The US said today it would not demand that China commits to binding cuts in its greenhouse gas emissions, marking an important step towards agreement on a global treaty to fight climate change.
The move came at the end of the latest round of UN climate change talks involving 183 countries, which aim to produce a deal in Copenhagen in December.
Jonathan Pershing, head of the US delegation in Bonn, said developing countries – seeking to grow their economies and alleviate poverty – would instead be asked to commit to other actions. These include increasing energy efficiency standards and improving the take-up of renewable energy, but would not deliver specific reductions.
He said: "We're saying that the actions of developing countries should be binding, not the outcomes of those actions."
Only developed countries, including the US, would be expected to guarantee cuts. The pledge was included in a US blueprint for a climate change deal submitted to the Bonn meeting, which Pershing said was based on the need for rich countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050. The American plan, if approved, could replace the existing Kyoto protocol. The lack of any carbon targets for developing countries in the protocol was the reason the US never ratified it.
While such cuts were believed to be unrealistic in the new treaty, the first clear acceptance of that at the UN talks by the US is being seen as significant. EU officials said they were studying the US proposal.China and the US are the two biggest polluters in the world, making their positions on the deal critical.
In a separate submission to the meeting, China was among a group of developing countries that called on rich countries to cut emissions by 40% by 2020 on 1990 levels. According to the environmental group WWF, commitments made by developing countries so far add up only to about a 10% cut. Japan this week proposed an effective 8% cut in its emissions.
Observers see the 40% demand as unrealistic, suggesting the US move amounts to blinking first in the negotiations. But back-channel negotiations, revealed by the Guardian last month, showed the two countries are searching for a deal.
John Ashe, who chaired discussions at Bonn on how Kyoto targets could be extended, said many of the targets put forward could be revised as the Copenhagen deadline looms. "There is always an initial move and then a final move. I don't believe we're in the final stage yet," he said.
He said China should agree to take actions to control emissions that were measured and reported to the international community.
In Washington, Todd Stern, the state department's climate change envoy, said the US still expected China to move towards a cleaner economy. "We are expecting China to reduce their emissions very considerably compared to where they would otherwise be [with] a business as usual trajectory," he said.
At the end of the talks, the UN's top climate official said progress had been made. Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN framework convention on climate change, said: "A big achievement of this meeting is that governments have made it clearer what they want to see in the Copenhagen agreed outcome."
But green campaigners criticised the failure to resolve issues such as an overall target for 2020 emission reductions or concrete proposals on funding for poor countries to deal with global warming.Antonio Hill of Oxfam said: "The countries that created the nightmare are refusing to lift a finger to prevent it becoming a reality. Rich country delegates have spent two weeks talking but have done nothing on the issues that really matter. They may be kidding themselves they are working towards a deal but they are not kidding anyone else."
Monday, June 29, 2009
China now taking climate change seriously: Barroso
China, deemed vital to the fight against global warming, is now taking the issue of climate change "extremely seriously," EU Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said Friday.
Meanwhile US President Barack Obama had effected a "sea-change" on environmental policy there, he said.
China had become "fully and constructively engaged in the international negotiations, while domestically it was pursuing very ambitious targets to reduce energy intensity by 20 percent under its current five-year plan," said Barroso in a speech to close the EU's Green Week.
He offered special congratulations to experts at Chinese Academy of Sciences for their "influential work on climate policy" adding that "we fully share your view that low-carbon development has to be the way forward."
The United States and China are the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
As a developing country China is not bound by the current Kyoto Protocol on climate change and says the bulk of the responsibility for emissions cuts lies with developed nations.
But it has pledged to play a constructive role in the climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December, while implementing domestic energy targets and developing alternative and clean energies.
Barroso said that "all countries except the very poorest will need to contribute" to the efforts to keep global warming down to two degrees centigrade, though with the developed countries taking the lead.
"While we are not there yet, the prospects for agreement at Copenhagen have brightened over the past year," he said.
Barroso's European Commission announced Wednesday that it would provide financing up to 50 million euros (70 million dollars) to help China build a coal-fired power plant equipped with new carbon storage technology to give it near-zero emissions.
Europe deems the carbon capture and storage technology, which is in its infancy, to be a key factor in fighting climate change, and a demonstration plant would be particularly significant in China, which produces and uses a massive amount of coal.
Barroso also said the world was paying abnormal attention to the machinations of the US government on climate change policy under President Barack Obama.
"President Obama?s personal commitment, both to domestic action and to a successful outcome in Copenhagen, has amounted to nothing less than a sea-change in the US position," he said
"His leadership means that the United States is now back at the table," Barroso added. "Rarely, perhaps, has the progress of US domestic legislation been so carefully monitored internationally."
The "American Clean Energy and Security Act" aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, while creating "green" jobs.
In Washington Friday, Democratic House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer predicted his party would have the 218 votes needed to ensure passage of historic legislation to battle global warming.
Barroso admitted he was ready to "put aside the normal conventions here and be very clear.
"We want the US to go as far and as fast as they can on climate change."
But above all, Europe wants the bill to succeed, he said.
Meanwhile US President Barack Obama had effected a "sea-change" on environmental policy there, he said.
China had become "fully and constructively engaged in the international negotiations, while domestically it was pursuing very ambitious targets to reduce energy intensity by 20 percent under its current five-year plan," said Barroso in a speech to close the EU's Green Week.
He offered special congratulations to experts at Chinese Academy of Sciences for their "influential work on climate policy" adding that "we fully share your view that low-carbon development has to be the way forward."
The United States and China are the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
As a developing country China is not bound by the current Kyoto Protocol on climate change and says the bulk of the responsibility for emissions cuts lies with developed nations.
But it has pledged to play a constructive role in the climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December, while implementing domestic energy targets and developing alternative and clean energies.
Barroso said that "all countries except the very poorest will need to contribute" to the efforts to keep global warming down to two degrees centigrade, though with the developed countries taking the lead.
"While we are not there yet, the prospects for agreement at Copenhagen have brightened over the past year," he said.
Barroso's European Commission announced Wednesday that it would provide financing up to 50 million euros (70 million dollars) to help China build a coal-fired power plant equipped with new carbon storage technology to give it near-zero emissions.
Europe deems the carbon capture and storage technology, which is in its infancy, to be a key factor in fighting climate change, and a demonstration plant would be particularly significant in China, which produces and uses a massive amount of coal.
Barroso also said the world was paying abnormal attention to the machinations of the US government on climate change policy under President Barack Obama.
"President Obama?s personal commitment, both to domestic action and to a successful outcome in Copenhagen, has amounted to nothing less than a sea-change in the US position," he said
"His leadership means that the United States is now back at the table," Barroso added. "Rarely, perhaps, has the progress of US domestic legislation been so carefully monitored internationally."
The "American Clean Energy and Security Act" aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, while creating "green" jobs.
In Washington Friday, Democratic House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer predicted his party would have the 218 votes needed to ensure passage of historic legislation to battle global warming.
Barroso admitted he was ready to "put aside the normal conventions here and be very clear.
"We want the US to go as far and as fast as they can on climate change."
But above all, Europe wants the bill to succeed, he said.
China's exit may leave India isolated on climate
The first signs of a break up in the G77 plus China grouping in the climate negotiations emerged at the Obama sponsored 20-country Major economies
Forum in Washington with South Korea breaking away from the developing and poor country block. The meeting called by the US to find a breakthrough in the climate talks saw the first palpable evidence that one of the most influential blocks with a a de-facto veto at the negotiations, could crack before or during the Copenhagen round in December 2009. Blog: Cong, BJP, Left and climate change The block led by India, China, Brazil and South Africa besides other countries has consistently thwarted attempts by the industrialized nations to dictate terms to the UN framework convention on climate change. It has played a singular role in ensuring that emerging and developing economies are not forced to take on economy-hurting emission reductions by groups like the EU or countries such as US, Japan and Australia. But at the MEF, South Korea broke away from the consensus within the G77 and offered to open its domestic actions to reduce emissions to international scrutiny -- a move that indirectly implied quantified targets to reduce emissions under international vigil. At the meeting, where US demanded that it be not asked to reduce emissions too quickly to begin with in the face of an economic recession, the pressure being built on other nations was visible, sources told TOI. The sources said that China too made ambiguous noises about such greenhouse gas reductions commitments -- something it and India have a well crafted and long standing coordinated position against. But it remained unclear, the sources said, if China was actually diverting from its earlier positions or if the Chinese stance was `lost in translation'. Indian officials, however, pointed out that the latest Chinese submissions to the UNFCCC -- the formal negotiating forum -- remained closely aligned to the Indian ones and stuck to the basic demands that G77 plus China has made for long -- funds and technologies to undertake a clean economic pathway and high emission reduction targets for industrialized countries responsible for the accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere. One source in the Indian climate team pointed out that in earlier rounds of negotiations too symptoms of a crack in G77 had emerged. "The economies of many countries are dependent on or have strong linkages to industrialized countries. Within the G77 umbrella, there are differences that some industrialized countries and lobbies are trying to exploit," he said. A close observer of the negotiations from India pointed out that, as in all international negotiations, other economic interests could be used as leverage against more vulnerable nations of the G77 block and such `diplomatic and economic handle' would be employed with greater vigour as climate negotiations in December at Copenhagen near.
Forum in Washington with South Korea breaking away from the developing and poor country block. The meeting called by the US to find a breakthrough in the climate talks saw the first palpable evidence that one of the most influential blocks with a a de-facto veto at the negotiations, could crack before or during the Copenhagen round in December 2009. Blog: Cong, BJP, Left and climate change The block led by India, China, Brazil and South Africa besides other countries has consistently thwarted attempts by the industrialized nations to dictate terms to the UN framework convention on climate change. It has played a singular role in ensuring that emerging and developing economies are not forced to take on economy-hurting emission reductions by groups like the EU or countries such as US, Japan and Australia. But at the MEF, South Korea broke away from the consensus within the G77 and offered to open its domestic actions to reduce emissions to international scrutiny -- a move that indirectly implied quantified targets to reduce emissions under international vigil. At the meeting, where US demanded that it be not asked to reduce emissions too quickly to begin with in the face of an economic recession, the pressure being built on other nations was visible, sources told TOI. The sources said that China too made ambiguous noises about such greenhouse gas reductions commitments -- something it and India have a well crafted and long standing coordinated position against. But it remained unclear, the sources said, if China was actually diverting from its earlier positions or if the Chinese stance was `lost in translation'. Indian officials, however, pointed out that the latest Chinese submissions to the UNFCCC -- the formal negotiating forum -- remained closely aligned to the Indian ones and stuck to the basic demands that G77 plus China has made for long -- funds and technologies to undertake a clean economic pathway and high emission reduction targets for industrialized countries responsible for the accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere. One source in the Indian climate team pointed out that in earlier rounds of negotiations too symptoms of a crack in G77 had emerged. "The economies of many countries are dependent on or have strong linkages to industrialized countries. Within the G77 umbrella, there are differences that some industrialized countries and lobbies are trying to exploit," he said. A close observer of the negotiations from India pointed out that, as in all international negotiations, other economic interests could be used as leverage against more vulnerable nations of the G77 block and such `diplomatic and economic handle' would be employed with greater vigour as climate negotiations in December at Copenhagen near.
China and India show rapid increase in global warming emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to rise with a mix of old and new polluters, according to the Little Green Data Book 2006, launched today on the occasion of the Fourteenth Session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD-14). An annual publication of the World Bank, according to this year's edition, CO2 emissions worldwide have now topped 24 billion metric tons (the most recent comprehensive data are for 2002), an increase of 15 percent compared to the 1992 levels.
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The rapidly expanding economies of China and India are showing a swift increase in CO2 emissions. China, which is already the second largest polluter, has increased its emissions by 33 percent between 1992 and 2002, while India's emissions have grown 57 percent in the same period. This trend will likely continue as economic activity grows. Such an increase in emissions has taken place despite improvements in energy efficiency by China in the last decade. In 1992, a dollar of GDP was associated with the production of 4.8Kg of CO2. In 2002, every dollar of GDP was associated with 2.5Kg of CO2. Still, CO2 emissions stem mainly from rich countries, with the United States contributing 24 percent of total emissions and the countries of the European Monetary Union contributing 10 percent. But the share of developing country contributions to CO2 emissions is rapidly increasing. From 2000 to 2002, global CO2 emissions increased by 2.5 percent annually, and about two-thirds of this increase came from low and middle income countries. According to Steen Jorgensen, Acting Vice-President for Sustainable Development at the World Bank, "This reality shows us that we need to find creative ways to engage all major economies of the world to solve a global problem such as climate change. The recently launched Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development is an attempt by the World Bank to contribute in this direction."
Jorgensen was referring to a new approach — the Clean Energy & Development: Towards an Investment Framework — recently endorsed by the Governors of the World Bank designed to boost energy investments while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. "All countries are vulnerable to climate change," says Warren Evans, Environment Director, World Bank, "but the poorest countries are the most exposed, and have the least means to adapt to it. Climate change may hamper efforts to reduce poverty in agriculture-dependent countries in Africa and low-lying coastal areas. Climate proofing development initiatives is an urgent need in order to avoid human disasters." CO2 emissions stem mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. The energy sector accounts for about 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and the agricultural sector for most of the remaining 20 percent (source: Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework, the World Bank, April 23, 2006). "Coal is by far the main source of energy for electricity generation," says Jamal Saghir, Director Energy & Water, World Bank. "The relevance of coal has increased over time, particularly in low-income countries where the share of electricity generated by coal has shifted from 41 percent in 1990 to 46 percent in 2003. In China, the use of coal has increased from 71 percent in 1990 to 79 percent in 2003. In India, the increment has been from 65 percent to 68 percent." Energy use per capita is highest in rich countries, which consume on average 11 times more energy per person than low income countries. High income countries in total use 51 percent of the world's energy production, followed by East Asia and Pacific, 18 percent, and Europe and Central Asia, 13 percent. While rich countries have developed modern sources of energy, wood fuels are still the primary source of energy for approximately 2 billion people in poor countries. Solid biomass is associated with respiratory problems caused by indoor smoke. Most of the victims are infants, children, and women from poor rural families. Acute respiratory infections in children and chronic pulmonary disease in women are a common feature. Indoor smoke accounts for 3.6 percent of the burden of disease in developing countries with high mortality, following the lack of water supply and sanitation which accounts for 5.5 percent of death and illness. The data shows very little progress in the past 10 years. In low income countries, the use of biomass products and waste as a percent of total energy use has gone from 55 percent in 1992 to 49 percent in 2003. At the same time, livelihoods of the rural poor depend heavily on the ecosystem capacity to provide a sustained source of energy, and in some regions fuel wood crises may take place in the next decade with subsequent effects on ecosystems. Countries rich in fossil energy resources on an unsustainable trajectory
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Are countries saving enough for future growth? The Little Green Data Book shows that, by and large, countries with large endowments of fossil energy resources choose to consume rather than to invest the returns generated by energy resources. Sub-soil wealth is not being transformed into assets necessary to sustain growth. Countries such as Angola, Nigeria, and Venezuela, that enjoy high energy returns, have negative saving rates. In these countries, total wealth — the sum of man-made, natural, and human capital — is declining, posing serious risk on the sustainability of future growth rates. A negative savings rate implies that welfare will decline at some point in the future as a result of decisions made today. Sustainability in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa appears very low once traditional savings measures are adjusted to take into account the loss of natural capital. By contrast, East Asian economies, such as China and the Philippines, enjoy very high savings rates. For these countries, asset accumulation is a precondition for future growth. Commenting on how the LGDB is developed, Eric Swanson, Program Manager for global monitoring in the World Bank's Development Data Group, says that, "The Little Green Data Book is the World Bank's comprehensive guide to environmental statistics. With data for 48 indicators in 222 countries, territories, and regions, it provides a statistical portrait of the state of the world and the impact of human activity." The Little Green Data Book draws on the World Bank's recently released World Development Indicators database and makes key development indicators widely available to a global audience.
google_protectAndRun("render_ads.js::google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);
The rapidly expanding economies of China and India are showing a swift increase in CO2 emissions. China, which is already the second largest polluter, has increased its emissions by 33 percent between 1992 and 2002, while India's emissions have grown 57 percent in the same period. This trend will likely continue as economic activity grows. Such an increase in emissions has taken place despite improvements in energy efficiency by China in the last decade. In 1992, a dollar of GDP was associated with the production of 4.8Kg of CO2. In 2002, every dollar of GDP was associated with 2.5Kg of CO2. Still, CO2 emissions stem mainly from rich countries, with the United States contributing 24 percent of total emissions and the countries of the European Monetary Union contributing 10 percent. But the share of developing country contributions to CO2 emissions is rapidly increasing. From 2000 to 2002, global CO2 emissions increased by 2.5 percent annually, and about two-thirds of this increase came from low and middle income countries. According to Steen Jorgensen, Acting Vice-President for Sustainable Development at the World Bank, "This reality shows us that we need to find creative ways to engage all major economies of the world to solve a global problem such as climate change. The recently launched Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development is an attempt by the World Bank to contribute in this direction."
Jorgensen was referring to a new approach — the Clean Energy & Development: Towards an Investment Framework — recently endorsed by the Governors of the World Bank designed to boost energy investments while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. "All countries are vulnerable to climate change," says Warren Evans, Environment Director, World Bank, "but the poorest countries are the most exposed, and have the least means to adapt to it. Climate change may hamper efforts to reduce poverty in agriculture-dependent countries in Africa and low-lying coastal areas. Climate proofing development initiatives is an urgent need in order to avoid human disasters." CO2 emissions stem mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. The energy sector accounts for about 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and the agricultural sector for most of the remaining 20 percent (source: Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework, the World Bank, April 23, 2006). "Coal is by far the main source of energy for electricity generation," says Jamal Saghir, Director Energy & Water, World Bank. "The relevance of coal has increased over time, particularly in low-income countries where the share of electricity generated by coal has shifted from 41 percent in 1990 to 46 percent in 2003. In China, the use of coal has increased from 71 percent in 1990 to 79 percent in 2003. In India, the increment has been from 65 percent to 68 percent." Energy use per capita is highest in rich countries, which consume on average 11 times more energy per person than low income countries. High income countries in total use 51 percent of the world's energy production, followed by East Asia and Pacific, 18 percent, and Europe and Central Asia, 13 percent. While rich countries have developed modern sources of energy, wood fuels are still the primary source of energy for approximately 2 billion people in poor countries. Solid biomass is associated with respiratory problems caused by indoor smoke. Most of the victims are infants, children, and women from poor rural families. Acute respiratory infections in children and chronic pulmonary disease in women are a common feature. Indoor smoke accounts for 3.6 percent of the burden of disease in developing countries with high mortality, following the lack of water supply and sanitation which accounts for 5.5 percent of death and illness. The data shows very little progress in the past 10 years. In low income countries, the use of biomass products and waste as a percent of total energy use has gone from 55 percent in 1992 to 49 percent in 2003. At the same time, livelihoods of the rural poor depend heavily on the ecosystem capacity to provide a sustained source of energy, and in some regions fuel wood crises may take place in the next decade with subsequent effects on ecosystems. Countries rich in fossil energy resources on an unsustainable trajectory
GA_googleFillSlot("news_160x600_inline");
Are countries saving enough for future growth? The Little Green Data Book shows that, by and large, countries with large endowments of fossil energy resources choose to consume rather than to invest the returns generated by energy resources. Sub-soil wealth is not being transformed into assets necessary to sustain growth. Countries such as Angola, Nigeria, and Venezuela, that enjoy high energy returns, have negative saving rates. In these countries, total wealth — the sum of man-made, natural, and human capital — is declining, posing serious risk on the sustainability of future growth rates. A negative savings rate implies that welfare will decline at some point in the future as a result of decisions made today. Sustainability in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa appears very low once traditional savings measures are adjusted to take into account the loss of natural capital. By contrast, East Asian economies, such as China and the Philippines, enjoy very high savings rates. For these countries, asset accumulation is a precondition for future growth. Commenting on how the LGDB is developed, Eric Swanson, Program Manager for global monitoring in the World Bank's Development Data Group, says that, "The Little Green Data Book is the World Bank's comprehensive guide to environmental statistics. With data for 48 indicators in 222 countries, territories, and regions, it provides a statistical portrait of the state of the world and the impact of human activity." The Little Green Data Book draws on the World Bank's recently released World Development Indicators database and makes key development indicators widely available to a global audience.
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 °C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages1, 2. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 °C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 °C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO2 emissions over 2000–50 to 1,000 Gt CO2 yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 °C—and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO2 yields a 50% probability—given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000–06 CO2 emissions3 were 234 Gt CO2, less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves4, 5, 6 can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués7 envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12–45% probability of exceeding 2 °C—assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 °C rises to 53–87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.
Global Warming: Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Would Save Arctic Ice, Reduce Sea Level Rise
The threat of global warming can still be greatly diminished if nations cut emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases by 70 percent this century, according to a new analysis. While global temperatures would rise, the most dangerous potential aspects of climate change, including massive losses of Arctic sea ice and permafrost and significant sea level rise, could be partially avoided.
The study, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), will be published next week in Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor.
"This research indicates that we can no longer avoid significant warming during this century," says NCAR scientist Warren Washington, the lead author. "But if the world were to implement this level of emission cuts, we could stabilize the threat of climate change and avoid catastrophe."
Avoiding dangerous climate change
Average global temperatures have warmed by close to 1 degree Celsius (almost 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era. Much of the warming is due to human-produced emissions of greenhouse gases, predominantly carbon dioxide. This heat-trapping gas has increased from a pre-industrial level of about 284 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere to more than 380 ppm today.
With research showing that additional warming of about 1 degree C (1.8 degrees F) may be the threshold for dangerous climate change, the European Union has called for dramatic cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The U.S. Congress is also debating the issue.
To examine the impact of such cuts on the world's climate, Washington and his colleagues ran a series of global supercomputer studies with the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model. They assumed that carbon dioxide levels could be held to 450 ppm at the end of this century. That figure comes from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which has cited 450 ppm as an attainable target if the world quickly adapts conservation practices and new green technologies to cut emissions dramatically. In contrast, emissions are now on track to reach about 750 ppm by 2100 if unchecked.
The team's results showed that if carbon dioxide were held to 450 ppm, global temperatures would increase by 0.6 degrees C (about 1 degree F) above current readings by the end of the century. In contrast, the study showed that temperatures would rise by almost four times that amount, to 2.2 degrees C (4 degrees F) above current readings, if emissions were allowed to continue on their present course.
Holding carbon dioxide levels to 450 ppm would have other impacts, according to the climate modeling study:
Sea level rise due to thermal expansion as water temperatures warmed would be 14 centimeters (about 5.5 inches) instead of 22 centimeters (8.7 inches). Significant additional sea level rise would be expected in either scenario from melting ice sheets and glaciers.
Arctic ice in the summertime would shrink by about a quarter in volume and stabilize by 2100, as opposed to shrinking at least three-quarters and continuing to melt. Some research has suggested the summertime ice will disappear altogether this century if emissions continue on their current trajectory.
Arctic warming would be reduced by almost half, helping preserve fisheries and populations of sea birds and Arctic mammals in such regions as the northern Bering Sea.
Significant regional changes in precipitation, including decreased precipitation in the U.S. Southwest and an increase in the U.S. Northeast and Canada, would be cut in half if emissions were kept to 450 ppm.
The climate system would stabilize by about 2100, instead of continuing to warm.
The research team used supercomputer simulations to compare a business-as-usual scenario to one with dramatic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions beginning in about a decade. The authors stressed that they were not studying how such cuts could be achieved nor advocating a particular policy.
"Our goal is to provide policymakers with appropriate research so they can make informed decisions," Washington says. "This study provides some hope that we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change--if society can cut emissions substantially over the next several decades and continue major cuts through the century."
The study, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), will be published next week in Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor.
"This research indicates that we can no longer avoid significant warming during this century," says NCAR scientist Warren Washington, the lead author. "But if the world were to implement this level of emission cuts, we could stabilize the threat of climate change and avoid catastrophe."
Avoiding dangerous climate change
Average global temperatures have warmed by close to 1 degree Celsius (almost 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era. Much of the warming is due to human-produced emissions of greenhouse gases, predominantly carbon dioxide. This heat-trapping gas has increased from a pre-industrial level of about 284 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere to more than 380 ppm today.
With research showing that additional warming of about 1 degree C (1.8 degrees F) may be the threshold for dangerous climate change, the European Union has called for dramatic cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The U.S. Congress is also debating the issue.
To examine the impact of such cuts on the world's climate, Washington and his colleagues ran a series of global supercomputer studies with the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model. They assumed that carbon dioxide levels could be held to 450 ppm at the end of this century. That figure comes from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which has cited 450 ppm as an attainable target if the world quickly adapts conservation practices and new green technologies to cut emissions dramatically. In contrast, emissions are now on track to reach about 750 ppm by 2100 if unchecked.
The team's results showed that if carbon dioxide were held to 450 ppm, global temperatures would increase by 0.6 degrees C (about 1 degree F) above current readings by the end of the century. In contrast, the study showed that temperatures would rise by almost four times that amount, to 2.2 degrees C (4 degrees F) above current readings, if emissions were allowed to continue on their present course.
Holding carbon dioxide levels to 450 ppm would have other impacts, according to the climate modeling study:
Sea level rise due to thermal expansion as water temperatures warmed would be 14 centimeters (about 5.5 inches) instead of 22 centimeters (8.7 inches). Significant additional sea level rise would be expected in either scenario from melting ice sheets and glaciers.
Arctic ice in the summertime would shrink by about a quarter in volume and stabilize by 2100, as opposed to shrinking at least three-quarters and continuing to melt. Some research has suggested the summertime ice will disappear altogether this century if emissions continue on their current trajectory.
Arctic warming would be reduced by almost half, helping preserve fisheries and populations of sea birds and Arctic mammals in such regions as the northern Bering Sea.
Significant regional changes in precipitation, including decreased precipitation in the U.S. Southwest and an increase in the U.S. Northeast and Canada, would be cut in half if emissions were kept to 450 ppm.
The climate system would stabilize by about 2100, instead of continuing to warm.
The research team used supercomputer simulations to compare a business-as-usual scenario to one with dramatic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions beginning in about a decade. The authors stressed that they were not studying how such cuts could be achieved nor advocating a particular policy.
"Our goal is to provide policymakers with appropriate research so they can make informed decisions," Washington says. "This study provides some hope that we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change--if society can cut emissions substantially over the next several decades and continue major cuts through the century."
Industry's Anti-Global Warming Misinformation Campaign Reminiscent of Big Tobacco's Strategy
The idea stated in the title of this blog post is not novel--far from it, in fact. We have known for a long time that the auto industry, the oil industry, and others with a vested interest have engaged in a long-running campaign of misinformation to discredit the science behind global warming. Manufacturing doubt is a common strategy employed by those whose agenda falls on the wrong side of scientific fact. This includes creationists, pseudoscientists, global warming denialists, HIV denialists, and, very notably, the tobacco industry's notorious decades-long campaign to deny the link between smoking and cancer, despite the deniers' own undeniable knowledge that such a link existed.
The reason I bring all of this up now, though, is that The New York Times has an article by Andrew Revkin about some particularly interesting documents recently acquired by the Times. The documents, from the Global Climate Coalition (an industry group), shed light on how the group suppressed its own scientists and demonstrate that the group was actively aware it was spreading misinformation:
For more than a decade the Global Climate Coalition, a group representing industries with profits tied to fossil fuels, led an aggressive lobbying and public relations campaign against the idea that emissions of heat-trapping gases could lead to global warming.
"The role of greenhouse gases in climate change is not well understood," the coalition said in a scientific "backgrounder" provided to lawmakers and journalists through the early 1990s, adding that "scientists differ" on the issue.
But a document filed in a federal lawsuit demonstrates that even as the coalition worked to sway opinion, its own scientific and technical experts were advising that the science backing the role of greenhouse gases in global warming could not be refuted.
"The scientific basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and cannot be denied," the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalition in 1995.
The coalition was financed by fees from large corporations and trade groups representing the oil, coal and auto industries, among others. In 1997, the year an international climate agreement that came to be known as the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, its budget totaled $1.68 million, according to tax records obtained by environmental groups
The reason I bring all of this up now, though, is that The New York Times has an article by Andrew Revkin about some particularly interesting documents recently acquired by the Times. The documents, from the Global Climate Coalition (an industry group), shed light on how the group suppressed its own scientists and demonstrate that the group was actively aware it was spreading misinformation:
For more than a decade the Global Climate Coalition, a group representing industries with profits tied to fossil fuels, led an aggressive lobbying and public relations campaign against the idea that emissions of heat-trapping gases could lead to global warming.
"The role of greenhouse gases in climate change is not well understood," the coalition said in a scientific "backgrounder" provided to lawmakers and journalists through the early 1990s, adding that "scientists differ" on the issue.
But a document filed in a federal lawsuit demonstrates that even as the coalition worked to sway opinion, its own scientific and technical experts were advising that the science backing the role of greenhouse gases in global warming could not be refuted.
"The scientific basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and cannot be denied," the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalition in 1995.
The coalition was financed by fees from large corporations and trade groups representing the oil, coal and auto industries, among others. In 1997, the year an international climate agreement that came to be known as the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, its budget totaled $1.68 million, according to tax records obtained by environmental groups
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