Reeling from a spate of deadly bombings, India is poised to win support from its neighbors for an accord to share intelligence about terrorism. Its main regional rival, Pakistan, likely will sign up to the agreement, though it may struggle to comply.
Foreign ministers from India, Pakistan and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation's six other member nations yesterday approved the draft document, which calls for helping each other fight crime. The ministers endorsed a proposal, backed by India and rebel-plagued Sri Lanka, to classify terrorism as a crime.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Pakistan's Yousuf Raza Gilani and Saarc's other leaders probably will sign the deal at the group's annual two-day summit, which starts tomorrow in Colombo, Sri Lanka's capital. The agreement calls on members to give each other ``the widest possible measure'' of legal assistance in fighting crime. There are no penalties for not abiding by it.
``Pakistan might go along with a general agreement on terrorism,'' said Seema Desai, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a London-based political-risk advisory firm. ``The idea that Pakistan will hand over substantive information is unlikely.''
Cross-Border Help
Cross-border help in investigations and prosecutions will be a focus of the summit. The other Saarc members are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives and Nepal. Officials from Japan, China, South Korea, the U.S. and the European Union will attend as observers.
``For the first time a consensus emerged on including the word terrorism'' in the definition of crime, Sri Lanka's Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama said after meeting his counterparts yesterday. ``This is a landmark event that will help Saarc combat terrorism.''
Bombings take a toll in South Asia with al-Qaeda active in Pakistan and Afghanistan and in Sri Lanka where the Tamil Tigers have been fighting for an independent homeland for 25 years.
Last week in India, at least 52 people died in 23 blasts in two cities. On July 7, a suicide bomber targeted India's embassy in the Afghan capital, killing at least 40 people. The Afghan and Indian governments said the attack was carried out with the assistance of Pakistan's intelligence service. Pakistan denied the claims.
Regional Security
``Saarc governments have a collective responsibility to ensure that growth and development within the region takes place in a crime-free atmosphere, where people feel secure,'' India's Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said July 24. ``The recent bomb blasts in Kabul that targeted our embassy emphasize how vulnerable South Asia continues to be on terrorism.''
Members of Pakistan's spy agency assisted militant groups in planning the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, the New York Times reported today, citing unidentified U.S. officials. The findings were based on intercepted communications between militants and Pakistani officers, the paper said.
While Pakistan's intelligence services are under the prime minister's office, the director is always a military officer. The current military supremo, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, served as director until he replaced President Pervez Musharraf as army chief of staff in October.
More Accountable
An attempt to make the Inter-Services Intelligence more accountable to the elected government failed this month when a decision to place the agency under the Interior Ministry was reversed in less than 24 hours.
Pakistan is also under pressure from the U.S., which blames the new civilian government's less aggressive approach for increased Taliban and al-Qaeda attacks on American forces in neighboring Afghanistan. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and U.S. intelligence agencies say Islamic militants use bases in Pakistan's northwestern tribal areas to train, re-arm and plan attacks against troops across the border and beyond.
``Pakistan has taken a number of measures, backed by appropriate legislation, to counter the menaces of drugs and human trafficking and terrorism,'' Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told Saarc ministers, according to a statement on the ministry's Web site. ``We welcome the finalization of the Saarc Convention on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters.''
Three Wars
India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed, have fought three wars since they gained independence from the U.K. in 1947, two over the Himalayan region of Kashmir, which both claim as their territory. India accuses Pakistan of backing separatists fighting its rule in Jammu and Kashmir, the country's only Muslim-majority state. Pakistan denies the accusation, saying it provides only moral support for a freedom struggle. The hostility has prevented India and Pakistan from cutting military spending, reducing the money available for health and education.
India, where levels of under-nourished children are double that in Sub-Saharan Africa, increased its defense expenditures by 10 percent this year to 1.06 trillion rupees ($23 billion). Pakistan, where the World Bank says only 57 percent of children complete primary school, has raised its defense budget by 8 percent to 296 billion rupees ($4.1 billion).
``Most militants are drawn to arms because they are deprived of basic necessities of life,'' said Rajiv Kumar, director at the New Delhi-based Indian Council For Research on International Economic Relations. ``Economic development is equally important to quell terrorism.''
Hampering Ties
The nations in Saarc account for 22 percent of the world's population and 2 percent of its economic output. Regional hostility has hampered economic ties. When Saarc was established in 1985, intra-regional trade was 3.4 percent of the countries' total. After 23 years, it remains less than 5 percent, according to the Saarc Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
By comparison, trade among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, known as Asean, accounts for 30 percent of their total. Intra-European Union commerce contributes about 55 percent. While Saarc members adopted free trade for goods in 2004, the policy hasn't spurred commerce because of the rivalry between India and Pakistan. The two nations account for more than four-fifths of the $1.2 trillion South Asian economy.
Pakistan bans imports from India of 4,000 items, mainly manufactured goods such as automobiles and drugs, even though India has granted most-favored nation status to Pakistan, said Ameeta Sarkar, head of the South Asia division at the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry in New Delhi.
WTO Collapse
The collapse of global trade talks this week at the World Trade Organization in Geneva may help increase the relevance of regional groupings like Saarc.
``With no new WTO deal, moving trade regionally becomes more important,'' said Saman Kelegama, executive director of the Institute of Policy Studies in Colombo. ``The neighbors in South Asia should see India as an opportunity, and not as a threat.''
Sri Lanka has already forged a free-trade agreement with India to take advantage of the world's second-fastest growing economy after China. India also has open borders with Bhutan and Nepal. Pakistan has a free trade accord with Sri Lanka.
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