Saturday, June 20, 2009

Here is the weather for 2080: floods, droughts and heatwaves

And now for the weather. The 2020s are looking warm and dry, with occasional heavy winter showers. The 2050s should be sunny and warm, with scattered deaths due to heatwaves across London and the south-east. And looking ahead to the 2080s, temperatures could reach 41C, so be sure to pack the suncream for your picnic. And watch out for those great white sharks!
Scientists today issued the most detailed assessment yet of how global warming will unfold across Britain. In a range of possible scenarios published by the government, the experts painted a picture of a very different UK, with soaring summertime temperatures and dwindling rainfall.
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David Adam: 'It will tell you the climate in your garden in 2080' Link to this audio
Announcing the results, Hilary Benn, environment secretary, said global warming will affect "every aspect of our daily lives". The scientists say summer rainfall in south-east England could decrease by a fifth by the 2050s. Average mean temperatures are likely to rise by more than 2C across the UK by 2040s. If carbon emissions continue to rise, there is a 10% chance that temperatures in the southeast could rise by 8C or more by the 2080s.
The results are aimed at industries and organisations that need to make long-term investment decisions that could be influenced by a changing climate. They come as scientists urge politicians to focus on adapting to inevitable climate change as well as on efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Benn said: "There is no doubt about it, climate change is the biggest challenge facing the world today. It is already happening, the hottest ten years on record globally have all been since 1990. This landmark scientific evidence shows not only that we need to tackle the causes of climate change, but also that we must deal with the consequences."
The new predictions follow a similar exercise in 2002, that produced maps of likely changes across Britain for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. They showed the UK faced drier, warmer summers and wetter, milder winters. Experts say the new results are more powerful, because they present the relative probabilities of a range of possible outcomes. They also cover three different possible futures, in which carbon emissions are low, medium or high. Benn said the world was currently heading along the medium scenario, but that there was a risk that emissions could increase towards the high pathway.
Under the high emissions scenario, the results suggest the hottest summer days could be 12C warmer than today, with peak summer temperatures in London regularly topping 40C.
To produce the new predictions, the scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre ran 300 versions of their sophisticated climate computer model, and pooled the results to see which outcomes were most likely. The results cannot be used to predict specific weather on future dates, but they indicate broad trends.
Andy Brown, climate change and environmental performance manager with Anglian Water, said the results would help the company plan key infrastructure such as reservoirs. "The increased resolution and probabilities will help to give us more focus." The breakdown into small regions, just 25km across, will help too. "Rainfall can be very localised so it will help us make plans to deal with events."
Paul Bettison, chair of the environment board at the Local Government Association: "We need to start encouraging people to plan for the future. Schools in other countries more used to blistering hot summers are built with large amounts of shade. Our teachers chase people out of shady classrooms to enjoy the sunshine."
Better projections of climate in the 2050s and even the 2080s can help local authorities to force developers to adapt their designs, he says. And existing regulations only insist on a minimum temperature inside buildings such as schools, that is likely to change to include maximum temperature too. "When the original act was written in the 1960s nobody had heard of climate change," he said. "Simply building in dirty great air conditioning units is not the answer."
Paul Williams, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, said: "Sceptics will no doubt question how scientists can confidently predict the climate of 2080, when we cannot even forecast next week's weather with any skill. But climate prediction and weather forecasting are completely different problems. We can say with confidence that July is always warmer than January, because more sunlight is received. Similarly, we can say with confidence that the 2080s will be warmer than the 2000s, because of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases."
The Department of Energy and Climate Change said the publication of the new climate predictions marked the first step towards a "five point plan" to tackle climate change. Later this month, Ed Miliband, energy and climate secretary, will publish the government's blueprint for a new global climate deal, which it hopes will be agreed at key UN talks in Copenhagen in December. Next month, ministers will publish a new national strategy for climate and energy, to set out policies to meet the government's domestic carbon reduction targets.
The climate predictions were welcomed by the University of Oxford's Sir David King, the former chief scientific advisor. "Now the question is whether or not the British public and their councillors, planners, civil servants and politicians have the appetite to provide sufficient funding to implement long-range schemes of adaptation across the regions covered by the report."
Green campaigners called for stronger action on emissions to avoid the damaging impacts the UK will face .
Andy Atkins, Friends of the Earth executive director, said: "This valuable new research highlights the damaging impact that climate change will have around the UK . The UK government must show real leadership by example ahead of crucial climate negotiations in Copenhagen."
Chris Smith, chairman of the Environment Agency said: "These new projections remind us starkly of the choices we face in ensuring a sustainable future for our fragile planet. A failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a battle for survival for mankind and many other species across the globe by the end of this century."

New York 'carbon counter' sign shows greenhouse gases in real timeBuzz up!

New Yorkers leaving Penn station and the tenor Andrea Bocelli's concert at Madison Square Garden stadium were confronted with an unusual advert yesterday – a huge sign showing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
Updated in real time, using projections from monthly measurements of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Carbon Counter is designed to get everyone to reduce their emissions.
Kevin Parker, the global head of Deutsche Bank's asset management division, which put up the 21-metre sign, said: "Carbon in the atmosphere has reached an 800,000-year high. We can't see greenhouse gases, so it is easy to forget that they are accumulating rapidly."
Yesterday the counter, which uses 40,960 low-energy LEDs and carbon-offsets its electricity usage, gave a figure of 3.64tn tonnes.
At current rates, the counter's figures are expected to rise by 2bn tonnes a month. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere stands at about 387 parts per million (ppm), up by more than a third on pre-industrial revolution levels of about 280ppm.
Ronald Prinn, professor of atmospheric science at MIT, explained the data behind the sign: "The number on the counter is based on global measurements. It shows the total estimated tonnage of greenhouse gases expressed as their equivalent amounts of carbon dioxide, with seasonal and other natural cyclical variations removed to more clearly reveal the underlying long-term trends driven by human and other activity."

Europe to hunt more whales than Japan, figures show

Europe plans to hunt more whales than Japan for the first time in many years, dividing EU countries and dismaying conservationists who say that whaling is escalating in response to the worldwide recession.
Figures seen by the Guardian before a meeting of more than 80 countries next week, show that Norway, Denmark and Iceland propose to hunt 1,478 whales compared to Japan's 1,280 in 2009. This would be an increase of nearly 20% by Europe on last year.
"Europe likes to point the finger at Japan as a rogue whaling nation but Europeans are killing whales in increasing numbers in their own waters. Europe has become whale enemy number one", said Kate O'Connell, campaigner for the Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society (WDCS).
Iceland – which today began its 2009 hunt by killing the first two of 150 fin whales – and Norway, are the only two countries to hunt whales commercially. This breaches a 23-year-old worldwide moratorium introduced to preserve critically endangered whale populations.
This year, Norway proposes to kill 885 minke whales, and Iceland 350 whales in total. Denmark will apply to hunt 245 on behalf of indigenous Inuit hunters in its semi-autonomous territory Greenland. Most of the whale meat caught in European waters will be sold to Japan.
Japan, which practises thinly disguised commercial whaling under the guise of scientific research, plans to kill 850 whales in Antarctic waters this season, as well as more than 400 in the Pacific. It wants to kill fewer whales than last year but is seeking permission to hunt more in its coastal waters.
Britain today increased diplomatic pressure on Iceland to stop its whaling, warning that it intended to make it a condition of the country's expected application to join the EU that it abandon commercial whaling. Fisheries minister Huw Irranca-Davies said: "If Iceland were to join Europe then Britain would expect they would be obliged to end their whaling operation. We would urge renegotiation."
A spokesman for the new Iceland government said: "The government has said it will honour this year's quota but will reassess the whaling situation by the end of the year. A study is being done by the economic institute of the University of Iceland. Whaling will obviously be part of the talks when Iceland negotiates its entry to the EU."
An independent economic report commissioned by conservation groups WWF and WDCS released today in advance of the International whaling commission (IWC) summit in Madeira, concludes that whaling is no longer economically viable.
Japan, it claimed, has spent $164m (£100m) backing its whaling industry since 1988, and Norwegian subsidies equal almost half of the gross value of all whale-meat landings. Sales of whale meat, blubber, and other whale products in Japan "have made financial losses for most of the last 20 years", it said.
The research says that killing more whales will only hurt the growing whale-watching industry, and damage the international image of Norway and Japan. "Norway and Japan are hurting tourism, a potential growth industry in both countries in order to spend millions of dollars obtaining whale meat, the sale of which makes no profit. How much longer are they going to keep wasting their taxpayer's money?" said a spokeswoman for WWF.
Earlier this year more than 115,000 people pledged to visit Iceland as soon as the government announced an end to whaling.
The number of pro- and anti-whaling countries are finely balanced within the IWC, with both sides continuing to recruit as many countries as possible to boost their positions. Japan in the past has offered many small countries development aid to vote with them, but Britain and other countries have also leaned on eastern European countries to join.
Australia and New Zealand said this week that they would mount a non-lethal whale research expedition to the Antarctic, as a direct challenge to Japan's research programme, which maintains it must kill whales to study them. The six-week expedition aims to prove that whales needn't be killed for study, the two governments said in a joint statement.
The IWC meeting is being held amidst are fears that environment groups are stepping up campaigns to stop whaling. A previously unknown Norwegian group called Agenda 21 attacked a whaling ship in April, bringing to six the number of whaling boats sabotaged in Norway.
Sea Shepherd, a radical California-based group which has admitted sabotaging whalers in Iceland and elsewhere, has also threatened to return to Europe.
Today , the Icelandic whaling ship Hvalur 9 returned to the Hvalfjord whaling station to process its first catch.
FLASHPOINTS
GREENLAND: The semi-autonomous Danish territory wants to hunt 50 endangered fin whales for indigenous consumption, but most of the meat will be sold to Japan
RUSSIA: Oil companies on the Sakhalin peninsular in the far east of Russia threaten feeding grounds of critically endangered whales
NORWAY: The Lofoten islands are the centre of Norwegian whaling, but also target of anti-whaling groups
ANTARCTICA: The entire sea around Antarctica has been declared a whale sanctuary but Japan regularly hunts whales there
ICELAND: Government may be forced to stop whaling if it wants to joins EU

Protecting Your Job While Coping With a Chronic Illness

IT started with an odd sensation in her right hand and a feeling of exhaustion so profound she could hardly get through an hoAfter numerous tests and countless doctors’ visits, Natasha Frechette, then 27, learned she had multiple sclerosis, a disease that attacks the central nervous system and can cause numbness, blindness and eventual paralysis.
In addition to grappling with the diagnosis, Ms. Frechette was concerned about keeping her job as a data manager for a small research organization in Brooklyn Park, Minn. “I didn’t want to have to depend on someone to take care of me,” she said. "But I know that I could wake up tomorrow and not be able to walk."
Workers with chronic illnesses face chronic uncertainty, forced to worry not only about their health but about their jobs as well. The protections afforded chronically ill workers in the United States are thin and somewhat vague. To protect their health and their jobs, workers must navigate employers’ policies, which may include short- and long-term disability plans, as well as a patchwork of federal laws and regulations.
A recent study by the Center for Economics and Policy Research, a Washington research organization, found that among 22 rich nations, the United States was the only one that did not guarantee workers paid time off for illness.
Most other countries provide their workers not only with paid sick days, but also time off for cancer treatments, the study found. German citizens, for example, are allowed five sick days and 44 days for cancer treatment, if needed, in addition to vacation days.
Most employers in the United States allow employees to take days off for minor ailments, like the flu or outpatient operations, without docking their pay. And 41 percent offer employees days off — nine, on average — for illness or other reasons, in addition to vacation days, according to a 2007 survey by Mercer, a benefits consulting business based in New York.
But when an employee has a serious or chronic illness, like diabetes, major depression or lupus, the rules about time off become murky.
Two laws offer workers some relief. The Family and Medical Leave Act allows employees to take up to 12 weeks off each year for medical or family emergencies — but without pay. And the Americans With Disabilities Act requires employers to make reasonable adjustments for disabled workers, often in the form of additional time off.
Ms. Frechette explained her condition to her supervisor and said she would need time off for physical and occupational therapy. Her boss readily agreed, and Ms. Frechette, who plans to marry this fall, continues to work full time.
“I’m careful,” she said. "I don’t want my disease to be seen as a cop-out.”
If you are dealing with an chronic illness, here are some strategies to help you maintain your job.
INFORM YOUR EMPLOYER If you have a condition that could interfere with your performance, tell your boss. “People are often afraid of being discriminated against,” said Rosalind Joffe, a career coach who counsels people with chronic illnesses. “I had one client who didn’t disclose his illness to anyone. His odd behavior led his boss to conclude he was a drug abuser.”
Be honest. Explain what your condition is and how it might affect your work. “Don’t be ashamed,” Ms. Frechette said.
A supervisor who understands what is wrong is less likely to make false assumptions about what you can and cannot do. “Be clear about your value and what you can deliver,” Ms. Joffe said. “If you’re a valued employee, your boss will work with you.”
If you feel you are being unfairly treated, speak with your supervisor. If that doesn’t work, go to the human resources department.
ASK FOR ADJUSTMENTS If your illness meets the definition of a disability, your employer is required to make reasonable accommodations to your job or work environment, according to the Americans With Disabilities Act.
What is a disability? “It’s a physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more major life activities,” said Chris Kuczynski, director of the division that deals with the disability act at the federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.
Although your illness may be episodic or controlled by medications, it is still a disability, according to a recent amendment to the law.
Your employer does not have to provide an accommodation if it would impose significant difficulty or expense. Asking for a car and driver to take you to and from work would probably not be reasonable, Mr. Kuczynski said. But taking time off for chemotherapy treatments certainly would.
According to the Society for Human Resource Managers, the top five accommodations for the disability act provided by employers in 2005 (the last year for which data are available) were parking or transportation modifications, making existing facilities accessible, offering new equipment to workers, restructuring jobs and modifying the work environment.
If you are not sure what type of accommodations you are entitled to or how to ask for them, contact the Job Accommodation Network (800-526-7234), a service provided by the federal Department of Labor. In general, the network recommends that you put your request to your employer in writing. If you work in a small, informal setting, that may not be necessary.
KNOW THE TIME-OFF POLICIES You can learn about the on-the-books rules by going to your company’s intranet or speaking with its human resources department.
If you need to take a few weeks or months off for an operation, for example, or chemotherapy, research your company’s short- and long-term disability plans. Disability policies typically allow you to take a specific time off at reduced pay. According to Mercer, the consulting firm, 78 percent of employers offer short-term plans and 80 percent offer long-term disability plans.
You can also tap into your 12 weeks of family and medical leave at any time. You may take the time intermittently or all at once. You will not be paid, but your job will be secure.
EXPLORE ALTERNATIVES If the hours are too long or the work is too taxing to handle while you are ill, find out whether you could work part time or could even take a different job in your company.
If neither is feasible, explore new career possibilities. One of Ms. Joffe’s clients was a high-powered lawyer who had a serious heart condition. To reduce stress, he decided to give up litigation and become a teacher.
If you are worried about your finances or health insurance, be sure to check with the advocacy organization focused on your disease. The American Cancer Society, for instance, has a call center (800-227-2345) that helps people who don’t have health insurance or are on the verge of losing it.
If your illness finally prohibits you from working altogether, you may apply for Social Security disability insurance. The process is lengthy, and you must be able to prove that you cannot work at any job. The amount you are paid is based on your lifetime earnings — you can find the number on the annual statement you receive from the Social Security Administration.
Generally, payments are modest: the average in 2008 was $1,063 a month. But once you have received disability payments for two years, you automatically qualify for Medicare coverage. ur of work, let alone a full day.

Destroying Levees in Louisiana

In the 1960s, a group of businessmen bought 16,000 acres of swampy bottomland along the Ouachita River in northern Louisiana and built miles of levee around it. They bulldozed its oak and cypress trees and, when the land dried out, turned it into a soybean farm.Now two brothers who grew up nearby are undoing all that work. In what experts are calling the biggest levee-busting operation ever in North America, the brothers plan to return the muddy river to its ancient floodplain, coaxing back plants and animals that flourished there when President Thomas Jefferson first had the land surveyed in 1804.
The idea goes against the grain in Louisiana, where people have battled river flooding since colonial days. European settlers were often required to build levees to establish homesteading claims; in recent decades, landowners built levees to create farmland by the hundreds of thousands of acres. Hurricane Katrina brought a clamor for more and stronger levees to protect people and buildings farther south

Yet at the same time, there is a growing awareness that Louisiana’s levees have exacted a huge environmental cost. Inland, cypress forests and wetlands crucial for migrating waterfowl have vanished; in southern Louisiana, coastal marshes deprived of regular infusions of sediment-rich river water have yielded by the mile to an encroaching Gulf of Mexico. Some scientists have suggested opening levees south of New Orleans so the Mississippi River can flow normally into the swamps

Giant Carbon Clock Unveiled in Center of New York City

Deutsche Bank has erected a seven-story sign in the heart of New York City that ticks off the tons of carbon dioxide being emitted into the atmosphere — a public relations move designed to raise awareness of global warming.Designed by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and hanging outside Madison Square Garden, the giant counter shows that the amount of carbon dioxide in earth’s atmosphere is at 3.64 trillion metric tons, the highest level in 800,000 years. Number whirring on the counter show that CO2 is being added to the atmosphere at the rate of 800 tons per second.

Nissan to make electric cars in U.S

Nissan Motor Co plans to launch production of electric vehicles and their batteries in the United States to tap low-interest loans for green vehicles, the Nikkei business daily said.
The overall investment is estimated at 50 billion yen ($516.4 million) and may rise to 100 billion yen, it said.
Under the plan, the new electric-car assembly lines are to be built at a plant in Smyrna, Tennessee, where Nissan North America Inc is based, the paper said.