Gold world looks at Akshaya Tritiya with hope

India's benchmark stock index, Sensex, is up; and investors are slowly going back to equity markets from bullion. Because, gold is losing its charm as a safe haven investment. And, gold prices are sliding slowly.

It seems investors have got the hint and they are slowly shifting their money from gold to equity. And, this is happening at a time when Akshaya Tritiya is round the corner — on April 27 — to be precise. That is a day when Indians buy gold and silver as a symbol of good fortunes. And, a year like 2009, which is supposed to be the worst one in the recent past, everybody will need a lot of luck to tide over the global crisis.

So will gold bring luck to people this Akshaya Tritiya? It may. If you take the cues from the market, it is obvious that gold prices are dipping and at a time when sales are bound to shoot up on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya. Remember, jewellery sales were downs to unimaginable levels in India and traders had stopped import of the yellow metal in February and March.

In normal circumstances, India is the top importer of the metal. But in February and March India shipped tonnes of gold to Dubai — it came from scarp gold sales.

Now, when the prices are dipping below Rs 14K, there is a chance that this Akshaya Tritiya people will flock to jewellery shops to boost their fortunes.

And, jewelers know that. The obvious hint lies in the rise in imports in April. In the first fortnight of the month around 10 tonnes of gold has been imported to India. Following this, global markets are now looking at Indian demand for further cues.

Silver import has also begun. Though some silver stock was available, more imports were expected on falling prices.

Gold prices came down by 10.80 per cent, or by Rs 285, to Rs 14,045 per 10 gm in the Mumbai spot market this week compared with its previous close. It hit the peak of

Rs 15,745 on February 21. Silver on Friday fell by 10.93 per cent, or Rs 850, to Rs 20,690 a kg from its previous close.

Prices were rising internationally and gold was quoted at a discount (to landed cost) in India. This has led to a halt in import, while premium in overseas markets tempted arbitrageurs to export gold in the form of crude jewellery.

Even as gold is falling in international markets, almost 14 per cent down from $1,000 per ounce in the third week February to $868 on Friday, traders are awaiting demand from India ahead of the festival on April 27.

Globally, investors have booked some profit, resulting in a fall in prices, but investors may re-enter the market soon. Even the traders in Mumbai’s jewellery market expect the demand to re-emerge.