Cong gaining foothold in UP, Bihar?

It is an idea which crops up every now and then. But this time the buzz from the baking lands of Bihar and UP is that Congress, first
time since Mandal and Mandir squeezed it out of power matrix, is finding a connect with voters.

The voting trends in the Hindi heartland suggest that Congress's attempt at revival is not going unnoticed.

Though signs of an organisational resurgence in the past proved to be deceptive, with the party sacrificing whatever limited gains it made at the altar of coalition compulsions, it may sustain this time owing to Rahul Gandhi's personal investment in the project. If so, it will have serious consequences for future cowbelt polity.

Reports say Congress has inserted itself in many contests in UP and Bihar, a far cry from earlier faceoffs as a bit player.

The first two phases in UP saw Congress seriously vie for 11 of 33 seats, while the party is said to have given jitters to the frontrunners SP and BSP in another handful of the lot that were up for grabs on Thursday. Its performance on quite a few seats — among them Kushinagar, Gonda, Barabanki, Unnao, Maharajganj — are surprising UP-watchers too.

The same is true for Bihar where Congress, having dumped trusted ally Lalu Prasad over the snub of three-seat offer, is seen as holding its own in many places and fancying its chances in more than what it won in 2004.

The surge in goodwill for Congress may not translate into wins, but what is happening may still have far-reaching consequences.

There are indications that the bid to make the party fighting fit will not stop with elections, as has often happened in past. Sources said Rahul had personally overseen the decisions against engaging SP and RJD in lop-sided deals and will ensure continuity after May 16.

With regional parties having had around two decade run, Congress's wading into the poll battle solo in two states this year has rekindled the interest among social groups which left its fold for OBC outfits and BJP in the wake of Mandal and Mandir tremors, pulling the rug from under its feet.

Reports say Muslims and Brahmins, two of Congress core support bases in its heydays, have been among first to give it a dekko. These communities have journeyed through regional outfits and may be toying with homecoming.

That Congress is baiting them from a position of strength — as a frontrunner for power after having already run a full-tenure government in Delhi — is helping its cause.

Also, the fact that SP and RJD pursued Congress for tieups has taken a message to voters that it was a party worth its salt, testify insiders.

At the same time, the pragmatism of fielding politically strong defectors — be it Rajaram Pal in Akbarpur or Sadhu Yadav in Bettiah — seems to be egging the interested groups towards "winnable" candidates.

Irrespective of the tally it clocks, Congress is to continue its engagement in Bihar with assembly polls barely over a year away. It is felt the lure of candidatures and offices would keep freshly-generated energy among workers going. In UP, it would have to find ways of doing it, but insiders are hopeful.

Such a sustained project to revive the party in states which send 120 MPs to Lok Sabha is politically significant. Since the project's success would comeat the cost of regional outfits, Congress is thus likely to attract their hostility. For its part, Congress will also find it difficult to have a long-term and close partnership at the Centre with the heartland players whom it will have to contend against in UP and Bihar.

The downside, it is felt, is that getting support from SP or RJD or for that matter JD(U) may become a difficult or complicated proposition.

The power politics may be tantalisingly poised if Congress continues to walk the revival path.