Predicting the consequences of global warming is one of the really difficult tasks for the world’s climate researchers. Firstly, because the natural processes that cause precipitation, storms, increases in sea level and other expected effects of global warming are dependent on many different factors. Secondly, because it is difficult to predict the size of the emissions of greenhouse gases in the coming decades, as this is determined to a great extent by political decisions and technological breakthroughs.
Many of the effects of global warming have been well-documented, and observations from real life are very much consistent with earlier predictions. It is the precise extent that is difficult to predict. Among the effects that can be predicted are:
More droughts and more flooding:
When the weather gets warmer, evaporation from both land and sea increases. This can cause drought in areas of the world where the increased evaporation is not compensated for by more precipitation. The extra water vapor in the atmosphere has to fall again as extra precipitation, which can cause flooding other places in the world.
Less ice and snow:
Glaciers are shrinking rapidly at present. The trend is for the ice to melt faster than estimated in the IPCC’s latest report. In areas that are dependent on melt water from mountain areas, this can cause drought and a lack of drinking water. According to the IPCC, up to a sixth of the world’s population lives in areas that will be affected by this.
More extreme weather incidents:
The warmer climate will most probably cause more heatwaves, more cases of heavy rainfall and also possibly an increase in the number and/or severity of storms.
Rising sea level:
The sea level rises for two reasons. Partly because of the melting ice and snow, and partly because of the thermal expansion of the sea. Thermal expansion takes a long time, but even an increase in temperature of two degrees Celsius is expected, in due time, to cause a rise in the water level of almost a metre.
In order to get an idea of the extent of the consequences, researchers typically work with scenarios that show various possible developments
Sunday, August 30, 2009
The Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms
The flexible mechanisms are among the most central points in the Kyoto Protocol and the object of extensive discussion, but at COP7 in Marrakesh in 2001 agreement was reached on their ultimate form. The mechanisms are called flexible, as they are intended to supplement the countries’ or companies’ own reductions in CO2. The issue of where in the world the reductions take place is irrelevant for the climate, and the flexible mechanisms allow this fact to be exploited. By using the mechanisms, companies and countries can choose to reduce CO2 emissions where it is most cost-effective, for example in a developing country. This also involves the transfer of technology, financing and skills to developing countries.
The Kyoto Protocol operates with three flexible mechanisms:
International Emissions Trading: The 37 countries that in the Kyoto Protocol have set targets for the quantity of greenhouse gases they are allowed to emit are able to trade these emissions permits among themselves. If a country has a surplus of these “CO2 quotas” because it has switched to a cleaner form of economy, it can sell them to one of the other countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation: Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are mechanisms whose purpose is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in concrete projects and concurrently to promote climate initiatives and sustainable development in developing countries. The projects generate CO2 credits that correspond to the reduction in greenhouse gases achieved by the project. The country that is hosting the JI or CDM project can sell the credits it obtains to companies or industrialised countries, which can use the credits to supplement domestic or internal initiatives.
One credit corresponds to one ton of CO2 emissions. CDM credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries with no reduction obligations in the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out in developing countries. JI credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries that have undertaken a reduction obligation for greenhouse gases in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out primarily in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Up until the summer of 2008 just over 1,100 CDM projects had been approved. In total they represent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of about 220 million tons of CO2 equivalents a year. The UNFCCC’s secretariat expects CDM projects covering a total of 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalents to be launched in the period from 2008 to 2012. There has been less activity involving JI, and 22 projects had been approved up to October 2008
The Kyoto Protocol operates with three flexible mechanisms:
International Emissions Trading: The 37 countries that in the Kyoto Protocol have set targets for the quantity of greenhouse gases they are allowed to emit are able to trade these emissions permits among themselves. If a country has a surplus of these “CO2 quotas” because it has switched to a cleaner form of economy, it can sell them to one of the other countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation: Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are mechanisms whose purpose is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in concrete projects and concurrently to promote climate initiatives and sustainable development in developing countries. The projects generate CO2 credits that correspond to the reduction in greenhouse gases achieved by the project. The country that is hosting the JI or CDM project can sell the credits it obtains to companies or industrialised countries, which can use the credits to supplement domestic or internal initiatives.
One credit corresponds to one ton of CO2 emissions. CDM credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries with no reduction obligations in the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out in developing countries. JI credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries that have undertaken a reduction obligation for greenhouse gases in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out primarily in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Up until the summer of 2008 just over 1,100 CDM projects had been approved. In total they represent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of about 220 million tons of CO2 equivalents a year. The UNFCCC’s secretariat expects CDM projects covering a total of 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalents to be launched in the period from 2008 to 2012. There has been less activity involving JI, and 22 projects had been approved up to October 2008
Which gases are greenhouse gases, and why?
A range of different gases can act as greenhouse gases. The common denominator for them is that they can absorb heat (thermal infrared radiation), which is emitted from the earth, and re-emit it.
When the sun shines on the earth, about 70 percent of the energy gets through the atmosphere. The remainder is retained or reflected by, for example, clouds. It is mainly invisible light that gets through.
In the earth’s surface the light is retained and converted into heat, which is sent back into space in the form of thermal infrared radiation – in the same way as a bonfire emits radiant heat. A part of this heat does not escape from the atmosphere, but is retained by greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane. The thermal radiation causes the gas molecules to vibrate with energy, until the energy is released and re-emitted as thermal radiation. In this way the atmosphere retains for a time a part of the energy the earth receives from the sun. This is the greenhouse effect.
The atmosphere consists mainly of nitrogen and oxygen. The molecules of these two gases are simple – they consist of only two atoms. They do not absorb thermal radiation and therefore they are not defined as greenhouse gases. Other molecules have a structure that can capture heat radiation.
The most significant greenhouse gas is water vapour. But water vapour stays in the atmosphere only very briefly, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is affected by other greenhouse gases, because warmer air causes increased evaporation from the oceans in particular.
The discussion about the anthropogenic greenhouse effect is mostly concentrated on the so-called ”long-lived” greenhouse gases. The most important ones are CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and CFC gases. In total they account for more than 97 per cent of the direct effect of the long-lived gases on how much heat is retained in the atmosphere.
When the sun shines on the earth, about 70 percent of the energy gets through the atmosphere. The remainder is retained or reflected by, for example, clouds. It is mainly invisible light that gets through.
In the earth’s surface the light is retained and converted into heat, which is sent back into space in the form of thermal infrared radiation – in the same way as a bonfire emits radiant heat. A part of this heat does not escape from the atmosphere, but is retained by greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane. The thermal radiation causes the gas molecules to vibrate with energy, until the energy is released and re-emitted as thermal radiation. In this way the atmosphere retains for a time a part of the energy the earth receives from the sun. This is the greenhouse effect.
The atmosphere consists mainly of nitrogen and oxygen. The molecules of these two gases are simple – they consist of only two atoms. They do not absorb thermal radiation and therefore they are not defined as greenhouse gases. Other molecules have a structure that can capture heat radiation.
The most significant greenhouse gas is water vapour. But water vapour stays in the atmosphere only very briefly, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is affected by other greenhouse gases, because warmer air causes increased evaporation from the oceans in particular.
The discussion about the anthropogenic greenhouse effect is mostly concentrated on the so-called ”long-lived” greenhouse gases. The most important ones are CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and CFC gases. In total they account for more than 97 per cent of the direct effect of the long-lived gases on how much heat is retained in the atmosphere.
What is the greenhouse effect and global warming?
The greenhouse effect is a natural mechanism that retains the heat emitted from the earth’s surface. The earth’s average temperature is at the moment around 14 degrees celsius (57 degrees fahrenheit). If the natural greenhouse effect did not exist, the average temperature would be around minus 19 degrees celsius (minus 2 degrees fahrenheit).The greenhouse effect is caused by a range of different gases in the earth’s atmosphere. Water vapour makes the most significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, followed by CO2. The atmospheric content of greenhouse gases – in particular CO2 – and the consequences for the climate are being discussed because the content of these gases in the atmosphere has risen precipitously in a period covering approximately the latest 250 years, and especially the last 50.
At present the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 385 ppm (parts per million). Before industrialization it was about 280 ppm. Analyses of air contained in ice from the Antarctic ice cap show that there is far more CO2 in the air today than at any time in the last 650,000 years.
The consequence is that the greenhouse effect is becoming stronger, and therefore the earth is becoming warmer. How much warmer has, however, been a matter of dispute. The most recent assessment report from the IPCC is from 2007. It concludes that the earth’s average temperature has risen by 0.74 degrees in the period from 1906 to 2005. The warming is stronger over land areas than over the sea, and accordingly it is strongest in the northern hemisphere. At the same time occurrences of heat waves and violent downpours have also increased, the oceans have risen, and the ice at the world’s poles and on its mountains has begun to melt. All of these effects are predictable in the event of global warming.
The IPCC’s most recent assessment report concludes that the average temperature will continue to rise, but that the extent and the duration of this rise, and the severity of its consequences, depend on how quickly and how effectively emissions of greenhouse gases can be restricted and, over time, reduced.
At present the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 385 ppm (parts per million). Before industrialization it was about 280 ppm. Analyses of air contained in ice from the Antarctic ice cap show that there is far more CO2 in the air today than at any time in the last 650,000 years.
The consequence is that the greenhouse effect is becoming stronger, and therefore the earth is becoming warmer. How much warmer has, however, been a matter of dispute. The most recent assessment report from the IPCC is from 2007. It concludes that the earth’s average temperature has risen by 0.74 degrees in the period from 1906 to 2005. The warming is stronger over land areas than over the sea, and accordingly it is strongest in the northern hemisphere. At the same time occurrences of heat waves and violent downpours have also increased, the oceans have risen, and the ice at the world’s poles and on its mountains has begun to melt. All of these effects are predictable in the event of global warming.
The IPCC’s most recent assessment report concludes that the average temperature will continue to rise, but that the extent and the duration of this rise, and the severity of its consequences, depend on how quickly and how effectively emissions of greenhouse gases can be restricted and, over time, reduced.
The relationship between the IPCC and the UNFCCC
There is a close relationship between the IPCC and the international efforts to fight global warming. The UN’s climate convention, the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), establishes the framework within which by far the largest part of the international cooperation on climate takes place.
It was the first assessment report from the IPCC that in 1990 was the catalyst for the arrival of climate on the political agenda. After merely two years the text for the climate convention was adopted in New York in May 1992. Later the same year the convention was signed by more than 150 countries at the UN's Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio De Janeiro. The countries that have ratified the convention meet every year at the COP meetings (Conference of the Parties to the Convention).Because the IPCC’s reports have both scientific and political support, they are the foundation upon which the UNFCCC cooperation is based. In addition the IPCC is a UN agency, and the UNFCCC’s technical and scientific subsidiary body (SBSTA) can ask the IPCC for relevant studies in relation to the negotiations. Accordingly it is the IPCC that draws up guidelines for how the individual countries are to calculate their emissions of greenhouse gases.
It was the first assessment report from the IPCC that in 1990 was the catalyst for the arrival of climate on the political agenda. After merely two years the text for the climate convention was adopted in New York in May 1992. Later the same year the convention was signed by more than 150 countries at the UN's Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio De Janeiro. The countries that have ratified the convention meet every year at the COP meetings (Conference of the Parties to the Convention).Because the IPCC’s reports have both scientific and political support, they are the foundation upon which the UNFCCC cooperation is based. In addition the IPCC is a UN agency, and the UNFCCC’s technical and scientific subsidiary body (SBSTA) can ask the IPCC for relevant studies in relation to the negotiations. Accordingly it is the IPCC that draws up guidelines for how the individual countries are to calculate their emissions of greenhouse gases.
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
In 1990, the United Nations General Assembly decided to start work on a climate change convention. The endeavors led to 154 countries signing the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) at the UN Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Since then, 192 countries including the USA have ratified the convention.
The goals of the climate change convention are to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate changes.
According to the objective paragraph, this stabilization must occur in such a way as to give ecosystems the opportunity to adapt naturally. This means that food safety must not be compromised, and that the potential to create sustainable social and economic development must not be endangered.
Each year, a Conference of the Parties is held, where the countries which have ratified the convention meet and discuss how the convention’s goals can be implemented in practice. One of the tools, which the parties have agreed upon, is the Kyoto Protocol.
The climate change convention is administered by the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn. The secretariat’s tasks include monitoring the development in the individual countries’ CO2 emissions, as well as keeping watch on which countries ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
The goals of the climate change convention are to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate changes.
According to the objective paragraph, this stabilization must occur in such a way as to give ecosystems the opportunity to adapt naturally. This means that food safety must not be compromised, and that the potential to create sustainable social and economic development must not be endangered.
Each year, a Conference of the Parties is held, where the countries which have ratified the convention meet and discuss how the convention’s goals can be implemented in practice. One of the tools, which the parties have agreed upon, is the Kyoto Protocol.
The climate change convention is administered by the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn. The secretariat’s tasks include monitoring the development in the individual countries’ CO2 emissions, as well as keeping watch on which countries ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was established in 1988 by the special UN organizations for environment (UNEP) and meteorology (WMO) following the Brundtland Report ”Our Common Future”.
The goal of IPCC is to use scientific literature to evaluate the extent and understanding of climate changes and their effects, as well as the potential to adapt to or counteract anticipated climate changes.
It is a key point that the work in the United Nations Climate Change Panel follows normal procedures for scientific publications, in particular the principle of peer review. The scientific authors of the IPCC reports are all selected for reasons of their scientific expertise.
The authors’ task is to collate and evaluate the knowledge that is available in international scientific, technical and socio-economic literature using traditional scientific methods and working principles. Then, the reports are sent to specialists for review, and in a second round to government representatives from the member countries of the organizations.
Thus there are over 1200 independent scientific authors and 2500 reviewers who have taken part in the preparation of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007.
IPCC's secretariat is based in Geneva and is organized into three working groups and one Task Force.
The first working group evaluates literature in natural science about climate and climate change. The second is concerned with the consequences of climate change, and the potential for adapting to them, while the third working group evaluates the potential for reducing the planet’s emissions of greenhouse gases, and thus limiting the climate changes. Finally, the Task Force is responsible for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program.
IPCC has published four Assessment Reports (in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007). Each Assessment Report consists of contributions from the three working groups and a Synthesis Report.
The Fourth Assessment Report has contributed to both the public and politicians gaining increased awareness that climate changes are man-made and are happening faster than earlier assumed. The report shows that climate changes are a reality today, and that the main culprit is greenhouse gas emissions caused by man, and notably CO2 emissions
The goal of IPCC is to use scientific literature to evaluate the extent and understanding of climate changes and their effects, as well as the potential to adapt to or counteract anticipated climate changes.
It is a key point that the work in the United Nations Climate Change Panel follows normal procedures for scientific publications, in particular the principle of peer review. The scientific authors of the IPCC reports are all selected for reasons of their scientific expertise.
The authors’ task is to collate and evaluate the knowledge that is available in international scientific, technical and socio-economic literature using traditional scientific methods and working principles. Then, the reports are sent to specialists for review, and in a second round to government representatives from the member countries of the organizations.
Thus there are over 1200 independent scientific authors and 2500 reviewers who have taken part in the preparation of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007.
IPCC's secretariat is based in Geneva and is organized into three working groups and one Task Force.
The first working group evaluates literature in natural science about climate and climate change. The second is concerned with the consequences of climate change, and the potential for adapting to them, while the third working group evaluates the potential for reducing the planet’s emissions of greenhouse gases, and thus limiting the climate changes. Finally, the Task Force is responsible for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program.
IPCC has published four Assessment Reports (in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007). Each Assessment Report consists of contributions from the three working groups and a Synthesis Report.
The Fourth Assessment Report has contributed to both the public and politicians gaining increased awareness that climate changes are man-made and are happening faster than earlier assumed. The report shows that climate changes are a reality today, and that the main culprit is greenhouse gas emissions caused by man, and notably CO2 emissions
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