Wednesday, May 20, 2009

A Peace Overture in Afghanistan

Leaders of the Taliban and other armed groups battling the Afghan government are talking to intermediaries about a potential peace agreement, with initial demands focused on a timetable for a withdrawal of American troops, according to Afghan leaders here and in Pakistan.

The talks, if not the withdrawal proposals, are being supported by the Afghan government. The Obama administration, which has publicly declared its desire to coax “moderate” Taliban fighters away from armed struggle, says it is not involved in the discussions and will not be until the Taliban agree to lay down their arms. But nor are they trying to stop them, and Afghan officials believe they have tacit support from the Americans.

The discussions have so far produced no agreements, since the insurgents appear to be insisting that any deal include an American promise to pull out — at the very time that the Obama administration is sending more combat troops to help reverse the deteriorating situation on the battlefield. Indeed, with 20,000 additional troops on the way, American commanders seem determined to inflict greater pain on the Taliban first, to push them into negotiations and extract better terms. And most of the initial demands are nonstarters for the Americans in any case.

Even so, the talks are significant because they suggest how a political settlement may be able to end the eight-year-old war, and how such negotiations may proceed. They also raise the prospect of potentially difficult decisions by President Hamid Karzai and President Obama, who may have to consider making deals with groups like the Taliban that are anathema to many Americans, and other leaders with brutal and bloody pasts. Some of the leaders in the current talks have been involved with Al Qaeda.

While the talks have been under way for months, they have accelerated since Mr. Obama took office and have produced more specific demands, the Afghan intermediaries said.

The Taliban leaders, through their spokesman, and those of other armed groups publicly deny that they are involved in any negotiations. But several Afghans here and in Pakistan say they have been talking directly to the Taliban leadership group headed by Mullah Muhammad Omar, the movement’s secretive founder. The council is based in the Pakistani city of Quetta.

Discussions have also been held with representatives of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a longtime warlord with a record of extreme brutality, and with Sirajuddin Haqqani, whose guerrilla army is based in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Mr. Haqqani’s group is also known for its ruthlessness, and for sending suicide bombers into Afghanistan.

“America cannot win this war, and the Taliban cannot win this war,” Mullah Abdul Salaam Zaeef, a former Taliban ambassador and one of the intermediaries, said in an interview. “I have delivered this message to the Taliban.”

The talks under way now appear to be directed not at individual bands of antigovernment insurgents — the strategy suggested by President Obama — but at the leaders of the large movements.

American officials insist they are not participating in any talks. “The U.S. would support such efforts only if Taliban are willing to abandon violence and lay down their arms, and accept Afghanistan’s democratically elected government,” said Ian Kelly, a State Department spokesman. Still, two of the principal intermediaries, Mr. Zaeef and Daoud Abedi, said they had held extensive discussions with American officials.

A State Department memo described a single meeting with Mr. Abedi, but said it ended briefly because American officials were not permitted to meet with representatives of Mr. Hekmatyar. There is no independent confirmation of Mr. Zaeef ’s claim to have met with Americans.

Afghan officials said they welcomed the talks. “The government has kept all channels of communication open," said Homayun Hamidzada, a spokesman for Mr. Karzai. “This includes the Taliban and Hekmatyar.”

Mr. Abedi, an Afghan-American businessman from California and a member of Mr. Hekmatyar’s political party, the Islamic Party, said he conducted negotiations in March. Guerrillas loyal to Mr. Hekmatyar are battling the Americans in the mountains of eastern Afghanistan. His political party still has a wide following in the country.

In an interview, Mr. Abedi said he undertook the negotiations — with Mr. Hekmatyar and with the Taliban leaders — at the behest of the State Department, a claim that American officials deny. Mr. Abedi said he met several times with American officials in Washington before and after his trip to Pakistan and Afghanistan. He declined to say which American diplomats he met, saying, “I am a Pashtun, and I swore on my honor that I would not reveal the names of the people I met with, so I cannot.”

Mr. Abedi said he hammered out a common set of demands between the Taliban and Mr. Hekmatyar’s group. The groups agreed to stop fighting if those conditions were met, Mr. Abedi said. The Taliban’s demands seem incompatible with much of Mr. Obama’s strategy, which is to substantially weaken the Taliban through a combination of military force and economic development. Nor did the deal Mr. Abedi described mention either Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahri, the two senior Qaeda leaders who are believed to be hiding in Pakistan under the protection of the Taliban or some other armed group.

The first demand was an immediate pullback of American and other foreign forces to their bases, followed by a cease-fire and a total withdrawal from the country over the next 18 months. Then the current government would be replaced by a transitional government made up of a range of Afghan leaders, including those of the Taliban and other insurgents. Americans and other foreign soldiers would be replaced with a peacekeeping force drawn from predominantly Muslim nations, with a guarantee from the insurgent groups that they would not attack such a force. Nationwide elections would follow after the Western forces left.

As for Mr. Hekmatyar, Mr. Abedi said he maintained a “direct link” with the guerrilla leader, and that he was authorized to negotiate on his behalf. He did not meet with Afghan government officials.

After the agreement between the Taliban and the Islamic Party was reached, Mr. Abedi said the Taliban leaders added more conditions: an end to the drone attacks in Pakistan’s tribal areas, and a release of some Taliban prisoners.

Mr. Abedi said that when he returned to the United States with his proposal, he was greeted with enthusiasm by officials at the State Department. But he said they never called him back.

Mr. Hekmatyar earned a reputation as an especially brutal commander in the civil war that engulfed the country in the 1990s, in particular for the relentless bombardment of Kabul between 1994 and 1996 that killed an estimated 40,000 civilians during an attempt to capture the capital.

In 2002, after Mr. Hekmatyar resisted the American invasion, the Americans tried to kill him with a missile fired from a pilotless airplane. They missed.


The other main negotiation is led by Mr. Zaeef and Arsallah Rahmani, a former Taliban minister and now a member of the Afghan Parliament.

“We are not talking to low-ranking people — we are talking to the leaders,” Mr. Rahmani said in an interview. Mr. Zaeef was the Taliban’s ambassador to Pakistan; he served nearly four years in American military prisons, including the one at Guantánamo Bay.

Their plan would be for the guerrillas and the government to reconcile slowly, starting with the least contentious issues. One of the main low-level demands of the opposition leaders is that their names be removed from a so-called blacklist, contained in a resolution passed by the United Nations Security Council, which obliges governments to detain the men. More difficult issues would follow.

“Blood begets blood, but talking begets peace,” Mr. Rahmani said.

Mr. Zaeef said the public declarations of Mullah Omar, who usually vows to fight on, are not necessarily to be taken seriously.

“A policy can have many faces,” he said.

Bankruptcies Swell Deficit at Pension Agency to $33.5 Billion

The deficit at the federal agency that guarantees pensions for 44 million Americans tripled in the last six months to a record high, reaching $33.5 billion, largely as a result of surging bankruptcies among companies whose pensions it expects it will soon need to take over.

The agency, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, faced a shortfall of just $11 billion as of October. The combined effect of lower interest rates, losses on its investment portfolio and rising numbers of companies filing for bankruptcy produced the jump in its projected deficit, officials said Wednesday.

Because the agency has $56 billion in assets — most of which is invested in Treasury bonds — it is not facing any prospect of default in the short term, officials said.

“The P.B.G.C. has sufficient funds to meet its benefit obligations for many years because benefits are paid monthly over the lifetimes of beneficiaries, not as lump sums,” the agency’s acting director, Vince Snowbarger, testified Wednesday at a Senate hearing. “Nevertheless, over the long term, the deficit must be addressed.”

The financial troubles are just a small part of the challenges facing the pension agency, which was created by Congress in 1974 and today is responsible for pension programs covering 1.3 million people. It pays about 640,000 people actual benefits worth about $4.3 billion a year.

The P.B.G.C.’s former director, Charles E. F. Millard, was subpoenaed to testify at the hearing Wednesday. But he cited his Constitutional right to avoid self-incrimination and declined to answer any questions.

Mr. Millard, who resigned in January, has been accused by the agency’s inspector general of having inappropriate contact with companies including BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, all of which competed for and won contracts to help manage $2.5 billion of the agency’s funds. Those contracts will now most likely be canceled.

Employers nationwide with so-called defined-benefit, or traditional, pension plans pay fees to the P.B.G.C. in return for a promise that it will take over their pension plan if a company fails.

On Tuesday, for example, the agency announced that it had assumed the pension plan once run by the Lenox Group, a bankrupt maker of tableware, giftware and collectibles based in Eden Prairie, Minn. Assuming control of pensions for this company’s 4,300 workers will cost the agency an estimated $128 million — the difference between what Lenox had in its pension fund and what the total estimated obligations are.

In the last six months, 93 companies whose pension plans are covered by the agency have filed for bankruptcy, including Chrysler, whose failure alone could cost the agency $2 billion. A bankruptcy by General Motors would make the situation worse. G.M. had 670,000 workers as of late last year in its pension system, whose collapse would cost the agency an estimated $6 billion.

Options to close the $33.5 billion deficit include a federal bailout by taxpayers, a change in insurance premiums it charges employers or increasing its investment returns.

Last year, the agency’s board voted to allow it to shift its investment strategy to put more money into stocks, private equity and real estate, in an effort to reduce the deficit.

If that shift had taken place, the losses would most likely have been larger. But only a relatively small amount of the funds have already been shifted to stocks, so the losses on the investment portfolio were responsible for just $3 billion of the jump in the deficit in the last six months.

Senator Herb Kohl, Democrat of Wisconsin and chairman of the Senate Special Committee on Aging, which held the hearing Wednesday, blamed poor supervision by the agency’s board and management, at least in part, for the troubles, adding that he intended to introduce legislation that would expand the board and require it to meet at least four times a year. The board has not met in person since February 2008.

“The role of P.B.G.C. is too crucial to allow its governance to slip through the cracks,” Mr. Kohl said.

Gurkhas to get right to settle in the UK

Gurkha veterans who have served four years with the historic regiment will be told tomorrow that they will be allowed to settle in the UK. The home secretary is expected to reverse government guidance issued last month that made the obstacles to entry almost insurmountable for ordinary Gurkha soldiers traditionally recruited from Nepal.

It is understood that Jacqui Smith will announce rules that will allow entry into the UK for Gurkhas previously excluded because they retired from the regiment before 1997, provided they have fought for the British army for at least four years.

Keith Vaz, chairman of the home affairs select committee, wrote to the prime minister on Tuesday saying the government should immediately approve the 1,400 outstanding applications for settlement, whether they meet new criteria established by the Home Office or not.

In a reprimand to the government, Vaz said: "The figure of 100,000 ex-Gurkhas including dependants publicly cited by the government as likely to take up settlement is clearly much overblown."

The prospective turnaround in policy came after the Labour government suffered its first big defeat last month by 21 votes, as 27 Labour rebels joined the Tories and Liberal Democrats in demanding equal residency rights for all Gurkha soldiers after a high-profile public campaign.

In an indication of the imminent policy volte face, Gordon Brown said at prime minister's questions that he had a "great deal of sympathy and support" for Gurkhas who wished to live in the UK. He said: "I believe it is possible for us to honour our commitments to the Gurkhas and to do so in a way that protects the public finances. That will be part of the announcement that is made tomorrow."

The Vaz letter to the prime minister followed a private round table discussion between Gurkhas and their campaigners and the government on the issue. The committee urged the government to "use our conclusions as a catalyst to announcing a much-needed change in policy".

He said the prospective benefit to the UK economy by the ex-Gurkhas was agreed by all to be high, both in terms of skills and economic power and in visa application fees. The committee had heard no evidence of a threat to future recruitment of Gurkhas to the British army in Nepal.

Martin Howe, one of the lawyers representing the majority of Gurkhas fighting for settlement, said: "We hope that the Gurkhas will be entitled to settlement if they have four years' service. We understand that this will be reviewed in four years time. If this is the case, we will be delighted and thankful."

David Enright, another Gurkha lawyer, said: "We think it's more or less a fait accompli but we have had several false dawns before ... I'm not going to celebrate until I know for sure."

Earlier this month, actor Joanna Lumley extracted concessions from the home office minister Phil Woolas live on television. Five Gurkhas had been sent letters telling them that they did not qualify for admittance to the UK a day after Brown had promised that the former solders' cases would be reviewed. Brown had not known about the letters and was only informed of their existence by Lumley.

Power drill doctor saves boy's life

A doctor in rural Australia used a handyman's power drill to bore a hole into the skull of a boy with a severe head injury, saving his life.

Nicholas Rossi was taken to hospital after falling from his bike and hitting his head on the pavement in Maryborough, Victoria state, on Friday.

The doctor on duty, Rob Carson, recognised that the boy, who was slipping in and out of consciousness, was experiencing potentially fatal bleeding on the brain and that he needed to relieve the pressure in Daniel's skull.

The small hospital was not equipped with neurological drills, so Carson sent for a household drill from the maintenance room.

He called a neurosurgeon in Melbourne for help, who talked Carson through the procedure – which he had never before attempted – by telling him where to aim the drill and how deep to go.

The boy's father, Michael Rossi, told the Australian newspaper: "Dr Carson came over to us and said, 'I am going to have to drill into [Nicholas] to relieve the pressure on the brain – we've got one shot at this and one shot only'."

He told Fairfax Radio today: "All of a sudden the emergency ward was turned into an operating theatre. We didn't see anything, but we heard the noises, heard the drill. It was just one of those surreal experiences."

The procedure took just over a minute, said Dr David Tynan, an anaesthetist who assisted Carson.

"It was pretty scary. You obviously worry, [are] you pushing hard enough or pushing too hard, but then when some blood came out after we'd gone through the skull, we realised we'd made the right decision," he told Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Rossi was airlifted to a larger hospital in Melbourne and released yesterday, his 13th birthday.

Carson told the Australian: "It is not a personal achievement, it is just a part of the job and I had a very good team of people helping me."

Tamil children 'being abducted'

number of children in camps for people displaced by Sri Lanka's Tamil conflict have been abducted, international human rights groups say.

The groups say they have verified reports of disappearances in the Vavuniya area and are calling for the United Nations to investigate.

Suspected former Tamil Tiger child soldiers are said to have been removed by paramilitaries for questioning.

A Sri Lankan military spokesman denied the groups' allegations.

A spokeswoman for the groups, Charu Lata Hogg, said the motives for the abductions were unclear but some children were being questioned about alleged links to the Tamil Tiger rebels, or LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam).

Tens of thousands of children were among those displaced in the recent fighting, many finding themselves in government-run refugee camps.

On Tuesday, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa declared the country "liberated" from Tamil Tiger rebels after a 26-year war.

He spoke after the army reported the death of rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran and the capture of the last pocket of territory held by the Tigers.

'Kidnapped for ransom'

The Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers is an umbrella group of global organisations which includes Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

It said it had received verified reports of abductions from camps in and around Vavuniya in the north.

It alleges that groups like the EPDP, PLOTE and the TMVP-Karuna faction - all Tamil paramilitary groups affiliated to the government - have unfettered access to the camps despite the presence of the Sri Lankan military.

"The motive is slightly unclear," said Ms Hogg.

"Some are being taken away for ransom, they've been kidnapped for ransom, and there've been certain negotiated releases where mothers had some jewellery and they could negotiate a release right within the camp.

"In other cases the children have been taken away for questioning for their alleged links to the LTTE, so they are suspected of being former child soldiers with the LTTE."

She says there are fears for the safety of former LTTE child soldiers, who should be protected under international agreements.

Sri Lanka's military denied the allegations, describing them as yet another attempt to discredit the government.

Military spokesman Udaya Nanayakkara said it was impossible for "anyone, even a child or an LTTE person, to be taken out from the camps without any proper or legal authority".

The coalition says the protection of children in the north and east of Sri Lanka is a matter of urgent concern, citing the refusal of access to international agencies responsible for monitoring the camps.

Without independent scrutiny, it says, children are at risk of human rights abuses, arbitrary detention and enforced disappearance.

Cabinet ministers press Gordon Brown for radical shakeup of politics

Gordon Brown is being pressed within his cabinet to extend plans to reform parliament, with proposals including setting up a constitutional convention that would be responsible for reconnecting ­politics with the people.

An intense cabinet-level debate is under way on the format of this initiative, its timescale and the range of issues that would be discussed. The enthusiasts for wider reform include Harriet Harman, leader of the Commons, James Purnell, the work and pensions secretary, and David Miliband, the foreign secretary.

The discussions were launched inside the cabinet by the business secretary, Lord Mandelson, when he raised the idea of a British constitutional convention on the model of the Scottish constitutional convention.

What the modernisers inside the ­cabinet want on the agenda is:

• A referendum on electoral reform for the House of Commons.

• An elected upper house.

• Spending caps on donations to political parties.

• A widening of the base from which candidates are drawn.

However, some senior cabinet figures argue a more radical agenda should be deferred for Labour's general election manifesto, and are sceptical that broader constitutional reform, including changes to the electoral system, will address public anger over expenses. There are also fears a big initiative would divert from the priorities of the recession and public services.

The sceptics would prefer the review to be confined to modernising parliament, with measures including strengthening the power of backbenchers.

The cabinet debate comes as a "furious" David Cameron last night forced the retirement of a former Conservative minister who unsuccessfully claimed £1,645 for a floating 5ft high "duck island" at his country house. Sir Peter Viggers, MP for Gosport, was told he would be stripped of the Tory whip unless he agreed to retire.

Purnell defended his claims last night after the Daily Telegraph reported that he avoided paying capital gains tax on the sale of a London flat even though he told the Commons authorities that his main home was in his Stalybridge and Hyde constituency. Purnell said he had not avoided paying the tax when he sold the London flat in October 2004, originally bought before he became an MP, because the London sale fell through when he bought his constituency property in June 2002. The eventual sale took place within the timeframe that meant no tax was payable.

Beyond Westminster, there is a growing sense that the crisis over MPs' expenses can be used as an opportunity to completely reshape the democratic process. Today, the Guardian publishes a four-page supplement on proposals for reforming politics. The ideas, ranging from the size and shape of parliament to the nature of political lobbying, are being debated in an online project on the Comment is Free website. Identifying more than two dozen areas for reform, the series aims to break down ­barriers between ­opinion-formers and the public.

Brown has hinted about the potential to use the expenses crisis to reconfigure the political landscape twice in the past 24 hours – at a press conference on Tuesday and at yesterday's prime minister's questions. He is likely to publish a reform paper after the expected drubbing in the ­European elections on 4 June.

At the minimum, it is thought that the review will examine the relationship between the executive and parliament, including how MPs can more easily influence the subjects for debate and vote on the floor of the chamber. It will also look at whether select committees can be appointed independently of party whips and examine ways for reconnecting people with parliament. The digital inclusion minister, Tom Watson, told a Lords select committee yesterday that MPs and peers should set up a self-publishing platform.

Lord Mandelson himself probably does not believe in trying to seize the initiative by proposing a "big bang" constitutional reform though a constitutional convention. But advocates of more radical reform pressed Brown during yesterday's PMQs.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, said: "We now have a once-in-a-generation chance to change politics for good."

Brown said today: "We must consider not only how parliament can be more accountable to the people, but how the executive … can be more accountable."

New light on Down's cancer link

Scientists may have solved the mystery of why people with Down's syndrome seem to have a lower risk of some cancers.

The extra copy of chromosome 21 which causes Down's appears to contain a gene that protects from solid cancerous tumours, tests on mice suggest.

The gene seems to interfere with signals a tumour relies on to grow. The finding raises hope of new ways to prevent and treat cancer.

The study by the Children's Hospital of Boston appears in the journal Nature.

Humans usually have two copies of the 23 chromosomes that together contain all our genetic information, one from each parent.

Down's syndrome is a genetic disorder which results from the presence of an extra, third copy of chromosome 21.

It has been known for some time that individuals with Down's syndrome get certain types of cancer less often than those without the condition.

However, the reason why has been unclear.

The latest study showed that having an extra copy of one of the genes located on chromosome 21 - a gene called Dscr1 - is sufficient to slow cancer growth in mice.

The gene seems to work in combination with another gene also found on chromosome 21 to interfere with the signals a tumour relies upon to stimulate growth of its own blood vessels.

Without those vessels feeding the tumour with its own supply of blood it cannot thrive.

Inspiration

Writing in the journal, the researchers, led by Dr Sandra Ryeom, said: "It is, perhaps, inspiring that the Down's syndrome population provides us with new insight into mechanisms that regulate cancer growth and, by so doing, identifies potential targets for tumour prevention and therapy."

Dr Kairbaan Hodivala-Dilke, a Cancer Research UK scientist at Queen Mary, University of London, said: "This finding raises several important questions about the roles of other chromosome 21 genes that might help regulate tumour growth.

"The next stage is to think about how we might be able to exploit this research to improve cancer treatments in the future."

Stuart Mills, of the Down's Syndrome Association, said: "We have known for some time that people with Down's syndrome have lower incidences of cancer, apart from leukaemia, than the rest of the population.

"This is one of the first studies to examine the reasons why, and we welcome its findings. We will be following further research with great interest."