As international climate negotiations progress this week in Bangkok, Thailand, India has shown signs of more proactive engagement on climate change issues both internationally and at home. While the Indian government continues to emphasize poverty alleviation and economic development as the country's highest priorities, recent stances on domestic emission reductions indicate that India is taking considerable steps to encourage more constructive global climate talks.
India joins a growing contingent of developing countries that "are making very significant efforts to show what they are doing to address climate change and indicate what more they are willing to do," according to U.N. climate chief Yvo de Boer.
Until recently, India had repeatedly rejected calls to quantify its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions on the grounds that this would jeopardize national poverty alleviation goals.
"India cannot and will not take emission reduction targets because poverty eradication and social and economic development are first and over-riding priorities," Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said in June.
But two weeks ago, in a surprising reversal, India agreed to quantify its efforts to mitigate climate change. Ramesh said India would reduce emissions by "a broadly indicative number," although the reductions would still not be bound by international law.
At the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate in Italy in July, India joined 16 other countries in declaring that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels should not exceed 2 degrees Celsius. This goal remains somewhat controversial, however, as there is still no clear agreement on how countries will share the burden for reducing global emissions.
At the subsequent Major Economies Forum in Washington, D.C., this September, India proposed that it could submit more detailed and regular information to the international community on its domestic climate change efforts as a step toward greater transparency.
All countries that are party to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to submit periodic "national communications" that report on their carbon emissions and climate mitigation activities. But India, like other developing countries, has not had to submit these reports as regularly or in as much detail as industrialized countries, especially for those actions that are not internationally funded.
"We are prepared to...incorporate [self-funded actions on climate change] in our national communication [and]...to consider making the national communication more detailed and more regular," said Shyam Saran, India's Special Envoy on Climate Change, speaking to Worldwatch. But, he said, all parties to the UNFCCC would need to agree to such changes.
These recent overtures from India's government are a sign of the country's growing investment in the success of the Copenhagen climate negotiations in December, Ramesh said.
"The single most important message we need to give the world is that we are proactive, constructive, [and] we want a fair and equitable agreement in Copenhagen," he told the Indian Express.
Strengthening efforts at home
India's investment in climate change appears to be ramping up domestically as well.
Last month, the Ministry of Environment and Forests released a report listing 20 initiatives that the country is undertaking to address climate change at home. These steps come as part of India's larger National Action Plan on Climate Change.
The report mentions reforestation as a priority on India's environmental agenda. A major drive is under way nationwide to add 0.8 million hectares of forest per year, coupled with efforts to improve forest management, conservation, and regeneration and to boost local capacity and job creation for some of India's poorest communities.
These initiatives will help offset 11 percent of India's annual emissions, according to the Ministry report.
The report also touts the government's recent approval of two of the eight "missions" that comprise the National Action Plan on Climate Change: the Solar Mission and the Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency.
The Solar Mission sets a target to install 20 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity by 2020 and 200 GW by 2050. It is the most ambitious solar plan that any country has put forward so far.
The Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency contains initiatives designed to improve the efficiency of energy use across sectors. The government has said the program will include a series of mandated efficiency standards for vehicles, buildings, and appliances; a market-based mechanism to trade energy-efficiency certificates; and other mechanisms to finance efficiency efforts, such as tax exemptions and insurance funds.
The Ministry has also floated a proposal to create a National Environmental Protection Authority that would monitor and evaluate the implementation of environmental efforts in India. The proposal comes as part of a new drive from the Ministry to improve its "accountability and transparency," as outlined in a recent video that asks viewers to provide feedback on Ministry activities.
India firm on equity concerns
Despite its increasingly proactive engagement on climate issues, India has not waivered from its position that equity concerns must underlie the international climate negotiations. The government insists that, despite a common goal of global climate stabilization, each country has a different responsibility to address the problem.
"The major responsibility for bringing about [climate change] is that of the developed countries, and...they should carry out credible action in order to control emissions," said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at a press conference following the recent G20 Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsyslvania.
Topping India's agenda have been appeals for more ambitious emissions cuts from industrialized countries as well as larger commitments to provide financial and technical support to the developing world.
"Nearly 200 million [Indians] live on less than $1 a day and nearly 500 million do not have access to modern sources of energy," said External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna at a U.N. roundtable event in New York in September.
At the meeting, Krishna called on industrialized countries to cut their carbon emissions "at least 40 percent by 2020" from 1990 levels and asked them to consider changes in lifestyle patterns to achieve this shift.
"We cannot get away from the fundamental fact that unsustainable lifestyles and patterns of production and consumption in the developed world have caused climate change. This cannot continue," he said.
Krishna emphasized the importance of focusing on climate change adaptation as well as mitigation. "Developing countries must be supported financially, technologically, and with capacity-building resources so that they can cope with the immense challenges of adaptation," he said in a statement to the U.N. General Assembly.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
What are the Effects of Drought?
Drought can have serious health, social, economic and political impacts with far-reaching consequences. Water is one of the most essential commodities for human survival, second only to breathable air. So when there is a drought, which by definition means having too little water to meet current demands, conditions can become difficult or dangerous very quickly.
The consequences of drought may include:
Hunger and famine—Drought conditions often provide too little water to support food crops, through either natural precipitation or irrigation using reserve water supplies. The same problem affects grass and grain used to feed livestock and poultry. When drought undermines or destroys food sources, people go hungry. When the drought is severe and continues over a long period, famine may occur.
Thirst—All living things must have water to survive. People can live for weeks without food, but only a few days without water.
Disease—Drought often creates a lack of clean water for drinking, public sanitation and personal hygiene, which can lead to a wide range of life-threatening diseases.
Wildfires—The low moisture and precipitation that often characterize droughts can quickly create hazardous conditions in forests and across range lands, setting the stage for wildfires that may cause injuries or deaths as well as extensive damage to property and already shrinking food supplies.
Social conflict and war—When a precious commodity like water is in short supply due to drought, and the lack of water creates a corresponding lack of food, people will compete—and eventually fight and kill—to secure enough water to survive.
Migration or relocation—Faced with the other impacts of drought, many people will flee a drought-stricken area in search of a new home with a better supply of water, enough food, and without the disease and conflict that were present in the place they are leaving
The consequences of drought may include:
Hunger and famine—Drought conditions often provide too little water to support food crops, through either natural precipitation or irrigation using reserve water supplies. The same problem affects grass and grain used to feed livestock and poultry. When drought undermines or destroys food sources, people go hungry. When the drought is severe and continues over a long period, famine may occur.
Thirst—All living things must have water to survive. People can live for weeks without food, but only a few days without water.
Disease—Drought often creates a lack of clean water for drinking, public sanitation and personal hygiene, which can lead to a wide range of life-threatening diseases.
Wildfires—The low moisture and precipitation that often characterize droughts can quickly create hazardous conditions in forests and across range lands, setting the stage for wildfires that may cause injuries or deaths as well as extensive damage to property and already shrinking food supplies.
Social conflict and war—When a precious commodity like water is in short supply due to drought, and the lack of water creates a corresponding lack of food, people will compete—and eventually fight and kill—to secure enough water to survive.
Migration or relocation—Faced with the other impacts of drought, many people will flee a drought-stricken area in search of a new home with a better supply of water, enough food, and without the disease and conflict that were present in the place they are leaving
Smoking Bans Reduce Risk of Heart Attacks by Lowering Exposure to Secondhand Smoke
People who live in communities that ban smoking in public places--such as bars, restaurants, and government buildings--have fewer heart attacks, according to two new research studies recently reported by the National Institutes of Health.
In the communities researchers studied, the rate of heart attacks fell dramatically within one year after the smoking ban was put in place (17 percent in one study and 25 percent in the other), and dropped about 36 percent after three years, leading one researcher to estimate that a nationwide ban on smoking in public places in the United States would result in more than 154,000 fewer heart attacks annually.
In the communities researchers studied, the rate of heart attacks fell dramatically within one year after the smoking ban was put in place (17 percent in one study and 25 percent in the other), and dropped about 36 percent after three years, leading one researcher to estimate that a nationwide ban on smoking in public places in the United States would result in more than 154,000 fewer heart attacks annually.
Congress and the EPA Both Take Steps to Control Global Warming
The big news out of Washington, DC, this morning is about climate-change legislation and regulation.
U.S. Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) yesterday introduced the long-awaited Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act, a Senate bill aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming. At nearly the same time, the Obama administration announced that the Environmental Protection Agency would move forward with new rules to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from factories, power plants and other large industrial facilities.
U.S. Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) yesterday introduced the long-awaited Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act, a Senate bill aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming. At nearly the same time, the Obama administration announced that the Environmental Protection Agency would move forward with new rules to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from factories, power plants and other large industrial facilities.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Mighty caribou herds dwindle, warming blamed
Here on the endlessly rolling and tussocky terrain of northwest Canada, where man has hunted caribou since the Stone Age, the vast antlered herds are fast growing thin. And it's not just here.
Across the tundra 1,500 kilometers (1,000 miles) to the east, Canada's Beverly herd, numbering more than 200,000 a decade ago, can barely be found today.
Halfway around the world in Siberia, the biggest aggregation of these migratory animals, of the dun-colored herds whose sweep across the Arctic's white canvas is one of nature's matchless wonders, has shrunk by hundreds of thousands in a few short years.
From wildlife spectacle to wildlife mystery, the decline of the caribou — called reindeer in the Eurasian Arctic — has biologists searching for clues, and finding them.
They believe the insidious impact of climate change, its tipping of natural balances and disruption of feeding habits, is decimating a species that has long numbered in the millions and supported human life in Earth's most inhuman climate.
Many herds have lost more than half their number from the maximums of recent decades, a global survey finds. They "hover on the precipice of a major decline," it says.
The "People of the Caribou," the native Gwich'in of the Yukon and Alaska, were among the first to sense trouble, in the late 1990s, as their Porcupine herd dwindled. From 178,000 in 1989, the herd — named for the river crossing its range — is now estimated to number 100,000.
"They used to come through by the hundreds," James Firth, 56, of the Gwich'in Renewable Resources Board said as he guided two Associated Press journalists across the tundra.
Off toward distant horizons this summer afternoon, only small groups of a dozen or fewer migrating caribou could be seen grazing southward across the spongy landscape, green with a layer of grasses, mosses and lichen over the Arctic permafrost.
"I've never seen it like this before," Firth said of the sparse numbers.
More than 50 identifiable caribou herds migrate over huge wilderness tracts in a wide band circling the top of the world. They head north in the spring to ancient calving grounds, then back south through summer and fall to winter ranges closer to northern forests.
The Porcupine herd moves over a 250,000-square-kilometer (100,000-square-mile) range, calving in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, near Alaska's north coast, where proposals for oil drilling have long stirred opposition from environmentalists seeking to protect the caribou.
The global survey by researchers at the University of Alberta, published in June in the peer-reviewed journal Global Change Biology, has deepened concerns about the caribou's future.
Drawing on scores of other studies, government databases, wildlife management boards and other sources, the biologists found that 34 of 43 herds being monitored worldwide are in decline. The average falloff in numbers was 57 percent from earlier maximums, they said.
Siberia's Taimyr herd has declined from 1 million in 2000 to an estimated 750,000, as reported in the 2008 "Arctic Report Card" of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The Taimyr is the world's largest herd, but Canada and Alaska have more caribou, and the Alberta study reported that 22 of 34 North American herds are shrinking. Data were insufficient to make a judgment on seven others.
In an AP interview, Liv Solveig Vors, the June report's lead author, summarized what is believed behind the caribou crash: "Climate change is changing the way they're interacting with their food, directly and indirectly."
Global warming has boosted temperatures in the Arctic twice as much as elsewhere, and Canadian researchers say the natural balance is suffering:
_Unusual freezing rains in autumn are locking lichen, the caribou's winter forage, under impenetrable ice sheets. This was the documented cause in the late 1990s of the near-extinction of the 50,000-strong Peary caribou subspecies on Canada's High Arctic islands.
_Mosquitoes, flies and insect parasites have always tormented and weakened caribou, but warmer temperatures have aggravated this summertime problem, driving the animals on crazed, debilitating runs to escape, and keeping them from foraging and fattening up for winter.
_The springtime Arctic "green-up" is occurring two weeks or more earlier. The great caribou migrations evolved over ages to catch the shrubs on the calving grounds at their freshest and most nutritious. But pregnant, migrating cows may now be arriving too late.
Vors said caribou are unlikely to adjust.
"Evolutionary changes tend to take place over longer time scales than the time scale of climate change at the moment," she said. Climatologists foresee northern temperatures rising several degrees more this century unless global greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced soon.
Caribou herds have gone through boom-and-bust cycles historically, but were never known to decline so uniformly worldwide.
Leading Canadian specialist Don Russell, coordinator of a new global network formed to more closely monitor what's happening to the herds, said experts are focusing on "what has changed between this decline and previous declines."
"We've seen a number of areas where climate change is playing a big role, and we see some very dramatic trends," he said in an interview in Whitehorse, the Yukon territorial capital.
In neighboring Northwest Territories, the territorial government on Sept. 24 reported results of its aerial survey of the Bathurst herd: Its population has dropped to about 32,000, from 128,000 in 2006.
"The numbers are not getting better. There's no good news, no indication of recovery," J. Michael Miltenberger, the environment and natural resources minister, said by telephone from Yellowknife, the capital.
He said "there's a huge issue" with the Beverly herd, which numbered 276,000 in 1994, ranging over the Canadian tundra 1,500 kilometers (1,000 miles) due north of North Dakota.
"We've been flying north to south, east to west," Miltenberger said. "By our count, with the Beverly herd, they've all but disappeared."
Climate change is piling problem upon problem on the caribou, he said, including bogging them down in thawing permafrost and lengthening the wildfire season, burning up their food.
"The cumulative impact is bringing enormous pressure on the caribou," he said.
And that puts pressure on Canada's "first nations," who for at least 8,000 years have relied on the harvest of caribou meat for the winter larder, have settled along migration routes, have built their material culture around the animal — using skin, bones and sinews for clothing, shelter, tools, thread, even their drums.
"There are probably ominous implications for communities relying on caribou," Russell said.
Such reliance is mirrored in Siberia and northern Scandinavia, where the Sami people make a hard living herding reindeer as livestock. Freezing rains there are reported to have forced Sami to buy fodder to substitute for ice-locked forage.
Here in the timeless, silent beauty of Gwich'in country, his people may face "hard decisions," Firth acknowledged, perhaps to limit their hunt to ease the pressure.
"The future of the Gwich'in and the future of the caribou are the same," the Gwich'in often say. But even more may be at stake.
On this summer day above the Arctic Circle, binoculars found a group of caribou being stalked and circled by a hungry grizzly bear, a needy predator and another link in an intricate, interdependent natural web that may be unraveling, year by year and degree by degree, on the tundra.
Across the tundra 1,500 kilometers (1,000 miles) to the east, Canada's Beverly herd, numbering more than 200,000 a decade ago, can barely be found today.
Halfway around the world in Siberia, the biggest aggregation of these migratory animals, of the dun-colored herds whose sweep across the Arctic's white canvas is one of nature's matchless wonders, has shrunk by hundreds of thousands in a few short years.
From wildlife spectacle to wildlife mystery, the decline of the caribou — called reindeer in the Eurasian Arctic — has biologists searching for clues, and finding them.
They believe the insidious impact of climate change, its tipping of natural balances and disruption of feeding habits, is decimating a species that has long numbered in the millions and supported human life in Earth's most inhuman climate.
Many herds have lost more than half their number from the maximums of recent decades, a global survey finds. They "hover on the precipice of a major decline," it says.
The "People of the Caribou," the native Gwich'in of the Yukon and Alaska, were among the first to sense trouble, in the late 1990s, as their Porcupine herd dwindled. From 178,000 in 1989, the herd — named for the river crossing its range — is now estimated to number 100,000.
"They used to come through by the hundreds," James Firth, 56, of the Gwich'in Renewable Resources Board said as he guided two Associated Press journalists across the tundra.
Off toward distant horizons this summer afternoon, only small groups of a dozen or fewer migrating caribou could be seen grazing southward across the spongy landscape, green with a layer of grasses, mosses and lichen over the Arctic permafrost.
"I've never seen it like this before," Firth said of the sparse numbers.
More than 50 identifiable caribou herds migrate over huge wilderness tracts in a wide band circling the top of the world. They head north in the spring to ancient calving grounds, then back south through summer and fall to winter ranges closer to northern forests.
The Porcupine herd moves over a 250,000-square-kilometer (100,000-square-mile) range, calving in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, near Alaska's north coast, where proposals for oil drilling have long stirred opposition from environmentalists seeking to protect the caribou.
The global survey by researchers at the University of Alberta, published in June in the peer-reviewed journal Global Change Biology, has deepened concerns about the caribou's future.
Drawing on scores of other studies, government databases, wildlife management boards and other sources, the biologists found that 34 of 43 herds being monitored worldwide are in decline. The average falloff in numbers was 57 percent from earlier maximums, they said.
Siberia's Taimyr herd has declined from 1 million in 2000 to an estimated 750,000, as reported in the 2008 "Arctic Report Card" of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The Taimyr is the world's largest herd, but Canada and Alaska have more caribou, and the Alberta study reported that 22 of 34 North American herds are shrinking. Data were insufficient to make a judgment on seven others.
In an AP interview, Liv Solveig Vors, the June report's lead author, summarized what is believed behind the caribou crash: "Climate change is changing the way they're interacting with their food, directly and indirectly."
Global warming has boosted temperatures in the Arctic twice as much as elsewhere, and Canadian researchers say the natural balance is suffering:
_Unusual freezing rains in autumn are locking lichen, the caribou's winter forage, under impenetrable ice sheets. This was the documented cause in the late 1990s of the near-extinction of the 50,000-strong Peary caribou subspecies on Canada's High Arctic islands.
_Mosquitoes, flies and insect parasites have always tormented and weakened caribou, but warmer temperatures have aggravated this summertime problem, driving the animals on crazed, debilitating runs to escape, and keeping them from foraging and fattening up for winter.
_The springtime Arctic "green-up" is occurring two weeks or more earlier. The great caribou migrations evolved over ages to catch the shrubs on the calving grounds at their freshest and most nutritious. But pregnant, migrating cows may now be arriving too late.
Vors said caribou are unlikely to adjust.
"Evolutionary changes tend to take place over longer time scales than the time scale of climate change at the moment," she said. Climatologists foresee northern temperatures rising several degrees more this century unless global greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced soon.
Caribou herds have gone through boom-and-bust cycles historically, but were never known to decline so uniformly worldwide.
Leading Canadian specialist Don Russell, coordinator of a new global network formed to more closely monitor what's happening to the herds, said experts are focusing on "what has changed between this decline and previous declines."
"We've seen a number of areas where climate change is playing a big role, and we see some very dramatic trends," he said in an interview in Whitehorse, the Yukon territorial capital.
In neighboring Northwest Territories, the territorial government on Sept. 24 reported results of its aerial survey of the Bathurst herd: Its population has dropped to about 32,000, from 128,000 in 2006.
"The numbers are not getting better. There's no good news, no indication of recovery," J. Michael Miltenberger, the environment and natural resources minister, said by telephone from Yellowknife, the capital.
He said "there's a huge issue" with the Beverly herd, which numbered 276,000 in 1994, ranging over the Canadian tundra 1,500 kilometers (1,000 miles) due north of North Dakota.
"We've been flying north to south, east to west," Miltenberger said. "By our count, with the Beverly herd, they've all but disappeared."
Climate change is piling problem upon problem on the caribou, he said, including bogging them down in thawing permafrost and lengthening the wildfire season, burning up their food.
"The cumulative impact is bringing enormous pressure on the caribou," he said.
And that puts pressure on Canada's "first nations," who for at least 8,000 years have relied on the harvest of caribou meat for the winter larder, have settled along migration routes, have built their material culture around the animal — using skin, bones and sinews for clothing, shelter, tools, thread, even their drums.
"There are probably ominous implications for communities relying on caribou," Russell said.
Such reliance is mirrored in Siberia and northern Scandinavia, where the Sami people make a hard living herding reindeer as livestock. Freezing rains there are reported to have forced Sami to buy fodder to substitute for ice-locked forage.
Here in the timeless, silent beauty of Gwich'in country, his people may face "hard decisions," Firth acknowledged, perhaps to limit their hunt to ease the pressure.
"The future of the Gwich'in and the future of the caribou are the same," the Gwich'in often say. But even more may be at stake.
On this summer day above the Arctic Circle, binoculars found a group of caribou being stalked and circled by a hungry grizzly bear, a needy predator and another link in an intricate, interdependent natural web that may be unraveling, year by year and degree by degree, on the tundra.
Political barriers on the road to climate change control
When the 1997 Kyoto Protocol covering 180 nations did not include China and India, there was political backlash in the U.S. David Sandalaow was on President Clinton's negotiating team. He says now going forward, "Only agree abroad to what you can implement at home."
Kyoto remains largely a failure. The U.S. never joined it. Members that did join have not met their carbon reduction targets. But if any agreement is reached in Copenhagen in 2 months it will have to reflect the current American political climate. Kenichi Kobayashi, of the Japanese foreign Ministry says the Kyoto framework must be abandoned for a totally new program, citing changes in the 12 years since Kyoto.
One of the biggest developments is that China has overtaken the U.S. as the worlds top carbon emitter. China and the U.S. contribute nearly half of global carbon emissions. Copenhagen won't work without each of them coming to the table. China, India and Brazil emit far more carbon now than they did when Kyoto was agreed upon. The International Energy Agency says that 97% of increased carbon will come from the Emerging World in 2030.
Such projections sway Moderate Senate Democrats like Evan Bayh (Ind) to balk at legal limits on U.S. carbon emissions. "I could not ask the American people to sacrifice and not solve the problem of global warming because the developing world was not participating," he said.
India's Minister of Environment Jairam Ramesh said the U.S. short term carbon reductions remain too low. "The stalemate in negotiations has not been caused by China and India," Ramesh said. "The make or break issue is emissions cuts. If there is no agreement on that, there's no agreement in Copenhagen."
The U.S. is slow to use provisions in the House Climate Change Bill passed in the late spring for a framework of the U.S. position at Copenhagen, such as firm U.S. emission targets and investment and aid to Emerging Nations for forest preservation and Green Technology transfer. Many top environmental leaders say because of the U.S. failure to act on Kyoto we must now act more aggressively in Copenhagen.
Friday, Carol Browner, Obama's Climate Change czar said it is "not likely" that the U.S. will have a Climate Change bill passed and signed by the President in time for Copenhagen. The U.S. will not endorse international goals the U.S. has yet to accept at home, according to Todd Stern of the State Department.
The alternative to break the stalemate going into Copenhagen under discussion by both the U.S. and India is nationally binding targets that would be capable of international scrutiny.
Jim Connaughton, a top Bush environmental adviser said that what comes out of Copenhagen may look a great deal like what Bush had promoted. " What countries came to realize after Kyoto was it was hugely problematic to have international environmental negotiations establishing domestic economic and energy policy without first forging a domestic consensus," Connaughton said.
"What all major economies realized this time around is that they need to establish a domestic consensus on an agreed level of effort as a stronger basis for the commitments they make internationally and as a catalyst for international cooperation."
The promise of flexibility at Copenhagen signals not the end of discussion on Climate Change control but the real beginning.
Kyoto remains largely a failure. The U.S. never joined it. Members that did join have not met their carbon reduction targets. But if any agreement is reached in Copenhagen in 2 months it will have to reflect the current American political climate. Kenichi Kobayashi, of the Japanese foreign Ministry says the Kyoto framework must be abandoned for a totally new program, citing changes in the 12 years since Kyoto.
One of the biggest developments is that China has overtaken the U.S. as the worlds top carbon emitter. China and the U.S. contribute nearly half of global carbon emissions. Copenhagen won't work without each of them coming to the table. China, India and Brazil emit far more carbon now than they did when Kyoto was agreed upon. The International Energy Agency says that 97% of increased carbon will come from the Emerging World in 2030.
Such projections sway Moderate Senate Democrats like Evan Bayh (Ind) to balk at legal limits on U.S. carbon emissions. "I could not ask the American people to sacrifice and not solve the problem of global warming because the developing world was not participating," he said.
India's Minister of Environment Jairam Ramesh said the U.S. short term carbon reductions remain too low. "The stalemate in negotiations has not been caused by China and India," Ramesh said. "The make or break issue is emissions cuts. If there is no agreement on that, there's no agreement in Copenhagen."
The U.S. is slow to use provisions in the House Climate Change Bill passed in the late spring for a framework of the U.S. position at Copenhagen, such as firm U.S. emission targets and investment and aid to Emerging Nations for forest preservation and Green Technology transfer. Many top environmental leaders say because of the U.S. failure to act on Kyoto we must now act more aggressively in Copenhagen.
Friday, Carol Browner, Obama's Climate Change czar said it is "not likely" that the U.S. will have a Climate Change bill passed and signed by the President in time for Copenhagen. The U.S. will not endorse international goals the U.S. has yet to accept at home, according to Todd Stern of the State Department.
The alternative to break the stalemate going into Copenhagen under discussion by both the U.S. and India is nationally binding targets that would be capable of international scrutiny.
Jim Connaughton, a top Bush environmental adviser said that what comes out of Copenhagen may look a great deal like what Bush had promoted. " What countries came to realize after Kyoto was it was hugely problematic to have international environmental negotiations establishing domestic economic and energy policy without first forging a domestic consensus," Connaughton said.
"What all major economies realized this time around is that they need to establish a domestic consensus on an agreed level of effort as a stronger basis for the commitments they make internationally and as a catalyst for international cooperation."
The promise of flexibility at Copenhagen signals not the end of discussion on Climate Change control but the real beginning.
India seeks new path on climate change
India seeks new path on Climate Change. India has softened its harsh voice on resisting carbon limits. The change is brought about by India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who is nudging India into a more international pose on topics ranging from trade to Climate Change.
Mr. Singh says India faces multiple complex stumbling blocks that are all interrelated. These include everything from domestic issues like pollution and energy security to even national security. All are tied into Climate Change.
Experts say India's previous stand did not work. India is seen as an unwilling laggard on Climate Change. China meanwhile, India's top development ally, has come off as more active on Climate Change, despite resisting legal limits on carbon emissions.
"We can not compromise our basic national position on protecting our prospects for growth, but we can see things that can be done," said Nitin Desai, one of the Prime Minister's special Climate Change advisors. "The signal that I get is that India is not going to be a spoiler at Copenhagen. If a reasonable deal can be worked out, they will be there."
Experts are looking at alternatives to mandatory rules on carbon limits, like those of the failing Kyoto Protocol. As Copenhagen approaches within 3 months planners are considering providing credit for domestic programs, like the one India is considering.
India's ties to China on development make it seem the two are equal emitters of carbon. China is the worlds biggest carbon emitter. India emits a fifth of the carbon emissions of China, measured both in total and per capita. China comprises 23% of all worldwide carbon emissions while India contributes just 5%.
David Victor, an energy expert who researches India's Climate Change policies, believes the developing nations will break up as India distinguishes itself from nations like Mexico, Brazil and China that have more mature economies and greater carbon emissions. "The Indians need to be very careful that they are seen as a different kind of country."
Mr. Ramesh, India's Environmental Minister, said, "China has raced ahead of us, in conveying they are doing a lot on Climate Change." Mr. Ramesh said India has 2 basic requirements for Copenhagen. Industrialized countries must consent to steep cuts in carbon by 2020 and provide monetary and technical help to the Emerging World. India is still against mandatory carbon limits.
Mr. Ramesh said despite all the bad press about India on Climate Change, he said the Environmental Ministry is introducing legislation to the Indian Parliament to strengthen fuel efficiency standards, create voluntary targets to improve energy efficiency and promote solar power and implement clean coal technology among its utilities.
At the U.N. last month Mr. Ramesh highlighted the basic needs of India like increased forestation cover, lengthening a treaty on investment in Green Technology and more technological help.
For a long time, India defined its stance on Climate Change in geopolitical economic social justice and a national rights terms, claiming the Industrialized nations created Climate Change and the majority of response should come from the West.
Historically India has said legal limits on carbon would stunt India's economic development. This debate is still raging in India as part of the domestic debate on Climate Change. Mr. Singh was rebuked by members of Parliament after consenting last summer in Italy to prevent worldwide temperatures from increasing more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit from today.
Mr. Ramesh said its his responsibility to create a new domestic political partnership on how India can fruitfully work on Climate Change without jeopardizing India's economy, "without a solid domestic consensus, or even domestic constituency, we can not even think about engaging internationally. And this is also true of the United States", he added. "Its true of all democracies."
Mr. Singh says India faces multiple complex stumbling blocks that are all interrelated. These include everything from domestic issues like pollution and energy security to even national security. All are tied into Climate Change.
Experts say India's previous stand did not work. India is seen as an unwilling laggard on Climate Change. China meanwhile, India's top development ally, has come off as more active on Climate Change, despite resisting legal limits on carbon emissions.
"We can not compromise our basic national position on protecting our prospects for growth, but we can see things that can be done," said Nitin Desai, one of the Prime Minister's special Climate Change advisors. "The signal that I get is that India is not going to be a spoiler at Copenhagen. If a reasonable deal can be worked out, they will be there."
Experts are looking at alternatives to mandatory rules on carbon limits, like those of the failing Kyoto Protocol. As Copenhagen approaches within 3 months planners are considering providing credit for domestic programs, like the one India is considering.
India's ties to China on development make it seem the two are equal emitters of carbon. China is the worlds biggest carbon emitter. India emits a fifth of the carbon emissions of China, measured both in total and per capita. China comprises 23% of all worldwide carbon emissions while India contributes just 5%.
David Victor, an energy expert who researches India's Climate Change policies, believes the developing nations will break up as India distinguishes itself from nations like Mexico, Brazil and China that have more mature economies and greater carbon emissions. "The Indians need to be very careful that they are seen as a different kind of country."
Mr. Ramesh, India's Environmental Minister, said, "China has raced ahead of us, in conveying they are doing a lot on Climate Change." Mr. Ramesh said India has 2 basic requirements for Copenhagen. Industrialized countries must consent to steep cuts in carbon by 2020 and provide monetary and technical help to the Emerging World. India is still against mandatory carbon limits.
Mr. Ramesh said despite all the bad press about India on Climate Change, he said the Environmental Ministry is introducing legislation to the Indian Parliament to strengthen fuel efficiency standards, create voluntary targets to improve energy efficiency and promote solar power and implement clean coal technology among its utilities.
At the U.N. last month Mr. Ramesh highlighted the basic needs of India like increased forestation cover, lengthening a treaty on investment in Green Technology and more technological help.
For a long time, India defined its stance on Climate Change in geopolitical economic social justice and a national rights terms, claiming the Industrialized nations created Climate Change and the majority of response should come from the West.
Historically India has said legal limits on carbon would stunt India's economic development. This debate is still raging in India as part of the domestic debate on Climate Change. Mr. Singh was rebuked by members of Parliament after consenting last summer in Italy to prevent worldwide temperatures from increasing more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit from today.
Mr. Ramesh said its his responsibility to create a new domestic political partnership on how India can fruitfully work on Climate Change without jeopardizing India's economy, "without a solid domestic consensus, or even domestic constituency, we can not even think about engaging internationally. And this is also true of the United States", he added. "Its true of all democracies."
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