"The Arctic is experiencing its warmest temperatures in 2,000 years, even though it should be cooling because of changes in the Earth's orbit that cause the region to get less direct sunlight
If it hadn't been for the increase in human-produced greenhouse gases, summer temperatures in the Arctic should have cooled gradually over the last century," says Bette Otto-Bliesner of National Center for Atmospheric, USA and co-author of a study of Arctic temperatures published in the journal Science.
The most recent 10-year interval, 1999-2008, was the warmest of the last 2,000 years in the Arctic, according to the researchers led by Darrell S. Kaufman, a professor of geology and environmental science at Northern Arizona University, USA.
Summer temperatures in the Arctic averaged 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) warmer than would have been expected if the cooling had continued, the researchers says.
It is the latest in a drumbeat of reports on warming conditions in the Arctic, including:
—A marine scientist reports that Alaskan waters are turning acidic from absorbing greenhouse gases faster than tropical waters, potentially endangering the state's 4.6 billion dollars fishing industry.
—NASA satellite measurements show that sea ice in the Arctic is more than just shrinking in area; it is thinning dramatically. The volume of older crucial sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk by 57 percent from the winter of 2004 to 2008.
—Global warming effects in Alaska also include shrinking glaciers, coastal erosion and the march north of destructive forest beetles formerly held in check by cold winters.
And as land-based ice melts, such as the massive Greenland ice cap, sea levels could rise across the world, to threaten millions who live in coastal cities.
In addition as the Arctic warms there is less snow and ice to reflect solar energy back into space and the newly exposed dark soil and dark ocean surfaces absorb solar energy and warm further, accelerating the warming process.
The Arctic cooling had been the result of a 21,000-year cycle in the Earth's movement that caused the far north to get progressively less summertime energy from the sun for the last 8,000 years. That process will not be reversed for another several thousand years.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Finance ministers' report puts pressure on major developing countries
Ahead of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, USA, by the end of this month, ministers of finance from the world’s largest economies are meeting in London today. According to The Times of India, an overview paper from the G-20 secretariat has “ignored India’s submissions and demanded that (India) impose carbon taxation and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.”
The daily quotes an anonymous “senior Indian official”:
“Despite strong opposition from key developing countries, including India, the G-20 secretariat has sent this overview which more or less mimics the base papers we had rejected as not representative of the views and concerns of all G-20 member countries.”
The G-20 climate change finance report under preparation, originates from the Major Economies Forum (MEF) held in Italy in the beginning of July this year. Here India signed a statement which calls for global warming to be kept below 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels. India has since insisted that MEF discussions are informal and do not relate to the formal discussions under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and
The daily quotes an anonymous “senior Indian official”:
“Despite strong opposition from key developing countries, including India, the G-20 secretariat has sent this overview which more or less mimics the base papers we had rejected as not representative of the views and concerns of all G-20 member countries.”
The G-20 climate change finance report under preparation, originates from the Major Economies Forum (MEF) held in Italy in the beginning of July this year. Here India signed a statement which calls for global warming to be kept below 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels. India has since insisted that MEF discussions are informal and do not relate to the formal discussions under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and
India could be climate deal maker
India will be a “potential deal maker” at the upcoming UN conference on climate change this December, Ed Miliband, UK Climate Change Secretary, tells The Guardian:
“India has very stretching targets on solar energy, on renewable energy (…) it has big ambitions on energy efficiency (…) I think India wants to be a deal maker not a deal breaker in Copenhagen.”
The British minister’s hopes would probably be further encouraged by official statements in an Indian newspaper this week.
“We are (…) hoping to curb ten percent of the current level of emissions by 2012 and attract foreign investment worth 16 billion US dollars through over 1,000 greenhouse gas mitigation projects,” Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh tells The Economic Times (of India).
According to the newspaper, India wants to play a key role in getting agreement especially on three issues in Copenhagen: Forestry for mitigating climate change effects, Clean Development Mechanism and technology cooperation.
“India has very stretching targets on solar energy, on renewable energy (…) it has big ambitions on energy efficiency (…) I think India wants to be a deal maker not a deal breaker in Copenhagen.”
The British minister’s hopes would probably be further encouraged by official statements in an Indian newspaper this week.
“We are (…) hoping to curb ten percent of the current level of emissions by 2012 and attract foreign investment worth 16 billion US dollars through over 1,000 greenhouse gas mitigation projects,” Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh tells The Economic Times (of India).
According to the newspaper, India wants to play a key role in getting agreement especially on three issues in Copenhagen: Forestry for mitigating climate change effects, Clean Development Mechanism and technology cooperation.
Switzerland commits to a 20 percent CO2 cut
Yesterday, the Swiss government committed to cut its carbon emissions by at least 20 percent from its 1990 levels by 2020. According to Reuters, the Swiss proposal is almost identical with a proposal by the European Union – of which it is not a member. The cut is larger than the average cuts planned by industrialized nations of between 10 and 14 percent. However, the proposal is not as comprehensive as the demands of a public referendum proposal for a cut of at least 30 percent, Reuters reports. "By adopting such weak climate targets, the Swiss government ignores scientific facts and refuses to take its responsibilities in the struggle against climate change," says Alexander Hauri, who leads Greenpeace Switzerland's climate campaign, according to AFP. In 2007, a UN panel of climate experts recommended cuts of between 25 and 40 percent by 2020 to avoid the worst of global warming in order to prevent dangerous effects of climate change
Sunday, August 30, 2009
What consequences can we expect, and what can we do?
Predicting the consequences of global warming is one of the really difficult tasks for the world’s climate researchers. Firstly, because the natural processes that cause precipitation, storms, increases in sea level and other expected effects of global warming are dependent on many different factors. Secondly, because it is difficult to predict the size of the emissions of greenhouse gases in the coming decades, as this is determined to a great extent by political decisions and technological breakthroughs.
Many of the effects of global warming have been well-documented, and observations from real life are very much consistent with earlier predictions. It is the precise extent that is difficult to predict. Among the effects that can be predicted are:
More droughts and more flooding:
When the weather gets warmer, evaporation from both land and sea increases. This can cause drought in areas of the world where the increased evaporation is not compensated for by more precipitation. The extra water vapor in the atmosphere has to fall again as extra precipitation, which can cause flooding other places in the world.
Less ice and snow:
Glaciers are shrinking rapidly at present. The trend is for the ice to melt faster than estimated in the IPCC’s latest report. In areas that are dependent on melt water from mountain areas, this can cause drought and a lack of drinking water. According to the IPCC, up to a sixth of the world’s population lives in areas that will be affected by this.
More extreme weather incidents:
The warmer climate will most probably cause more heatwaves, more cases of heavy rainfall and also possibly an increase in the number and/or severity of storms.
Rising sea level:
The sea level rises for two reasons. Partly because of the melting ice and snow, and partly because of the thermal expansion of the sea. Thermal expansion takes a long time, but even an increase in temperature of two degrees Celsius is expected, in due time, to cause a rise in the water level of almost a metre.
In order to get an idea of the extent of the consequences, researchers typically work with scenarios that show various possible developments
Many of the effects of global warming have been well-documented, and observations from real life are very much consistent with earlier predictions. It is the precise extent that is difficult to predict. Among the effects that can be predicted are:
More droughts and more flooding:
When the weather gets warmer, evaporation from both land and sea increases. This can cause drought in areas of the world where the increased evaporation is not compensated for by more precipitation. The extra water vapor in the atmosphere has to fall again as extra precipitation, which can cause flooding other places in the world.
Less ice and snow:
Glaciers are shrinking rapidly at present. The trend is for the ice to melt faster than estimated in the IPCC’s latest report. In areas that are dependent on melt water from mountain areas, this can cause drought and a lack of drinking water. According to the IPCC, up to a sixth of the world’s population lives in areas that will be affected by this.
More extreme weather incidents:
The warmer climate will most probably cause more heatwaves, more cases of heavy rainfall and also possibly an increase in the number and/or severity of storms.
Rising sea level:
The sea level rises for two reasons. Partly because of the melting ice and snow, and partly because of the thermal expansion of the sea. Thermal expansion takes a long time, but even an increase in temperature of two degrees Celsius is expected, in due time, to cause a rise in the water level of almost a metre.
In order to get an idea of the extent of the consequences, researchers typically work with scenarios that show various possible developments
The Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms
The flexible mechanisms are among the most central points in the Kyoto Protocol and the object of extensive discussion, but at COP7 in Marrakesh in 2001 agreement was reached on their ultimate form. The mechanisms are called flexible, as they are intended to supplement the countries’ or companies’ own reductions in CO2. The issue of where in the world the reductions take place is irrelevant for the climate, and the flexible mechanisms allow this fact to be exploited. By using the mechanisms, companies and countries can choose to reduce CO2 emissions where it is most cost-effective, for example in a developing country. This also involves the transfer of technology, financing and skills to developing countries.
The Kyoto Protocol operates with three flexible mechanisms:
International Emissions Trading: The 37 countries that in the Kyoto Protocol have set targets for the quantity of greenhouse gases they are allowed to emit are able to trade these emissions permits among themselves. If a country has a surplus of these “CO2 quotas” because it has switched to a cleaner form of economy, it can sell them to one of the other countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation: Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are mechanisms whose purpose is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in concrete projects and concurrently to promote climate initiatives and sustainable development in developing countries. The projects generate CO2 credits that correspond to the reduction in greenhouse gases achieved by the project. The country that is hosting the JI or CDM project can sell the credits it obtains to companies or industrialised countries, which can use the credits to supplement domestic or internal initiatives.
One credit corresponds to one ton of CO2 emissions. CDM credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries with no reduction obligations in the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out in developing countries. JI credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries that have undertaken a reduction obligation for greenhouse gases in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out primarily in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Up until the summer of 2008 just over 1,100 CDM projects had been approved. In total they represent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of about 220 million tons of CO2 equivalents a year. The UNFCCC’s secretariat expects CDM projects covering a total of 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalents to be launched in the period from 2008 to 2012. There has been less activity involving JI, and 22 projects had been approved up to October 2008
The Kyoto Protocol operates with three flexible mechanisms:
International Emissions Trading: The 37 countries that in the Kyoto Protocol have set targets for the quantity of greenhouse gases they are allowed to emit are able to trade these emissions permits among themselves. If a country has a surplus of these “CO2 quotas” because it has switched to a cleaner form of economy, it can sell them to one of the other countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation: Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are mechanisms whose purpose is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in concrete projects and concurrently to promote climate initiatives and sustainable development in developing countries. The projects generate CO2 credits that correspond to the reduction in greenhouse gases achieved by the project. The country that is hosting the JI or CDM project can sell the credits it obtains to companies or industrialised countries, which can use the credits to supplement domestic or internal initiatives.
One credit corresponds to one ton of CO2 emissions. CDM credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries with no reduction obligations in the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out in developing countries. JI credits are reductions from concrete projects in countries that have undertaken a reduction obligation for greenhouse gases in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. These projects are carried out primarily in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Up until the summer of 2008 just over 1,100 CDM projects had been approved. In total they represent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of about 220 million tons of CO2 equivalents a year. The UNFCCC’s secretariat expects CDM projects covering a total of 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalents to be launched in the period from 2008 to 2012. There has been less activity involving JI, and 22 projects had been approved up to October 2008
Which gases are greenhouse gases, and why?
A range of different gases can act as greenhouse gases. The common denominator for them is that they can absorb heat (thermal infrared radiation), which is emitted from the earth, and re-emit it.
When the sun shines on the earth, about 70 percent of the energy gets through the atmosphere. The remainder is retained or reflected by, for example, clouds. It is mainly invisible light that gets through.
In the earth’s surface the light is retained and converted into heat, which is sent back into space in the form of thermal infrared radiation – in the same way as a bonfire emits radiant heat. A part of this heat does not escape from the atmosphere, but is retained by greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane. The thermal radiation causes the gas molecules to vibrate with energy, until the energy is released and re-emitted as thermal radiation. In this way the atmosphere retains for a time a part of the energy the earth receives from the sun. This is the greenhouse effect.
The atmosphere consists mainly of nitrogen and oxygen. The molecules of these two gases are simple – they consist of only two atoms. They do not absorb thermal radiation and therefore they are not defined as greenhouse gases. Other molecules have a structure that can capture heat radiation.
The most significant greenhouse gas is water vapour. But water vapour stays in the atmosphere only very briefly, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is affected by other greenhouse gases, because warmer air causes increased evaporation from the oceans in particular.
The discussion about the anthropogenic greenhouse effect is mostly concentrated on the so-called ”long-lived” greenhouse gases. The most important ones are CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and CFC gases. In total they account for more than 97 per cent of the direct effect of the long-lived gases on how much heat is retained in the atmosphere.
When the sun shines on the earth, about 70 percent of the energy gets through the atmosphere. The remainder is retained or reflected by, for example, clouds. It is mainly invisible light that gets through.
In the earth’s surface the light is retained and converted into heat, which is sent back into space in the form of thermal infrared radiation – in the same way as a bonfire emits radiant heat. A part of this heat does not escape from the atmosphere, but is retained by greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane. The thermal radiation causes the gas molecules to vibrate with energy, until the energy is released and re-emitted as thermal radiation. In this way the atmosphere retains for a time a part of the energy the earth receives from the sun. This is the greenhouse effect.
The atmosphere consists mainly of nitrogen and oxygen. The molecules of these two gases are simple – they consist of only two atoms. They do not absorb thermal radiation and therefore they are not defined as greenhouse gases. Other molecules have a structure that can capture heat radiation.
The most significant greenhouse gas is water vapour. But water vapour stays in the atmosphere only very briefly, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is affected by other greenhouse gases, because warmer air causes increased evaporation from the oceans in particular.
The discussion about the anthropogenic greenhouse effect is mostly concentrated on the so-called ”long-lived” greenhouse gases. The most important ones are CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and CFC gases. In total they account for more than 97 per cent of the direct effect of the long-lived gases on how much heat is retained in the atmosphere.
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