Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Automakers see optimistic signs in latest sales numbers

Major automakers today reported sharp declines in May auto sales compared with a year earlier but said sales rebounds from April were sparking optimism that the industry's long downturn might be ending.

"Clearly, we're starting to see the industry, both globally and in the Untied States, start to see a turn for the positive," said Mike DiGiovanni, General Motors Corp.'s lead sales analyst. "We think we're starting to emerge from this global downturn."


Industrywide, sales of cars, pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles in the U.S. plummeted almost 34% compared with May 2008, according to Autodata Corp. It was the 17th consecutive year-over-year decline in monthly sales, although sales were up almost 13% compared with April.

GM, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday, saw its May sales fall almost 29% compared with the same month a year earlier, according to Autodata. But sales were up 11% compared with April.

Ford Motor Co. reported that its U.S. sales of cars and light trucks fell 24% in May compared with the year-ago period, but noted that its sales were up 20% over April. Ford said May was its strongest month for sales since last July.


Chrysler, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on April 30, said May sales fell 47% compared with a year earlier but said May was still its best sales month of the year, with sales of its Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands showing double-digit percentage increases from the previous month.

GM and Ford reported better results than their two biggest Japanese rivals. Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. reported year-over-year sales declines of 41% and 42% in the U.S., respectively, according to Autodata. Like Ford and GM, Toyota also reported an uptick compared with April, notching a 20% month-to-month sales gain. But Honda's sales fell almost 3% compared with April.

Nissan had the best performance for the Big Three Japanese automakers, reporting a 33% decline in U.S. sales last month. It also notched an impressive 43% jump in sales from April.

The increase from April was particularly gratifying for GM, which spent the month dealing with a well-publicized slide into bankruptcy and a controversial plan to drastically cut its dealer ranks. GM executives said sales picked up markedly at the end of the month, even as it became apparent that the company was headed for bankruptcy court.

"This gives us a lot of confidence that some of the negative issues we've had to deal with are behind us and haven't affected our sales," DiGiovanni said. GM said supportive comments from President Obama may have helped bolster consumers, who also may have grown somewhat inured to news of corporate disarray over the last several months.

Auto website Edmunds.com said in a report last week that reports from dealer showrooms indicated that GM and Chrysler's financial struggles weren't necessarily scaring away buyers.

"Clearly, media coverage of a potential bankruptcy or liquidation does impact sales, but the stigma of bankruptcy seems to have been vastly overstated," Edmunds said in its report.

Analysts will be watching today to see if that increased traffic translated into higher sales for the overall industry. In April, U.S. light-vehicle sales -- which include cars, pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles -- were running at an average annualized rate of 9.3 million units. That compared with total sales of 13.2 million in 2008 and 16.1 million in 2007.

Ford sales analysts estimated that May sales for the industry might come in at a 10 million-vehicle annual rate, although they cautioned that the next three months would probably be volatile as GM and Chrysler worked their way through bankruptcy and the economy struggled to find firm footing.

"It's still a very fragile industry," said Ken Czubay, Ford's vice president of sales and marketing. "This isn't any time to rejoice. It's just a slight uptick."

Analysts were cautiously encouraged by Ford's report.

"Some news, such as year-over-year improvement at Lincoln, and increased quarterly production plans and lower inventory, appear to us to be more than just press-release hype," Efraim Levy, auto analyst with Standard & Poor's Equity Research, wrote in a research note. "Still, we see economic risks, as well as industry-specific risks, from weak suppliers."

Ford said sales of its new Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan hybrids helped boost its monthly performance, as did strong sales of its redesigned 2010 Ford Mustang. GM said its new Chevrolet Camaro also was selling as fast as it could be delivered to dealers.

U.S. auto sales have plummeted as the credit crisis and the worst recession since the 1930s have kept consumers out of dealer showrooms. The Detroit automakers have been hard particularly hit, and steep drops in sales helped push Chrysler and GM into bankruptcy court.

Edmunds.com projected last week that May auto sales would be down 36.1% industrywide compared with the same month a year earlier. But the firm expected sales to show a 9% increase over April.

"Consumer confidence, a key factor in car buying, rose in May by the most in six years and is now at a level not seen since last September," Michelle Krebs, senior editor at AutoObserver.com, said in a report last week. "This good news couldn't come soon enough for the auto industry, and the benefits are already coming in for most automakers."

The current stock market rally, which has seen the Dow Jones industrial average jump 33% since early March, also is helping car sales, analysts said, although there has been some concern that the rapid rise in gasoline prices since the start of the year could dampen car buyers' enthusiasm.

California Lands Commission spurns Schwarzenegger's oil drilling proposal

The State Lands Commission on Monday lashed out at an attempt by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to allow the first new oil drilling in California waters since 1969.

Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, chairman of the three-member panel, called the governor's effort "a naked power grab." At a contentious hearing in Santa Monica, the commission passed a resolution urging legislators not to go along with the plan, which would revive a drilling proposal off the Santa Barbara County coast that the commission killed in January.



At issue is a complex arrangement crafted by Plains Exploration & Production, a Texas oil company, and a coalition of Santa Barbara environmental groups. Under the plan, the oil company would drill into the state's seafloor from a platform it owns in federal waters, just beyond the three-mile limit. In return, the company would agree to shut down that platform and three others by 2022 and to donate 4,000 acres of land for public use.

Seen as a way to eventually end much of the drilling in the Santa Barbara Channel, the idea was hailed as an unprecedented compromise by a broad range of environmental organizations that supported it in January. But many of those groups now oppose the plan if it would require an end-run around the Lands Commission, which has authority over oil drilling and other sensitive issues.

In budget proposals last month, Schwarzenegger suggested revisiting the Tranquillon Ridge drilling plan. The governor is asking the Legislature to transfer authority over the project to his finance department. Over 14 years, Tranquillon Ridge would provide about $2 billion to the state -- a "very important source of revenue," according to commission member Tom Sheehy, deputy director of the California Department of Finance.


"With a $23-billion deficit, now is not the time for business as usual," he said.

At Monday's hearing, Garamendi dismissed assurances from the Schwarzenegger administration that his panel's independence would not be eroded.

"You've taken the position of destroying several decades of work by this commission," he told Sheehy, pointing out that it was established in the late 1930s after an oil scandal had snared state officials.

Sheehy countered that there was nothing wrong with legislative oversight. "The power this body has can be changed, altered, truncated or terminated at any time by statutes," he said. "Let's not forget that."

Even the environmentalists behind the Tranquillon Ridge compromise criticized the governor's eagerness to get it done. Linda Krop, an attorney for the Environmental Defense Center, told the panel her group has "grave concerns" about the precedent that would be set in bypassing the commission.

In January, the commission concluded that it would be impossible to enforce the part of the deal that would require the oil company to end its drilling. Some environmentalists and legislators also feared it would encourage U.S. officials to allow further drilling in federal waters off California.

But the plan can be modified, Krop said, and it should be the Lands Commission that reconsiders it.

Garamendi and state Controller John Chiang voted to urge legislators to resist the governor's idea.

Earlier, Sheehy had left abruptly after receiving news that his father-in-law had just died in a traffic accident. He asked that the hearing proceed and a vote be taken, Garamendi said.

Villaraigosa's new girlfriend needs to read the book on him

As far as I can recall, my wife has never touched my chest while at Chevalier's bookstore on Larchmont Boulevard. And if she ever touched my stomach while browsing there, it was probably not an amorous gesture, but rather a reminder to either suck in my gut or shed some weight.

Maybe that's because we've been together for 15 years, unlike Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and his new girlfriend Lu Parker, who is, of course, a TV reporter.

He definitely has a type, and this one is not just a TV personality, but a former Miss USA.

NBC Channel 4 reported on their physical contact at the bookstore, but I can also imagine them walking hand-in-hand from Chevalier to the mayoral mansion, talking about world peace.

In what seems like an unmistakable case of de ja vu all over again, the mayor has put another female TV journalist on the defensive. We can only hope, for Lu Parker's sake, that a fling with the mayor doesn't send her into career exile, which is what happened to Mirthala Salinas of KVEA-TV.

Already there are ethical questions, given that Parker allegedly began dating Hizzoner in March, and on Sunday, as weekend anchor, Parker read a story on air about whether her boy toy would run for governor. She also has a video clip and photo of Villaraigosa on her website.

I don't know Parker, although we work for the same rascals, but I would strongly urge her to call Mirthala Salinas for some quick counsel. After the mayor was done with Salinas, she ended up in the Riverside bureau and he ended up talking about a run for governor, so the mayor may not understand the concept of equity in a relationship.

As far as I know, KTLA does not have a Riverside bureau, so there are not a lot of safe landing spots for Parker should she and the mayor break up, although with a Miss USA title after her name, she could probably catch on at one of the dancing or singing shows as a judge.

As for KTLA, general manager Don Corsini told the Times, "As far as I'm concerned, it's a personal matter."

Is it? Seems to me that if she's dating the mayor, she shouldn't be within six miles of a story about him, especially now that we're all stuck on the image of her touching his chest and stomach in a bookstore.

According to Channel 4, Parker was overheard looking at a book about Kenya and said to Villaraigosa, 'We should buy it for our trip.' "

All I can say is, "Stop, in the name of love."

Is this a honeymoon? A vacation? A junket sponsored by L.A. taxpayers?

We've got to have all the answers and we've got to have them fast.

This mayor has not exactly set the world on fire, and a big part of the problem has been a lack of focus. He was all over the country stumping for Hillary Clinton, and as a second mayoral term begins, there's already speculation that he might ditch the city to run for governor.

Given all the problems in L.A., from a massive budget deficit to a teacher revolt at the high school he attended and later took control of, can he -- no, can we -- afford another distraction?

For an ending, I can't do better than the ending in today's published story by Times reporter Phil Willon. He noted that when Villaraigosa and Parker were in Chevalier, two authors were signing copies of their book, "Smart Girls Marry Money: How Women Have Been Duped Into the Romantic Dream."

Group Therapy Prevents Depression in Teens, Study Finds

Depression often strikes during adolescence, and teenagers whose parents have a history of depression are at particularly high risk. Now, a large clinical trial has found that a group cognitive behavioral program that teaches coping and problem-solving skills to these high-risk teens can reduce their risk of developing the mood disorder.

But the success rate of the prevention program varied greatly depending on the mental health status of the teenagers’ parents at the time they began intervention, the study also found. The program was much more effective than standard care if the teens’ parents were also without depression when the intervention began.

The study was published in this week’s Journal of the American Medical Association.

“Were we surprised? No,” said Judy Garber, a professor of psychology and human development at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. “There is evidence in the literature that kids don’t respond as well to treatment if the parent is depressed.”

John Weisz, a professor of psychology at Harvard University who was not involved in the trial, said the results may help identify the best candidates for the prevention program.

He said there were several reasons why treatment may be less effective when an adolescent’s parent is depressed. “It may be the biological risk for depression is greater in these adolescents — that if the parents were once depressed but aren’t depressed any longer, the biological risk isn’t as great," he said.

Another possibility is that living with a depressed parent is difficult and stressful for a child, he added, while a third possibility is that teenagers model their parents’ behavior.

The new study is a randomized controlled clinical trial conducted in four cities: Nashville, Boston, Pittsburgh and Portland, Ore. The trial included 316 adolescents between the ages of 13 and 17, all of whom had parents who were depressed or had been depressed at some earlier point in the child’s life.

The teenagers were randomly assigned to either the prevention program, which consisted of eight weekly 90-minute group sessions followed by six monthly sessions, or to receive only the usual care.

While almost one-third of the teens who got the usual care developed depression during the eight months of the study, only 21 percent of teens who participated in the prevention program became depressed.

But among teens whose parents were free of depression when the intervention started, the impact of the prevention program was more dramatic. Only 11.7 percent of those teens became depressed, compared to 40.5 percent of teens with healthy parents who received the usual care.

Among teenagers whose parents were depressed, the cognitive behavioral program was only slightly more effective. Some 31.2 percent of these adolescents went on to become depressed themselves, compared with 24.3 percent among those who received the usual care. The researchers said that difference was not statistically significant

YouTube Moves Closer to the Boob Tube

In January, YouTube rolled out a version of its popular video-sharing site that was tailored for the television screen. It offered a stripped-down interface that did away with extra features like comments and scroll bars. The result looked more like the screen on your cable service’s channel guide than a Web site.

But YouTube.com TV only worked on game consoles connected to a TV set, such as a Nintendo Wii or a Sony PlayStation 3. (YouTube, which is owned by Google, has also made its clips accessible on televisions through TiVo, Apple TV and select TV sets.)

On Tuesday, the company unveiled YouTube.com/XL, a revamped version of YouTube.com/TV that works on any Web browser that can be connected to a TV, whether it is a game console, a PC or another device. It is intended to be viewed on a television set or on a large PC screen. It can be controlled not only with a keyboard, but also with some remote controls. And it can be made to display a series of clips continuously, a bit like photos on a digital photo frame. The viewing experience is especially striking for high-definition videos watched in full-screen mode on a TV set.

YouTube’s move is the latest in a string of developments that aim to bring Internet content to television screens and to allow users to interact with that content from their couch. It comes just a week after YouTube’s top online rival, Hulu, unveiled a desktop app that can be controlled through a remote.

However, many content providers, already nervous about their content being watched online, have been reluctant to allow television viewing of full-length episodes they post online. As a result, YouTube XL, which stands for “YouTube extra large,” does not have many of the full-length shows from premium partners that are available on the regular YouTube service. The company said it is working out rights issues with content owners. For now, YouTube.com/XL has no ads, but expect that to change, especially if YouTube is trying to persuade TV networks and film studios to make their content available on the extra-large screen.

Obama Says U.S. Could Be Seen as a Muslim Country, Too

As President Obama prepared to leave Washington to fly to the Middle East, he conducted several television and radio interviews at the White House to frame the goals for a five-day trip, including the highly-anticipated speech Thursday at Cairo University in Egypt.

In an interview with Laura Haim on Canal Plus, a French television station, Mr. Obama noted that the United States also could be considered as “one of the largest Muslim countries in the world.” He sought to downplay the expectations of the speech, but he said he hoped the address would raise awareness about Muslims.

“Now, I think it’s very important to understand that one speech is not going to solve all the problems in the Middle East,” Mr. Obama said. ” And so I think expectations should be somewhat modest.”

He previewed several themes and objectives for the speech, which aides said the president intended to tinker with — and rewrite — aboard Air Force One during his 12-hour flight to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

“What I want to do is to create a better dialogue so that the Muslim world understands more effectively how the United States, but also how the West thinks about many of these difficult issues like terrorism, like democracy, to discuss the framework for what’s happened in Iraq and Afghanistan and our outreach to Iran, and also how we view the prospects for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians,” Mr. Obama said.

The president said the United States and other parts of the Western world “have to educate ourselves more effectively on Islam.”

Assaults on Indians 'not race-based'

AS protests grow louder against allegedly race-motivated attacks against Indian students in Australia, police say the number of such robberies and assaults is falling.

Police commander Trevor Carter, whose division covers Melbourne's west, the national hotspot for attacks, said yesterday assaults on Indians had declined over the past three months.

However, the police chief's comments coincided with another attack, in which a 21-year-old Indian student was slashed with a box-cutter when confronted yesterday afternoon by five men who demanded money and cigarettes at Dandenong, in Melbourne's southeast.

Police said there was nothing to indicate that the assault, which within hours was being widely reported on Indian news websites, was racially motivated.

But following a series of such incidents, Victorian Attorney-General Rob Hulls said yesterday the state Government was planning to introduce a law requiring judges to "take into account whether or not a crime has been committed purely based on hatred or vilification of a particular group" and to apply tougher sentences if so.

However, one of Australia's leading experts on race hate attacks, Sydney-based Jeremy Jones, said that while "racists are everywhere", there was no sign of a surge in organised racist groups in Australia.

He said that, overall, Australia was "pretty close to world's best practice in inter-communal relations".

"My recent experience is that those responsible are most likely to be idiotic thugs," said Mr Jones, a former executive president of the Australian Council ofJewry.

"Then racist groups, who are generally not able to organise the purchase of a pizza, jump aboard and claim credit."

Mr Carter said that, over the past six or seven years, there had been a big increase in the number of international students, with a concentration especially of Indian students in and around the inner-western suburbs.

He said that, in 2006-07, police had seen a rise in robberies and assaults in the general community, Indians among the victims.

Police investigating a crime would make their own assessment of a victim's ethnicity, but this might be extremely broad; a person from Fiji or Pakistan might be described, for instance, as "Indian".

Police became concerned about this trend some time ago, Mr Carter said, and had increased their presence at danger spots, especially public transport and shopping centres.

At the same time, Mr Carter said, police had been conducting covert operations in areas of greatest concern.

The police also formed at the start of this year a reference group with the Indian community in the west. Mr Carter said that "despite our efforts" police continued to see attacks against Indians in which robbers targeted laptop computers, mobile phones, iPods and cash.

"It was clear the problem needed police interventions, and needed support from the community," Mr Carter said. "We shared their concerns."

Mr Carter said that, although crimes were trending down, "that doesn't mean we take the foot off the pedal".

He said police believed that Indian students had suffered disproportionately because they were more vulnerable. Many needed to take jobs, often at late hours, to support themselves, and they used public transport heavily, often at times when few other passengers were travelling.

Offenders, Mr Carter said, reflected the broad range of ethnicity in the region, with most crimes coming from single attackers or groups of two or three.

"We're not hearing of such crimes being associated with words derogatory to Indians."

Associate professor Gail Mason of the University of Technology, Sydney, said most race-hate crimes tended to be opportunistic rather than planned.

She believed the phrase "curry bashing" -- not in wide currency in Australia until the past few days -- had been introduced from Britain, where such crimes appeared to be more common.

Ms Mason said data about hate crimes was inadequate, partly because police needed better training in identifying motives.