlight

The fatigue of the long-drawn elections has hardly affected the poll-time excitement in Uttar Pradesh.

Of the 14 constituencies going to the polls on Wednesday, Rampur and Pilibhit definitely walked away with the cake for the high-strung drama of a typical masala film that was on offer in these constituencies.

The Rampur show, scripted and directed by Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh, has sitting MP Jaya Prada as the lead character and rebel Azam Khan as the villain. Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav appears as a special guest for emotional relief.

But Noor Bano of the Congress and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are silently inching forward.

In Pilibhit, director-actor-scriptwriter Varun Gandhi is now gleefully projecting himself as the new Gabbar Singh. His main opponent is the richest candidate in the state, Congress’ V.M. Singh, his uncle.

This phase will also decide the fates of Congress’ Jitin Prasad in Dhaurahra, cricket star Azharuddin in Moradabad and also the other Gandhi, Menaka, in Aonla.

Of the main players, Mulayam Singh Yadav, for the first time, was found soft in Rampur. At test also is his decision to embrace Kalyan Singh.

Pollsters believe that though Muslims have not yet dumped Mulayam, he is no longer their first choice.

Muslims form 25 per cent of the votes in 11 of the 14 seats going to the polls. In some seats, Muslims hold the veto power with 29 to 45.3 per cent vote share.

Of Mayawati, the pre-first phase perception was that she would end up with 40-45 seats. But by the end of the fourth phase, the projection came down to 20-25 seats.

The Congress party has seemingly benefited from the return of a chunk of Muslim votes, while the BJP is banking on communal turns in several constituencies, adjoining Pilibhit, thanks to Varun Gandhi.

Final Over: Pinch-hitters slog for allies

It was late in the evening. A heavy-set man hurried past the bank of cameras outside 10, Janpath, home of Congress president Sonia Gandhi (62).

He had his hands up, unsuccessfully covering his face. And he left quietly through the back gate.

It was the JD-S leader and former Karnataka chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy (49).

He didn’t want it known that he — the son of H.D. Deve Gowda (76), the Third F]ront doyen — had had a meeting with the Congress chief.

Late night, he sought to cover it up by claiming that it was only a “courtesy call’’ and the JD (S) remains part of the Third Front.

With just one phase of polling left, which too will have been wrapped up by Wednesday evening, parties are getting ready for the battle for numbers. None of them realistically hope to make it on its own.

Both the Congress and the BJP have set up their teams of charmers to win friends and allies as soon as results are out. In fact, they have gone to work already — Kumaraswamy’s meeting, for one.

If JD-S bolts, it would be the second desertion from the ranks of the Left-led Third Front — the first was Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief Chandrashekhar Rao (55), who stunned everyone by turning up at a National Democratic Alliance rally in Ludhiana on Sunday.

The NDA has already let it be known that Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, 59 and RSS ideologue S. Gurumurthy are working on AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa (61).

And former BJP president Venkaiah Naidu (59) is marking Chandrababu Naidu (59).

NDA convenor Sharad Yadav (61), told a TV news network on Tuesday, “We are in touch Jayalalithaa and Mayawati (the latter has been assigned to former UP minister Lalji Tandon).” Arun Jaitley (56), is in touch with BSP’s Rajya Sabha member Satish Mishra (56), Mayawati’s confidant.

Former Maharashtra deputy CM Gopinath Munde (59), has opened a channel of communication with Raj Thackeray (40), just in case.

The negotiators are on the job. Sonia is leading from the front. “Leaders of all allies and possible allies are a phone call away for her,” said a party leader. But before Sonia steps in, a core team including key players like Pranab Mukherjee (73), A K Antony (68), Ahmed Patel (59), Ghulam Nabi Azad (60), Kamal Nath (62) and Digvijay Singh (62) would take care of the rough edges while looking for allies.

The Congress has reportedly opened a channel of communication with Nitish though a Bihar MP.

Azad is reportedly working on Tamil Nadu parties. Antony is in touch with other leaders in the south and Digvijay with smaller parties in UP and the Hindi heartland.

Sri Lankan army, Tamil Tigers trade blame over deadly attack

The Sri Lankan military and rebels traded blame Sunday for an artillery attack that reportedly killed hundreds of civilians, with the army accusing the encircled Tamil Tigers of launching the assault to press authorities for a truce and the guerrillas saying the deaths were further evidence of government atrocities.

The attack took place late Saturday and early Sunday, with artillery shells reportedly lobbed into a densely packed area of northern Sri Lanka, resulting in at least 378 civilian deaths, the rebels said.




But the army blamed the rebels, formally known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. "The LTTE fired mortars indiscriminately into this place," army spokesman Brig. Udaya Nanayakkara said Sunday. "They fire indiscriminately at civilians because it's the only weapon left them. And they may be forcing doctors to give these kinds of statements."

TamilNet.com, a pro-rebel website, accused the government forces of carrying out the artillery barrage. Citing medical sources, it said the shelling killed at least 378 people and wounded 814.

"More than 2,000 innocent civilians have been killed in the last 24 hours," it said, quoting Selvarajah Pathmanathan, the rebels' foreign relations intermediary and a weapons smuggler wanted by Interpol. This, it said, amounts to "state terrorism and a war crime."


Bitter accusations, propaganda and a lack of credible information have been long-standing features of this war.

The army, citing safety concerns, has severely restricted access into the northern area by news media or humanitarian groups -- both of which it has at times accused of being rebel sympathizers.

The Tigers, accused of numerous human rights violations, have rarely allowed media access to areas they control. The U.S. and European Union have labeled the group as terrorist, while the United Nations has accused it of using civilians as human shields.

On Sunday, the government deported three journalists with Britain's Channel 4 on charges that their stories were "tarnishing the image of the country."

Channel 4 had broadcast a report last week quoting what it said were Tamil aid workers inside a humanitarian camp saying that war-displaced people there were underfed and mistreated and that some women had been sexually abused.

The government called the report Tamil Tiger propaganda, saying that its camps were considered largely up to international standards by U.N. and foreign officials.

The civil war has raged since 1983. The Tigers seek an independent homeland for ethnic Tamils marginalized in Sinhalese-majority Sri Lanka.

After years of relative stalemate, the army recently made dramatic advances and now has the Tigers trapped in a 2-square-mile area on the island's northern coast surrounded by 50,000 troops.

Foreign governments and U.N. agencies have repeatedly asked the government to halt the hostilities so that noncombatants trapped in the sliver of land can reach safety. But the army contends that any halt would allow the rebels to escape or regroup.

As the military endgame nears, a man who once worked closely with Velupillai Prabhakaran, the leader of the Tigers, said the guerrilla chief would never surrender and would soon be "eliminated."

Vinayagamoorthi Muralitharan, also known as Col. Karuna, joined the Tigers when he was 19. He led forces in eastern Sri Lanka until 2004 when he defected to the government side, paving the way for the latest military advances. In March he was appointed Sri Lanka's minister for national integration and reconciliation.

"The LTTE is nearly finished," Karuna said in an interview at his heavily fortified headquarters in Colombo, the capital, where visitors are frisked. "I am No. 1 on the LTTE's hit list. Prabhakaran hates me."

If Prabhakaran dies, the rebels won't appoint another leader, he predicted. "There are no new leaders waiting in the LTTE," Karuna said. "They are finished."

Thileepan Parthipan, a spokesman for the LTTE, who spoke by telephone from what he said was a bunker, agreed that Prabhakaran would never give himself up alive. Tiger leaders are known to carry cyanide capsules.

"He's fighting for his people and is still with us," he said. Reports that the guerrilla leader had fled the conflict zone were army disinformation, he said, adding that people in the area were starving and the international community needed to intervene to prevent a humanitarian disaster.

Parthipan denied that the Tigers were using civilians as human shields. "You should realize, these are our own mothers, brothers, wives," he said. "It's the army that is using our people as human shields."

In the interview, Karuna sought to paint Prabhakaran as a leader who kept himself out of danger while demanding great sacrifices from his cadres, and someone who failed to read the political situation correctly.

"Prabhakaran made many mistakes" by not seriously pursuing peace negotiations, the burly, mustached former fighter said. "I spent 22 years with him and he never came to the battlefield."

Karuna said it was unsafe for him to travel around the country.

Some analysts and regional diplomats fear Sri Lanka could win the war but lose the peace if its postwar policies prove prejudicial to the marginalized Tamil community, thereby providing fertile ground for a new LTTE-like group.

Karuna, who has been accused of appalling acts of barbarism with both the Tigers and the government, said Prabhakaran must die, not because he holds any remaining sway over the Tamil populace but as punishment for the things he has done.

"He's a very horrible man," Karuna said. "He has to be eliminated."