What will life be like in Lancaster County 40 years from now?
A climate more like Georgia or Maryland, depending on the severity of global warming, according to a new state-issued report on the long-term effects of climate change in Pennsylvania.
It will be rainier, especially in winter, though droughts also will be more common. There will be more summertime cloudbursts.
There will be less snow and more cold-rain events. You'll have to go out of state to use your snowmobiles, cross-country skis or ice-fishing poles.
Spring-thaw flooding on the lower Susquehanna may be less likely.
You'll spend more on air conditioning while saving on winter heating bills.
Fall colors here will be less showy as many maples will struggle to grow here. Instead, pine plantations are a possibility.
Sweet corn will grow faster. Potato and apple yields are likely to decline.
Dairy farmers here will have to become even more efficient to offset heat stress to cows, poorer yields of on-the-farm feed and possible challenges from milk producers in New Zealand and Australia.
Trout fishing may decline, while swimming, boating, golf and fishing for warm-water fish will likely increase.
"Certainly climate change is going to be happening, so preparing and adapting is something that needs to be done," Dr. James Shortle, a Penn State professor of agricultural and environmental economics and one of 10 lead researchers from Penn State who authored the report, said.
Among the be-prepared recommendations in the report: Communities should build more ballfields and bike paths.
The 350-page analysis, "Pennsylvania Climate Impact Assessment," was required by the Pennsylvania Climate Change Act passed by the Legislature in 2007. It was released by the state Department of Environmental Protection and is available online at www.depweb.state.pa.us. Fill in "Climate Change" in the keyword space.
The report states that global warming is already occurring and will accelerate, regardless of what the world does now.
However, the Pennsylvania scientists predict climate-change effects on two levels. One, if global-warming emissions continue to increase through the 21st century. Another scenario assumes the world reduces emissions and changes will be far more moderate.
Regardless of what action the world takes, "It is very likely that Pennsylvania will warm throughout the 21st century," the report states.
Following is a summary of key changes the state faces, according to the report.
ClimateBy the end of the century, the median temperature will increase by 7 degrees in the worst-case scenario and 3.5 degrees if emissions are decreased in the next 40 years.
The growing season will be extended by three weeks under lower emissions and by five weeks if global warming is not moderated.
Expect more extreme weather, whether storms or dry periods. "Flashier" storms may mean more runoff and erosion of soil and pollution into local streams and the Chesapeake Bay.
AgricultureEffects may be mixed for farmers.
Warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons may help yields of hay, corn and soybeans, but it may also raise yields elsewhere, increasing global production and pushing down prices for Pennsylvania farmers.
Warmer temperatures may continue to drive poultry and hog farming farther north to Pennsylvania.
State wineries may be able to grow higher-value European grapes for the first time.
"Among Pennsylvania farmers, dairy producers may experience the greatest challenges from climate change given their reliance on own-crop production, animal heat stress due to housing in the ambient environment, and impacts to forage quality that will affect productivity," the report said.
However, Don McNutt, director of the Lancaster County Conservation District, has faith in local farmers to adapt to any curves coming their way.
"Agriculture will step to the plate on that challenge, I think, really well. Never count the Lancaster County farmer out. They will think of a way to ingeniously step over the next hurdle. They've been doing it for more than 300 years."
McNutt predicted that continued genetic engineering will help farmers grow more heat-tolerant crops. Warmer feedlots could be cooled with geo-thermal systems, he said.
And the fact that local dairy farmers are within a day's drive of one-third of the nation's population puts them in better standing to weather fluctuating markets, McNutt thinks.
"We have a lot going for us."
The report said organic agriculture may get a boost with its moisture-retaining matter, but an increase in weeds may offset that advantage.
Forests"Climate change will likely cause many changes in Pennsylvania's forests," the report notes.
Northern hardwood trees such as the aspens and birches are expected to become extinct under worst-case scenarios. Southern species such as oaks and hickories will likely become more common.
The eight most common species currently in Pennsylvania — red and sugar maple, black birch, black cherry, beech, hemlock, white ash and northern red oak — are all projected to shrink, maybe even disappear.
Production of maple syrup in the state looks bleak.
Forest pests may increase, as well as invasive plants such as kudzu and Canada thistle.
Effects on the state's timbering industry are expected to be dramatic. The most valuable commercial tree, black cherry, is predicted to decline substantially, if not disappear.
Instead, loblolly and shortleaf pines, now in southern states, may be grown here, changing the makeup of trees grown for commercial sale.
Once new species are established, warmer temperatures, more precipitation and carbon dioxide fertilization may increase growth rates.
Waterways and fishDiversity of life in streams and wetlands will likely suffer from increased water temperatures and conditions that favor invasive species.
One big casualty: wild brook trout, the state fish, which survives only in pristine, cold water.
Human HealthMore intense summer heat will lead to more heat-related deaths, especially among those who don't have access to air conditioning. But people freezing to death will decline.
Smog and its harm to people with respiratory problems will increase.
Tourism, Outdoor RecreationThe report predicts that even with snow-making equipment, in the worst-case scenario ski resorts in the state may not survive.
The demand for fishing, boating and swimming is likely to increase, and the Fish and Boat Commission may want to increase access to streams and lakes and, perhaps, even consider building more reservoirs.
Deer may survive over winter at a higher rate, presenting new management challenges.
Golf, tennis and biking similarly will see upticks.
"Local communities should plan for this increase in demand for sports fields, bicycle paths, etc.," the report notes
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