California's unemployment rate basically flattened in April, but the first good news in a year brought little cheer to experts.
Although the often volatile rate dropped to 11% from March's 11.2%, the Golden State still lost 63,700 jobs during the month, the state Employment Development Department reported today.
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And more losses could be in store this summer as school districts, cities, counties and the state government react to plunging tax revenues by laying off large numbers of teachers and civil servants, economists warn.
"It's a mixed report," said Howard Roth, chief economist for the state Department of Finance. "Unemployment went down, but the job loss is still substantial."
Another economist, Stephen Levy of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto, was more stark in his appraisal. The unemployment "decline is a false signal that economic recovery is underway," he said.
California Jobless
The number of unemployed in California has increased by 842,800 since April 2008, when the jobless rate stood at just 6.6%.
The small drop in unemployment statewide last month was mirrored in Southern California. Unemployment fell from 11.3% to 11% in Los Angeles County. In the Inland Empire, it dropped from 13% to 12.6%. The rate in Orange County went from 8.6% to 8.3%. And in Ventura County, it fell from 9.7% to 9.2%.
California currently has nation's the fifth-worst employment climate, ranking behind Michigan at 12.9%, Oregon at 12%, South Carolina at 11.5% and Rhode Island at 11.1%.
Over the last few months, California actually has moved down a couple of spots in the rankings as the deepening recession sunk its claws more deeply into western and southeastern states.
"It's too early to say the economy is stabilizing, but it is sliding at a slower pace," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University-Channel Islands. "Before we hit bottom, we need to slow the rate of descent."
Sohn said he detects hints of renewed economic vitality in the housing, retail sales and health care areas. But, the monthly state jobs reported significant job gains in only one category, government.
And that uptick shouldn't last when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature start hacking education, social services, health care and prison budgets, economist Levy predicted.
"There is nothing but bad news for state and local government budgets in the April jobs report," he says.
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