Thursday, June 18, 2009

River basin studies: A half-hearted attempt

The Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) on River Valley and Hydroelectric Projects of the Ministry of Environment and Forests of the Government of India has recently approved the Terms of Reference for conducting basin level studies of the Bichom and Lohit river basins in Arunachal Pradesh. The EAC has been constituted under the EIA notification 2006 to examine projects that apply to the Ministry for environmental clearance.
According to the TOR, the basin studies envisage "providing optimum support for various natural processes and allowing sustainable activities undertaken by its inhabitants". The Bichom and Lohit basins are among the river basins in the Himalayas where massive plans for building large dams and developing hydropower are being rolled out. More than a hundred projects with installed capacities totalling to 54,000 MW are at various stages of planning and implementation just in the state of Arunachal itself.
Often, a large number of dams are planned on single rivers or in single basins. For example, in the Lohit basin, a cascade of six projects totalling to 7918 MW are being planned, all within a length of 86 kms.
The need for basin studies
Such cascade-type development or a number of dams in a single basin raise the critically important issue of cumulative impacts. Often, the impact of all projects taken together is much greater than the sum of impacts of individual projects. Unfortunately, cumulative impacts are hardly ever assessed, as individual projects are planned and evaluated separately. One of the strongest criticisms against the recent plans of dam building has been the complete lack of any assessment of the carrying capacity - what level of development, and in particular the number of dams a basin can sustain - and of the totality of impacts of the number of dams and projects in the basinIndeed, when the impact assessment of even individual projects is patchy at best and often farcical, it would be too much to expect a proper cumulative impact assessment.
Against this background, the decision to undertake basin level studies in the Lohit and Bichom are welcome steps in the right direction. The TORs of the basin studies indicate that wide-ranging and extensive examination has been called for, as is necessary for any such study. The TORs call for "inventorisation and analysis of the existing resource base and its production, consumption and conservation levels, determination of regional ecological fragility/sensitivity based on geo-physical, biological, socio-economic and cultural attributes, review of existing and planned developments as per various developmental plans, and evaluation of impacts on various facets of environment due to existing and planned development."
The studies are to then assess the stress/load due to various activities and suggest environmental action plans that can involve preclusion or modification any activity and measures. Unfortunately, the good part ends with this. The way the studies have been structured ends up defeating the very purpose of carrying them out. A self-defeating exercise
First and foremost, the basin studies have been effectively de-linked from the implementation of the projects as there is no requirement that the projects be conditional to the findings of the basin studies. Neither is there any explicit stay on the consideration and implementation of any of the projects pending the studies.
Logically, the basin studies should suggest what level of development, including hydropower projects, the basin can sustain. The projects should be planned based on this. However, the current planning and decision making turns this on its head. The numbers, locations, capacities, types and other details of the projects have already been decided. Many of these projects have already been allotted to (mostly) private developers who already have or would soon be approaching the Ministry for environmental clearance. In Bichom basin, the 600 MW Bichom (or Kameng) project is already under construction.
It is clear that the Expert Appraisal Committee understood this issue. The Minutes of its meeting dated 15 and 16 December 2008 record that "The committee noted that the study will be completed in two years and M/s WAPCOS has been entrusted with the job. In case, any project on this basin is submitted during this study period for environmental clearance, how the outcome of the study will help to take a decision could not be clarified." The obvious solution is to put on hold the projects till the studies are done. However, what the Committee decided is that "the report may be submitted within six months by reducing the TOR and the study should focus only on hydroelectric projects."
Thus, studies that would need about two years are to be done in six months (later this was extended to nine) with reduced TORs. How the outcome of such truncated studies would help rational environmental decision making is a question. It is clear that the environmental objectives have been sidelined with an eye to build as many dams as possible.
The TOR for the studies does state that they can recommend the "preclusion of any activity", which presumably means that they can call for any or some of the hydropower plants not to be built. In reality, such an outcome is highly unlikely, as is seen from the reluctance to explicitly put on hold the projects in the basin pending the results of the study. While the Committee has from time to time discussed with concern the possible impacts of large number of projects in a single basin, it has fallen shy of taking the right, but hard decision when actually dealing with the problem.
The TORs for the basin studies lay out in detail many parameters that need to be studied, field data that needs to be collected, but fail to require that the local communities be consulted and involved in the process.
High Court pulls up NEAAWhose expert is an expert? For example, the Lohit basin study
was originally envisaged and put forward as a condition while granting clearance for pre-construction activities to the Upper and Lower Demwe projects in March 2008. But the Minutes of the EAC meeting of July 2008, while discussing the basin study note that "Environmental Clearance to Demwe Upper and Demwe Lower HE Project should not be linked up with the completion of basin study." These two projects add up to 3430 MW, a full 43 per cent of the total 7918 MW planned in the basin.
Further, considering that the studies are to be paid for by the project developers - in proportion to the size of the projects they have been allotted - the conflict of interest is clear.
An earlier such basin study - to determined the carrying capacity of the Teesta basin in Sikkim, initiated in 2001 - at least had a condition that no project will be considered for environmental clearance till the carrying study is completed. That study took over five years. However, the MoEF violated its own condition and accorded clearance to several projects even before the study was completed. On the other hand, based on the recommendations of the study, the MoEF has asked the Sikkim Government to drop five hydropower projects above Chungthang, and restrict the height of those below it. This shows that findings of such studies are likely to require significant rethinking of dam building plans in the river basins.
Neeraj Vagholikar, who is with the environmental organisation Kalpavriksh and has studied dam projects in the North-East since 2001 says about the Bichom and Lohit studies: "The reluctance to put on hold individual project clearances till comprehensive river basin studies are completed puts a question mark on the utility of the entire exercise. Moreover, the river basin studies will now be much shorter exercises instead of the comprehensive ones envisaged earlier, which are necessary for proper environmental decision-making. It appears that the Bichom and Lohit studies are more likely to be used to create a justification for the large scale hydropower development already planned than protect the ecological integrity of these river basins. One of the two key outcomes proposed for the studies - to provide sustainable and optimal ways of hydropower development - is a clear indication that the environmental objectives are of secondary importance."
The silver lining to this is that the second key outcome specified by the TOR is to "assess requirement of environmental flow during lean season with actual flow, depth and velocity at different level". It is significant that the Committee has recognised the importance of environmental flows, the flows necessary to maintain the ecological existence of the river, an issue that is increasingly being acknowledged as critical to sound river basin planning. One has to wait and see if the studies would have the independence to recommend preclusion or modifications to some of the hydropower projects if this is found necessary to maintain environmental flows, and if so, whether such recommendations could be implemented.
While there are several other important issues with the basin studies not discussed here, there is one that is essential to point out. The TORs for the basin studies lay out in detail many parameters that need to be studied, field data that needs to be collected, but fail to require that the local communities be consulted and involved in the process. This is a major shortcoming, and an indicator that the studies are reinforcing the technocratic approach instead of a participatory one that is the essence of environmental decision-making.
Conclusion
The basin studies for Bichom and Lohit are examples of a good initiative gone awry. The Committee's recognition of the need for basin studies is a welcome step. It is clear that this is an acknowledgement of issues of cumulative impacts and carrying capacity that activists, researchers, academics, dam affected people and others have been consistently raising for the last many years. At the same time, it does not go to the logical conclusion and hence has become self-defeating.
What the Committee needs to do is to re-define the TORs for the studies allowing them the two years that the committee itself feels are necessary, and redesigning them to require meaningful participation of local communities and civil society. Meanwhile it should put the projects in the basin on hold, and make them conditional to the findings of the study. If this is done, it will be a significant step in the direction of environmentally sustainable and holistic approach to development. ⊕


ENVIRONMENT REGULATION River basin studies: A half-hearted attempt Impact assessment studies to understand the consequences of large dam projects have been de-linked from the actual implementation of the projects, thus diluting their value, writes Shripad Dharmadhikary.
Write the authorEnvironment regulationSend to a friendPrinter friendly version 16 June 2009 - The Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) on River Valley and Hydroelectric Projects of the Ministry of Environment and Forests of the Government of India has recently approved the Terms of Reference for conducting basin level studies of the Bichom and Lohit river basins in Arunachal Pradesh. The EAC has been constituted under the EIA notification 2006 to examine projects that apply to the Ministry for environmental clearance.
According to the TOR, the basin studies envisage "providing optimum support for various natural processes and allowing sustainable activities undertaken by its inhabitants". The Bichom and Lohit basins are among the river basins in the Himalayas where massive plans for building large dams and developing hydropower are being rolled out. More than a hundred projects with installed capacities totalling to 54,000 MW are at various stages of planning and implementation just in the state of Arunachal itself.
Often, a large number of dams are planned on single rivers or in single basins. For example, in the Lohit basin, a cascade of six projects totalling to 7918 MW are being planned, all within a length of 86 kms.
The need for basin studies
Such cascade-type development or a number of dams in a single basin raise the critically important issue of cumulative impacts. Often, the impact of all projects taken together is much greater than the sum of impacts of individual projects. Unfortunately, cumulative impacts are hardly ever assessed, as individual projects are planned and evaluated separately. One of the strongest criticisms against the recent plans of dam building has been the complete lack of any assessment of the carrying capacity - what level of development, and in particular the number of dams a basin can sustain - and of the totality of impacts of the number of dams and projects in the basin.
Often, the impact of all projects taken together is much greater than the sum of impacts of individual projects. Unfortunately, cumulative impacts are hardly ever assessed, as individual projects are planned and evaluated separately.
High Court pulls up NEAAWhose expert is an expert? Indeed, when the impact assessment of even individual projects is patchy at best and often farcical, it would be too much to expect a proper cumulative impact assessment.
Against this background, the decision to undertake basin level studies in the Lohit and Bichom are welcome steps in the right direction. The TORs of the basin studies indicate that wide-ranging and extensive examination has been called for, as is necessary for any such study. The TORs call for "inventorisation and analysis of the existing resource base and its production, consumption and conservation levels, determination of regional ecological fragility/sensitivity based on geo-physical, biological, socio-economic and cultural attributes, review of existing and planned developments as per various developmental plans, and evaluation of impacts on various facets of environment due to existing and planned development."
The studies are to then assess the stress/load due to various activities and suggest environmental action plans that can involve preclusion or modification any activity and measures. Unfortunately, the good part ends with this. The way the studies have been structured ends up defeating the very purpose of carrying them out.
A self-defeating exercise
First and foremost, the basin studies have been effectively de-linked from the implementation of the projects as there is no requirement that the projects be conditional to the findings of the basin studies. Neither is there any explicit stay on the consideration and implementation of any of the projects pending the studies.
Logically, the basin studies should suggest what level of development, including hydropower projects, the basin can sustain. The projects should be planned based on this. However, the current planning and decision making turns this on its head. The numbers, locations, capacities, types and other details of the projects have already been decided. Many of these projects have already been allotted to (mostly) private developers who already have or would soon be approaching the Ministry for environmental clearance. In Bichom basin, the 600 MW Bichom (or Kameng) project is already under construction.
It is clear that the Expert Appraisal Committee understood this issue. The Minutes of its meeting dated 15 and 16 December 2008 record that "The committee noted that the study will be completed in two years and M/s WAPCOS has been entrusted with the job. In case, any project on this basin is submitted during this study period for environmental clearance, how the outcome of the study will help to take a decision could not be clarified." The obvious solution is to put on hold the projects till the studies are done. However, what the Committee decided is that "the report may be submitted within six months by reducing the TOR and the study should focus only on hydroelectric projects."
Thus, studies that would need about two years are to be done in six months (later this was extended to nine) with reduced TORs. How the outcome of such truncated studies would help rational environmental decision making is a question. It is clear that the environmental objectives have been sidelined with an eye to build as many dams as possible.
The TOR for the studies does state that they can recommend the "preclusion of any activity", which presumably means that they can call for any or some of the hydropower plants not to be built. In reality, such an outcome is highly unlikely, as is seen from the reluctance to explicitly put on hold the projects in the basin pending the results of the study. While the Committee has from time to time discussed with concern the possible impacts of large number of projects in a single basin, it has fallen shy of taking the right, but hard decision when actually dealing with the problem.
The TORs for the basin studies lay out in detail many parameters that need to be studied, field data that needs to be collected, but fail to require that the local communities be consulted and involved in the process.
High Court pulls up NEAAWhose expert is an expert? For example, the Lohit basin study was originally envisaged and put forward as a condition while granting clearance for pre-construction activities to the Upper and Lower Demwe projects in March 2008. But the Minutes of the EAC meeting of July 2008, while discussing the basin study note that "Environmental Clearance to Demwe Upper and Demwe Lower HE Project should not be linked up with the completion of basin study." These two projects add up to 3430 MW, a full 43 per cent of the total 7918 MW planned in the basin.
Further, considering that the studies are to be paid for by the project developers - in proportion to the size of the projects they have been allotted - the conflict of interest is clear.
An earlier such basin study - to determined the carrying capacity of the Teesta basin in Sikkim, initiated in 2001 - at least had a condition that no project will be considered for environmental clearance till the carrying study is completed. That study took over five years. However, the MoEF violated its own condition and accorded clearance to several projects even before the study was completed. On the other hand, based on the recommendations of the study, the MoEF has asked the Sikkim Government to drop five hydropower projects above Chungthang, and restrict the height of those below it. This shows that findings of such studies are likely to require significant rethinking of dam building plans in the river basins.
Neeraj Vagholikar, who is with the environmental organisation Kalpavriksh and has studied dam projects in the North-East since 2001 says about the Bichom and Lohit studies: "The reluctance to put on hold individual project clearances till comprehensive river basin studies are completed puts a question mark on the utility of the entire exercise. Moreover, the river basin studies will now be much shorter exercises instead of the comprehensive ones envisaged earlier, which are necessary for proper environmental decision-making. It appears that the Bichom and Lohit studies are more likely to be used to create a justification for the large scale hydropower development already planned than protect the ecological integrity of these river basins. One of the two key outcomes proposed for the studies - to provide sustainable and optimal ways of hydropower development - is a clear indication that the environmental objectives are of secondary importance."
The silver lining to this is that the second key outcome specified by the TOR is to "assess requirement of environmental flow during lean season with actual flow, depth and velocity at different level". It is significant that the Committee has recognised the importance of environmental flows, the flows necessary to maintain the ecological existence of the river, an issue that is increasingly being acknowledged as critical to sound river basin planning. One has to wait and see if the studies would have the independence to recommend preclusion or modifications to some of the hydropower projects if this is found necessary to maintain environmental flows, and if so, whether such recommendations could be implemented.
While there are several other important issues with the basin studies not discussed here, there is one that is essential to point out. The TORs for the basin studies lay out in detail many parameters that need to be studied, field data that needs to be collected, but fail to require that the local communities be consulted and involved in the process. This is a major shortcoming, and an indicator that the studies are reinforcing the technocratic approach instead of a participatory one that is the essence of environmental decision-making.
Conclusion
The basin studies for Bichom and Lohit are examples of a good initiative gone awry. The Committee's recognition of the need for basin studies is a welcome step. It is clear that this is an acknowledgement of issues of cumulative impacts and carrying capacity that activists, researchers, academics, dam affected people and others have been consistently raising for the last many years. At the same time, it does not go to the logical conclusion and hence has become self-defeating.
What the Committee needs to do is to re-define the TORs for the studies allowing them the two years that the committee itself feels are necessary, and redesigning them to require meaningful participation of local communities and civil society. Meanwhile it should put the projects in the basin on hold, and make them conditional to the findings of the study. If this is done, it will be a significant step in the direction of environmentally sustainable and holistic approach to development. ⊕
Shripad Dharmadhikary
Sir Arthur Cotton, deified by generations of engineers and technocrats - with his statues found almost everywhere in Andhra Pradesh's coastal districts - supervised construction of what is called the Cotton Barrage (the Godavari anicut) which was completed in 1852. Back then, he viewed it as something greater than a mere engineering effort.
As Cotton saw it, the barrage was something a "Christian government' should do for its subjects ... The emphasis of all this is to give them (the 'natives') entirely new ideas of what a Christian Government is and thus to prepare them to receive Christianity." [Col. Arthur Cotton, Profits upon British Capital Expended on Public Works in India as Shown by the Results of the Godavery Delta Works, of Irrigation and Navigation, London, 1856]
The British are long gone from India, but the language, and the metaphors used in British colonial times continue to be used today. "The river must be restrained from wandering" wrote Cotton; "and all its branches must be provided with artificial embankments to protect the country from being flooded ... It is necessary, by artificial means, to keep the water constantly at a level which shall command the country, and also by a multitude of channels to lead it to every acre of land." And, "The system of works now in progress in the Delta of the Godavery are intended to embrace these four object, viz - to restrain the river; to preserve the land from floods; to supply it constantly with water; and to pervade the tract thoroughly with means of very cheap transit." [Col. Arthur Cotton, London, 1856]
Theirs was a philosophy of obstructing ('taming') what we today call ecological (natural) flows, and also of economic exploitation to maximize profits. And constant irrigation was seen as the means to generate revenue, even if it changed the traditional cropping patterns and methods of irrigation. When the cultivable land was left to 'breathe' at timed intervals, it bothered the British no end. "The number of ploughs lying idle every khureef season (2,000) would cultivate about 8000 acres of rice land, assuming that people work no harder than they now do ..." if irrigation access was provided. [Glasfurd, 1868] "It is necessary to keep the water constantly at a level which shall command the country and also by a multitude of channels to lend it to every acre of land." [Col Arthur Cotton, 1856] Cotton's statistics post-anicut, in the Godavari Districts, proved the benefits of these works in economic terms to the Empire. "The revenue of the Delta including that part that is in Masulipatnam, has increased about 60,000 Pounds ... (and) the amount of money re-circulated in the district had increased to 100,000 Pounds, above the average in years preceding the works; the internal traffic is now estimated at 180,000 tons carried thirty miles ..." [Col Arthur Cotton, 1856]. For his part, Cotton foresaw a larger role for private enterprise on the Godavari in the immediate future, and was disappointed that the Government in Britain was not taking as much initiative in this as was needed.
The empire flows again
More than a hundred years later, not only in his legacy of exploiting the river alive in the form of numerous projects that are ongoing, even his unfulfilled dreams of adding private exploitation to publicly-funded ones are close at hand. Commercial tourist traffic, based on the navigation idea that Cotton so religiously defended, to begin with, has already established itself.
Within a month of the Congress government being re-elected in Andhra Pradesh, its Major Irrigation Minister has announced that the Government seeks "national" (project) status for five irrigation projects related to Godavari waters. These include the Polavaram dam (top on the list of priorities), the Dummugudem tail pond, and three other projects at Pranahita-Chevella, Sujala Sravanthi and Sripada Sagar.
Signalling the urgency, he informed that Rs.18,000 crores have been allocated for these, of which Rs.4000 crores would be spent to clear pending bills for these projects. Surprisingly, the enthusiasm for these projects was not evident before the elections. Indeed, neither the Polavaram dam nor Godavari waters in general were part of the electoral discourse, except for the seemingly sudden shift in the Congress' campaign strategy in the last lap of campaigning in coastal Andhra districts - where the party warned voters about possible lack of access to the Godavari waters if Telangana state was allowed to become a reality. 'Utilisation of the Godavari waters' as a slogan was not invoked very much this time, to the extent it was in the 2004 elections. Water resources had a far greater share in electoral debates in 2004 than in 2009. In a conversation at the time of the elections, the former engineer K Vidayasagara Rao said, "Nobody is bothered about water issues. TRS was never against water being given to farmers, nor against Polavaram per se, but only against it in its present design and form. We have been highlighting the need for several small structures - not a big dam - to minimise the extent of displacement."
Even the opportunity for such nuance (TRS has also called for a fortification study of Polavaram, and independent reviews of the projects) may now have passed. Now that TRS has been defeated and the Left has been routed, and even the few remaining voices of opposition within the Assembly have been silenced, the implications on the spate of irrigation projects lined up in the State are worrisome. Several legal violations and socio-economic dimensions of these pending projects (not to mention the long-term environmental impact of restraining natural flows to the sea) have been discussed outside the Assembly. But with the Congress achieving a comfortable majority in the house of the people, these will no longer be part of the Assembly debates. Nor are other parties showing much interest in water issues.
The second coming of the Congress government in the State thus has opened the doors for aggressive consolidation of a form of privatisation and total control of Godavari waters we have not seen before. Sir Arthur Cotton's legacy is likely to continue without critical examination despite concerns about environmental flows, displacement, and exploitation of nature and climate change across the globe at several platforms. Until the idea of exploiting for profit continues, these concerns will remain unaddressed. ⊕
courtsey.R.uma maheshari

The impact of global warming in Asia

The Asian region spans polar, temperate, and tropical climates and is home to over 3 billion people. As the climate warms, many mountain glaciers may disappear, permafrost will thaw, and the northern forests are likely to shift further north. Rapid population growth and development in countries like China and India will put additional pressures on natural ecosystems and will lead to a rapid rise in the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere unless steps are taken to curtail emissions.
Fingerprints
1. Llasa, Tibet -- Warmest June on record, 1998. Temperatures hovered above 77?F for 23 days.
59. Garhwal Himalayas, India -- Glacial retreat at record pace. The Dokriani Barnak Glacier retreated 66 ft (20.1 m) in 1998 despite a severe winter. The Gangorti Glacier is retreating 98 ft (30 m) per year. At this rate scientists predict the loss of all central and eastern Himalayan glaciers by 2035.
62. Tien Shan Mountains, China -- Glacial ice reduced by one quarter in the past 40 years.
90. Southern India - Heat wave, May 2002. In the state of Andhra Pradesh temperatures rose to 120?F, resulting in the highest one-week death toll on record. This heat wave came in the context of a long-term warming trend in Asia in general. India, including southern India, has experienced a warming trend at a rate of 1?F (0.6?C) per century.
91. Nepal - High rate of temperature rise. Since the mid-1970s the average air temperature measured at 49 stations has risen by 1.8?F (1?C), with high elevation sites warming the most. This is twice as fast as the 1?F (0.6?C) average warming for the mid-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere (24 to 40?N) over the same time period, and illustrates the high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change.
93. Taiwan - Average temperature increase. The average temperature for the island has risen 1.8-2.5?F (1-1.4?C) in the last 100 years. The average temperature for 2000 was the warmest on record.
94. Afghanistan - 2001 - Warmest winter on record. Arid Central Asia, which includes Afghanistan, experienced a warming of 0.8-3.6?F (1-2?C) during the 20th century.
95. Tibet - Warmest decade in 1,000 years. Ice core records from the Dasuopu Glacier indicate that the last decade and last 50 years have been the warmest in 1,000 years. Meteorological records for the Tibetan Plateau show that annual temperatures increased 0.4?F (0.16?C) per decade and winter temperatures increased 0.6?F (0.32?C) per decade from 1955 to 1996.
96. Mongolia - Warmest century of the past millennium. A 1,738-year tree-ring record from remote alpine forests in the Tarvagatay Mountains indicates that 20th century temperatures in this region are the warmest of the last millennium. Tree growth during 1980-1999 was the highest of any 20-year period on record, and 8 of the 10 highest growth years occurred since 1950. The 20th century warming has been observed in tree-ring reconstructions of temperature from widespread regions of Eurasia, including sites in the Polar Urals, Yakutia, and the Taymir Peninsula, Russia. The average annual temperature in Mongolia has increased by about 1.3?F (0.7?C) over the past 50 years.
119. Chokoria Sundarbans, Bangladesh - Flooded mangroves. Rising ocean levels have flooded about 18,500 acres (7,500 hectares) of mangrove forest during the past three decades. Global sea-level rise is aggravated by substantial deltaic subsidence in the area with rates as high as 5.5 mm/year.
120. China - Rising waters and temperature. The average rate of sea-level rise was 0.09 +/- 0.04 inches (2.3 +/- 0.9 mm) per year over the last 30 years. Global sea-level rise was aggravated locally by subsidence of up to 2 inches (5 cm) per year for some regions due to earthquakes and groundwater withdrawal. Also, ocean temperatures off the China coast have risen in the last 100 years, especially since the 1960s.
126. Bhutan - Melting glaciers swelling lakes. As Himalayan glaciers melt glacial lakes are swelling and in danger of catastrophic flooding. Average glacial retreat in Bhutan is 100-130 feet (30-40 m) per year. Temperatures in the high Himalayas have risen 1.8?F (1?C) since the mid 1970s.
127. India - Himalayan glaciers retreating. Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at an average rate of 50 feet (15 m) per year, consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the Baspa glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter.
130. Mt. Everest - Retreating glacier.The Khumbu Glacier, popular climbing route to the summit of Mt. Everest, has retreated over 3 miles (5 km) since 1953. The Himalayan region overall has warmed by about 1.8?F (1?C) since the 1970s.
131. Kyrgyzstan - Disappearing glaciers. During 1959-1988, 1,081 glaciers in the Pamir-Altai disappeared. Temperatures in the mountains of Kyrgyztan have increased by 0.9-2.7? F (0.5-1.5?C) since the 1950s.
142. Siberia - Melting permafrost. Large expanses of tundra permafrost are melting. In some regions the rate of thawing of the upper ground is nearly 8 inches (20 cm) per year. Thawing permafrost has already damaged 300 buildings in the cities of Norilsk and Yakutsk. In Yakutsk, the average temperature of the permanently frozen ground has warmed by 2.7 ?F (1.5?C) during the past 30 years.
Harbingers
18. Indonesia -- Malaria spreads to high elevations. Malaria was detected for the first time as high as 6,900 feet (2103 m) in the highlands of Irian Jaya in 1997.
50. Philippines -- Coral reef bleaching.
51. Indian Ocean -- Coral reef bleaching (inclues Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia).
52. Persian Gulf -- Coral reef bleaching.
77. Korea -- Heavy rains and flooding. Severe flooding struck during July and August, 1998, with daily rainfall totals exceeding 10 inches (25.4 cm).
87. Indonesia -- Burning rainforest, 1998. Fires burned up to 2 million acres (809,371 hectares) of land, including almost 250,000 acres (101,172 hectares) of primary forest and parts of the already severely reduced habitat of the Kalimantan orangutan.
88. Khabarovsk, Russia -- Wildfires threaten tiger habitat, 1998. Drought and high winds fueled fires that destroyed 3.7 million acres (1,497,337 hectares) of taiga and threatened two important nature reserves that are habitat for the only remaining Amur tigers.
103. Bangladesh - Link between stronger El Ni񯠥vents and cholera prevalence. Researchers found a robust relationship between progressively stronger El Ni񯠥vents and cholera prevalence, spanning a 70-year period from 1893-1940 and 1980-2001. There has been a marked intensification of the El Ni񯯓outhern Oscillation phenomenon since the 1980s, which is not fully explained by the known shifts in the Pacific basin temperature regime that began in the mid-1970s. Findings by Rodo et al. are consistent with model projections of El Ni񯠩ntensification under global warming conditions. The authors make a strong case for the climate-health link by providing evidence for biological sensitivity to climate, meteorological evidence of climate change, and evidence of epidemiological change with global warming. The study likely represents the first piece of evidence that warming trends over the last century are affecting human disease.
105. Lake Baikal, Russia - Shorter freezing period. Winter freezing is about 11 days later and spring ice breakup is about 5 days earlier compared to a century ago. Some regions of Siberia have warmed by as much as 2.5?F (1.4?C) in just 25 years.
147. Iran - Desiccated wetlands, 2001 Ninety percent of wetlands have dried up after 2 years of extreme drought. Much of South West Asia has experienced a prolonged three-year drought that is unusual in its magnitude. Out of 102 years of record, 1999, 2000, and 2001 rank as the fifth, third, and seventh driest on record. 1999-2000 was the driest winter on record.
148. Pakistan - Longest drought on record, 1999-2001. The prolonged three-year drought, which covers much of South West Asia, has affected 2.2 million people and 16 million livestock in Pakistan.
149. Tajikistan - Lowest rainfall in 75 years, 2001. 2001 marked the third consecutive year of drought, which has destroyed half the wheat crop.
150. Korea - Worst drought in 100 years of record, 2001. It coincided with an average annual temperature increase in Asia?s temperate region, which includes Korea, by more than 1.8?F (1?C) over the past century. The warming has been most pronounced since 1970.
155. China - Disappearing Lakes, 2001. More than half of the 4,000 lakes in the Qinghai province are disappearing due to drought. The severity of the impact is exacerbated by overpumping of aquifers. Annual average temperature in China has increased during the past century, with pronounced warming since 1980. Most of the warming has been in northern areas, including Qinghai Province, and in the winter

Global Warming 101: Solutions

Global warming may or may not be a problem. Man may or may not be driving it. Given the uncertainties, a significant amount of global regret may apply if we divert too much of our global wealth to solving what may be a non-existent or trivial problem, especially if that diversion mires billions in poverty. On the other hand, we may also regret not doing anything if man-made global warming does turn out to be a problem. It is therefore prudent to examine what steps we can take that would prove beneficial whether or not anthropogenic global warming turns out to be a problem. These steps can be termed “no regrets” policies.
What makes a No Regrets Global Warming Policy? A global warming policy can be termed “no regrets” as long as it:
Reduces the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, or
Mitigates, prevents or reduces a harm associated with global warming, or
Provides greater capacity for dealing with problems associated with global warming
Without imposing significant cost or diverting economic activity.
Top Five “No Regrets” Policies
1.) Eliminate all subsidies to fuel use.Subsidies to energy R&D cost taxpayers millions of dollars while producing minimal benefits. While these programs may be relatively small given the size of domestic energy markets, they serve little, if any, useful purpose while subsidizing large corporations at taxpayer expense. The potential threat of global warming, whether it is real or not, is simply one more reason to eliminate these subsidy programs. An international agreement aimed at ending energy subsidy with binding targets would be a significant victory for emissions reduction. Unlike Kyoto, which forces an energy starvation diet on its participants, such a treaty would be a move to combat energy obesity.
2.) Repeal the Federal Flood Insurance Program.Much of the concern over global warming’s potential for harm in the US relates to sea level rise and the flooding that will result. However, much of the investment in potentially vulnerable areas is a result of the Federal flood Insurance Program. This program encourages building in vulnerable areas by acting as a moral hazard: people take greater risks because the government has said it will help bear that risk. Reform would reduce the moral hazard connected with building on vulnerable land, transferring the risk from the taxpayer to the private sector, which is likely to take a more realistic view of the issue.
3.) Reform Air Traffic Control Systems.Greater demand for air travel means more flights, which means greater fuel use and increased emissions. Yet, the current government-operated system of air traffic control, based on a 1920s-era system of beacons, may hinder innovations that could reduce fuel use and emissions. As a general rule, the shorter the flight, the less fuel will be consumed. Yet neither airlines nor pilots have the freedom to choose the most direct and economical route. Giving pilots freedom to map their own course is an attractive and desirable change in the eyes of the industry, and the impact on the environment would be tremendous. As well as saving considerable amounts of greenhouse gas emissions, the policy will deliver significant benefits in terms of time and expense to the US economy. By obviating significant reductions in service levels associated with more routine applications of emissions reduction policy, it is to be preferred to that approach.
4.) Facilitate Electricity Competition.By rejecting the model of central regulation and allowing suppliers to meet their customers’ needs more exactly while relying on distributed generation, energy waste and the associated emissions will reduce considerably. This reduction in waste will prove economically beneficial even if emissions themselves do not cause problems.
5.) Reduce Regulatory Barriers to New Nuclear Build.There is no other technology than nuclear that is proven to be capable of providing emissions-free energy at the scale required to make significant reductions in carbon emissions. The problem is that thanks to anti-nuclear activism by environmentalists in the 1970s, it takes a very long time to build a nuclear plant. This pushes development and construction costs up to the level where it is not economically competitive with higher-emitting forms of electricity generation like coal and natural gas. According to the nuclear energy institute, it takes 10 years from concept to operation to build a nuclear plant, and only four of those are construction, the rest is permit application development (2 years) and decision-making by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (4 years).

Argentine glacier advances despite global warming

Argentina's Perito Moreno glacier is one of only a few ice fields worldwide that have withstood rising global temperatures. Nourished by Andean snowmelt, the glacier constantly grows even as it spawns icebergs the size of apartment buildings into a frigid lake, maintaining a nearly perfect equilibrium since measurements began more than a century ago. "We're not sure why this happens," said Andres Rivera, a glacialist with the Center for Scientific Studies in Valdivia, Chile. "But not all glaciers respond equally to climate change." Viewed at a safe distance on cruise boats or the wooden observation deck just beyond the glacier's leading edge, Perito Moreno's jagged surface radiates a brilliant white in the strong Patagonian sun. Submerged sections glow deep blue. And when the wind blows in a cloud cover, the 3-mile-wide (5 kilometer) glacier seems to glow from within as the surrounding mountains and water turn a meditative gray. Every few years, Perito Moreno expands enough to touch a point of land across Lake Argentina, cutting the nation's largest freshwater lake in half and forming an ice dam as it presses against the shore. The water on one side of the dam surges against the glacier, up to 200 feet (60 meters) above lake level, until it breaks the ice wall with a thunderous crash, drowning the applause of hundreds of tourists. "It's like a massive building falling all of the sudden," said park ranger Javier D'Angelo, who experienced the rupture in 2008 and 1998. The rupture is a reminder that while Perito Moreno appears to be a vast, 19-mile-long (30 kilometer) frozen river, it's a dynamic icescape that moves and cracks unexpectedly. "The glacier has a lot of life," said Luli Gavina, who leads mini-treks across the glacier's snow fields.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

India’s rich biodiversity is under threat from invasive species of foreign origin, both plant and animal.

BIODIVERSITY is the source of all ecological goods and services that constitute the source of living of all. India is not only gifted with geographical, climatic, cultural and social diversity but is also endowed enormously with biological diversity. The country is among the 12 mega gene centres of the world, and two of the 31 global hot spots of biodiversity (the North-eastern Himalayas and the Western Ghats) occur in this region. About 8 per cent of all the estimated species on the earth exist in India though it occupies only 2.4 per cent of the world’s land area. Among the existing biota, nearly 91,000 species of animals, 45,500 species of plants and 5,650 microbial species have already been documented in India’s 10 biogeographic regions. It is estimated that nearly 40 per cent of these are aliens, and 25 per cent of them have become invasive.
The diverse agricultural systems, employing both traditional and modern systems of cultivation, utilise thousands of locally adapted as well as bred crop varieties and nearly 140 native breeds of livestock. The country is recognised as one of the eight “Vavilovian Centres” of origin and diversity of crop plants, having more than 300 wild ancestors and close relatives of cultivated plants still growing and evolving under natural conditions. About 168 domesticated species of crops (including 25 major and minor crop species) have originated and/or developed diversity in this part of the world. Indigenous medical systems utilise nearly 6,500 native plants for both human and animal health care. India’s diverse preponderance of native tribal and ethnic groups has contributed significantly to the conservation and diversification of biodiversity.
In December 2000, the United Nations General Assembly adopted May 22 as the International Day for Biological Diversity (IDB), to commemorate the adoption of the text of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on that day in 1992, in Nairobi. Since 2001, the day is celebrated with a central theme. The theme for the IDB in 2009 was Biodiversity and Invasive Alien Species (IAS).
In India, the National Biodiversity Authority, established under the Biological Diversity Act, 2002, under the aegis of the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests, conducted programmes that emphasised the importance of biological biodiversity, organised outreach activities for schoolchildren, held seminars, published posters and pamphlets and staged exhibits and events designed to attract and educate the media.
Invasive alien species are species whose introduction and/or spread outside their natural habitats threatens biological diversity. They occur in all groups, including animals, plants, fungi, bacteria and viruses, and can affect all types of ecosystems. While a small percentage of organisms transported to new environments become invasive, the negative impact they have can be extensive and over time these additions become substantial. ARRIVE, SURVIVE, THRIVE
A species introduction is usually vectored by human transportation and trade. If a species’ new habitat is similar enough to its native range, it may survive and reproduce. However, it must first subsist at low population densities, when it may be difficult for it to find mates to reproduce. For a species to become invasive, it must successfully out-compete native organisms, spread through its new environment, increase in population and harm ecosystems in its introduced range. To summarise, for an alien species to become invasive, it must arrive, survive and thrive.
On April 27, 2009, news about the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico caught the attention of people all over the world. In spite of unprecedented measures to check its spread, the swine flu virus managed to sneak into more than 30 countries, including India, and within weeks it had infected nearly 5,000 people all over the world. Mikania (here, overrunning a banana plantation) was introduced in India during the Second World War to help soldiers camouflage themselves.
The swine flu has, once again, reminded us about our vulnerability to invasive aliens, which do not respect geographical boundaries. Sometimes they manifest themselves as bird flu and at other times as foot-and-mouth disease and mad cow disease and lead to massive destruction of livestock populations all over the world. But human beings, birds and cattle are not the only targets of invasive alien species. Over the years, the biggest casualty of such species has been our rich biodiversity, and they have emerged as one of the greatest threats to food security. Be it mountains, plains, deserts, rivers or seas, there is no ecosystem in the country that does not reel under the impact of invasive aliens.
The common characteristics of IAS include rapid reproduction and growth, high dispersal ability, phenotypic plasticity (ability to adapt physiologically to new conditions), and the ability to survive on various food types and in a wide range of environmental conditions. A good predictor of invasiveness is whether a species has successfully invaded elsewhere.
Increasing travel, trade and tourism, associated with globalisation and expansion of the human population, have facilitated both intentional and unintentional movement of species beyond natural biogeographical barriers, and many of these alien species have become invasive. IAS is considered to be one of the main direct drivers of biodiversity loss at the global level. These species can be expected to cause substantial environmental and economic damage, and their negative effects are exacerbated by climate change, pollution, habitat loss and human-induced disturbance. Increasing domination by a few invasive species increases global homogenisation of biodiversity, reducing local diversity and distinctiveness. MIKANIA (HERE, FULLY spread out on a banyan tree in Tamil Nadu) is now a major threat in many parts of the country. It grows 8 to 9 cm a day and muzzles small plants and chokes larger trees.
Invasive alien species can directly affect human health. Infectious diseases are often traced to IAS imported by travellers or vectored by exotic species of birds, rodents and insects. IAS also have indirect health effects on humans as a result of the use of pesticides and herbicides, which pollute water and soil.
They may look harmless but are dangerous, mainly causing flu, allergies, respiratory disorders and even infertility among humans and animals. In economic terms, the cost of IAS is significant. The total annual cost, including losses to crops, pastures and forests, and in terms of environmental damage and control costs, has been conservatively estimated to be hundreds of billions of dollars, possibly more than one trillion dollars. STEM RUST ATTACK
Manifesting themselves as microorganisms, plants, animals and fungi, these invasive alien species are notorious for their rapid reproduction and high dispersal ability. Recently, a new strain of the stem rust virus, called Ug99, has been invading wheat, leading to the loss of almost the entire crop, in many African countries including Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania. It has been spotted in Iran and is believed to be heading towards countries in South Asia. It may spell doom for the food security of the region because all wheat varieties cultivated in Asia are susceptible to Ug99. As one of the megadiversity countries in the world, India is particularly vulnerable to invasions by alien species.
The invasive alien often proves difficult to control. Through their uncontrolled and rapid growth, they out-compete more useful native species and leave them on the brink of extinction. Lantana is now considered one of the 10 notorious weeds in the world. A native of Central and South America, lantana came to India as an ornamental plant in 1807, when the British introduced it into the Calcutta Botanical Garden. Since then it has occupied over one lakh hectares of land in the country and proved to be a bane of0 cash crops such as coffee, cotton, oil palm and coconut. However, it is the hilly regions of the country that have largely borne the brunt of the attack. THE WATER HYACINTH, which is believed to have originated in the Amazon basin, has become a big nuisance in ponds, lakes and lagoons in the country. Here, in the Hebbal lake in Bangalore.
The parthenium may not be as attractive as the lantana, but there is hardly any invasive alien species in the world that can match its dispersal ability and devastation capacity. Believed to have entered the country in the 1950s along with the supply of P.L. 480 (Public Law 480 food aid programme) wheat from the United States, parthenium now occupies 50 lakh hectares in the country and has become a major health hazard for people and animals. Other than occupying wasteland, roadsides, and railway tracks, it has colonised public parks, residential colonies and orchards.
Other prominent ones include mikania (mile a minute), which was introduced in India during the Second World War to help soldiers camouflage themselves. Now a major threat in many parts of the country, it grows 8 to 9 cm a day and muzzles small plants and chokes larger trees such as coconut and oil palm.
Eupatorium was introduced as an ornamental plant in the Calcutta Botanical Garden in the 1840s. Since then it has spread throughout South-East Asia. Its capacity for regeneration and prolific seed production enables it to form dense tangled bushes, which depress the growth and yield of crops such as rubber, cardamom, coffee, tea and mango.NILE TILAPIA OR Oreochromis niloticus. Tilapia, a freshwater fish, was introduced into the pond ecosystem of India in 1952, and it has now been declared as invasive in 90 countries.
India suffers an annual loss of Rs.20,000 crore in terms of agriculture produce owing to weed infestation. The most prominent among the weeds is Phalaris minor. It affects the wheat crop in particular and has curtailed yield by five million tonnes a year.
Prosopis juliflora was introduced in India in the last century and was thought to be a very promising species for the afforestation of dry and degraded land. But over the years, it has emerged as a noxious invader that can grow in diverse ecosystems, right from coastal areas to desert regions. Its rapid growth and dense formation enable it to wipe out other plant species in its surroundings.
Except for mikania, so far the control and eradication measures, through manual extraction, chemical spraying and biological means, have had very little impact on the growth of these invasive aliens. The release of Mexican beetles against parthenium has shown promising results, but given the fact that it occupies nearly five million hectares the use of beetles does not seem to be a feasible optionALONG THE ROAD, a mikania invasion on palms.
Our fresh and marine water resources, including the corals, also face a grave threat from invasive alien species. The water hyacinth is believed to have originated in the Amazon basin, but it has become a big nuisance in India’s ponds, lakes and lagoons.
Tilapia, a freshwater fish, was first introduced into the pond ecosystem of India in 1952, and it has now been declared as invasive in 90 countries around the world. It multiplies at an extremely rapid pace, survives in all kinds of waters and eats everything, to the extent that native species are starved to death.
The challenge now is to find ways to manage the invasive aliens that are firmly entrenched in the country and, at the same time, take every possible step to prevent the entry of new aliens that may become invasive. The future of India hinges on the protection of its biodiversity. This task cannot be the responsibility of the government alone. We have to be partners in protecting this common heritage. THERE IS HARDLY an invasive alien species in the world that can match the parthenium weed's dispersal ability and capacity to destroy. Believed to have entered the country in the 1950s along with the supply of P.L. 480 wheat from the United States, parthenium now occupies 50 lakh hectares in the country and has become a major health hazard for people and animals.
Invasive alien species are a global issue and dealing with this requires international cooperation and action. Preventing the international movement of IAS and their rapid detection on the borders are less costly than their control and eradication. Preventing the entry of IAS is carried out through inspections of international shipments, customs checks and quarantine regulations.
This requires collaboration among governments, economic sectors and non-governmental and international organisations. There are many international and regional binding agreements and voluntary guidelines that include regulations on IAS. PROSOPIS JULIFLORA WAS introduced in India in the last century and was thought to be a very promising species for the afforestation of dry and degraded land. But over the years, it has emerged as a noxious invader that can grow in diverse ecosystems, right from coastal areas to desert regions. Its rapid growth and dense formation enable it to wipe out other plant species in its surroundings.
The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the CBD has recognised that there is an urgent need to address the impact of IAS, and at its fourth meeting it established IAS as a cross-cutting issue. The decision of the COP 6 meeting included the adoption of the Guiding Principles for the Prevention, Introduction and Mitigation of Impacts of Alien Species that Threaten Ecosystems, Habitats or Species. This target was subsequently endorsed by the World Summit on Sustainable Development and the U.N. General Assembly and was incorporated as a new target under the Millennium Development Goals.•

Climate change to displace millions: UN report

Climate change could uproot millions in the future causing displacement and migration, warns a new UN-supported report.The report said that displacement will get worse 'unless vulnerable populations, especially the poorest, are assisted in building climate-resilient livelihoods.'
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Researchers interviewed more than 2,000 migrants in various parts of the world and mapped climate change in the Ganges, Nile and Mekong deltas, Tuvalu and the Maldives, among other areas.The publication supported by the UN University (UNU), UNHCR, the World Bank, Columbia University and the NGO CARE was launched at the UN climate change conference under way in Bonn, Germany.'In coming decades, climate change will motivate or force millions of people to leave their homes in search of viable livelihoods and safety,' it said.'Unless aggressive measures are taken to halt global warming, the consequences for human migration and displacement could reach a scope and scale that vastly exceed anything that has occurred before,' it warned.Koko Warner of UNU's Institute for Environment and Human Security told UN Radio that the majority of the migrants polled said that the environment has affected their decision on where and how to live.