Global warming could rain on India's growth parade: Stern report

'The Economics of Climate Change' a landmark report by Sir Nicholas Stern has some dire predictions about the impact global warming will have on India's economic prospects. For instance, an estimated 100 cm rise in sea level could lead to a loss of US$ 1,259 million or the equivalent of 0.36% of India's GNP
Global warming and subsequent changes in climate could severely hamper India's robust growth unless steps are taken to address the effects of increased surface temperature and its effect on monsoon patterns and river flow, according to the recently released Stern review on the economic impact of climate change.
Some of the key predictions for India, over the next 100 years, in the 700-page British government-commissioned report are:
Regional climate models suggest a 2.5-5 degree Celsius rise in mean surface temperature. Within India, northern India will become warmer.
A 20% increase in summer monsoon rainfall. Instances of extreme temperature and precipitation are expected to rise.
All Indian states will experience increased rainfall, except Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu where rainfall will decrease. Extreme precipitation will increase, particularly along the western coast and west central India.
The country's hydrological cycle will most likely be altered. Drought and flood intensity will increase. The Krishna, Narmada, Cauvery and Tapi river basins will experience severe water stress and drought conditions, and the Mahanadi, Godavari and Brahmani will experience enhanced flooding.
Crop yields will decrease with increases in temperature and precipitation. It is predicted that wheat crop losses will be greater, especially rabi crops. This will threaten the country's food security.
Coastal agriculture will suffer the most -- Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh will face yield reductions; West Bengal, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh will gain marginally.
A 100 cm rise in sea level could lead to a loss of US$ 1,259 million -- the equivalent of 0.36% of India's GNP.
There will be an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, particularly in the post-monsoon period. Flooding will increase in low-lying coastal areas.
Malaria will continue to be endemic in traditionally malaria-prone states (Orissa, West Bengal, southern parts of Assam and north West Bengal). It may also shift from the central Indian region to the southwestern coastal states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. New regions -- Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram -- will become malaria-prone; the disease's transmission duration window will widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states.
India's economic losses due to increases in temperature are estimated to be between 9-25%. GDP loss may amount to 0.67% annually.