Preliminary exit polls released after the final phase of voting in India's month-long elections showed a narrow lead for the ruling Congress-led coalition over the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) alliance, but indicated that neither party would have a clear majority.
The first poll to be published, conducted for India TV by C-Voter polling agency, showed the left of centre Congress-led alliance winning 193-205 seats, with the opposition BJP-led alliance taking 181-193 of the 543 seats at stake.
A national projection by the Headlines Today news channel also gave Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress coalition a lead, but below its showing in the 2004 election.
Exit polls in India are notoriously unreliable, given the difficulty of assessing how 714 million people have voted. Such polls were particularly misleading in the run up to the 2004 elections, when they suggested that the Congress party, which subsequently claimed a victory, would remain in opposition.
Despite these caveats, politicians in Delhi were paying close attention to these tentative, early indications, and attempts to secure post-poll alliances took on a frenzied pace.
BJP and Congress leaders have long anticipated that they may secure insufficient seats to form a strong government. Backroom negotiations with regional parties have intensified this week as each main party tries to forge ties to the most powerful regional blocs. In order to form a government, an alliance would need at least 272 seats in parliament.
If the result is very close once the votes are counted and announced, around midday on Saturday, the two rival parties may still need several days to secure firm commitments of support from potential allies. The capacity of one side or the other to form a government may not be immediately clear. A new parliament must be in place by 2 June, according to the constitution.
If both the Congress-led alliance and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are unable to scrabble together enough backing from other parties to govern, India could see a hung parliament led by a new bloc, the Third Front. It comprises regional parties and the communists, who withdrew support from the Congress-led government over the nuclear deal signed last year with the US.
Analysts warn that a government that is heavily dependent on the unstable support of diverse, fragmented, local groups will be unable to push through its policies and may be short-lived.
The process of negotiating alliances is fraught and conducted in great secrecy. The powerful regional parties are in demand from both the BJP and Congress but are anxious not to burn their bridges by making premature commitments to one side or the other.The clandestine nature of talks has caused politicians to behave in strange ways. The leader of the Janata Dal (Secular) party, HD Kumaraswamy, who is a key player in the southern state of Karnataka and a crucial figure in the Third Front, was yesterday recognised driving through the gates of the home of the Congress party leader, Sonia Gandhi, despite his attempts to hide by draping a handkerchief (or perhaps a towel) over his head.
When confronted by Third Front politicians, he insisted he had not been trying to hide but had merely been wiping sweat from his face, denied that he had been there to discuss possible alliances, and described the visit as nothing more than "a courtesy call".
courtsey...the guardian u.k
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Bank of England believes recession has probably bottomed out
The Bank of England said today that the recession had probably bottomed out, but warned that any recovery would be hampered by the ongoing reluctance of banks to lend to consumers and businesses.
Releasing a quarterly inflation report likely to cement expectations that interest rates could stay at record lows for a long time, the monetary policy committee forecast that inflation would probably remain below its 2% target for at least two years even if it kept rates at 0.5% and flooded the economy with £125bn of "quantitative easing".
"The economy will eventually heal but the process may be slow," said Bank governor Mervyn King.
"A number of indicators have clearly picked up," he said, adding that the economy would be helped by the big monetary and fiscal stimulus, the sharp drop in the pound's value, which would boost exports, and the process of companies rebuilding stocks that they ran down at the turn of the year.
"All of this will lead to a recovery. But there are solid reasons to believe that spending will take a long time to return to more normal levels. This is not like the typical business cycle of the post-war period," said King. "It is likely that the supply of credit will continue to be restricted for some while, with banks being risk-averse and aiming to raise capital ratios."
The Bank's inflation report sees consumer price inflation (CPI) tumbling to just 0.5% later this year, from the current 2.9%, as the effect of the big oil price falls of the past year feed through.
The gloomy report sent sterling and gilt yields down sharply while the FTSE 100 fell further into negative territory. The pound shed over a cent against the dollar to $1.517 and half a cent against the euro to €1.11. The 10-year benchmark gilt yield fell to 3.47% from 3.65% but two-year yields fell to historic lows of below 1%, something that could feed through into cheaper two-year fixed-rate mortgages.
The Bank said it thought the bottom of the growth fall had now been reached, with a drop of 4.5% from a year ago.
Turning to the Bank's quantitative easing process, King said the MPC added £50bn last week to the £75bn it had planned not because it was disappointed with the effects so far, but because nominal spending in the economy had turned out worse than expected.
"No one can know the effect because it is far too early to judge," he said.
King also said that as and when the recovery became entrenched, the MPC was prepared to raise interest rates and take back its quantitative easing. "The exit strategy is very simple – it's a combination of raising Bank rate and selling some of the assets we have purchased. We're ready to do that whenever we think it is appropriate to do so."
Analysts were surprised by the downbeat nature of the report. "The Bank of England is not buying the 'it's all over' mood that seems to be sweeping over investors and market pundits," said Rob Carnell, economist at ING Financial Markets.
Separate figures from the eurozone showed that the recession there seems to be deepening. Industrial production in the 16 countries fell by a worse-than-expected 2% in March from February, leaving it a record 20% down from a year earlier.
"March's sharp decline in eurozone industrial production confirms that the recession deepened in Q1. Indeed, last quarter's economic contraction is likely to have been even greater than that seen in the US and UK," said Ben May at Capital Economics.
"Given the dismal start to 2009, we expect the eurozone economy to contract by about 5% this year and by a further 0.5% or so in 2010
Releasing a quarterly inflation report likely to cement expectations that interest rates could stay at record lows for a long time, the monetary policy committee forecast that inflation would probably remain below its 2% target for at least two years even if it kept rates at 0.5% and flooded the economy with £125bn of "quantitative easing".
"The economy will eventually heal but the process may be slow," said Bank governor Mervyn King.
"A number of indicators have clearly picked up," he said, adding that the economy would be helped by the big monetary and fiscal stimulus, the sharp drop in the pound's value, which would boost exports, and the process of companies rebuilding stocks that they ran down at the turn of the year.
"All of this will lead to a recovery. But there are solid reasons to believe that spending will take a long time to return to more normal levels. This is not like the typical business cycle of the post-war period," said King. "It is likely that the supply of credit will continue to be restricted for some while, with banks being risk-averse and aiming to raise capital ratios."
The Bank's inflation report sees consumer price inflation (CPI) tumbling to just 0.5% later this year, from the current 2.9%, as the effect of the big oil price falls of the past year feed through.
The gloomy report sent sterling and gilt yields down sharply while the FTSE 100 fell further into negative territory. The pound shed over a cent against the dollar to $1.517 and half a cent against the euro to €1.11. The 10-year benchmark gilt yield fell to 3.47% from 3.65% but two-year yields fell to historic lows of below 1%, something that could feed through into cheaper two-year fixed-rate mortgages.
The Bank said it thought the bottom of the growth fall had now been reached, with a drop of 4.5% from a year ago.
Turning to the Bank's quantitative easing process, King said the MPC added £50bn last week to the £75bn it had planned not because it was disappointed with the effects so far, but because nominal spending in the economy had turned out worse than expected.
"No one can know the effect because it is far too early to judge," he said.
King also said that as and when the recovery became entrenched, the MPC was prepared to raise interest rates and take back its quantitative easing. "The exit strategy is very simple – it's a combination of raising Bank rate and selling some of the assets we have purchased. We're ready to do that whenever we think it is appropriate to do so."
Analysts were surprised by the downbeat nature of the report. "The Bank of England is not buying the 'it's all over' mood that seems to be sweeping over investors and market pundits," said Rob Carnell, economist at ING Financial Markets.
Separate figures from the eurozone showed that the recession there seems to be deepening. Industrial production in the 16 countries fell by a worse-than-expected 2% in March from February, leaving it a record 20% down from a year earlier.
"March's sharp decline in eurozone industrial production confirms that the recession deepened in Q1. Indeed, last quarter's economic contraction is likely to have been even greater than that seen in the US and UK," said Ben May at Capital Economics.
"Given the dismal start to 2009, we expect the eurozone economy to contract by about 5% this year and by a further 0.5% or so in 2010
MPs' expenses row: Speaker of the Commons will be told to quit
Michael Martin, the Speaker of the Commons, is to be told by senior Labour figures that he must stand down by the next general election or risk a humiliating "mess" at the end of a political career spanning three decades.
In a dramatic change of mood, after a day of heated Commons exchanges over the best way to clean up Westminister's expenses regime, ministers and senior MPs were lining up to tell the Speaker in private that he had lost the confidence of parliament.
"It is sad and it is painful," one minister, who has been a supporter of Martin, said. "But we are going to have to tell Michael that he must indicate that he will stand down at the next election or it will all dissolve into a terrible mess."
Tony McNulty, the employment minister, became the first minister to criticise the Speaker in public over the way he slapped down MPs who questioned his handling of the expenses row. "I thought he was a bit heavy-handed with Kate Hoey and Norman Baker – unusually so for him, to be fair."
The growing unease about the Speaker came as a new round of senior Labour and Tory MPs faced embarassment about their expenses in today's Daily Telegraph:
• Elliot Morley, the former Labour environment minister, claimed £16,000 in mortgage interest on his Scunthorpe constituency home for more than 18 months after paying off the loan. He has since paid back the money after admitting he made a mistake.
• Fabian Hamilton, the Labour MP for Leeds North East, declared his mother's London house as a his main residence, allowing him to claim allowances for his constituency home. Hamilton said he lived with his mother because she was gravely ill and died in 2005.
• John Maples, a deputy chairman of the Tory party, declared a room in his private members' club in Pall Mall as his main home, allowing him to claim allowances on his Oxfordshire home. Maples said he had stayed at the RAC Club for a short period in between selling and buying a London home.
Nick Brown, the chief whip, will today meet Labour MPs with questionable claims. But the week-long allegations are putting intense pressure on the Speaker who led the fight against releasing MPs' expenses.
The veteran Tory MP Richard Shepherd said he would back a motion of no confidence in Martin. "There is something very rotten at the heart of parliament," he said.
Senior government sources said Martin was expected to indicate his intention to stand down by the time of the election. One source said: "Many mainstream people believe his performances have been misjudged this week. But Labour MPs are not going to throw out a working-class guy from Glasgow. He is safe as houses in the short term. After the election? We'll see."
Martin today comes under fire on another front, accused of using an obscure legal device to block further requests for information about the work of MPs – including apparently innocuous inquiries such as one about the all-party group on the wood panel industry.
The journalist and information campaigner Heather Brooke, who led the campaign to release information about MPs' expenses, told the Guardian that the Commons authorities are using section 34 in the 2000 Freedom of Information Act to block the release of information if it is "an infringement of the privileges of either house of parliament".
The authorities said this applied in the case of the wood panel group because the request would "interfere with the functioning" of the registrar of members' interests. MPs on the group would have registered any links to the wood panel industry.
Brooke said: "They are battening down the hatches. Rather than concede, they seem to be in full defence mode. This is a last-ditch attempt to maintain this feudal culture of secrecy. It is the wood panel industry group, it's not like it is going to topple parliament as we know it, unless it is made of wood panel."
Lord Falconer, the former lord chancellor who piloted the FOI Act through the House of Lords, last night expressed surprise that it was being used to block information about the all-party wood group. "It had never occurred to me that it would apply to that sort of thing," he told the Guardian.
"But that is not to say that it might not be wide enough to cover it.
"The question of whether or not you would set up a wood panelling all-party group – you might have a discussion in which you will ask is it worthwhile. Would that infringe the privilege of the house in the sense that it would inhibit people talking whether to set up an all-party group?"
But Falconer said that it was right to block other requests from freedom of information campaigners, such as the private discussions of Commons committees. "The obvious things that would be privileged would be the deliberation of committees."
In a dramatic change of mood, after a day of heated Commons exchanges over the best way to clean up Westminister's expenses regime, ministers and senior MPs were lining up to tell the Speaker in private that he had lost the confidence of parliament.
"It is sad and it is painful," one minister, who has been a supporter of Martin, said. "But we are going to have to tell Michael that he must indicate that he will stand down at the next election or it will all dissolve into a terrible mess."
Tony McNulty, the employment minister, became the first minister to criticise the Speaker in public over the way he slapped down MPs who questioned his handling of the expenses row. "I thought he was a bit heavy-handed with Kate Hoey and Norman Baker – unusually so for him, to be fair."
The growing unease about the Speaker came as a new round of senior Labour and Tory MPs faced embarassment about their expenses in today's Daily Telegraph:
• Elliot Morley, the former Labour environment minister, claimed £16,000 in mortgage interest on his Scunthorpe constituency home for more than 18 months after paying off the loan. He has since paid back the money after admitting he made a mistake.
• Fabian Hamilton, the Labour MP for Leeds North East, declared his mother's London house as a his main residence, allowing him to claim allowances for his constituency home. Hamilton said he lived with his mother because she was gravely ill and died in 2005.
• John Maples, a deputy chairman of the Tory party, declared a room in his private members' club in Pall Mall as his main home, allowing him to claim allowances on his Oxfordshire home. Maples said he had stayed at the RAC Club for a short period in between selling and buying a London home.
Nick Brown, the chief whip, will today meet Labour MPs with questionable claims. But the week-long allegations are putting intense pressure on the Speaker who led the fight against releasing MPs' expenses.
The veteran Tory MP Richard Shepherd said he would back a motion of no confidence in Martin. "There is something very rotten at the heart of parliament," he said.
Senior government sources said Martin was expected to indicate his intention to stand down by the time of the election. One source said: "Many mainstream people believe his performances have been misjudged this week. But Labour MPs are not going to throw out a working-class guy from Glasgow. He is safe as houses in the short term. After the election? We'll see."
Martin today comes under fire on another front, accused of using an obscure legal device to block further requests for information about the work of MPs – including apparently innocuous inquiries such as one about the all-party group on the wood panel industry.
The journalist and information campaigner Heather Brooke, who led the campaign to release information about MPs' expenses, told the Guardian that the Commons authorities are using section 34 in the 2000 Freedom of Information Act to block the release of information if it is "an infringement of the privileges of either house of parliament".
The authorities said this applied in the case of the wood panel group because the request would "interfere with the functioning" of the registrar of members' interests. MPs on the group would have registered any links to the wood panel industry.
Brooke said: "They are battening down the hatches. Rather than concede, they seem to be in full defence mode. This is a last-ditch attempt to maintain this feudal culture of secrecy. It is the wood panel industry group, it's not like it is going to topple parliament as we know it, unless it is made of wood panel."
Lord Falconer, the former lord chancellor who piloted the FOI Act through the House of Lords, last night expressed surprise that it was being used to block information about the all-party wood group. "It had never occurred to me that it would apply to that sort of thing," he told the Guardian.
"But that is not to say that it might not be wide enough to cover it.
"The question of whether or not you would set up a wood panelling all-party group – you might have a discussion in which you will ask is it worthwhile. Would that infringe the privilege of the house in the sense that it would inhibit people talking whether to set up an all-party group?"
But Falconer said that it was right to block other requests from freedom of information campaigners, such as the private discussions of Commons committees. "The obvious things that would be privileged would be the deliberation of committees."
EU slaps a record fine on Intel
Computer chipmaker Intel has been fined a record 1.06bn euros ($1.45bn; £948m) by the European Commission for anti-competitive practices.
It dwarfs the 497m euro fine levied on Microsoft in 2004 for abusing its dominant market position.
The Commission found that between 2002 and 2007, Intel had paid manufacturers and a retailer to favour its chips over those of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Intel has announced that it will appeal against the verdict.
Intel's senior vice president Bruce Sewell told BBC Five Live that Intel contested the findings and was seeking a chance to "clear our name and exonerate the company."
He denied "categorically" that it had paid manufacturers to favour its products over those of rivals.
"We would never pay for any kind of obligation," Mr Sewell said. "We provide incentives to customers to buy our products."
He added that there had been no harm to customers and that prices in the microprocessor market had fallen sharply in recent years.
The fine was welcomed by AMD, which had lodged complaints in 2000, 2003 and 2006.
"The EU decision will shift the power from an abusive monopolist to computer makers, retailers and above all PC consumers," said Giuliano Meroni, AMD's European president.
'Sustained violation'
The Commission said that personal computer makers Acer, Dell, HP, Lenovo and NEC had all been given hidden rebates if they only used Intel chips.
It also found that Media Saturn, which owns Europe's biggest consumer electronics retailer Media Markt, had been given money so that it would only sell computers containing Intel chips.
"Intel has harmed millions of European consumers by deliberately acting to keep competitors out of the market for computer chips for many years," said Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes.
"Such a serious and sustained violation of the EU's antitrust rules cannot be tolerated."
A Commission spokesman said there was no question of action being taken against the firms who accepted the rebates.
"They were not the ones abusing their dominant position in the market," he added.
Last year, Intel made 80.5% of all the microprocessors in PCs, while AMD made 12%.
'Wall of resistance'
The Commission has also ordered Intel "to cease the illegal practices immediately to the extent that they are still ongoing".
In addition to providing rebates to manufacturers that bought almost entirely Intel products, the Commission found that the chipmaker had paid them to postpone or cancel the launch of specific products based on AMD chips.
FROM BBC WORLD SERVICE
More from BBC World Service
Ms Kroes joked in her own news conference that Intel would now have to change its latest advertising slogan from "sponsors of tomorrow" to "the sponsor of the European taxpayer".
Both Intel and AMD are based in California. Intel has 83,900 staff worldwide and has a market value of $85.4bn.
AMD employs about 11,000 people and has a market value of $2.6bn.
"Despite its strong defence, Intel is facing a wall of regulatory resistance to its business practices around the world, with antitrust infringement decisions against it now in Japan, Korea, and the EU, while the US authorities are investigating Intel as well," said David Anderson, a lawyer at Berwin Leighton Paisner.
"It is a major decision that shows the Commission is serious about curtailing abusive behaviour of dominant companies, especially in the high-tech sector."
Technology analysts Gartner said the decision was unlikely to have any significant impact on market conditions.
"The Intel-AMD market share is likely to remain roughly aligned with manufacturing capacity, adjusted for technology capabilities," said Gartner managing vice-president Martin Reynolds.
"Intel will pay its fine and carefully inspect its sales relationships to protect against risky influence. AMD does not receive any money from the fine, which accrues to the EU tax budget. And Intel's greatest challenge will remain market growth, not market share
It dwarfs the 497m euro fine levied on Microsoft in 2004 for abusing its dominant market position.
The Commission found that between 2002 and 2007, Intel had paid manufacturers and a retailer to favour its chips over those of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Intel has announced that it will appeal against the verdict.
Intel's senior vice president Bruce Sewell told BBC Five Live that Intel contested the findings and was seeking a chance to "clear our name and exonerate the company."
He denied "categorically" that it had paid manufacturers to favour its products over those of rivals.
"We would never pay for any kind of obligation," Mr Sewell said. "We provide incentives to customers to buy our products."
He added that there had been no harm to customers and that prices in the microprocessor market had fallen sharply in recent years.
The fine was welcomed by AMD, which had lodged complaints in 2000, 2003 and 2006.
"The EU decision will shift the power from an abusive monopolist to computer makers, retailers and above all PC consumers," said Giuliano Meroni, AMD's European president.
'Sustained violation'
The Commission said that personal computer makers Acer, Dell, HP, Lenovo and NEC had all been given hidden rebates if they only used Intel chips.
It also found that Media Saturn, which owns Europe's biggest consumer electronics retailer Media Markt, had been given money so that it would only sell computers containing Intel chips.
"Intel has harmed millions of European consumers by deliberately acting to keep competitors out of the market for computer chips for many years," said Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes.
"Such a serious and sustained violation of the EU's antitrust rules cannot be tolerated."
A Commission spokesman said there was no question of action being taken against the firms who accepted the rebates.
"They were not the ones abusing their dominant position in the market," he added.
Last year, Intel made 80.5% of all the microprocessors in PCs, while AMD made 12%.
'Wall of resistance'
The Commission has also ordered Intel "to cease the illegal practices immediately to the extent that they are still ongoing".
In addition to providing rebates to manufacturers that bought almost entirely Intel products, the Commission found that the chipmaker had paid them to postpone or cancel the launch of specific products based on AMD chips.
FROM BBC WORLD SERVICE
More from BBC World Service
Ms Kroes joked in her own news conference that Intel would now have to change its latest advertising slogan from "sponsors of tomorrow" to "the sponsor of the European taxpayer".
Both Intel and AMD are based in California. Intel has 83,900 staff worldwide and has a market value of $85.4bn.
AMD employs about 11,000 people and has a market value of $2.6bn.
"Despite its strong defence, Intel is facing a wall of regulatory resistance to its business practices around the world, with antitrust infringement decisions against it now in Japan, Korea, and the EU, while the US authorities are investigating Intel as well," said David Anderson, a lawyer at Berwin Leighton Paisner.
"It is a major decision that shows the Commission is serious about curtailing abusive behaviour of dominant companies, especially in the high-tech sector."
Technology analysts Gartner said the decision was unlikely to have any significant impact on market conditions.
"The Intel-AMD market share is likely to remain roughly aligned with manufacturing capacity, adjusted for technology capabilities," said Gartner managing vice-president Martin Reynolds.
"Intel will pay its fine and carefully inspect its sales relationships to protect against risky influence. AMD does not receive any money from the fine, which accrues to the EU tax budget. And Intel's greatest challenge will remain market growth, not market share
Pakistan conflict map
A map produced by the BBC suggests only 38% of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and surrounding areas is under full government control.
The map, compiled by the BBC's Urdu language service, was based on local research and correspondent reports as well as conversations with officials.
It shows the Taleban strengthening their hold across the north-west.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari rejected the findings, telling the BBC it was an "incorrect survey".
The map illustrates the spreading strength of the Taleban in Pakistan's north-west, something both army and government officials have vowed to combat
He was speaking after talks in London with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who pledged £12m ($18m) in humanitarian aid for north-west Pakistan.
Mr Zardari said the two countries were united in fighting the threat to their countries' democratic way of life, and also repeated assurances that his country's arsenal was in safe hands.
There was an international outcry recently when the militants moved into Buner district, just 100km (67 miles) from Islamabad.
Pakistan has continued its military offensive to regain control of the region, and has reported the deaths of 11 militants in the Swat valley in the past 24 hours.
Residents trapped in Mingora, the main town in Swat, told AFP news agency by telephone that militants had planted mines and were digging trenches.
"People are becoming mentally ill, our senses have shut down, children and woman are crying, please tell the government to pull us out of here," said one shopkeeper, who did not want to give his name.
"Forget the lack of electricity and other problems, the Taleban are everywhere and heavy exchanges of fire are routine at night."
The report the BBC map was based on covered the 24 districts of NWFP and the seven tribal agencies and six frontier regions of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Pakistan's president tells the BBC's David Loyn that the survey is 'incorrect'
The researchers analysed reports from BBC Urdu correspondents over the past 18 months, backed up by conversations with local officials, police officers and journalists.
They concluded that in 24% of the region, the civilian government no longer had authority and Taleban commanders had taken over administrative controls.
Either the Taleban were in complete control or the military were engaged in operations to flush them out.
Another 38% of the region was deemed to have a permanent Taleban presence, meaning militants had established rural bases which were restricting local government activities and seriously compromising local administration.
Thousands attended a Taleban rally in Mingora just before the offensive
In those areas - three districts in FATA and 11 in NWFP - the Taleban had repeatedly shown their capability to strike at will, says the report.
Militants had made their presence felt by carrying out periodic attacks on girls' schools, music shops, police stations and government buildings.
The map gives a snapshot of the current situation. However continuing fighting between Pakistani troops and the Taleban means the situation on the ground could change in the future.
The Pakistani army's spokesman, Gen Athar Abbas, rejected the BBC map as "grossly exaggerated".
"The ground situation doesn't give any indicator of such influence or control of Taleban in this area," he told the BBC in Rawalpindi.
Thousands flee
The region is notorious for its lack of law and order, so the researchers applied a series of rules to differentiate Taleban activity from general lawlessness.
The incidents had to be of a recurring nature, there had to be an official recognition of Taleban presence, Taleban militants must have appointed local "commanders" and religious schools sympathetic to the militants must be operating in the area.
Pakistan has been stepping up its campaign against the Taleban in the north-west.
Tens of thousands of people have fled from the region to escape the fighting.
The research also indicates areas to which researchers believe Taleban-style militancy may further spread inside Pakistan.
The report found that, based on current perceptions of religiously motivated violence, there were strong indications that in 47% of Punjab Province there was a high likelihood of an increase in Taleban militancy in the near future.
The BBC's Barbara Plett in Islamabad says that while the research indicates the strength of the Taleban in the region, the various factions and groups are only loosely co-ordinated.
Observers have warned against overstating the existence of one unified insurgency against the state, says our correspondent.
The map, compiled by the BBC's Urdu language service, was based on local research and correspondent reports as well as conversations with officials.
It shows the Taleban strengthening their hold across the north-west.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari rejected the findings, telling the BBC it was an "incorrect survey".
The map illustrates the spreading strength of the Taleban in Pakistan's north-west, something both army and government officials have vowed to combat
He was speaking after talks in London with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who pledged £12m ($18m) in humanitarian aid for north-west Pakistan.
Mr Zardari said the two countries were united in fighting the threat to their countries' democratic way of life, and also repeated assurances that his country's arsenal was in safe hands.
There was an international outcry recently when the militants moved into Buner district, just 100km (67 miles) from Islamabad.
Pakistan has continued its military offensive to regain control of the region, and has reported the deaths of 11 militants in the Swat valley in the past 24 hours.
Residents trapped in Mingora, the main town in Swat, told AFP news agency by telephone that militants had planted mines and were digging trenches.
"People are becoming mentally ill, our senses have shut down, children and woman are crying, please tell the government to pull us out of here," said one shopkeeper, who did not want to give his name.
"Forget the lack of electricity and other problems, the Taleban are everywhere and heavy exchanges of fire are routine at night."
The report the BBC map was based on covered the 24 districts of NWFP and the seven tribal agencies and six frontier regions of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Pakistan's president tells the BBC's David Loyn that the survey is 'incorrect'
The researchers analysed reports from BBC Urdu correspondents over the past 18 months, backed up by conversations with local officials, police officers and journalists.
They concluded that in 24% of the region, the civilian government no longer had authority and Taleban commanders had taken over administrative controls.
Either the Taleban were in complete control or the military were engaged in operations to flush them out.
Another 38% of the region was deemed to have a permanent Taleban presence, meaning militants had established rural bases which were restricting local government activities and seriously compromising local administration.
Thousands attended a Taleban rally in Mingora just before the offensive
In those areas - three districts in FATA and 11 in NWFP - the Taleban had repeatedly shown their capability to strike at will, says the report.
Militants had made their presence felt by carrying out periodic attacks on girls' schools, music shops, police stations and government buildings.
The map gives a snapshot of the current situation. However continuing fighting between Pakistani troops and the Taleban means the situation on the ground could change in the future.
The Pakistani army's spokesman, Gen Athar Abbas, rejected the BBC map as "grossly exaggerated".
"The ground situation doesn't give any indicator of such influence or control of Taleban in this area," he told the BBC in Rawalpindi.
Thousands flee
The region is notorious for its lack of law and order, so the researchers applied a series of rules to differentiate Taleban activity from general lawlessness.
The incidents had to be of a recurring nature, there had to be an official recognition of Taleban presence, Taleban militants must have appointed local "commanders" and religious schools sympathetic to the militants must be operating in the area.
Pakistan has been stepping up its campaign against the Taleban in the north-west.
Tens of thousands of people have fled from the region to escape the fighting.
The research also indicates areas to which researchers believe Taleban-style militancy may further spread inside Pakistan.
The report found that, based on current perceptions of religiously motivated violence, there were strong indications that in 47% of Punjab Province there was a high likelihood of an increase in Taleban militancy in the near future.
The BBC's Barbara Plett in Islamabad says that while the research indicates the strength of the Taleban in the region, the various factions and groups are only loosely co-ordinated.
Observers have warned against overstating the existence of one unified insurgency against the state, says our correspondent.
Shuttle reaches Hubble telescope
Space shuttle Atlantis has reached the Hubble telescope, orbiting at a height of 560km (350 miles) above the Earth.
The shuttle crew completed a delicate dance of manoeuvres intended to align Atlantis' robotic arm with the telescope during their approach.
The arm was used to get hold of Hubble and draw it into the shuttle's bay.
Contrary to expectations that the telescope might look more dishevelled than on the shuttle's last visit, it appeared to be in good condition.
The observatory has been exposed to extremes of heat and cold as well as to cosmic radiation during its 19 years in low-Earth orbit.
At 1912 BST, Nasa controllers confirmed that Hubble had been safely berthed and secured atop a platform in Atlantis' payload bay.
Five spacewalks beginning on Thursday will upgrade and repair the telescope, which has suffered from recent equipment failures.
As Atlantis made its final approach to Hubble, the shuttle paused at a distance of about 75m, then made an adjustment of 42 degrees to its "yaw", or twist.
Though the crew could control Hubble's movements, the team opted to align the shuttle to the telescope, rather than vice versa.
Astronauts were able to get their first close look at Hubble since March 2002.
At a distance of about 10m from the telescope, astronaut Megan McArthur used the 16m-long robotic arm to grasp the telescope's "grapple fixture".
"Houston, Hubble has arrived on board Atlantis," said Atlantis commander Scott Altman as the robotic arm locked with the fixture at 1814 BST.
The telescope was then drawn delicately to a platform in the shuttle's bay.
Looking out of one of Atlantis' windows, mission specialist John Grunsfeld said: "Hubble, an old man of 19 years. It still looks in fantastic shape."
Previously, Nasa officials had prepared members of the press to expect a Hubble that was more "beaten up" than on the last visit by the shuttle.
Astronauts have now completed a photographic survey of Hubble's exterior using cameras on the shuttle's robotic arm. This was intended to check for any degradation in the telescope's thermal protection system and to assess the condition of its solar panels.
The crew has also activated external power (or shuttle power) to the observatory in preparation for the first spacewalk on Thursday.
A series of spacewalks to be undertaken over the next five days will repair and replace a number of experiments on the telescope.
On Tuesday, shuttle astronauts completed a 10-hour-long inspection of the shuttle to look for any damage to Atlantis sustained on launch.
Atlantis appeared to be in good overall shape, but the survey uncovered a 53cm (21in) line of chips on the shuttle's right side.
The shuttle thundered into the sky at 1901 BST (1401 EDT) on Monday from Florida's Kennedy Space Center.
Launched in 1990, the Hubble Space Telescope is now regarded as one of the most important instruments in the history of astronomy. It has made a remarkable contribution to our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe.
The shuttle crew completed a delicate dance of manoeuvres intended to align Atlantis' robotic arm with the telescope during their approach.
The arm was used to get hold of Hubble and draw it into the shuttle's bay.
Contrary to expectations that the telescope might look more dishevelled than on the shuttle's last visit, it appeared to be in good condition.
The observatory has been exposed to extremes of heat and cold as well as to cosmic radiation during its 19 years in low-Earth orbit.
At 1912 BST, Nasa controllers confirmed that Hubble had been safely berthed and secured atop a platform in Atlantis' payload bay.
Five spacewalks beginning on Thursday will upgrade and repair the telescope, which has suffered from recent equipment failures.
As Atlantis made its final approach to Hubble, the shuttle paused at a distance of about 75m, then made an adjustment of 42 degrees to its "yaw", or twist.
Though the crew could control Hubble's movements, the team opted to align the shuttle to the telescope, rather than vice versa.
Astronauts were able to get their first close look at Hubble since March 2002.
At a distance of about 10m from the telescope, astronaut Megan McArthur used the 16m-long robotic arm to grasp the telescope's "grapple fixture".
"Houston, Hubble has arrived on board Atlantis," said Atlantis commander Scott Altman as the robotic arm locked with the fixture at 1814 BST.
The telescope was then drawn delicately to a platform in the shuttle's bay.
Looking out of one of Atlantis' windows, mission specialist John Grunsfeld said: "Hubble, an old man of 19 years. It still looks in fantastic shape."
Previously, Nasa officials had prepared members of the press to expect a Hubble that was more "beaten up" than on the last visit by the shuttle.
Astronauts have now completed a photographic survey of Hubble's exterior using cameras on the shuttle's robotic arm. This was intended to check for any degradation in the telescope's thermal protection system and to assess the condition of its solar panels.
The crew has also activated external power (or shuttle power) to the observatory in preparation for the first spacewalk on Thursday.
A series of spacewalks to be undertaken over the next five days will repair and replace a number of experiments on the telescope.
On Tuesday, shuttle astronauts completed a 10-hour-long inspection of the shuttle to look for any damage to Atlantis sustained on launch.
Atlantis appeared to be in good overall shape, but the survey uncovered a 53cm (21in) line of chips on the shuttle's right side.
The shuttle thundered into the sky at 1901 BST (1401 EDT) on Monday from Florida's Kennedy Space Center.
Launched in 1990, the Hubble Space Telescope is now regarded as one of the most important instruments in the history of astronomy. It has made a remarkable contribution to our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Polling begins for 5th and final phase of LS polls
Voting began on Wednesday across nine States and Union Territories in the fifth and final phase of Lok Sabha elections, but it wasn't clear even after four rounds whether the Congress-led UPA would get another term or the BJP-steered NDA would return to office after five years.
Over 10.78 crore voters have a say in electing 86 MPs to the 545-member lower house of Parliament in this phase.
The polling exercise began at 0700 hrs across 1.21 lakh booths.
The fifth phase saw polling action move to Tamil Nadu, where 39 seats are up for grabs, even as the battle still rages on in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh.
Uttar Pradesh, which sends the most number of MPs (80) to Parliament, and Jammu and Kashmir are the only two states to see polling in all the five phases.
Among the key contenders in this round are Congress' P Chidambaram and Md Azharuddin, BJP's Maneka and Varun Gandhi and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, DMK's T R Baalu, A Raja, Dayanidhi Maran and M K Azhagiri, MDMK's Vaiko, TC chief Mamata Banerjee and SP's Jayaprada.
Congress' Mani Shankar Aiyar, Sajjad Gani Lone of People's Conference, BJP's Vinod Khanna and Navjot Singh Sidhu are others who are prominent among the 1,432 candidates in the fray in this round.
Besides all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, elections would be held to four seats in Himachal Pradesh, two in Jammu and Kashmir, nine in Punjab, 14 in Uttar Pradesh, 11 in West Bengal, five in Uttarakhand and the lone one seat each in both Chandigarh and Puducherry.
Polling has been completed to 457 Lok Sabha seats since the exercise began on April 16. Results will be out on May 16.
A party or a coalition needs 272 seats in the Lok Sabha to stake claim to form a government.
The Lok Sabha has 545 members, but elections are held to 543 seats as two members are nominated from the Anglo-Indian community.
Over 10.78 crore voters have a say in electing 86 MPs to the 545-member lower house of Parliament in this phase.
The polling exercise began at 0700 hrs across 1.21 lakh booths.
The fifth phase saw polling action move to Tamil Nadu, where 39 seats are up for grabs, even as the battle still rages on in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh.
Uttar Pradesh, which sends the most number of MPs (80) to Parliament, and Jammu and Kashmir are the only two states to see polling in all the five phases.
Among the key contenders in this round are Congress' P Chidambaram and Md Azharuddin, BJP's Maneka and Varun Gandhi and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, DMK's T R Baalu, A Raja, Dayanidhi Maran and M K Azhagiri, MDMK's Vaiko, TC chief Mamata Banerjee and SP's Jayaprada.
Congress' Mani Shankar Aiyar, Sajjad Gani Lone of People's Conference, BJP's Vinod Khanna and Navjot Singh Sidhu are others who are prominent among the 1,432 candidates in the fray in this round.
Besides all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, elections would be held to four seats in Himachal Pradesh, two in Jammu and Kashmir, nine in Punjab, 14 in Uttar Pradesh, 11 in West Bengal, five in Uttarakhand and the lone one seat each in both Chandigarh and Puducherry.
Polling has been completed to 457 Lok Sabha seats since the exercise began on April 16. Results will be out on May 16.
A party or a coalition needs 272 seats in the Lok Sabha to stake claim to form a government.
The Lok Sabha has 545 members, but elections are held to 543 seats as two members are nominated from the Anglo-Indian community.
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