Saturday, August 8, 2009

Interest in organic food on the rise in China

Unlike most farms in China, no heaps of blackened sewage sludge are piled on the fields at the Green Cow farm. No workers spray pesticides from pumps strapped to their backs. No animals are in quarantine.

An oasis in a Beijing suburb, the organic farm's modest 6 acres boast pepper and tomato plants, fields of corn and wheat, and sunflower patches that pop up in between. Two rotund cows chomp on grasses; under a grove of fruit trees, three young pigs slurp water.

Restaurateur and environmentalist Lejen Chen started Green Cow with her husband in 2004, fearful of the pesticides, chemical fertilizers and sewage sludge used in the cultivation of most domestic produce.

In China, the organic food movement is growing steadily, led by Chen and a small, dedicated group of like-minded farmers. It's a battle in a country of recurring food scares, loosely enforced regulations and skepticism about paying more for produce that looks the same as regular market fare. But interest in natural food is on the rise.

"The Chinese people are very aware that their food is rubbish," said Romuald Pieters, director of Sustainable Development & Agriculture Creation, a consulting firm operating in China, where the shock of last year's contaminated-milk scandal still stings.

Conforming to organic standards when you have no control over neighbors' practices, or what rains down on you, is difficult. But on paper, China's organic farming standards are strict enough, Chen says.

The problem, she says, is making sure that farmers stick to those standards, and ensuring that there are enough authorities to adequately monitor producers who claim their food is organic -- a tall order in a country where toxic, heavy-metal-filled sewage sludge is the cheapest, most easily accessible fertilizer around.

Though one might wonder what could be more organic than excrement, medical waste and factory runoff also make their way into sewer systems. Not limited to China, the use of toxic sludge fertilizer is a widespread problem, seen in the U.S. and elsewhere.

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture certifies organic products, and its popular "Green Food" label, which designates food produced with restricted amounts of agricultural chemicals, can be seen on products such as fruit, noodles, tea and even beer. The ministry also labels genetically modified food, something the United States does not do.

Though even prosperous locals often pride themselves on thriftiness, in light of recent food scares many are seeking out organic products from suppliers they can trust.

Perhaps the epitome of this mentality is Chen's Community-Supported Agriculture program. Fifteen families receive baskets of fresh seasonal vegetables, and have access to the Green Cow farm, about 20 miles from the center of Beijing, as a leisure spot.

The privilege of a year's involvement with the program costs roughly $45 a week, and families are also expected to help out with chores such as weeding and harvesting at least three times a year. The farm's crops go to program participants, and are also used to supply Chen's New York-style diner nearby.

"It's about proximity and confidence," Pieters said. "You know the person farming, you know how they produce, and you're ready to pay more for these high-quality vegetables."

Chen, who was born in Taiwan to southern Chinese parents and raised in Brooklyn, was not the only one to see a demand for healthy, safe food. Taiwanese entrepreneur Terry Yu runs Lohao City, a successful health-food chain store with seven locations in Beijing and two in Shenzhen.

Yu, a former IT specialist, opened his first shop in 2006, stocking its produce bins exclusively with organic fruit and vegetables from his own ranch. Now Yu has three organic farms around Beijing, which he invites customers to inspect at any time -- an inspiring move in an industry where customer trust is a deciding factor.

"The biggest problem in the Chinese food industry," Yu said, "is that customers don't trust the chain, and the chain doesn't trust its supplier -- no one trusts anyone."

Large-scale supermarkets such as the popular French chain Carrefour suspend informational posters over their organic produce, tracing the vegetables' journey from farm to store. Staff members are stationed alongside to help patrons pick the choicest items and answer any questions.

Chen believes that certifications such as the "Green Food" label are helping foster excitement about eating natural food. Unfortunately, she notes, many still confuse "green," the low-chemical designation, with organic.

Although shoppers' enthusiasm may run high, organic agriculture will need to expand, and become more accessible, before being embraced by the skeptical penny-pincher.

"There's just not enough organic food in China right now" to go around, Chen said. "And people aren't growing it."

In-vitro meat: Would lab-burgers be better for us and the planet

A pioneering group of scientists are working to grow real animal protein in the laboratory, which they not only claim is better for animal welfare, but actually healthier, both for people and the planet. It may sound like science fiction, but this technology to create in-vitro meat could be changing global diets within ten years.

"Cultured meat would have a lot of advantages," said Jason Matheny of research group New Harvest. "We could precisely control the amount of fat in meat. We could make ground beef with an ideal fatty acid ratio -- a hamburger that prevents heart attacks instead of causing them."

But it isn't just the possibility of creating designer ground beef with the fat profile of salmon that drives Matheny's work. Meat and livestock farming is also the source of many human diseases, which he claims would be far less common when the product is raised in laboratory conditions.

"We could reduce the risks of diseases like swine flu, avian flu, 'mad cow disease', or contamination from Salmonella," he told CNN. "We could produce meat in sterile conditions that are impossible in conventional animal farms and slaughterhouses. And when we grow only the meat we can eat, it's more efficient. There's no need to grow the whole animal and lose 75 to 95 percent of what we feed it."



Conventional meat production is also hard on the environment. The contribution of livestock to climate change was recently highlighted by the United Nations' report, "Livestock's Long Shadow", while groups such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have demonstrated how soy farming for animal feed contributes to the destruction of the Amazon.

In this context Matheny believes his project could significantly cut the environmental impact of meat production -- using much less water and producing far fewer greenhouse gases.

"We could reduce the environmental footprint of meat, which currently contributes more to global warming than the entire transportation sector," says Matheny.

Preliminary results from a study by Hanna Tuomisto, at the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, suggest that cultured meat would reduce the carbon emissions of meat production by more than 80 percent.

Making cultured meat

In-vitro meat is made from samples of animals conventionally slaughtered. For example, "pork" is made from pig ovaries retrieved from slaughterhouses, which are fertilized with pig semen, transforming them into embryos. They are then placed in a nutrient solution, where they grow and develop.

It's a long way from the popular image of animals wandering round the farmyard in the sunshine, but then so is modern intensive farming. The factor that could take the research from the lab to the store and into refrigerators around the world is its remarkable commercial potential.

According to New Harvest, meat is already estimated to be a $1 trillion global market, and demand is expected to double by 2050. With concerns about health, animal welfare and the environment growing the appeal of in vitro meat is obvious.

Watch more

Watch Eco Solutions interview with Jason Matheny, the research scientist for in-vitro meat, and more about meat's impact on the environment on CNN International at 7pm ET on Sunday, August 9.

Matheny told CNN that venture capitalists Kleiner Perkins have shown an interest in his technology, while Stegman, a sausage subsidiary of food giant Sara Lee, is a partner. The Netherlands' Government has also invested around $4 million in Dutch research into in-vitro meat production.

But it isn't just the suits who are circling with their checkbooks out -- campaign group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) have announced a $1 million prize for the first commercially viable in vitro chicken product. The Humane Society of the United States has also been supportive.

"We think that a technology to produce cultured ground meats -- burgers, sausages, nuggets, and so forth -- could be commercialized within ten years," said Matheny.

"As with most technologies, successive generations should improve in price, quality, and acceptance. We don't think that matching the taste and texture of ground meats will be very difficult. Both conventional and cultured meat is made of muscle tissue. And conventional ground meat is typically highly processed. Chicken nuggets for instance, are made of something called 'meat slurry' -- it would be hard not to do better!"

Public attitude

But the public doesn't always blindly buy what companies believe they should, and acceptance of what is a very radical proposition certainly isn't a foregone conclusion. There are bound to be claims of "Frankenfoods", and reaction against the work.

"Social acceptance isn't guaranteed, but we all want meat that's safer and healthier," he said. "If cultured meat looks, tastes, and costs the same as regular meat, then I think acceptance will be high. The more we learn about the health and environmental impact of conventional meat, the more cultured meat looks like a good alternative."

One obvious touchstone for how in-vitro-meat will be received by the public is perhaps the way GM crops were -- or were not - accepted around the world, something that Matheny draws encouragement from.

"What's interesting about the GM issue is that it has been controversial in some places, but is a non-issue for most consumers," he said.

"Most Americans are regularly eating GM foods. In any case, it's not necessarily the case that cultured meat would involve GM foods.

"We all want meat that's safer and healthier. If cultured meat looks, tastes, and costs the same as regular meat, then do we care that it's produced in a steel tank, rather than in an animal farm?

"Take hydroponic vegetables. We like the idea that they're produced in sterile water instead of dirt and manure. It's true that in-vitro meat isn't natural. Nor for that matter are hydroponic vegetables, or bread, or cheese, or wine. Raising 10,000 chickens indoors and pumping them full of drugs isn't natural, either, and it isn't healthy or safe. The more we learn about how meat is produced now, the more in-vitro meat looks like a better alternative."

Lab-produced meat also raises some ethical considerations. Kate McMahon, Friends of the Earth Energy and Transport campaigner, believes more attention should be paid to improving livestock conditions rather than developing in-vitro meat.

"At a time when hundreds of small-scale, sustainable farming operations are filing for bankruptcy every day, it is unethical to consider purchasing petri-dish meat. Rather, we should be making it easier and more affordable to raise livestock in a safe, humane and ecologically sensitive manner," she told CNN.

Gillan Madill, Genetics Technologies spokesperson for Freinds of the Earth, thinks that clear perameters for in-vitro development need to put in place: "If we can successfully develop these products, what is the defining line between lab-grown meat and natural animals?" she told CNN.

"That is an especially important question since a high level of differentiation and tissue complexity is required to replicate muscle tissue that we use as meat. We need to draw clear lines in order to prevent the commodification of all life."

Ultimately the success of in-vitro meat may be less about consumer sensibilities and more about the hard realities of feeding a growing global population in a finite world.

"With India and China doubling their meat consumption every decade, there's no sustainable way to satisfy the growing global appetite for meat without a significant improvement in technology," said Matheny.

"Cultured meat offers one solution. Improved plant-based meat substitutes offer another. I expect both will be needed."

Test tube burgers? It seems you could be eating them sooner than you might expect.

Friday, August 7, 2009

"Serious" climate talks hinge on U.S. bill: lawmaker

The fate of a U.S. climate change bill will send signals to the rest of the world as to whether upcoming global climate talks will be "serious or not," one of the bill's co-authors said on Thursday.

The bill, which aims to cut U.S. emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, passed the House of Representatives and Massachusetts Representative Edward Markey said he hopes to see it make its way through Senate by the year's end.

"This bill is a bill the world is waiting for to make a determination as to whether or not the negotiations that we will be undertaking in Copenhagen will be serious or not," Markey said in a speech at Harvard University in Cambridge. "The Chinese are looking at it, the Europeans, the rest of the world ... The bill is now pending in the Senate and my great hope is that we will see passage of that before the end of this year."

Negotiators from about 190 countries are scheduled to meet in the Danish capital of Copenhagen in December for a round of talks aimed at getting rich nations to agree to cut their greenhouse gas emissions sharply and to help emerging economies -- which are rapidly becoming major emitters as they consumer more energy -- do the same.

The climate bill, written by Markey and Representative Henry Waxman, to reduce U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide, which contributes to global warming, by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

One of the challenges facing the climate bill is the crowded legislative agenda. U.S. President Barack Obama has also made health care reform a top priority -- leaving Congress to take on a thorny and emotional issue that Americans have been debating for decades.

"These are the top two priorities of the President and the Congress and so they're going to be moving along simultaneously this fall within the legislative process," Markey told reporters after his speech. "Each of them will require, to some extent, success on the other. It's important for us to move forward on these together because the opponents of them are using both bills as reasons why President Obama is taking us in the wrong direction and we have to make the counter-argument that it's why he's taking us in the right direction."

The climate bill, which uses a cap-and-trade system to lower emissions, made it narrowly through the House, carrying by just seven votes. The Senate is expected to try to produce its own version of the bill, which if passed would need to be harmonized with the House version

Panel gives mixed review to U.S. biofuel rules

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency did a reasonable job in estimating the U.S. biofuel industry's role in causing greenhouse gas emissions overseas, but some of the work was problematic, a scientific review panel concluded on Friday.

EPA ordered the independent review in May, when it proposed regulations for expansion of U.S. biofuel output. They would require biofuels to show an overall reduction in greenhouse gases, including land that may be converted to crops overseas.

Growth Energy, an ethanol industry group, said the peer review showed EPA's estimates were not reliable. It said Congress should eliminate indirect land use change from EPA regulations or order an Academy of Sciences study of the concept.

Rep. Collin Peterson, Democrat of Minnesota, said the peer review proved EPA used "incomplete and unreliable models" to link farming decisions overseas and U.S. biofuel output. Peterson, the House Agriculture Committee chairman, played a leading role in a House vote to require a five-year study of indirect land use change.

The four scientists who examined EPA's models of U.S. and international land use agreed EPA's use of elements of two land-use models was reasonable and preferable to using a single, global model, said EPA in a summary of the review.

The scientists said the global model did not produce data with sufficient detail. On the other hand, they suggested ways to improve the models that EPA used in part, such as more attention to U.S. forests as a source of new cropland.

One reviewer, Michael Wang of Argonne National Laboratory, "questioned whether the modeling capabilities currently available in the field are sufficient to generate results for use in development of regulation," said EPA, summarizing responses to the question of whether there were better ways to estimate agricultural impacts.

EPA wants to implement the new biofuel regulations this year.

China leads in global green jobs race

China is winning a global race to create "green collar" jobs, six months after countries worldwide launched $500 billion spending plans to drive a low-carbon economy.

Following the economic downturn, both the United States and Europe aim to spur jobs in a green push to fight climate change and boost energy security, but China may leapfrog both this year in new wind power -- a key measure.

China passed the United States in numbers of new wind turbines built in the first half of 2009, data from Beijing-based specialists Azure International shows, and is also increasing its share of the main solar demand market, Europe.

"I think China is definitely winning the race," said Wu Changhua, China director of the London-based environment body The Climate Group, citing support for low-carbon LED lighting and electric cars as well as wind and solar.

"A low-carbon economy is mainstream thinking," she said, adding that Chinese development was helped by swifter centralized decision-making compared with its rivals.

In wind power, local demand often means local jobs -- that's especially true in China where an unofficial rule says all installed turbines must include 70 percent local content.

International companies' market share there is falling.

"In the first half (of 2009) that decline continued," said Sebastian Meyer, head of research at Azure International.

Tough financing markets plus falling oil prices have dented clean energy prospects worldwide and created a glut of turbines and solar panels, with recovery expected from next year, aided by new stimulus programs

An Underwater Fight Is Waged for the Health of San Francisco Bay

Chela Zabin will not soon forget when she first glimpsed the golden brown tentacle of the latest alien to settle in the fertile waters of San Francisco Bay.



The broad-leaf kelp is used in miso soup.

“I had that moment of ‘Oh God, this is it, it’s here,’ ” said Dr. Zabin, a biologist with the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center. “I was really hoping I was wrong.”

The tentacle in question was that of an Asian kelp, Undaria pinnatifida, a flavorful and healthful ingredient in miso soup and an aggressive, costly intruder in waters from New Zealand to Monterey Bay.

The kelp, known as wakame (pronounced wa-KA-me), is on a list of “100 of the World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species,” compiled by the Invasive Species Specialist Group. Since her discovery in May, Dr. Zabin and colleagues have pulled up nearly 140 pounds of kelp attached to pilings and boats in the San Francisco Marina alone.

Every year the damage wrought by aquatic invaders in the United States and the cost of controlling them is estimated at $9 billion, according to a 2003 study by a Cornell University professor, David Pimentel, whose research is considered the most comprehensive. The bill for controlling two closely-related invasive mussels — the zebra and the quagga — in the Great Lakes alone is $30 million annually, says the United States Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force.

Many scientists say that San Francisco Bay has more than 250 nonnative species, like European green crab, Asian zooplankton and other creatures and plants that outcompete native species for food, space and sunlight.

“Here you’ve got a veritable smorgasbord of habitats from shallow and muddy to deep water,” said Lars Anderson, a lead scientist with the United States Agriculture Department. The Oakland port ranks as the fourth busiest in the nation, and ships bring in tiny hitchhikers from across the globe to take up residence in the bay.

Most invasive aquatic species arrive stuck to hulls or as stowaways in ballast water. Wakame first arrived at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in 2000, Dr. Zabin and other scientists said. A year later it had moved south into Baja California and north as far as Monterey Bay, where scientists in scuba suits yanked it off boat hulls and marina moorings.

“It’s just like gardening, you can pull out all the weeds you want, but there will always be that little dandelion seed that will sprout and recolonize,” said Steve Lonhart, senior scientist at the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. The kelp, which can grow an inch a day, could spread as far north as Canada before the water becomes too cold to sustain it, Dr. Lonhart said.

Native to the Japan Sea, wakame has now spread to the Mediterranean and elsewhere along European coastlines, and to New Zealand, Australia and Argentina, where the fetid smell of rotting kelp has kept beachgoers from parts of the coast.

Wakame harms native kelp, mucks up marinas and the undersides of boats, and damages mariculture like oyster farming.

Money to help eradicate invasive species is difficult to come by on both state and federal levels, particularly in a state facing an unprecedented financial crisis and cuts to programs. “When there is a big wildfire, no one stops and asks, ‘Who is going to pay for this?’ They just fight the fire,” Dr. Anderson said. “We don’t have that kind of automatic response with invasive species.”

On weekends, Dr. Anderson trolls Tomales Bay, 50 miles north of here, in a sea kayak, looking for wakame’s wide leaves.

John Finger is owner of Hog Island Oyster Farm, which has beds in 160 acres of Tomales Bay. His beds yield 2.5 million oysters per year, worth $6 million, Mr. Finger said. Of wakame’s approach, he said, “It seems inevitable that it will show up here.”

Though wakame has not yet been spotted in the bay, Mr. Finger said he was pre-emptively training his staff on how to identify and remove the kelp. “This is just another sign of how small the world is,” he said.

Back in San Francisco, Dr. Zabin and colleagues from nonprofit groups and state and federal agencies have been pooling resources and volunteers, donning scuba and snorkeling equipment and filling black plastic trash bags with the kelp.

But before trucking it to the landfill, Dr. Zabin plans to ship some to Texas. “I got an e-mail from a guy who wants to use it to make biofuel,” Dr. Zabin said. “Maybe he could just come and vacuum it up.”

Unelected Colo. Democrat a Wild Card on Energy, Climate Issues

When it comes to legislation aimed at addressing climate change, there are senators whose votes are clear and those who are undecided. Then there is Sen. Michael Bennet, who might be described as a enigma.Bennet, a Colorado Democrat appointed to his seat in January when Ken Salazar vacated it to become Interior secretary, has said he hopes to support a climate bill. He offers in an interview that some of his priorities include "a greater focus on renewables, like wind and sun," as well as incentives for natural gas.

Bennet does not list specifics, however, about what help he would want for those industries, whether legislation should include protections for coal, or how he would want to protect consumers from rising prices. His answers can be interpreted in any number of ways. And because he came to the Senate without serving in any legislative office, he lacks any voting record that could offer clues.

That makes him a key target of industry lobbyists, environmental groups and Democratic leaders who will need every vote to pass climate legislation.

"Climate change and environmental legislation have traditionally been the hardest to build coalitions around," said Julian Zelizer, Princeton University professor of history and public affairs. Democrats are split, he said, between wanting to protect the environment and seeking to protect manufacturing jobs.

"It doesn't seem like they're going to get much Republican support," Zelizer added. "The undecided senators are central."

Bennet, 44, the former superintendent of Denver's public schools, arrived in the Senate after an election that saw Colorado tilt even more heavily toward the Democratic column, following a shift that started in 2004 when Salazar won his seat. In November, Colorado voted for Obama, elected Democrat Mark Udall as senator, and picked Democrats for five of seven House seats. Gov. Bill Ritter, elected in 2004, is a Democrat.

It is not clear whether that is a temporary change, analysts say, as Republicans prior to 2004 held most of the statewide offices. And Bennet has to face the voters for the first time next year, giving Democratic leaders an added incentive to help him.

The Senate climate bill won't be unveiled until next month, which Bennet said is one of the reasons he is not ready to talk specifics. "On this side of the Capitol, it's too early to know remotely what the policy choices are going to be," Bennet said.

But ultimately it is likely to be a tough vote for Colorado's newest senator. Bennet represents a state where traditional energy and environmental interests collide. Over the August recess, the senator said he plans to talk to people in the coal, natural gas, oil and renewable energy industries as well as environmentalists and entrepreneurs.

"I'd like to hear what they have to say about it before I shoot my mouth off," he said.

Juggling demands

Seven of the country's 100 largest natural gas fields and two of its 100 largest oil fields are found in Colorado, according to the Energy Information Administration. There are significant coal deposits, and about 70 percent of the state's electricity generation comes from coal-fired power plants.

But there is a push to go green on energy. Environmental groups thrive in the state, and even among conservatives there is an interest in protecting Colorado's scenic backdrops and its tourism industry, which brought $10.9 billion into the state last year.

"Energy issue's gotten complicated out here," said John Straayer, political science professor at Colorado State University. When gas and oil prices climbed to historic highs, he said, it kicked off a flurry of drilling in the state. "On the one hand it meant money, money, money and that's jobs, jobs, jobs. On the other hand it has environmental impacts."

People who had bought custom-built dream retirement homes saw oil rigs destroying their views, Straayer said. A contingent of hunters and fishers and outdoor enthusiasts, many of whom are conservatives, also opposed the rapid expansion.


In 2004, Colorado was the first state in the country to pass a ballot initiative mandating that utilities generate a portion of their power from renewable sources, a requirement that topped out at 10 percent by 2015. Gov. Ritter two years ago increased the requirement to 20 percent by 2020 for the investor-owned utilities. He also brought energy cooperatives into the program. They must meet a 10 percent level by 2020.



Investment flowed into renewables, particularly solar power. A June 2009 Pew Charitable Trust report cited Colorado, along with Tennessee and Oregon, as having one of the fastest-growing "clean energy" economies.

Bennet cited findings in that Pew report when he introduced Ritter last month at a hearing of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.

Clean energy job growth in Colorado from 1998 through 2007 "is more than double, double the normal job growth [at] 18.2 percent as opposed to 8.2 percent," Bennet said. Venture capital investment in green technology in Colorado "topped $620 million over the past three years." That statistic also is from the Pew report, which lists Colorado as fifth for venture capitol investments in clean energy, behind California, Massachusetts, Texas and Washington.

Bennet's signed on as co-sponsor to a bill from Sen. Tom Udall, (D-N.M.) and Udall of Colorado that would enact a 25-percent-by-2025 renewable electricity standard. "It's been an enormous positive for Colorado," Bennet said. "The market adapted. Our evidence is that it works."

When it comes to Colorado's fossil fuels, Bennet for now is stepping behind natural gas, calling for it to have a bigger role in the Senate bill. "It was essentially absent from the House bill," Bennet said. "I'd like to know why that is."

Bennet said he also sees "opportunities to tie together natural gas with intermittent power sources like sun and wind."

"I don't have any specifics today," Bennet said about what he wants to see. "I'm talking with people in the environmental community and natural gas people and hearing what their ideas are."

Asked whether he felt a need to protect the coal interests in his state, Bennet said, "in the context of trying to get a bill that makes a meaningful difference in our emission of C02, yes." He added he has spent the last four months working on economic stimulus and health care issues and had yet to research all aspects of climate.

Some aspects of climate have drawn his attention, however. During a July hearing of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Bennet cited a study from the University of Colorado, Boulder, indicating a one in two chance that water reservoirs in the Colorado River will dry up by 2050. He asked John Holdren, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, to explain more about climate change and its effect on water and agriculture. Holdren talked of increased likelihood of drought in the Southwest.

"In Colorado now we're confronting these issues because of the water shortages that we have," Bennet said. "If we are going to be able to assure that another generation of Coloradans are able to farm, or one after that, we need some answers to these questions how do we preserve our water resources."

At that same hearing, Bennet asked Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack about the potential for rural farmers to benefit from offsets, a provision in the House climate bill allowing companies to invest in programs that reduce carbon dioxide instead of buying allowances to cover greenhouse gases. Farmers could potentially qualify as an offset by switching crops or changing how they manage livestock.

"They all seem like potential economic benefits," Bennet said. "We haven't seen them yet, we're not sure, but could be hugely important to our rural communities."

All things to all people?

Bennet's lack of a voting history allows him to become all things to all people, said Zelizer with Princeton University. It probably "makes the party leaders a little bit nervous," he said.

Presidents have aides who search lawmakers' backgrounds, looking for what makes them tick politically and what might get their vote on legislation.

"Someone like him you don't really know much about him, and that makes him more difficult and harder to persuade," Zelizer said. "It's hard to read who he is."

But that also could offer an opening, Zelizer said. Bennet does not have to worry about taking a position that contradicts one he has taken in the past.


He's more of a blank slate ... and he might be looking for an issue," Zelizer said. If Bennet joined a group of senators to pass a bill, "This can be kind of a defining moment. It could elevate him in the national spotlight, and the administration would be indebted to him."



One environmentalist said he wasn't too worried that Bennet would not in the end be an ally. "Obviously Senator Bennet doesn't have a track record, but he comes highly recommended from people in Colorado about his willingness to engage on these issues and support measures to obtain a clean energy economy," said Dave Hamilton, Sierra Club director of global warming and energy programs.

Environmentalists who have talked to Bennet, Hamilton said, report that "he's willing to listen."

"I'm not lying awake nights thinking that somehow Senator Bennet is going to become a wild-eyed conservative on environmental issues," Hamilton said. It's impossible to say whether Bennet can be counted as a yes vote, Hamilton said, because "it's unclear in the Senate what you're actually getting him on board for."

A lobbyist for coal interests, who asked not to be identified citing his company policy, said he did not know where Bennet was at on the provisions the industry is seeking. "He's smart enough to keep his head down," the lobbyist said.

Frank Maisano, senior principal at Bracewell & Giuliani, which lobbies for utility and coal interests, described Bennet as "a bit of a wild card," but noted how he had "connected the dots," on agriculture, water and offsets.

But while renewables have grown in Colorado, Maisano said, "coal is a significant contributor and they have a significant pull despite what the folks in Boulder think.

"Obviously it's going to be a tough vote for him," Maisano added.

The wisest course politically for Bennet is to not make a decision or say too much on a climate bill before he has to, said Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College in Colorado Springs.

"He's going to feel party pressure in the Senate to support it," Loevy said. "The position he's in, he's going to have to go with his best judgment of where public opinion is. If he sees cap and trade as gaining popularity he'll vote for it. If he sees it as unpopular in Colorado, he'll vote against it."