UN chief warns of dire future without climate deal

Failure to act quickly on climate change could eventually lead to violence and mass unrest as global weather patterns drastically change, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Tuesday."If we fail to act, climate change will intensify droughts, floods and other natural disasters," Ban said at a forum near Seoul that came weeks ahead of his own conference on climate change in September."Water shortages will affect hundreds of millions of people. Malnutrition will engulf large parts of the developing world. Tensions will worsen. Social unrest -- even violence -- could follow," Ban said according to a prepared text of his remarks to a global environment forum in Incheon, west of Seoul.Greenhouse gas emissions are widely considered to be one of the main causes of global warming. Nations will gather in Copenhagen in December to work out a new agreement on reducing emissions to succeed the current Kyoto Protocol, whose first phase ends in 2012.Ban, calling climate change a fundamental threat to mankind, called on world leaders to act quickly so that a deal can be reached at Copenhagen.In Bonn, delegates from about 180 nations meet for U.N. climate talks this week amid warnings that time was running out for them to reach agreement on a hugely complex pact, due for completion at the end of the year. [ID:nLA285715]About 2,400 delegates at the Aug 10-14 negotiations in Bonn will try to shorten a draft text, outlining options for combating global warming, that has swollen to about 200 pages from 50 just a few months ago.The Bonn meeting, the third in Germany this year, was added because of scant progress with the deadline looming. After Bonn, talks before Copenhagen are in Bangkok from Sept. 28-Oct. 9 and in Barcelona, Spain, from Nov. 2-6.

UN climate change negotiations get under way in Bonn

Global climate change talks, leading up to the Copenhagen conference in December, started in Bonn, Germany, this week, and South Africa was represented at these informal talks by Department of Environmental Affairs negotiators.The aim of the talks was to pave the way to fair agreement, which could be finalised at the Copenhagen conference, and would be the framework for climate change action beyond 2012, which is when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends.Following the current United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) talks in Bonn, there were two more informal negotiating sessions scheduled before December.The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) said that without steps forward during the UNFCCC meetings, it would be much harder to achieve results and make financial commitments during the upcoming series of high-level political meetings at the United Nation’s General Assembly (UNGA), and Group of 20 summit in the US in September.“In order to see real progress, the UNFCCC meetings need to gain speed and help the political process,” said WWF Global Climate Initiative leader Kim Carstensen.There were numerous political dynamics and political conditionalities framing the negotiations. South Africa’s Department of Environmental Affairs previously explained that the European Union would not make any further commitment beyond its decision to reduce emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, unless the US made similar commitments in line with the science.Scientists have indicated that global temperature change needs to be kept below a 2 ºC increase. A change of 0,7 ºC has already been recorded. Even at a 2 ºC level, it was expected that severe changes in the climate would be experienced, and even though the average increase would be 2 ºC, some regions, like Africa, could experience average temperature increases of up to 5 ºC.Continuing with politics, the US has said it would not make commitments unless China took on emission reductions targets, and in turn, China would not take on such targets unless the rest of the developing world (the Group of 77 (G77) countries) took on targets. Yet, for the G77 nations, political priorities were development and poverty eradication, as well as adaptation to the effects of climate change that were already being experienced – rather than mitigation of emissions.According to the WWF, the Bonn meeting should be used to minimise the level of mistrust between rich and poor. It should also focus on unifying the draft texts and erasing those parts, which do not have the right level of ambition.“If delegates decided where ambitious options have to be placed and consolidate the proposed negotiation texts, it would be progress and a good base,” Carstensen said.At the recent Group of Eight and Major Economies Forum summits in L’Aquila, Italy, politicians accepted the science stating that global warming should be kept below 2 ºC.WWF welcomed this, but emphasised that warming levels would have to be even kept far below 2 ºC to give small island countries and ecosystems a chance to survive.“The self-proclaimed climate leaders from the group of industrialised countries must commit to emission cuts of 40% by 2020 from 1990 levels to back up their 2 ºC vision with real action,” said Carstensen.The WWF, in collaboration with a number of other nongovernmental organisations worldwide, has drawn up a draft first version Copenhagen Climate Treaty, to show what it felt a deal should look like, as well as to show that it was possible. The treaty took some eight months to draw up, and was considered a “work in progress”.

Climate Change as Security Threat Is Nothing New

A front-page story in Sunday's New York Times proclaimed Climate Change Seen as a Threat to U.S. Security, describing how climate change could lead to "profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades, raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms, drought, mass migration and pandemics." The story noted that "Such climate-induced crises could topple governments, feed terrorist movements or destabilize entire regions, say the analysts, experts at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies who for the first time are taking a serious look at the national security implications of climate change." The Times writers, like so many others, have short memories. This is hardly "the first time" the military has examined this topic. Nearly six years ago, two scenario planners prepared a report for the Department of Defense titled "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security." The report (download - PDF), by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall of the Global Business Network, a San Francisco-based think tank, explored how an acceleration of climate change "could potentially de-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war." It examined climate-induced constraints such as "food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production; decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patterns, causing more frequent floods and droughts; and disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess." Concluded Schwartz and Randall: "As global and local carry capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations, especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor." Why the seemingly "new" interest by the Pentagon on climate? Perhaps because the price of inaction may be seen as hitting closer to home. It's not just the vulnerable regions on other continents -- sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia, among others -- that will suffer the consequences of climate change. It's here on domestic soil. "A growing number of policy makers say that the world’s rising temperatures, surging seas, and melting glaciers are a direct threat to the national interest," reports the Times, adding: "If the United States does not lead the world in reducing fossil-fuel consumption and thus emissions of global warming gases, proponents of this view say, a series of global environmental, social, political and possibly military crises loom that the nation will urgently have to address." It will be interesting to see whether and how the national security issue changes the tone in Washington as climate debates resume in September. If the national security crowd joins in on the side of prudent proactive measures to address America's greenhouse gas emissions, it could accelerate the speed and scale of carbon regulation. And it will be interesting to see whether climate-action proponents -- in business as well as activist, scientific, and political circles -- latch on to the national-security thread as a potent argument for change. If there's one thing that can trump the economy, stupid, it's keeping America safe from the rest of the world.

North American Leaders Support Using Ozone Treaty to Cut ‘Potent Greenhouse Gases’

Yesterday the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico committed to “work together under the Montreal Protocol to phase down the use of HFCs and bring about significant reductions of this potent greenhouse gas.” The agreement is included in the Leaders Declaration on Climate Change and Energy from the North American Summit in Guadalajara, Mexico. “Phasing down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol is a brilliant strategy,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “This is the treaty that never fails to deliver. It’s already phased out 96 chemicals by 97%, and it’s ready to tackle these super greenhouse gases.” The campaign to tackle HFCs began earlier this year with a proposal by two small island nations, the Federated States of Micronesia and Mauritius. “The support of North America leaders is appreciated,” said Ambassador Yosiwo George from the Federated States of Micronesia. “It brings strong reinforcements and gives our islands a fighting chance to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.” However, success of the proposal will be largely in the hands of the U.S. “These island nations need the muscle of the U.S. to get an agreement,” added Zaelke. “This is a great opportunity for the Administration to show its leadership on climate change.” The North American leaders’ commitment to the Montreal Protocol follows the commitment made by G8 leaders in July to “work with our partners to ensure that HFC emissions reductions are achieved under the appropriate framework….” Since April, the HFC phase-down proposal has gained eight additional co-sponsors from fellow island nations, all of which are promoting this fast-action measure as a way to stave off abrupt climate change and rising sea levels that threaten their homes and cultures. The final negotiations on the islands’ proposal will take place this November at the Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol in Port Ghalib, Egypt. A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that HFCs (used widely in refrigeration and air conditioning applications) could grow to almost 45 percent of CO2 emissions by 2050 under a 2˚C scenario where CO2 emissions are stabilized at 450 ppm. Although downstream emissions of HFCs are currently included under the Kyoto Protocol, quicker and more cost-effective reductions could be achieved by using the Montreal Protocol to control upstream production and consumption of HFCs. Because HFCs are short-lived (about a decade in the atmosphere in contrast to centuries for CO2), cutting these emissions now would result in huge climate benefits in the near term. With the tipping points for abrupt climate change on the horizon, there is an even greater need for ‘fast-action’ measures that can be implemented now, with current technology. Other near-term actions include reducing emissions of black carbon soot, methane, and tropospheric ozone, and expanding bio-sequestration through production of biochar.

State of India's environment sickening: report

About 45 percent of India's land is degraded, air pollution is increasing in all its cities, it is losing its rare plants and animals more rapidly than before and about one-third of its urban population now lives in slums, says the State of Environment Report India 2009 brought out by the government.
The third official report on the state of India's environment, published after a gap of eight years and released by Minister of State for Environment and Forests Jairam Ramesh on Tuesday, has only one word of cheer: it says India is using 75 percent of the water it can use, and it has "just enough for the future if it is careful".
The report, prepared by NGO Development Alternatives under the aegis of the ministry, says 45 percent of India's land area is degraded due to erosion, soil acidity, alkalinity and salinity, waterlogging and wind erosion.
It says the prime causes of land degradation are deforestation, unsustainable farming, mining and excessive groundwater extraction.
On the bright side, the report shows how over two-thirds of the degraded 147 million hectares can be regenerated quite easily, and points out that India's forest cover is gradually increasing.
Ramesh said it would be unrealistic to expect that India's area under forests would go above the current 21 percent, given the competing demands for land. "Our plan is to have all this 21 percent as high and medium density forests within the next 10 years," he said. Currently, only two percent of India is under high density forest cover, while medium density forests cover about 10 percent of the land.
Presenting the salient features of the report to the media, Development Alternatives President (Development Enterprises) George C Varughese said one of its most worrisome findings was that the level of respirable suspended particulate matter--the small pieces of soot and dust that get inside the lungs--had gone up in all the 50 cities across India studied by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences and the Central Pollution Control Board.
"In these 50 cities, with their population of 110 million, the public health damage costs due to this was estimated at Rs.15,000 crore in 2004," Varughese said.
The main causes of urban air pollution were vehicles and factories, he pointed out, appealing for a major boost to public transport.
While India still had some cushion when it came to water use, this scarce resource would have to be managed very carefully, the report says. It identifies lack of proper pricing of water for domestic usage, poor sanitation, unregulated extraction of groundwater by industry, discharge of toxic and organic wastewater by factories, inefficient irrigation and overuse of chemical fertilisers and pesticides as the main causes of water problems in the country.
While India remains one of the world's 17 "megadiverse" countries in terms of the number of species it houses, 10 percent of its wild flora and fauna are on the threatened list, Varughese pointed out. The main causes, according to the report, were habitat destruction, poaching, invasive species, overexploitation, pollution and climate change.
The report points out that while India contributes only about five percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions that are leading to climate change, about 700 million Indians directly face the threat of global warming today, as it affects farming, makes droughts, floods and storms more frequent and more severe and is raising the sea level.
In the section on urbanisation, the report points out that 20 to 40 percent of people living in cities are in slums. Varughese said there were good projects to upgrade their lives and improve the environment at the same time, but the problem was that most of the money from schemes like the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission was taken away by the big cities, "while the major problem is in about 4,000 small and medium towns".

Green and confused: What happens to old satellites?

Q.On the anniversary of the Apollo Moon landings, my eight-year-old son asked what happens to the old satellites and other debris in space. Will they eventually fall to Earth?

Your son has put his finger on what is becoming quite an environmental problem. First, tell him not to worry: he doesn’t have to go round with a hard hat on for fear of a wayward satellite flattening him. Most space debris, if it falls back to Earth, burns up as it re-enters the atmosphere.

However, there is a great deal of junk out there, zooming along at speeds of up to 25,000mph. At such a velocity, a mere flake of paint can do considerable damage to a satellite. Nasa frequently has to mend windows on its spacecraft because of penetration by minuscule flying objects.

No one is sure of the exact amount that has accumulated since the launch of the first satellite, the Soviet, in 1957, but over the years, millions of pieces of debris from space missions and satellites have contributed to what has become a revolving scrapyard way above our heads. Objects range from jettisoned spacecraft parts to tiny fragments of fuel and urine.

A United Nations body called the Inter-Agency Debris Co-ordination Committee uses sophisticated radar and monitoring equipment to track the debris and is able to detect objects (about 9,000) bigger than a tennis ball. Smaller objects can’t be tracked but are growing in number. One of the problems is that as these objects collide or break up, more debris is created. A discarded launch arm can wipe out a multimillion-dollar satellite. A bolt dropped during a space station repair could puncture the skin of a spacecraft and cause a catastrophe.

On occasions a space launch has had to be delayed until scientists were certain that the rocket would enter a “junk-free” zone. Now engineers are looking for ways to vaccuum up the debris before disaster strikes. It’s a bit like the mounting pile of rubbish deposited on Everest by climbers — the more we explore, the more junk is amassed. Man leaves an environmental footprint everywhere, even in space.

'Spiderbots' talk amongst themselves inside active volcano

squadron of 'spiderbots' inside Mount St Helens is the first network of volcano sensors that can automatically communicate with each other and with satellites, rather than sending data to a base station first.

Since the system can route data around any sensors that break and can simply be dropped into volcanoes, it is more robust and easier to deploy than current sensor systems, which must be carefully set up by hand.

Similar networked robots could one day be used to study geological activity elsewhere in the solar system, say scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which helped develop and monitor the robots.

Fifteen spiderbots, so-named because of the three spindly arms protruding from their suitcase-sized steel bodies, were lowered from a helicopter to spots inside the crater and around the rim of Mount St Helens, an active volcano in the US state of Washington, in July.

Each has a seismometer for detecting earthquakes, an infrared sensor to detect heat from volcanic explosions, a sensor to detect ash clouds, and a global positioning system to sense the ground bulging and pinpoint the exact location of seismic activity.

Once in place, the bots reached out to each other to form what is known as a mesh network. "It's similar to the internet," says Steve Chien, the principal scientist for autonomous systems at JPL. "You just lay them out, and they figure out the best way to route the data."

Self-healing

Other robotic volcano-monitoring systems exist, most notably around Mount Erebus in Antarctica. But they require permanent sensors to be buried in the ground or drilled into rock, which can take days of dangerous human labour.

The spiderbots are flexible and inexpensive enough that they can be set down almost anywhere. "You can imagine just dropping these out of a helicopter, and they'll just land like spikes in the ground and do their thing," Chien says.

The spider web's unique networking capabilities also give it a distinct advantage over other monitoring systems. The network is self-healing – if one node dies, the others automatically route data around it.

The scientists added this innovation after several early models were boiled, crushed or knocked over in the volcano's 2004 eruption. They also made the hardware more resilient. "These are much more rugged," says Rick LaHusen of the US Geological Survey. "They can take an impact and keep on working."

Space link

The network analyses data on the spot before sending it back to its base station at the nearby Johnston Ridge Observatory, allowing the spiderbots to provide real-time risk assessment – crucial in the event of an eruption.

"Scientists can sit in their office, and see through the internet what happened at Mt St Helens one second ago," says WenZhan Song of Washington State University in Vancouver, the principal investigator of the project.

It is also the first of its kind to communicate with a satellite.

The network can call the satellite to take pictures if it senses an unusual tremor, or the satellite can ask the network to focus its attention on a particular spot if it sees an anomalous heat source. "There's an autonomous interaction between the ground and the space systems – no people are needed," says LaHusen.

Europa submarine

The satellite link also lets scientists control the spider web from a distance. "We can upgrade lots of spiders by one mouse click," Song says.

The self-organising, self-healing, remotely controllable network would be essential for using similar robots on other planets or their moons, where scientists can't carefully place each sensor or replace one if it breaks.

Chien imagines using a similar network to study seismology on Mars or explore hydrothermal vents in the ocean thought to lie below the surface of Jupiter's icy moon Europa.

"In the Mount St Helens case, when it sees something interesting, it calls in satellite observations," Chien says. "On Europa, you might imagine you'd have a submarine that places sensors on these hydrothermal vents, and they call the mothership when they see things."

http://brightcove.newscientist.com/services/player/bcpid1873822884?bctid=33323552001