Asia's share of global greenhouse gas emissions could rise to more than 40 percent by 2030, making it the world's main driver of climate change, experts warned Tuesday.
The most populous continent with the fastest-growing economies in China and India already accounts for a third of world emissions of gases blamed for warming weather, including carbon dioxide, Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda told a conference in Manila.
Its share of discharges from energy use has tripled over the past 30 years, he said.
Asia also stands out as the most vulnerable region to climate change.
In addition to water shortages, crop yields in Central and South Asia could drop by 30 percent by 2050, and coastal cities including Bangkok, Jakarta, Karachi, Manila, Mumbai and Shanghai will be vulnerable to flooding or damage from unpredictable weather patterns, the ADB said.
Within this century, people living in coastal Bangladesh, Maldives and Tuvalu in the southwest Pacific may be forced to flee because of rising sea levels, the Manila-based lender said.
"Climate change has this characteristic of exacerbating the existing stress in a region ... which is afflicted by poverty and a lack of infrastructure," said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Climate scientists have urged rich countries to reduce emissions by between 25 percent and 40 percent by 2020 to avoid the worst effects of warming.
They say warming weather will lead to widespread droughts, floods, higher sea levels and worsening storms.
Even a 3.6-degree Fahrenheit (2-degree Celsius) temperature rise could subject up to 2 billion people to water shortages by 2050 and threaten extinction for 20 percent to 30 percent of the world's species, according to a 2007 report by the intergovernmental panel, a U.N. network of 2,000 scientists.
Kuroda said it was imperative to step up efforts to put the region on a path of low-carbon growth.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, in a video address to the conference, called on Asian countries to help achieve a new global warming agreement in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December. Ban said he wants to see an "ambitious, comprehensive and fair" deal.
U.N. climate delegates in Bonn completed a draft Friday of a new agreement containing gaps and competing ideas that await decisions by political leaders.
The rift more clearly exposed differences between industrial and emerging nations—and within those blocs—on the obligations of the 192 countries involved in the talks to control greenhouse gases.
The U.S. and China are the largest emitters, accounting for about half the world's carbon emissions. But neither country was part of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which called on 37 countries to cut carbon emissions by a total of 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.
Meanwhile, about 30 activists criticized the ADB for continuing to support coal-energy projects they say pollute the environment and contribute to climate change.
ADB officials say the bank funds very few coal power plants, which for some developing countries are a cheap energy source.
Kuroda said the ADB provided nearly $1.7 billion last year for projects with clean energy components like wind power in China and India, exceeding its $1 billion target.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Brown proposes £60bn climate fund
Prime Minister Gordon Brown wants to set up a £60bn annual fund to help poor countries deal with climate change.
He hopes it will break the deadlock over who will pay developing nations to adapt to the changing climate and who will help them obtain clean technology.
Countries must reach a binding global agreement on carbon emission cuts at December's Copenhagen summit, he said.
The summit is seen as the last chance to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto agreement, which expires in 2012.
Environment and anti-poverty campaigners welcomed Mr Brown's remarks but said he and other leaders must deliver real financial support not merely "empty rhetoric".
Finance is one of the key sticking points in global negotiations, with poor nations demanding huge amounts of cash and rich nations reluctant to commit.
The UK figure is less than developing nations say they need - but at least it will provide a negotiating point in the coming G8 when the leaders of emerging nations will join for a special climate summit chaired by US President Barack Obama.
Some of the political blocks need to be cleared in this meeting if there is to be a new global deal at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in December.
Mr Brown said: "Copenhagen is twenty-three weeks away. When historians look back on this critical moment, let them say, not that we were the generation that failed our children; but that we had the courage, and the will, to succeed."
'Act with vision'
Speaking in London, Mr Brown said leading industrialised economies must support developing nations most at risk from climate change to enable them to keep on growing while meeting their environmental obligations.
He suggested £60bn would be needed to help poor countries adjust to climate change, stressing the UK would pay "its fair share" towards this.
"Over recent years, the world has woken to the reality of climate change," he said.
"But the fact that is that we have not yet joined together to act against it.
"Copenhagen must be the moment we do so.
"If we act now, act together and act with vision and resolve, success at Copenhagen is within reach."
Money could be raised from selling carbon permits and from existing development aid budgets, although he said contributions from the latter should be limited.
The BBC's Environment Analyst Roger Harrabin said Mr Brown's efforts were designed to break the deadlock over who would pay for poorer countries to make the difficult transition to a low-carbon economy.
But Oxfam said at least $150bn a year was needed to protect poorer countries from climate change.
"The prime minister's proposal could give a welcome kick-start to negotiations if other leaders rise to the challenge," said chief executive Barbara Stocking.
"Ultimately, if catastrophe is to be avoided and the poorest people protected, we need more money and sooner."
Friends of the Earth said it welcomed the government's "recognition that finance is key to breaking the deadlock in the stalled UN talks," but added: "We have no chance of achieving the cuts required through the con of carbon offsetting."
Temperature rises
By putting a figure on the cost of climate change adjustment, Greenpeace said Gordon Brown was showing leadership but urged him to put "serious money" on the table when G8 leaders meet in Italy next month.
Lord Stern, who wrote a climate change report for the government in 2008, said Mr Brown's initiative was "timely" but countries getting money should be able to follow their own development agendas and not have them imposed.
Ministers should push for tougher targets that follow the science and not the politics
Simon Hughes, Lib Dems
The UK government is committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 and argues the rest of the world must follow suit if global temperature rises are to be restricted to 2 Celsius - above which is regarded dangerous.
"We cannot in good conscience plan for the world to exceed that limit," Mr Brown said.
Ministers say the legally-binding target puts the UK in the vanguard of international efforts on climate change.
But the Lib Dems said the UK's targets were not ambitious enough and its green credentials were undermined by the government's approval of new coal-fired power stations and airport runways.
"People in the UK and around the world should do all they can to tackle climate change, but we need the government to lead by example," said the party's climate spokesman Simon Hughes.
"Ministers should push for tougher targets that follow the science and not the politics."
He hopes it will break the deadlock over who will pay developing nations to adapt to the changing climate and who will help them obtain clean technology.
Countries must reach a binding global agreement on carbon emission cuts at December's Copenhagen summit, he said.
The summit is seen as the last chance to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto agreement, which expires in 2012.
Environment and anti-poverty campaigners welcomed Mr Brown's remarks but said he and other leaders must deliver real financial support not merely "empty rhetoric".
Finance is one of the key sticking points in global negotiations, with poor nations demanding huge amounts of cash and rich nations reluctant to commit.
The UK figure is less than developing nations say they need - but at least it will provide a negotiating point in the coming G8 when the leaders of emerging nations will join for a special climate summit chaired by US President Barack Obama.
Some of the political blocks need to be cleared in this meeting if there is to be a new global deal at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in December.
Mr Brown said: "Copenhagen is twenty-three weeks away. When historians look back on this critical moment, let them say, not that we were the generation that failed our children; but that we had the courage, and the will, to succeed."
'Act with vision'
Speaking in London, Mr Brown said leading industrialised economies must support developing nations most at risk from climate change to enable them to keep on growing while meeting their environmental obligations.
He suggested £60bn would be needed to help poor countries adjust to climate change, stressing the UK would pay "its fair share" towards this.
"Over recent years, the world has woken to the reality of climate change," he said.
"But the fact that is that we have not yet joined together to act against it.
"Copenhagen must be the moment we do so.
"If we act now, act together and act with vision and resolve, success at Copenhagen is within reach."
Money could be raised from selling carbon permits and from existing development aid budgets, although he said contributions from the latter should be limited.
The BBC's Environment Analyst Roger Harrabin said Mr Brown's efforts were designed to break the deadlock over who would pay for poorer countries to make the difficult transition to a low-carbon economy.
But Oxfam said at least $150bn a year was needed to protect poorer countries from climate change.
"The prime minister's proposal could give a welcome kick-start to negotiations if other leaders rise to the challenge," said chief executive Barbara Stocking.
"Ultimately, if catastrophe is to be avoided and the poorest people protected, we need more money and sooner."
Friends of the Earth said it welcomed the government's "recognition that finance is key to breaking the deadlock in the stalled UN talks," but added: "We have no chance of achieving the cuts required through the con of carbon offsetting."
Temperature rises
By putting a figure on the cost of climate change adjustment, Greenpeace said Gordon Brown was showing leadership but urged him to put "serious money" on the table when G8 leaders meet in Italy next month.
Lord Stern, who wrote a climate change report for the government in 2008, said Mr Brown's initiative was "timely" but countries getting money should be able to follow their own development agendas and not have them imposed.
Ministers should push for tougher targets that follow the science and not the politics
Simon Hughes, Lib Dems
The UK government is committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 and argues the rest of the world must follow suit if global temperature rises are to be restricted to 2 Celsius - above which is regarded dangerous.
"We cannot in good conscience plan for the world to exceed that limit," Mr Brown said.
Ministers say the legally-binding target puts the UK in the vanguard of international efforts on climate change.
But the Lib Dems said the UK's targets were not ambitious enough and its green credentials were undermined by the government's approval of new coal-fired power stations and airport runways.
"People in the UK and around the world should do all they can to tackle climate change, but we need the government to lead by example," said the party's climate spokesman Simon Hughes.
"Ministers should push for tougher targets that follow the science and not the politics."
US eases pressure on China over climate change targets
The US said today it would not demand that China commits to binding cuts in its greenhouse gas emissions, marking an important step towards agreement on a global treaty to fight climate change.
The move came at the end of the latest round of UN climate change talks involving 183 countries, which aim to produce a deal in Copenhagen in December.
Jonathan Pershing, head of the US delegation in Bonn, said developing countries – seeking to grow their economies and alleviate poverty – would instead be asked to commit to other actions. These include increasing energy efficiency standards and improving the take-up of renewable energy, but would not deliver specific reductions.
He said: "We're saying that the actions of developing countries should be binding, not the outcomes of those actions."
Only developed countries, including the US, would be expected to guarantee cuts. The pledge was included in a US blueprint for a climate change deal submitted to the Bonn meeting, which Pershing said was based on the need for rich countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050. The American plan, if approved, could replace the existing Kyoto protocol. The lack of any carbon targets for developing countries in the protocol was the reason the US never ratified it.
While such cuts were believed to be unrealistic in the new treaty, the first clear acceptance of that at the UN talks by the US is being seen as significant. EU officials said they were studying the US proposal.China and the US are the two biggest polluters in the world, making their positions on the deal critical.
In a separate submission to the meeting, China was among a group of developing countries that called on rich countries to cut emissions by 40% by 2020 on 1990 levels. According to the environmental group WWF, commitments made by developing countries so far add up only to about a 10% cut. Japan this week proposed an effective 8% cut in its emissions.
Observers see the 40% demand as unrealistic, suggesting the US move amounts to blinking first in the negotiations. But back-channel negotiations, revealed by the Guardian last month, showed the two countries are searching for a deal.
John Ashe, who chaired discussions at Bonn on how Kyoto targets could be extended, said many of the targets put forward could be revised as the Copenhagen deadline looms. "There is always an initial move and then a final move. I don't believe we're in the final stage yet," he said.
He said China should agree to take actions to control emissions that were measured and reported to the international community.
In Washington, Todd Stern, the state department's climate change envoy, said the US still expected China to move towards a cleaner economy. "We are expecting China to reduce their emissions very considerably compared to where they would otherwise be [with] a business as usual trajectory," he said.
At the end of the talks, the UN's top climate official said progress had been made. Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN framework convention on climate change, said: "A big achievement of this meeting is that governments have made it clearer what they want to see in the Copenhagen agreed outcome."
But green campaigners criticised the failure to resolve issues such as an overall target for 2020 emission reductions or concrete proposals on funding for poor countries to deal with global warming.Antonio Hill of Oxfam said: "The countries that created the nightmare are refusing to lift a finger to prevent it becoming a reality. Rich country delegates have spent two weeks talking but have done nothing on the issues that really matter. They may be kidding themselves they are working towards a deal but they are not kidding anyone else."
The move came at the end of the latest round of UN climate change talks involving 183 countries, which aim to produce a deal in Copenhagen in December.
Jonathan Pershing, head of the US delegation in Bonn, said developing countries – seeking to grow their economies and alleviate poverty – would instead be asked to commit to other actions. These include increasing energy efficiency standards and improving the take-up of renewable energy, but would not deliver specific reductions.
He said: "We're saying that the actions of developing countries should be binding, not the outcomes of those actions."
Only developed countries, including the US, would be expected to guarantee cuts. The pledge was included in a US blueprint for a climate change deal submitted to the Bonn meeting, which Pershing said was based on the need for rich countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050. The American plan, if approved, could replace the existing Kyoto protocol. The lack of any carbon targets for developing countries in the protocol was the reason the US never ratified it.
While such cuts were believed to be unrealistic in the new treaty, the first clear acceptance of that at the UN talks by the US is being seen as significant. EU officials said they were studying the US proposal.China and the US are the two biggest polluters in the world, making their positions on the deal critical.
In a separate submission to the meeting, China was among a group of developing countries that called on rich countries to cut emissions by 40% by 2020 on 1990 levels. According to the environmental group WWF, commitments made by developing countries so far add up only to about a 10% cut. Japan this week proposed an effective 8% cut in its emissions.
Observers see the 40% demand as unrealistic, suggesting the US move amounts to blinking first in the negotiations. But back-channel negotiations, revealed by the Guardian last month, showed the two countries are searching for a deal.
John Ashe, who chaired discussions at Bonn on how Kyoto targets could be extended, said many of the targets put forward could be revised as the Copenhagen deadline looms. "There is always an initial move and then a final move. I don't believe we're in the final stage yet," he said.
He said China should agree to take actions to control emissions that were measured and reported to the international community.
In Washington, Todd Stern, the state department's climate change envoy, said the US still expected China to move towards a cleaner economy. "We are expecting China to reduce their emissions very considerably compared to where they would otherwise be [with] a business as usual trajectory," he said.
At the end of the talks, the UN's top climate official said progress had been made. Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN framework convention on climate change, said: "A big achievement of this meeting is that governments have made it clearer what they want to see in the Copenhagen agreed outcome."
But green campaigners criticised the failure to resolve issues such as an overall target for 2020 emission reductions or concrete proposals on funding for poor countries to deal with global warming.Antonio Hill of Oxfam said: "The countries that created the nightmare are refusing to lift a finger to prevent it becoming a reality. Rich country delegates have spent two weeks talking but have done nothing on the issues that really matter. They may be kidding themselves they are working towards a deal but they are not kidding anyone else."
China now taking climate change seriously: Barroso
China, deemed vital to the fight against global warming, is now taking the issue of climate change "extremely seriously," EU Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said Friday.
Meanwhile US President Barack Obama had effected a "sea-change" on environmental policy there, he said.
China had become "fully and constructively engaged in the international negotiations, while domestically it was pursuing very ambitious targets to reduce energy intensity by 20 percent under its current five-year plan," said Barroso in a speech to close the EU's Green Week.
He offered special congratulations to experts at Chinese Academy of Sciences for their "influential work on climate policy" adding that "we fully share your view that low-carbon development has to be the way forward."
The United States and China are the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
As a developing country China is not bound by the current Kyoto Protocol on climate change and says the bulk of the responsibility for emissions cuts lies with developed nations.
But it has pledged to play a constructive role in the climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December, while implementing domestic energy targets and developing alternative and clean energies.
Barroso said that "all countries except the very poorest will need to contribute" to the efforts to keep global warming down to two degrees centigrade, though with the developed countries taking the lead.
"While we are not there yet, the prospects for agreement at Copenhagen have brightened over the past year," he said.
Barroso's European Commission announced Wednesday that it would provide financing up to 50 million euros (70 million dollars) to help China build a coal-fired power plant equipped with new carbon storage technology to give it near-zero emissions.
Europe deems the carbon capture and storage technology, which is in its infancy, to be a key factor in fighting climate change, and a demonstration plant would be particularly significant in China, which produces and uses a massive amount of coal.
Barroso also said the world was paying abnormal attention to the machinations of the US government on climate change policy under President Barack Obama.
"President Obama?s personal commitment, both to domestic action and to a successful outcome in Copenhagen, has amounted to nothing less than a sea-change in the US position," he said
"His leadership means that the United States is now back at the table," Barroso added. "Rarely, perhaps, has the progress of US domestic legislation been so carefully monitored internationally."
The "American Clean Energy and Security Act" aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, while creating "green" jobs.
In Washington Friday, Democratic House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer predicted his party would have the 218 votes needed to ensure passage of historic legislation to battle global warming.
Barroso admitted he was ready to "put aside the normal conventions here and be very clear.
"We want the US to go as far and as fast as they can on climate change."
But above all, Europe wants the bill to succeed, he said.
Meanwhile US President Barack Obama had effected a "sea-change" on environmental policy there, he said.
China had become "fully and constructively engaged in the international negotiations, while domestically it was pursuing very ambitious targets to reduce energy intensity by 20 percent under its current five-year plan," said Barroso in a speech to close the EU's Green Week.
He offered special congratulations to experts at Chinese Academy of Sciences for their "influential work on climate policy" adding that "we fully share your view that low-carbon development has to be the way forward."
The United States and China are the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
As a developing country China is not bound by the current Kyoto Protocol on climate change and says the bulk of the responsibility for emissions cuts lies with developed nations.
But it has pledged to play a constructive role in the climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December, while implementing domestic energy targets and developing alternative and clean energies.
Barroso said that "all countries except the very poorest will need to contribute" to the efforts to keep global warming down to two degrees centigrade, though with the developed countries taking the lead.
"While we are not there yet, the prospects for agreement at Copenhagen have brightened over the past year," he said.
Barroso's European Commission announced Wednesday that it would provide financing up to 50 million euros (70 million dollars) to help China build a coal-fired power plant equipped with new carbon storage technology to give it near-zero emissions.
Europe deems the carbon capture and storage technology, which is in its infancy, to be a key factor in fighting climate change, and a demonstration plant would be particularly significant in China, which produces and uses a massive amount of coal.
Barroso also said the world was paying abnormal attention to the machinations of the US government on climate change policy under President Barack Obama.
"President Obama?s personal commitment, both to domestic action and to a successful outcome in Copenhagen, has amounted to nothing less than a sea-change in the US position," he said
"His leadership means that the United States is now back at the table," Barroso added. "Rarely, perhaps, has the progress of US domestic legislation been so carefully monitored internationally."
The "American Clean Energy and Security Act" aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, while creating "green" jobs.
In Washington Friday, Democratic House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer predicted his party would have the 218 votes needed to ensure passage of historic legislation to battle global warming.
Barroso admitted he was ready to "put aside the normal conventions here and be very clear.
"We want the US to go as far and as fast as they can on climate change."
But above all, Europe wants the bill to succeed, he said.
China's exit may leave India isolated on climate
The first signs of a break up in the G77 plus China grouping in the climate negotiations emerged at the Obama sponsored 20-country Major economies
Forum in Washington with South Korea breaking away from the developing and poor country block. The meeting called by the US to find a breakthrough in the climate talks saw the first palpable evidence that one of the most influential blocks with a a de-facto veto at the negotiations, could crack before or during the Copenhagen round in December 2009. Blog: Cong, BJP, Left and climate change The block led by India, China, Brazil and South Africa besides other countries has consistently thwarted attempts by the industrialized nations to dictate terms to the UN framework convention on climate change. It has played a singular role in ensuring that emerging and developing economies are not forced to take on economy-hurting emission reductions by groups like the EU or countries such as US, Japan and Australia. But at the MEF, South Korea broke away from the consensus within the G77 and offered to open its domestic actions to reduce emissions to international scrutiny -- a move that indirectly implied quantified targets to reduce emissions under international vigil. At the meeting, where US demanded that it be not asked to reduce emissions too quickly to begin with in the face of an economic recession, the pressure being built on other nations was visible, sources told TOI. The sources said that China too made ambiguous noises about such greenhouse gas reductions commitments -- something it and India have a well crafted and long standing coordinated position against. But it remained unclear, the sources said, if China was actually diverting from its earlier positions or if the Chinese stance was `lost in translation'. Indian officials, however, pointed out that the latest Chinese submissions to the UNFCCC -- the formal negotiating forum -- remained closely aligned to the Indian ones and stuck to the basic demands that G77 plus China has made for long -- funds and technologies to undertake a clean economic pathway and high emission reduction targets for industrialized countries responsible for the accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere. One source in the Indian climate team pointed out that in earlier rounds of negotiations too symptoms of a crack in G77 had emerged. "The economies of many countries are dependent on or have strong linkages to industrialized countries. Within the G77 umbrella, there are differences that some industrialized countries and lobbies are trying to exploit," he said. A close observer of the negotiations from India pointed out that, as in all international negotiations, other economic interests could be used as leverage against more vulnerable nations of the G77 block and such `diplomatic and economic handle' would be employed with greater vigour as climate negotiations in December at Copenhagen near.
Forum in Washington with South Korea breaking away from the developing and poor country block. The meeting called by the US to find a breakthrough in the climate talks saw the first palpable evidence that one of the most influential blocks with a a de-facto veto at the negotiations, could crack before or during the Copenhagen round in December 2009. Blog: Cong, BJP, Left and climate change The block led by India, China, Brazil and South Africa besides other countries has consistently thwarted attempts by the industrialized nations to dictate terms to the UN framework convention on climate change. It has played a singular role in ensuring that emerging and developing economies are not forced to take on economy-hurting emission reductions by groups like the EU or countries such as US, Japan and Australia. But at the MEF, South Korea broke away from the consensus within the G77 and offered to open its domestic actions to reduce emissions to international scrutiny -- a move that indirectly implied quantified targets to reduce emissions under international vigil. At the meeting, where US demanded that it be not asked to reduce emissions too quickly to begin with in the face of an economic recession, the pressure being built on other nations was visible, sources told TOI. The sources said that China too made ambiguous noises about such greenhouse gas reductions commitments -- something it and India have a well crafted and long standing coordinated position against. But it remained unclear, the sources said, if China was actually diverting from its earlier positions or if the Chinese stance was `lost in translation'. Indian officials, however, pointed out that the latest Chinese submissions to the UNFCCC -- the formal negotiating forum -- remained closely aligned to the Indian ones and stuck to the basic demands that G77 plus China has made for long -- funds and technologies to undertake a clean economic pathway and high emission reduction targets for industrialized countries responsible for the accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere. One source in the Indian climate team pointed out that in earlier rounds of negotiations too symptoms of a crack in G77 had emerged. "The economies of many countries are dependent on or have strong linkages to industrialized countries. Within the G77 umbrella, there are differences that some industrialized countries and lobbies are trying to exploit," he said. A close observer of the negotiations from India pointed out that, as in all international negotiations, other economic interests could be used as leverage against more vulnerable nations of the G77 block and such `diplomatic and economic handle' would be employed with greater vigour as climate negotiations in December at Copenhagen near.
China and India show rapid increase in global warming emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to rise with a mix of old and new polluters, according to the Little Green Data Book 2006, launched today on the occasion of the Fourteenth Session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD-14). An annual publication of the World Bank, according to this year's edition, CO2 emissions worldwide have now topped 24 billion metric tons (the most recent comprehensive data are for 2002), an increase of 15 percent compared to the 1992 levels.
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The rapidly expanding economies of China and India are showing a swift increase in CO2 emissions. China, which is already the second largest polluter, has increased its emissions by 33 percent between 1992 and 2002, while India's emissions have grown 57 percent in the same period. This trend will likely continue as economic activity grows. Such an increase in emissions has taken place despite improvements in energy efficiency by China in the last decade. In 1992, a dollar of GDP was associated with the production of 4.8Kg of CO2. In 2002, every dollar of GDP was associated with 2.5Kg of CO2. Still, CO2 emissions stem mainly from rich countries, with the United States contributing 24 percent of total emissions and the countries of the European Monetary Union contributing 10 percent. But the share of developing country contributions to CO2 emissions is rapidly increasing. From 2000 to 2002, global CO2 emissions increased by 2.5 percent annually, and about two-thirds of this increase came from low and middle income countries. According to Steen Jorgensen, Acting Vice-President for Sustainable Development at the World Bank, "This reality shows us that we need to find creative ways to engage all major economies of the world to solve a global problem such as climate change. The recently launched Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development is an attempt by the World Bank to contribute in this direction."
Jorgensen was referring to a new approach — the Clean Energy & Development: Towards an Investment Framework — recently endorsed by the Governors of the World Bank designed to boost energy investments while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. "All countries are vulnerable to climate change," says Warren Evans, Environment Director, World Bank, "but the poorest countries are the most exposed, and have the least means to adapt to it. Climate change may hamper efforts to reduce poverty in agriculture-dependent countries in Africa and low-lying coastal areas. Climate proofing development initiatives is an urgent need in order to avoid human disasters." CO2 emissions stem mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. The energy sector accounts for about 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and the agricultural sector for most of the remaining 20 percent (source: Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework, the World Bank, April 23, 2006). "Coal is by far the main source of energy for electricity generation," says Jamal Saghir, Director Energy & Water, World Bank. "The relevance of coal has increased over time, particularly in low-income countries where the share of electricity generated by coal has shifted from 41 percent in 1990 to 46 percent in 2003. In China, the use of coal has increased from 71 percent in 1990 to 79 percent in 2003. In India, the increment has been from 65 percent to 68 percent." Energy use per capita is highest in rich countries, which consume on average 11 times more energy per person than low income countries. High income countries in total use 51 percent of the world's energy production, followed by East Asia and Pacific, 18 percent, and Europe and Central Asia, 13 percent. While rich countries have developed modern sources of energy, wood fuels are still the primary source of energy for approximately 2 billion people in poor countries. Solid biomass is associated with respiratory problems caused by indoor smoke. Most of the victims are infants, children, and women from poor rural families. Acute respiratory infections in children and chronic pulmonary disease in women are a common feature. Indoor smoke accounts for 3.6 percent of the burden of disease in developing countries with high mortality, following the lack of water supply and sanitation which accounts for 5.5 percent of death and illness. The data shows very little progress in the past 10 years. In low income countries, the use of biomass products and waste as a percent of total energy use has gone from 55 percent in 1992 to 49 percent in 2003. At the same time, livelihoods of the rural poor depend heavily on the ecosystem capacity to provide a sustained source of energy, and in some regions fuel wood crises may take place in the next decade with subsequent effects on ecosystems. Countries rich in fossil energy resources on an unsustainable trajectory
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Are countries saving enough for future growth? The Little Green Data Book shows that, by and large, countries with large endowments of fossil energy resources choose to consume rather than to invest the returns generated by energy resources. Sub-soil wealth is not being transformed into assets necessary to sustain growth. Countries such as Angola, Nigeria, and Venezuela, that enjoy high energy returns, have negative saving rates. In these countries, total wealth — the sum of man-made, natural, and human capital — is declining, posing serious risk on the sustainability of future growth rates. A negative savings rate implies that welfare will decline at some point in the future as a result of decisions made today. Sustainability in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa appears very low once traditional savings measures are adjusted to take into account the loss of natural capital. By contrast, East Asian economies, such as China and the Philippines, enjoy very high savings rates. For these countries, asset accumulation is a precondition for future growth. Commenting on how the LGDB is developed, Eric Swanson, Program Manager for global monitoring in the World Bank's Development Data Group, says that, "The Little Green Data Book is the World Bank's comprehensive guide to environmental statistics. With data for 48 indicators in 222 countries, territories, and regions, it provides a statistical portrait of the state of the world and the impact of human activity." The Little Green Data Book draws on the World Bank's recently released World Development Indicators database and makes key development indicators widely available to a global audience.
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The rapidly expanding economies of China and India are showing a swift increase in CO2 emissions. China, which is already the second largest polluter, has increased its emissions by 33 percent between 1992 and 2002, while India's emissions have grown 57 percent in the same period. This trend will likely continue as economic activity grows. Such an increase in emissions has taken place despite improvements in energy efficiency by China in the last decade. In 1992, a dollar of GDP was associated with the production of 4.8Kg of CO2. In 2002, every dollar of GDP was associated with 2.5Kg of CO2. Still, CO2 emissions stem mainly from rich countries, with the United States contributing 24 percent of total emissions and the countries of the European Monetary Union contributing 10 percent. But the share of developing country contributions to CO2 emissions is rapidly increasing. From 2000 to 2002, global CO2 emissions increased by 2.5 percent annually, and about two-thirds of this increase came from low and middle income countries. According to Steen Jorgensen, Acting Vice-President for Sustainable Development at the World Bank, "This reality shows us that we need to find creative ways to engage all major economies of the world to solve a global problem such as climate change. The recently launched Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development is an attempt by the World Bank to contribute in this direction."
Jorgensen was referring to a new approach — the Clean Energy & Development: Towards an Investment Framework — recently endorsed by the Governors of the World Bank designed to boost energy investments while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. "All countries are vulnerable to climate change," says Warren Evans, Environment Director, World Bank, "but the poorest countries are the most exposed, and have the least means to adapt to it. Climate change may hamper efforts to reduce poverty in agriculture-dependent countries in Africa and low-lying coastal areas. Climate proofing development initiatives is an urgent need in order to avoid human disasters." CO2 emissions stem mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. The energy sector accounts for about 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and the agricultural sector for most of the remaining 20 percent (source: Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework, the World Bank, April 23, 2006). "Coal is by far the main source of energy for electricity generation," says Jamal Saghir, Director Energy & Water, World Bank. "The relevance of coal has increased over time, particularly in low-income countries where the share of electricity generated by coal has shifted from 41 percent in 1990 to 46 percent in 2003. In China, the use of coal has increased from 71 percent in 1990 to 79 percent in 2003. In India, the increment has been from 65 percent to 68 percent." Energy use per capita is highest in rich countries, which consume on average 11 times more energy per person than low income countries. High income countries in total use 51 percent of the world's energy production, followed by East Asia and Pacific, 18 percent, and Europe and Central Asia, 13 percent. While rich countries have developed modern sources of energy, wood fuels are still the primary source of energy for approximately 2 billion people in poor countries. Solid biomass is associated with respiratory problems caused by indoor smoke. Most of the victims are infants, children, and women from poor rural families. Acute respiratory infections in children and chronic pulmonary disease in women are a common feature. Indoor smoke accounts for 3.6 percent of the burden of disease in developing countries with high mortality, following the lack of water supply and sanitation which accounts for 5.5 percent of death and illness. The data shows very little progress in the past 10 years. In low income countries, the use of biomass products and waste as a percent of total energy use has gone from 55 percent in 1992 to 49 percent in 2003. At the same time, livelihoods of the rural poor depend heavily on the ecosystem capacity to provide a sustained source of energy, and in some regions fuel wood crises may take place in the next decade with subsequent effects on ecosystems. Countries rich in fossil energy resources on an unsustainable trajectory
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Are countries saving enough for future growth? The Little Green Data Book shows that, by and large, countries with large endowments of fossil energy resources choose to consume rather than to invest the returns generated by energy resources. Sub-soil wealth is not being transformed into assets necessary to sustain growth. Countries such as Angola, Nigeria, and Venezuela, that enjoy high energy returns, have negative saving rates. In these countries, total wealth — the sum of man-made, natural, and human capital — is declining, posing serious risk on the sustainability of future growth rates. A negative savings rate implies that welfare will decline at some point in the future as a result of decisions made today. Sustainability in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa appears very low once traditional savings measures are adjusted to take into account the loss of natural capital. By contrast, East Asian economies, such as China and the Philippines, enjoy very high savings rates. For these countries, asset accumulation is a precondition for future growth. Commenting on how the LGDB is developed, Eric Swanson, Program Manager for global monitoring in the World Bank's Development Data Group, says that, "The Little Green Data Book is the World Bank's comprehensive guide to environmental statistics. With data for 48 indicators in 222 countries, territories, and regions, it provides a statistical portrait of the state of the world and the impact of human activity." The Little Green Data Book draws on the World Bank's recently released World Development Indicators database and makes key development indicators widely available to a global audience.
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 °C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages1, 2. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 °C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 °C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO2 emissions over 2000–50 to 1,000 Gt CO2 yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 °C—and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO2 yields a 50% probability—given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000–06 CO2 emissions3 were 234 Gt CO2, less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves4, 5, 6 can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués7 envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12–45% probability of exceeding 2 °C—assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 °C rises to 53–87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.
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