Thursday, July 2, 2009

Handful of players seen ruling the solar roost

Solar panel makers from California to China are gearing up to capture a slice of the growing U.S. market for utility-scale solar power plants, but just a handful of players are expected to snap up most of the business in the coming years.
U.S. players First Solar Inc and SunPower Corp and China's Suntech Power Holdings are widely expected to be the primary winners of large photovoltaic solar projects in the United States in the next few years, with the first two already firmly entrenched in the market.
"I don't think the utility landscape is going to become as competitive as the commercial market, because the barriers to entry are much higher," said Barclays Capital analyst Vishal Shah. "It takes a long time to prove your technology to the utility so they can be comfortable. So from that standpoint it limits the competition only to a handful of players."
For much of the last two years, investors have been banking on an eventual boom in solar power plants in the United States due to increased concerns about climate change that have ushered in generous government incentives for clean energy. That optimism has only intensified in recent months despite a weak global economy and tight credit markets that have hampered development of green power projects this year.
Efforts by the Obama administration to speed development of renewable energy, state mandates for renewable power and a dramatic drop in the cost of solar panels mean "the U.S. market could potentially (and finally) become 'the promised land' that investors have been waiting for since late 2007," FBR Capital Markets analyst Mehdi Hosseini said in a June research note.
But cashing in, at least in terms of securing the biggest projects, may be a tough sell for all but a select few.
With power plant-sized solar projects costing roughly $1 billion to build, according to Shah, developers and utilities are not willing to take chances on emerging technologies and are even skittish about snapping up panels from the flood of new Chinese manufacturers, despite their rock-bottom prices.
"There is a perception of a quality difference" between U.S. and Chinese panels, said Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Milunovich, who added that the U.S. utility market is shaping up to be a race between First Solar, SunPower and Suntech.
"It will be a fairly oligopolistic market," he said.
SUPPORTING THE WARRANTY
The financial health of panel suppliers is more important than ever, one utility executive said, given the global recession that has made even solar companies struggle to stay profitable.
Utilities have to be sure about not just the quality of the panels and their track record, but "the ability of the manufacturer to support their product during the warranty period" of 10 to 20 years, said Southern California Edison's director of generation planning and strategy, Mark Nelson.
For that reason, First Solar and SunPower have snapped up a string of contracts over the last few years, mostly in California, and are by far the biggest photovoltaic players in the utility market today.
The Golden State's utilities, including PG&E Corp's Pacific Gas & Electric, Edison International's Southern California Edison and Sempra Energy's San Diego Gas & Electric, are required to obtain 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2010, and 33 percent by 2020.
First Solar, whose low-cost panels are made from cadmium telluride, is widely considered the market leader. Milunovich estimates that the company enjoys half the solar backlog in the U.S. utility market

But with recent steep declines in the cost of polysilicon, the raw material in traditional solar panels, silicon-based panels -- including those made by Suntech and SunPower -- are now more competitive with First Solar's products.
Southern California Edison, which has contracted First Solar to build the first two megawatts of its 250-megawatt rooftop solar program, may seek more suppliers for the rest of the project, Nelson said, depending on the bidding process.
SunPower's panels, though not the cheapest, are much in demand because they are most efficient at transforming sunlight into energy. The San Jose, California, company also benefits from having recognized the market potential early on and proven its technology to potential utility customers over a number of years, Shah said.
No. 1 Chinese panel maker Suntech, however, is nipping at the heels of its U.S. rivals and does not face the same quality concerns as many of its Chinese peers.
"As Suntech moves up I don't think there is going to be any difference there," Milunovich said. "They are going to be competitive."
To establish itself in the U.S. utility market, Suntech last year formed a joint venture called Gemini Solar Development Company LLC with solar developer Renewable Ventures, which was acquired by privately held Spanish power producer Fotowatio in March.
So far the group has secured a 30-megawatt project for Texas municipal utility Austin Energy, and Suntech is seeking to build a U.S. manufacturing plant ahead of an anticipated boom in the utility market.
Chinese panel maker Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd is also expected to make some inroads into the U.S. market thanks to a new supply deal with solar developer AES Solar, a joint venture between power producer AES Corp and private equity firm Riverstone Holdings LLC.

New York inches closer to offshore wind farm

Government agencies and power companies said on Wednesday they are gauging interest from developers and manufacturers about building a wind farm about 13 miles off the New York city coast that could end up being the largest such project in the United States.
The Long Island Power Authority, the New York Power Authority, other agencies and Consolidated Edison Inc hope to build the 350 megawatt wind farm off the Rockaway Peninsula in the Atlantic.
Potentially, the project could be expanded to 700 MW, giving it a shot of being the biggest U.S. offshore wind farm. One megawatt powers about 1,000 homes in New York, but wind does not blow all of the time.
Taking stock of the interest of developers is a precursor to issuing a request for proposal for the project which is anticipated for release by the end of the year, the collaboration said.
"There clearly is growing interest in this proposal by many parties," Kevin Burke, chairman and CEO of Con Edison, said in a release.
"If the technical, environmental, economic and social challenges can be met, and we have the support of government, energy and environmental leaders, I am confident this project will be built and produce enormous benefits for our region," he said.
The group did not offer a price estimate for the project, but according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a work that size would cost about $1.35 billion to $2.7 billion.
Also on Wednesday, New York's state power authority said it had selected five firms to study the possibility of building an offshore wind farm on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in western New York.
Such projects are consistent with New York Gov. David Paterson's "45 by 15" program, which establishes the goal for the state to meet 45 percent of its electricity needs through energy efficiency and renewable sources by 2015.
The Rockaway project would not be the first time a large wind farm was planned in the region.
The LIPA proposed the construction of a 40-turbine wind farm that would have produced 140 MW of energy off the shore of Jones Beach on the south shore of Long Island. The project was canceled in 2007 after estimates it would cost $800 million, more than double the initial estimate.

Green stocks flourish despite demand concerns

While green shoots of economic recovery are appearing only tentatively, green stocks are showing no such hesitation.
Since March, clean energy stocks have put together a mighty rally, outpacing the U.S. equities market as a whole. While some see it as a harbinger of increased demand for companies providing cleaner sources of energy, others say it merely reflects the benefit of being on the right side of political trends, thanks to initiatives from China, the United States and other countries.
Three major indexes tracking green energy companies have risen sharply of late. The U.S.-only Wilderhill Clean Energy Index, comprising 51 companies, is up 72 percent since a March 9 low. Its global counterpart, the Wilderhill New Energy Global Index, which tracks 88 companies in 21 countries, is up 66 percent in the same period.
The CleanTech Index, which tracks a broader group, including industries like sustainable agriculture, is up 57 percent. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 35 percent since hitting a 12-year low on March 9.
Analysts see some of the rally as a corrective recovery after green stocks took a drubbing last year. Hammered by the drop in the price of oil and the credit freeze, the Wilderhill indexes plunged 70 percent, and the Cleantech Index 50 percent, in 2008. The indexes are still off 2007 peaks.
The stocks in question tend to be volatile small-cap and mid-cap names, and so it isn't rare for stocks to move 20 percent in a day -- the biggest company in the domestic Wilderhill index is Applied Materials Inc, worth $14 billion. The stocks are also not widely followed by Wall Street research, causing some swings in pricing.
"When the tape is down one percent, the group is down three percent," says Rob Stone, an analyst at Cowen and Co in Boston.
Stone is bullish on solar stocks, thanks to plenty of initiatives likely to drive demand.
The climate change bill passed by the U.S. House a week ago and now being considered by the Senate could be a boost to all renewables. Even without that, January's U.S. stimulus package allotted $37 billion to clean technology companies, money that should start to flow by the fall.
Large-scale solar power plants are expected to begin construction in coming years in the United States, though the bigger companies, such as First Solar Inc and SunPower Corp, are likely to get most of the business.
China, meanwhile, is set to announce a national feed-in tariff this year that would open a vast market to providers. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese solar companies like Yingli Green Energy Holding Co and Trina Solar Ltd have surged in anticipation.
PRICING PRESSURES
Still, some say the green stocks rally is a house built on the shifting sands of political chance.
"Rather than being judged by consumer preference, these technologies are dependent on temporary political majorities for their viability," says Robert Bradley Jr., chief executive of the Institute of Energy Research, a conservative non-profit.
Cost has also been an issue. Solar is still more expensive than fossil fuels, though Stone points out that polysilicon, the main raw material in photovoltaic solar panels, was trading at $400 a kilogram ($180 a pound) a year ago, and is now $60 a kilogram.

Similarly, the price of solar cells has dropped by about half in the last year as a result of reduced demand and a glut of supply. Analysts eventually hope solar can compete with fossil fuels as an energy source. Prudential Financial has just launched a green commodity index tracking prices of biofuels and other raw materials.
The recession itself is keeping some cautious, and the sharp declines in these stocks in 2008 suggests that investors still cast a fickle eye toward these names. As the industry grows, that belief should change.
"We're in the bullish camp on long-term solar potential," said Matt Schultz, analyst at Battle Road Research of Waltham, Massachusetts.
"Right now, it is in the transition period from growth story to a maturing industry made up of long-term businesses not dependent on government largesse."

Preliminary notification on sanctuary issued

The government has issued gazette notification declaring its intention to constitute the proposed Malabar Wildlife Sanctuary. The sanctuary will consist of 7,421.50 hectares in Chakkittapara and Chembanoda villages of Koyilandy taluk in Kozhikode district. These include the reserve forests of Pannikottoor and Kakkayam and vested forests of Karampara Mala and Olathukki Malavaram and Sankaranpuzha, Athikode and the water-spread area of the Kakkayam reservoir. Out of about 2,200 hectares of Pannikottoor forests, about 400 had been excluded from the sanctuary. Of that, about 115 hectares had been identified for the proposed Tiger Safari Park while 94 hectares had been leased out to the Indian Institute of Spices Research. The balance is fragmented areas. From the vested forests, nearly 557 hectares of ecologically fragile lands have been excluded as disputes over their takeover remain to be settled. The notification said that the richness of biodiversity and conservational significance of the proposed sanctuary area had been identified by various agencies. So, the government found it necessary to declare the area as a wildlife sanctuary for protecting the ecological, faunal, floral, geo-morphological and natural wealth and ensuring its long-term conservation. Since the rights over the said reserve forests and vested forests were yet to be settled, the government had decided to notify the proposed sanctuary under sub-section (1) of Section 18 of the Wildlife (Protection) Act. (This enables the Collector to settle the claims within the area intended to be declared as a sanctuary). Preliminary ecological studies of the forests of Kakkayam by the Malabar Natural History Society have shown that the area was rich in diversity of flora and fauna. Topographically, the area is situated in a plateau rugged with steep hills of the Western Ghats, which suddenly rises from 50 metres to 1,600 metres within the reserve. It was once a good patch of wet evergreen forest, fragmented later by the construction of the Kuttiyadi hydro-electric project, plantations and human settlements. Now, it is the only evergreen patch left in Kozhikode district. Once the area was contiguous with the forests of the Brahmagiri Hills. The forests form the catchments of the Kakkayam and Peruvannamoozhi reservoirs. More than 40 species of mammals have been recorded from the reserve, including three endemic to the Western Ghats. Brown Palm Civet, one of the rarely recorded civet species of the Western Ghats, occurs in the area besides elephants, a small population of lion-tailed macaques and other animals. The area also harbours more than 110 species of birds, including eight endemics, six restricted range species and two globally threatened species (Kerala laughing thrush and Wayanad laughing thrush). It is also the habitat of king cobra, python and many rare and endemic amphibian species. Endangered game fish Mahseer has also been reported from there. In addition 94 species of butterflies (including 14 endemics) and 24 species of dragon flies have been recorded in the region.
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Kerala - General Environment

Kerala State is situated between 8 o 8' and 18 o 48' North latitude and 74 o 4' to 77 o 50' East longitude, along the windward side of the Western Ghats of Indian Peninsula . The State is located in the tropical region of Indian Peninsula and extends to an area of about 38863 km 2 , which accounts for about 1. 2 per cent of the total geographical area of the country. The State is bordered by Tamil Nadu State on its South and part of the East, Karnataka State on the North and part of the East, the Lakshadweep Sea on the West and the Indian Ocean along the South. The State has a total coastline of about 560 km and from sea level it rises to about 2694 m above msl.
Because of the location of the State along the windward side of the Western Ghats , it receives an average yearly rainfall of about 3000 mm, and the precipitations in the South-West and North-East Monsoon period, may go even up to 5000 mm, especially in the higher altitudes of Wayanad and Idukki plateaus. The average temperature of the State at 1ow and medium elevations ranging between 0-700 m is about 23 o C. Between 700 - 1400 m above msl, the temperature fluctuates between 16 and 23 o C and in the high altitude areas along the crests of the Western Ghats , it is about 15 o C during the coldest months. Above 1400 m elevation, the average temperature is even less, ranging from 13.5 to 16 o C, and it is in this zone that the shola forests, with similarities in species representation with the temperate Himalayan forests, are distributed in the State.
Physiographically, the terrain has three natural regions namely, lowlands, midland, highlands. A physiographic classification, identified mainly in terms of broad geomorphic surfaces and altitudinal characteristics, is also used in the parlance of geographers (CESS, 1984). It has five physiographic zones, namely, high ranges with elevation above 600 m, foothill zone between 300 to 600 m, upland regions between 100 - 300 m, midland between 20 - 100 m and coastal areas and low land below an altitude of 20 m.
Kerala has 44 perennial rivers, of which three are East flowing and the remaining 41 are emptied into the Lakshadweep Sea , along the western side of the State . Rivers are generally swift flowing having very steep gradients in their higher reaches. Absence of delta formation is characteristic of Kerala rivers. The general drainage pattern of these rivers is dendritic, although at places trellis, sub-parallel and radial occur. The segments of river courses are nearly straight, indicating structural control, coinciding with the prominent lineament directions (NW-SE and NE-SW). As per national norm (Rao, 1979), there are no major rivers in Kerala. The four medium rivers, namely Chaliyar, Bharathapuzha, Periyar and Pamba have a total drainage area of only 8250 km 2 with length 169 km, 209 km, 244 km and 176 km respectively. The length of rest of the rivers varies from 16 km to 130 km, with an average length of 62 km and total drainage area of 19,485 km 2 . The river flow is modulated by about 30 reservoirs, mostly located in highlands (KSLUB, 2002; CWRDM, 1995). There are two fresh water lakes in the State namely the Pookot and Sasthamkottah. The State is also having a total of 46.13 km 2 of estuaries and backwaters. The important backwaters are Vembanad and Ashtamudi lakes
Ten broad groups of soils based on morphological features and physico-chemical properties have been identified in Kerala (Anon, 1978). They are red soil, laterite soil, coastal alluvial soil, riverine alluvial soil, grayish Onattukara soil, brown hydromorphic soil, hydromorphic saline soil, acid saline soil, black soil and forest soil.
The major forest types represented in the State (Champion and Seth, 1968) include the dry deciduous, moist deciduous, semievergreen, evergreen and shola forests . Within these four major forest types are also several subtypes and derivatives, differing in species composition and vegetation characteristics
Almost 78 per cent of the total land area of the State is under agriculture and dwelling, and the remaining 22 per cent of the land is under forests and forest plantations. Quite obviously, the pristine status of nature is better protected only in a limited area, and that too in the higher altitudes, whereas, most of the remaining area of the State is subjected to degradation and transformations of various types

Preserve environment: Students

Three hundred students of S.D. Senior Secondary School marched through the city streets here today to mark the World Earth Environment Day - 1999. The celebrations were organised in collaboration with the Children's Alliance for Protection of the Environment (CAPE). They carried placards proclaiming Save the ozone layer, Save humanity.
Union Ministry of Environment and Forests Joint Director K.K. Garg flagged off the march which was led by school principal Vishwa Bandhu and environment teacher Ajay Sharma. Addressing the marchers, Environment Society of India president S.K. Sharma stressed traditional practices in environmental conservation. The school student's have pledged to take care of some 200 saplings planted by CAPE.
In similar celebrations, the Green Environment Club, Chandigarh, organised an awareness programme on the theme Keep our water sources clean at the premises of the Government Central Crafts Institute For Women. Prof S.C. Jain of Panjab University's Department of Chemical Engineering, spoke on the occasion. He stressed the need to preserve and protect water resources and urged people not to dump garbage, filth and human waste in water. UT Technical Education Director S.K.Aggarwal also spoke. S.K. Sharma gave away prizes to the winners in various competitions relating to World Earth Environment Day. A programme of songs and dances was presented.
The National Service Scheme, Punjab University, and the Government College for Girls, Sector 11, also jointly organised celebrations of the ``World Earth Day'' at Janta Colony, Sector 25 this morning. The celebrations were attended by a number of social workers, community leaders, teachers and NSS volunteers. Dr C.L. Narang, Programme Coordinator, PU, stated that due to ecological imbalances there is a threat of natural calamities in the near future.
Vijay Laxmi, principal of the GCG, said that man had made a blunder in using nature for his vested interests

Industry must contribute to safe environment: Experts

Industry cannot grow at the expense of environment. This was the unanimous opinion of experts at a seminar on `Corporate Environment Initiatives', organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), in association with the United States Information Services (USIS) and USAID, here today.
Douglas Weinfiled, environmental director, Manufacturers Alliance, USA, focused on short and long term opportunities for gaining financial benefits from environmental management. He presented various case studies, mainly from among the Fortune 500 companies, which clearly illustrated how a company could do well financially by addressing environmental concerns.
He added that environmental management systems were similar to any other system and that every organisation must allocate adequate resources to achieve its environmental goals.
Michael A. Toman, another expert from Washington, said that diffusion of environment-friendly technology was the key to improving corporate environmental performance. Clean technology was fundamentally an economic and social phenomenon, not merely a matter of engineering, he added. However, it was essential to lower the market barriers, which were hindering the penetration of new technologies, he added.