Thursday, August 13, 2009

Study Finds Big Storms on a 1,000-Year Rise

The North Atlantic Ocean has spawned more hurricanes and tropical storms over the last decade than it has since a similarly stormy period 1,000 years ago, according to a new study.
The research, published yesterday in the journal Nature, tries to trace the pattern of storms along North America's Atlantic and Gulf coasts back to A.D. 500, well before humans were recording weather observations.
The study's lead author, climate scientist Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, said finding a reliable way to reconstruct centuries of past hurricane activity could help scientists tease out whether future climate change will alter storm patterns.
"One of the driving motivations for this research is to place in a longer-term context ... Atlantic tropical cyclone behavior, and the extent to which it may be anomalous," he said.
That meant trying to divine information about the past beyond historical records collected by ships and observers on shore, and later by storm-tracking aircraft and satellites.
The scientists relied on two different methods to reconstruct the past -- a foray into the emerging field of "paleotempestology," or the study of ancient storms.
First, they examined layers of sediment collected from coastal ponds and salt marshes that tend to flood when hurricanes make landfall nearby. Each flood deposits a layer of coarse barrier beach sand on the muddy pond floor, creating a record scientists can examine by collecting sediment cores. For the new study, Mann and his co-authors at the University of Massachusetts and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution collected cores at eight sites along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, ranging from southern Massachusetts to Vieques Island, Puerto Rico.
The researchers also used a computer model to simulate 1,500 years of Atlantic storms, feeding in information collected between 1851 and 2006 about factors known to influence hurricane activity, including sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the occurrence of El Niño weather patterns, and fluctuations in the jet stream.
The two methods produced similar overall results, Mann said, such as showing a major peak in storm activity about 1,000 years ago.
But 'paleotempestology' doesn't end the debate
Taken together, he said, they suggest that warmer temperatures produce more storm activity -- meaning that coming climate change could increase the frequency of hurricane activity.
"The paleoclimate evidence seems to reinforce the notion that, all other things being equal, when you have warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, you see more activity," he said.
But Mann said there's also a possibility that climate change could alter the frequency of El Niño, which blunts hurricane activity, and counteract the effects of future ocean warming.
"Current state-of-the-art climate model projections are more or less split between whether there will be more El Niño conditions or more La Niña-like conditions," he said.
"The jury is still out. But this study is an independent data point from the paleo record that gives more weight to the proposition that warming the tropical Atlantic will continue to give us a higher level of hurricane and tropical cyclone activity."
Kerry Emanuel, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has published studies linking climate change to stronger hurricanes, called the new research "an impressive piece of work, melding two completely independent approaches to estimating past hurricane activity."
Emanuel said the Nature study "shows that hurricane activity is indeed quite sensitive to climate, and although we are still not completely sure about global warming effects, the paper raises again the flag that potentially they could be large."
But James Elsner, a climate scientist at Florida State University, said the "rather large levels of uncertainty" in the new study's results gave him pause.
"I don't see it as settling the debate on climate change and hurricane activity," said Elsner, who helped develop the statistical methods employed in the new study. "I think it does provide evidence that warmth is important."
At the same time, he explained, "the lack of a real tight physical theory between ocean warmth and frequency indicates this is not the smoking gun that would allow us to confidently project what might happen as oceans warm in the future."

India's water use 'unsustainable'

Much of the water used in paddy fields is pumped from underground
Parts of India are on track for severe water shortages, according to results from Nasa's gravity satellites.
The Grace mission discovered that in the country's north-west - including Delhi - the water table is falling by about 4cm (1.6 inches) per year.
Writing in the journal Nature, they say rainfall has not changed, and water use is too high, mainly for farming.
The finding is published two days after an Indian government report warning of a potential water crisis.
That report noted that access to water was one of the main factors governing the pace of development in the world's second most populous nation.



About a quarter of India is experiencing drought conditions, as the monsoon rains have been weaker and later than usual.
But weather and climatic factors are not responsible for water depletion in the northwestern states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, according to the Nasa study.
"We looked at the rainfall record and during this decade, it's relatively steady - there have been some up and down years but generally there's no drought situation, there's no major trend in rainfall," said Matt Rodell, a hydrologist at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center near Washington DC.
"So naturally we would expect the groundwater level to stay where it is unless there is an excessive stress due to people pumping too much water, which is what we believe is happening."
State of Grace
The Grace (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission uses two satellites flying along the same orbit, one just in front of the other.
Minute differences in the Earth's gravitational pull cause the two craft to shift slightly in their positions relative to one another.

The Grace satellites provide a twin eye on Earth gravity
Grace twins measure 'potato' Earth
The mission can measure groundwater depletion because the amount of water in aquifers has a small gravitational attraction for the satellites.
Three years ago, Grace scientists noted a loss of water in parts of Africa - but the Indian result is more striking.
"Over the six-year timeframe of this study, about 109 cubic kilometres of water were depleted from this region - more than double the capacity of India's largest reservoir is gone between 2002 and 2008," Dr Rodell told the BBC.
The northwest of India is heavily irrigated; and the Indian government's State of the Environment report, published on Tuesday, noted that irrigation increased rice yields seven-fold in some regions compared to rain-fed fields.
Dr Raj Gupta, a scientist working for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), said that the current drought would lead to more groundwater extraction.
"Farmers receive no rains so they are pumping a lot more water than the government expected, so the water table will fall further," he said.
"The farmers have to irrigate, and that's why they're pumping more water, mining more water. The situation has to stop today or tomorrow."
Dr Gupta noted that some farmers might be able to switch from rice to crops that demand less water, such as maize or sorghum.
But, he said, that would depend on government policies - which have traditionally promoted rice - and on market demand.
Climate change is likely to be a constraint too, with the area of South Asia suitable for wheat forecast to halve over the next 50 years.

Five Health Tips to Avoid Swine Flu

Swine flu" or the "H1N1" flu virus (a more technical name for the same virus) is a public health emergency that the U.S. government is keeping a close watch on so that people are aware, informed and prepared to take action steps to keep themselves and their families healthy and safe.

Any flu virus is particularly life-threatening to the very young, elderly and those battling disease, infection, etc. There are 5,469 people in the U.S. who have been sickened by the swine influenza and there has been six death so far, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It's important that we keep this virus in check.

Take time to review the CDC's five, flu-safety tips, which will help you avoid swine flu (or any flu). They'll also help to ensure that the virus doesn't spread needlessly.

  • Tip #1: Stay home if you're sick.
  • Tip #2: Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
  • Tip #3: Wash your hands often and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
  • Tip #4: Cover your mouth or nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing.
  • Tip #5: Keep up with health information in your own community.

Do these tips sound familiar? Flu-safety basics are the exact same whether you get the human flu or the swine flu. The swine flu is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza viruses that cause regular outbreaks in pigs. People don’t usually get swine flu but infections can and do occur.

This virus spreads the exact same way that regular flu viruses spread -- person-to-person transmission through coughing, sneezing and touching of infected people or surfaces: door knobs, shopping carts, countertops, etc. So, it’s also a good idea to carry your alcohol-based, disinfecting wipes, sprays and gels with you, as well.

There is some good news: First, there are antiviral medicines to prevent and treat swine flu. They may also prevent serious flu complications. Second, swine influenza viruses are not spread by food. So, you don’t need to throw away or stop eating your pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork products is still safe.

Now, if you live in areas where swine influenza have been identified (there are 48 affected states), contact a health care provider, particularly if you are worried about your symptoms. Swine flu symptoms include: fever, body aches, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting or diarrhea. Your health care provider will determine whether influenza testing or treatment is needed.

By practicing these flu-safety basics, you’ll lower your chances of getting a host of illnesses, including the swine flu.





Five Health Tips to Avoid Swine Flu

Swine flu" or the "H1N1" flu virus (a more technical name for the same virus) is a public health emergency that the U.S. government is keeping a close watch on so that people are aware, informed and prepared to take action steps to keep themselves and their families healthy and safe.

Any flu virus is particularly life-threatening to the very young, elderly and those battling disease, infection, etc. There are 5,469 people in the U.S. who have been sickened by the swine influenza and there has been six death so far, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It's important that we keep this virus in check.

Take time to review the CDC's five, flu-safety tips, which will help you avoid swine flu (or any flu). They'll also help to ensure that the virus doesn't spread needlessly.

  • Tip #1: Stay home if you're sick.
  • Tip #2: Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
  • Tip #3: Wash your hands often and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
  • Tip #4: Cover your mouth or nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing.
  • Tip #5: Keep up with health information in your own community.

Do these tips sound familiar? Flu-safety basics are the exact same whether you get the human flu or the swine flu. The swine flu is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza viruses that cause regular outbreaks in pigs. People don’t usually get swine flu but infections can and do occur.

This virus spreads the exact same way that regular flu viruses spread -- person-to-person transmission through coughing, sneezing and touching of infected people or surfaces: door knobs, shopping carts, countertops, etc. So, it’s also a good idea to carry your alcohol-based, disinfecting wipes, sprays and gels with you, as well.

There is some good news: First, there are antiviral medicines to prevent and treat swine flu. They may also prevent serious flu complications. Second, swine influenza viruses are not spread by food. So, you don’t need to throw away or stop eating your pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork products is still safe.

Now, if you live in areas where swine influenza have been identified (there are 48 affected states), contact a health care provider, particularly if you are worried about your symptoms. Swine flu symptoms include: fever, body aches, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting or diarrhea. Your health care provider will determine whether influenza testing or treatment is needed.

By practicing these flu-safety basics, you’ll lower your chances of getting a host of illnesses, including the swine flu.

Swine Flu More Condition_Symptoms

The symptoms are similar to those experienced by people infected by other flu strains. In the past, pneumonia and respiratory failure and deaths have been reported with swine flu infection. Like seasonal flu, swine flu may cause chronic medical conditions to worsen.

How can you tell if you might have swine flu and should see a doctor? Here’s a checklist of symptoms linked to the disease, which is suspected of killing more than 150 people in Mexico and sickening hundreds more around theTo avoid confusion with other respiratory illnesses, Santa Clara County’s public health department released these specific conditions to be considered for swine-flu testing.

  • Symptoms must include a fever above 100°F or 37.8°C and one or more signs or symptoms including: head and body aches, cough, sore throat, chills, trouble breathing, and vomiting and/or diarrhea.
  • People who experience a fever of 100°F and one or more symptoms should call their doctor or clinic. Plan to provide the following information: types of symptoms you are experiencing; recent travel to Mexico; contact with someone who may have influenza.The incubation period for swine flu, as with other strains of influenza, is two to seven days, according to public health officials.
  • The Santa Clara County Public Health Information Line (PHIL) will be staffed to answer public questions about the swine flu. Call 408-885-3980.
  • For more information about swine flu, visit www.cdc.gov/swineflu or www.sccgov.org and click on “Swine Flu Update” under Hot Items.

globe:

Go Green, Win Some Green

Laclede Gas customers who have considered going green by receiving their bills electronically now have a new motivation to make the switch: a chance at $1,000 cash.

All customers enrolled in Laclede’s e-bill service as of September 30, 2009 will automatically be entered into a drawing for a cash prize and a donation to the “green” charity of their choice. In October, two accounts will be randomly selected from the e-bill subscriber list. The first account holder selected will win $1,000 cash, and Laclede will make a $100 donation to his/her favorite “green” charity. The second account holder selected will win $100 cash, and Laclede will make a $50 donation to his/her “green” charity of choice. Details and official rules are available at lacledegas.com.

E-bill allows customers to receive and pay their monthly statement electronically, thereby reducing the number of paper bills Laclede prints and mails. Each year, the amount of paper Laclede uses in its monthly billing process is the environmental equivalent of powering an average American household for 26 days or nine trees that supply enough oxygen for five people for one year. As an added benefit to customers, e-bill is a faster, easier and more convenient way for customers to receive and pay their gas bill. With e-bill, there are no more paper bills to archive or shred.

Customer Connection is Laclede’s online account management tool that allows customers to monitor their natural gas usage and understand the variables that are driving that usage. Monthly billing statements are archived for viewing and comparison over a 13-month period. Customers can also determine their Budget Billing amount and enroll in the program, thereby enjoying a consistent charge each month. In addition, customers may help those in need by enrolling in Dollar-Help. Current and previous year contributions Dollar-Help are tracked for reference. Later this summer, Laclede will introduce enhancements to Customer Connection that will enable customers to research usage in relation to the outside temperature; view scheduled service requests; and request natural gas service be turned off.

A subsidiary of The Laclede Group (NYSE: LG), Laclede Gas Company has provided safe and reliable service to the residents of the St. Louis metropolitan area for more than 150 years. It is the largest gas distribution company in Missouri, serving more than 630,000 natural gas customers in St. Louis and surrounding counties in Eastern Missouri.

Green Revolution, Green Jobs Central to National Clean Energy Summit 2.0

Hosting his second annual all-star gathering of clean energy proponents at University of Nevada, Las Vegas on Monday, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada called for "a new revolution ... a clean energy revolution" to restore American prosperity and global leadership.

Comparing the National Clean Energy Summit 2.0 to the original American Revolution, Reid told participants why the date of the meeting, August 10, is important to him.

"It was on August 10, 1776 the word reached London that the Americans had drafted the Declaration of Independence. The Revolution that followed set our nation and the world, but especially our nation, on a long journey towards prosperity and global leadership," said Reid.

"Today, August 10th here in Las Vegas we're firing the first shots of a new revolution to regain that prosperity and restore that leadership: a clean energy revolution that will create millions of jobs across America and thousands of jobs right here in Nevada," he said.

Former President Bill Clinton, left, and Senator Harry Reid at the National Clean Energy Summit. (Photo courtesy Center for American Progress Action Fund, CAPAF)
Reid hosted high-powered guests former President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore; the current Secretary of Energy Steven Chu and Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis; the Assistant Energy Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Cathy Zoi; as well as Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington; Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; United Nations Foundation President Tim Wirth; billionaire energy executive T. Boone Pickens and John Podesta, who heads the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Podesta said he hopes that ideas engendered at the summit will enhance this fall's Congressional debate on clean energy and global warming reduction. The House passed the Waxman-Markey clean energy bill earlier this year, and Senate is expected to tackle legislation after Labor Day.

"We've learned in our past meetings that clean energy infrastructure works best when it works together," Podesta said. "Electric cars can use electricity created by wind turbines and solar power. A smart grid can efficiently bring renewable electricity from points of generation in deserts and plains to points of consumption in cities and towns."

"Efficiency in renewable electricity standards that affect the price of carbon pollution can create the incentives for sustained private investment that can jump-start American production of clean energy technology and the clean energy technology industries of the future," Podesta explained.

President Clinton's White House Chief of Staff, Podesta said he sees President Barack Obama as understanding "this fundamental point: all the elements of a clean energy economy rely on one another. That's why he's made transforming our economy to a clean energy base so central to economic recovery."

Energy Secretary Chu also called for a revolution, "a second industrial revolution." The first industrial revolution came with a "carbon dioxide cost" but "in the next industrial revolution, we must develop technologies that will enable us to get the energy the world needs to grow and prosper but "essentially reducing and eliminating the carbon dioxide," he said.

This solar concentrator at University of Nevada, Las Vegas generates power with a concentration of 250 suns. (Photo courtesy UNLV)

Chu said the United States has the greatest research and development centers in the world in universities, national labs and the private sector. "Once we get this great invention machine geared and going we'd be invincible. But the only trouble is, let's get it going."

Just back from China, Chu said China is "gearing up" to lead in the next revolution and is "going heavily into solar" and is "leading the world now in the highest voltage transmission both A/C and D/C" for "internal consumption" and intends to "be the leader."

"Quite frankly, the United States is still ahead of China and why don't we be the leader?" said Chu, a Nobel Prize winning nuclear physicist.

"We can take the leadership role," Chu said, "but "you have to send first a long-term signal to the people of the United States, to industry, that says 'yes we're going to have a cap on our carbon, and we're going to ratchet it down.'"

"If we move in this direction, we can be the leader and seize the opportunity. If we don't and just try to say, ‘No, we're not really sure this is all happening'" and "'maybe the climate isn't really changing,'" that's "wishful thinking and it's just throwing away this great opportunity."

Nobel Laureate Gore expressed confidence that America can accomplish the goal of his July 2008 Generational Challenge to Repower America - producing 100 percent of America's electricity from renewable energy and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years.

Gore said he sees "lots and lots of good jobs in this effort to Repower America" and said he has spent the last two years conducting 32 "solution summits" to brainstorm ways of meeting the climate challenge.

"We're going to have to come to grips with the fact that the climate crisis is threatening the future of our civilization and just because those words sound shrill is no excuse for not saying them. We have to face up to this," urged Gore. "We're putting another 70 million tons of global warming pollution in the thin shell of our atmosphere surrounding our planet every 24 hours. This is madness."

"We owe it to ourselves and especially to our children and grandchildren and future generations," declared Gore. "Who are we to make a decision to just keep on being so wasteful and destructive in the teeth of the warnings from every single prestigious scientific organization on this planet? Every single national academy of sciences in the world has endorsed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report saying we have got to act on this."

Al Gore at the National Clean Energy Summit (Photo courtesy CAPAF)

Praising President Obama for "making a down payment" towards that goal with his economic stimulus funding, Gore said many of the green jobs created by repowering the country will be in Nevada, and particularly at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Keith Schwer, director of the UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research and professor of economics, said current unemployment in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, stands at 12.3 percent compared to the national rate of 9.4 percent.

"Nevada is blessed with renewable energy" which will "become our export base" as "Nevada will be exporting energy," said Schwer.

Nevada has abundant sun, wind and geothermal energy sources and efficiency technologies that can be developed to meet future energy needs without depending on foreign oil supplies, he said.

Former President Clinton, whose William J. Clinton Foundation has been working with 40 cities to achieve energy efficiency with building retrofits, said "a $520 billion investment could cut U.S. energy end use by 23 percent."

"That's more than Canada's total consumption" and "enables us to do what Robert Kennedy recently suggested ... close 22 percent of our coal plants that are old and uniformly quite small. We could save half or more of the emissions coming out of coal plants in the United States," Clinton said.

Clinton said, "$520 billion sounds like a huge amount of money" but "the last time I checked about two months ago the banks of the U.S. had more than $900 billion in cash uncommitted to loans."

Clinton suggested creating a Small Business Loan Guarantee Program so "you could then go to a bank and say you should renovate the local hospital" because "a guarantee fund stands behind that."

Clinton pointed out, "If we'd done it for the $18 billion that was appropriated in the stimulus bill we could have financed $180 billion worth of building retrofits. Instead of 100,000 jobs you'd have over a million jobs.

Clinton said, "You've got to get the banks involved in this if you want to quit piddling around. We don't need 625,000 jobs gradually building over 10 years. We need three million more jobs today." He said we need to "prove to the American people we can get the 80 percent reduction [in greenhouse gas emissions] by 2050 while growing the economy not shrinking it."

Former General Wesley Clark noted the U.S. imports 12 million barrels of oil every day and burns 140 billion gallons every year.

Pickens said "When we're using 25 percent of oil in the world and we're four percent of the population" the price will become high or be cut off and "have a very sad ending to it."

Pickens envisions that 6.5 million trucks using natural gas would cut U.S. dependency on foreign oil by 2.7 billion barrels a year. Pickens sees this as possible in less than 10 years.

Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington remarked, "When you have an oilman from Texas saying that you need to get off of oil, I don't think you need any bigger mission statement than that."

John Podesta at the summit (Photo courtesy CAPAF)

Podesta foresees that with "supportive federal policies, huge shale gas newly available because of American know-how and technology" can "replace old dirty coal powered plants, dramatically reducing global warming pollution."

In a new paper issued Monday, Podesta and Wirth write, "Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel - it produces less than half as much carbon pollution as coal. Recent technology advancements make affordable the development of unconventional natural gas resources. This creates an unprecedented opportunity to use gas as a bridge fuel to a 21st century energy economy that relies on efficiency, renewable sources, and low-carbon fossil fuels such as natural gas."

"Natural gas can supplement wind and solar energy to solve the intermittency problem that comes with renewable energy," Podesta advised summit participants, adding, "a green bank can provide secure affordable financing to get new technologies off the ground and into the marketplace."

Gore said, "We need a price on carbon because carbon is invisible, tasteless and odorless and we're dumping it into the atmosphere as if it's an open sewer and, because we can't see it, it falls prey to the old saying, out of sight, out of mind."

"If we get a price on carbon then all of a sudden the advantages of natural gas over coal become crystal clear," said Gore, "the advantages of electric vehicles over the internal combustion engine become crystal clear."

Gore said "It takes more electricity just to run electrical appliances in American homes that are turned off than the entire energy use of the nation of Japan. That's how much we use. It's ridiculous."

"This wastefulness and inefficiency is just ingrained, and it has become a way of life," Gore said. The good news is when we make these changes" people "will make money, they'll save on their energy bills," and it will create jobs.

Labor Secretary Solis said she wants to change "that preconceived notion that green jobs are not for everyone or that people don't even know that they exist."

Solis said the "Green Revolution" can "encompass everyone regardless of educational attainment level, literacy level and skill level."

Terry O'Sullivan, president of the 500,000 member Laborers' International Union of North America, said 1.6 million construction workers are unemployed and he looks to the clean energy economy to create green jobs. "If it's not greening the environment, then it's not a good green job; and if it's not putting green in worker's pockets, then it's not a good green job," he said.

Van Jones of the White House Council on Environmental Quality said, "The values that underlie this clean energy conversation" are "the common ground values of America: clean air is better than dirty air for the health of our children."

Van Jones at the summit (Photo courtesy CAPAF)

"If we have the opportunity to fight both poverty and pollution by putting people to work in these new industries, we would be wise as a country to do that," Jones said.

The Obama administration is so committed to energy efficiency because, "We think this is the most fiscally-conservative thing we can do with the federal dollars," said Jones. "The dollars invested in energy efficiency "are humble, hard-working dollars. They work double-time, triple-time, quadruple-time."

Double-time dollars fund job training to create energy efficiency specialists, who install insulation that cuts someone's energy bill. Triple-time working dollars also cut pollution, Jones said, "because a coal fired power plant is working overtime because our homes are so leaky and waste so much energy."

Quadruple-time working dollars cut greenhouse gas emissions from the coal plants and "help us take asthma inhalers out of little girls' and boys' pockets."

Jones said conservatives should like these solutions because, "We're not talking about expanding welfare; we're talking about expanding work. We're not talking about expanding entitlements; we're talking about expanding enterprise and investments."

Reid characterized himself as a capitalist and said, "America is the center of capitalism in the world. With health care reform, no one's trying to make this a government run system. With energy reform we're not trying to make this a program that is going to be taken over by the federal government."

"If you look at energy, though, you have to recognize that government's been heavily involved in energy from the beginning," said Reid. "That's why in virtually every state you have regulated monopolies that control the distribution of electricity and natural gas."

Commending the dedication of summit participants, Reid recalled a visit to Gore's office when he was a U.S. Senator representing Tennessee (1985–93). There he saw a wall chart going to the ceiling showing the projected rise in greenhouse gas emissions. "This is something he's devoted his life to," said Reid.

"Boone Pickens could be in his personal jet going around the world having a good time," he said, "but this 81 year old man has decided he wants to try to change our country for the better."

Reid called on Americans to also be devoted "and speak out against these people who I describe as 'evil-mongers' who are trying to take our country away from us. That's what this conference is all about - changing the direction of our country and the world for the betterment of the American people