It was not unexpected that the Mirwaiz-led All Parties Hurriyat Conference would reverse its stand on the elections and not call for boycott. After all, only a few months ago, the Hurriyat leaders had been humiliated when people ignored their boycott call, turning up in large numbers to cast their votes in the Assembly elections.
The other factor that narrowed the choice for the separatist amalgam was Sajjad Lone’s plunge into politics. But Lone, the chairman of the People’s Conference, and Mirwaiz differ a little when it comes to their philosophies.
Sajjad, along with his brother Bilal Gani Lone, was very much a part of the Mirwaiz-led Hurriyat Conference. That is, till he fell out with the Mirwaiz over a personal issue in 2005. The story goes that Mirwaiz participated in the funeral prayers of the militant (Rafiq Ahmad Dar alias Ladri of Al Ummer Mujahideen) who was accused of killing Sajjad’s father, Abdul Gani Lone — the founder leader of the Hurriyat conglomerate. But Bilal, Sajjad’s elder brother continued his association with the Mirwaiz. Initial acrimony apart, both Sajjad and Bilal are now on cordial terms.
It is perhaps against this backdrop that the acting chairman of the Mirwaiz-led Hurriyat faction, Molvi Abbas Ansari, defended Sajjad’s decision, comparing it to that of Shaikh Mohammad Abdullah’s — who contested elections after heading the Plebiscite Front.
But this is not the first time separatist leaders have been led by the situation. Last year, reacting to the economic blockade of Kashmir that was enforced by Jammu rioters during the Amarnath land row, Syed Ali Geelani called for a cross LOC march in August. Mirwaiz had then said that the march would be undertaken only after August 15. Meanwhile, the JKLF chief, Yasin Malik chose to go on a hunger strike.
While traders and fruit growers defied Geelani, Mirwaiz and Malik and by going ahead with the march on August 11. Consequently, the separatist leaders were left with little choice but to fall in line. But the march was stopped at Chahal village near Uri after the police opened fire killing Shaikh Abdul Aziz, People’s League chief and three others.
The Hurriyat Conference, a combination of more than two-dozen groups, was formed in 1993. The agenda was to provide political leadership to the armed struggle launched by the Kashmiri youth in the late 80s.
Back then, Robin Raphael, an American diplomat was a frequent visitor to Kashmir. Before the formation of the Hurriyat Conference, she had extensive meetings with separatist leaders, who were heading individual outfits. A common impression, confirmed by separatist leaders privately, was that Raphael had motivated separatists to get together under one banner.
“The Hurriyat was formed to lead the movement from the front and keep initiative with itself”, says Tahir Mohiuddin, senior journalist and editor of the Urdu weekly Chattan. “But it failed bitterly,” adds Mohiuddin, “Not a single instance can be cited where Hurriyat leaders have played a lead role.” “The initiative,” he says, “ always remained either with militants or Pakistan or the common people. Hurriyat leaders had simply to follow these initiatives.”
After militants issued a diktat against casting votes, the Hurriyat leaders had to campaign against polling in the 1996 parliamentary and Assembly elections. The Hurriyat continued with this stand in later elections as well. However, with the dwindling influence of militants, the Hurriyat changed its position.
In the 2002 Assembly elections, the People’s Conference was accused of fielding proxy candidates, and Syed Ali Geelani sought the expulsion of both, Sajjad and Bilal from the amalgam. Mirwaiz, however, stood by the Lone brothers. And this led to division in the separatist conglomerate with Syed Ali Geelani forming a rival faction.
Altaf Hussain, BBC’s north India correspondent is of the view that “the mailing address of the separatist movement in Kashmir has been the Hurriyat. It has never led the movement. Nor has it ever had the potential to change the course of events.” Hussain adds that people have associated themselves with the platform because of its ideology. “Otherwise, none of the leaders has ever inspired the ordinary people,” he adds.
Ubair Shah, a business professional, agrees. “People don’t take them (the separatist leaders) seriously. They held several rounds of talks with New Delhi. And it made little difference. If tomorrow they decide to take part in elections, it would be just another day for them.”
Sunday, April 19, 2009
The Hurriyat Conference: Born to follow, not lead
It was not unexpected that the Mirwaiz-led All Parties Hurriyat Conference would reverse its stand on the elections and not call for boycott. After all, only a few months ago, the Hurriyat leaders had been humiliated when people ignored their boycott call, turning up in large numbers to cast their votes in the Assembly elections.
The other factor that narrowed the choice for the separatist amalgam was Sajjad Lone’s plunge into politics. But Lone, the chairman of the People’s Conference, and Mirwaiz differ a little when it comes to their philosophies.
Sajjad, along with his brother Bilal Gani Lone, was very much a part of the Mirwaiz-led Hurriyat Conference. That is, till he fell out with the Mirwaiz over a personal issue in 2005. The story goes that Mirwaiz participated in the funeral prayers of the militant (Rafiq Ahmad Dar alias Ladri of Al Ummer Mujahideen) who was accused of killing Sajjad’s father, Abdul Gani Lone — the founder leader of the Hurriyat conglomerate. But Bilal, Sajjad’s elder brother continued his association with the Mirwaiz. Initial acrimony apart, both Sajjad and Bilal are now on cordial terms.
It is perhaps against this backdrop that the acting chairman of the Mirwaiz-led Hurriyat faction, Molvi Abbas Ansari, defended Sajjad’s decision, comparing it to that of Shaikh Mohammad Abdullah’s — who contested elections after heading the Plebiscite Front.
But this is not the first time separatist leaders have been led by the situation. Last year, reacting to the economic blockade of Kashmir that was enforced by Jammu rioters during the Amarnath land row, Syed Ali Geelani called for a cross LOC march in August. Mirwaiz had then said that the march would be undertaken only after August 15. Meanwhile, the JKLF chief, Yasin Malik chose to go on a hunger strike.
While traders and fruit growers defied Geelani, Mirwaiz and Malik and by going ahead with the march on August 11. Consequently, the separatist leaders were left with little choice but to fall in line. But the march was stopped at Chahal village near Uri after the police opened fire killing Shaikh Abdul Aziz, People’s League chief and three others.
The Hurriyat Conference, a combination of more than two-dozen groups, was formed in 1993. The agenda was to provide political leadership to the armed struggle launched by the Kashmiri youth in the late 80s.
Back then, Robin Raphael, an American diplomat was a frequent visitor to Kashmir. Before the formation of the Hurriyat Conference, she had extensive meetings with separatist leaders, who were heading individual outfits. A common impression, confirmed by separatist leaders privately, was that Raphael had motivated separatists to get together under one banner.
“The Hurriyat was formed to lead the movement from the front and keep initiative with itself”, says Tahir Mohiuddin, senior journalist and editor of the Urdu weekly Chattan. “But it failed bitterly,” adds Mohiuddin, “Not a single instance can be cited where Hurriyat leaders have played a lead role.” “The initiative,” he says, “ always remained either with militants or Pakistan or the common people. Hurriyat leaders had simply to follow these initiatives.”
After militants issued a diktat against casting votes, the Hurriyat leaders had to campaign against polling in the 1996 parliamentary and Assembly elections. The Hurriyat continued with this stand in later elections as well. However, with the dwindling influence of militants, the Hurriyat changed its position.
In the 2002 Assembly elections, the People’s Conference was accused of fielding proxy candidates, and Syed Ali Geelani sought the expulsion of both, Sajjad and Bilal from the amalgam. Mirwaiz, however, stood by the Lone brothers. And this led to division in the separatist conglomerate with Syed Ali Geelani forming a rival faction.
Altaf Hussain, BBC’s north India correspondent is of the view that “the mailing address of the separatist movement in Kashmir has been the Hurriyat. It has never led the movement. Nor has it ever had the potential to change the course of events.” Hussain adds that people have associated themselves with the platform because of its ideology. “Otherwise, none of the leaders has ever inspired the ordinary people,” he adds.
Ubair Shah, a business professional, agrees. “People don’t take them (the separatist leaders) seriously. They held several rounds of talks with New Delhi. And it made little difference. If tomorrow they decide to take part in elections, it would be just another day for them.”
The other factor that narrowed the choice for the separatist amalgam was Sajjad Lone’s plunge into politics. But Lone, the chairman of the People’s Conference, and Mirwaiz differ a little when it comes to their philosophies.
Sajjad, along with his brother Bilal Gani Lone, was very much a part of the Mirwaiz-led Hurriyat Conference. That is, till he fell out with the Mirwaiz over a personal issue in 2005. The story goes that Mirwaiz participated in the funeral prayers of the militant (Rafiq Ahmad Dar alias Ladri of Al Ummer Mujahideen) who was accused of killing Sajjad’s father, Abdul Gani Lone — the founder leader of the Hurriyat conglomerate. But Bilal, Sajjad’s elder brother continued his association with the Mirwaiz. Initial acrimony apart, both Sajjad and Bilal are now on cordial terms.
It is perhaps against this backdrop that the acting chairman of the Mirwaiz-led Hurriyat faction, Molvi Abbas Ansari, defended Sajjad’s decision, comparing it to that of Shaikh Mohammad Abdullah’s — who contested elections after heading the Plebiscite Front.
But this is not the first time separatist leaders have been led by the situation. Last year, reacting to the economic blockade of Kashmir that was enforced by Jammu rioters during the Amarnath land row, Syed Ali Geelani called for a cross LOC march in August. Mirwaiz had then said that the march would be undertaken only after August 15. Meanwhile, the JKLF chief, Yasin Malik chose to go on a hunger strike.
While traders and fruit growers defied Geelani, Mirwaiz and Malik and by going ahead with the march on August 11. Consequently, the separatist leaders were left with little choice but to fall in line. But the march was stopped at Chahal village near Uri after the police opened fire killing Shaikh Abdul Aziz, People’s League chief and three others.
The Hurriyat Conference, a combination of more than two-dozen groups, was formed in 1993. The agenda was to provide political leadership to the armed struggle launched by the Kashmiri youth in the late 80s.
Back then, Robin Raphael, an American diplomat was a frequent visitor to Kashmir. Before the formation of the Hurriyat Conference, she had extensive meetings with separatist leaders, who were heading individual outfits. A common impression, confirmed by separatist leaders privately, was that Raphael had motivated separatists to get together under one banner.
“The Hurriyat was formed to lead the movement from the front and keep initiative with itself”, says Tahir Mohiuddin, senior journalist and editor of the Urdu weekly Chattan. “But it failed bitterly,” adds Mohiuddin, “Not a single instance can be cited where Hurriyat leaders have played a lead role.” “The initiative,” he says, “ always remained either with militants or Pakistan or the common people. Hurriyat leaders had simply to follow these initiatives.”
After militants issued a diktat against casting votes, the Hurriyat leaders had to campaign against polling in the 1996 parliamentary and Assembly elections. The Hurriyat continued with this stand in later elections as well. However, with the dwindling influence of militants, the Hurriyat changed its position.
In the 2002 Assembly elections, the People’s Conference was accused of fielding proxy candidates, and Syed Ali Geelani sought the expulsion of both, Sajjad and Bilal from the amalgam. Mirwaiz, however, stood by the Lone brothers. And this led to division in the separatist conglomerate with Syed Ali Geelani forming a rival faction.
Altaf Hussain, BBC’s north India correspondent is of the view that “the mailing address of the separatist movement in Kashmir has been the Hurriyat. It has never led the movement. Nor has it ever had the potential to change the course of events.” Hussain adds that people have associated themselves with the platform because of its ideology. “Otherwise, none of the leaders has ever inspired the ordinary people,” he adds.
Ubair Shah, a business professional, agrees. “People don’t take them (the separatist leaders) seriously. They held several rounds of talks with New Delhi. And it made little difference. If tomorrow they decide to take part in elections, it would be just another day for them.”
Saturday, April 18, 2009
other stories
Communist leader Ahilya Rangnekar passes away
Veteran Communist leader Ahilya Rangnekar passed away in Mumbai on Sunday following a heart attack. She was 89.
Rangnekar died at her Matunga residence in central Mumbai, family sources said.
Strong 6.2 earthquake hits Indonesia: agency
A strong 6.2-magnitude quake struck in Indonesia's north Sulawesi province on Sunday but there were no reports of damage or injuries, the geophysics agency said.
Fire at Air India building A fire broke out on the 13th floor of the Air India headquarters building in south Mumbai in the wee hours of the morning, fire officials said.
Three dead in suspected US strike in Pakistan: officials
Three people were killed on Sunday in a suspected US missile attack targeting a militant hideout in Pakistan's tribal area bordering Afghanistan, officials said.
US family of five killed in apparent murder-suicide: police
A US man apparently murdered his wife and three small children before fatally shooting himself, police in the eastern state of Maryland said.
Venezuela's Chavez to restore ambassador in US
Hugo Chavez said that he is restoring Venezuela's ambassador in Washington, voicing hopes for a 'new era' in US relations after barely getting to know US President Barack Obama at a regional summit.
IGI's new departure terminal becomes operational
The new domestic departure terminal of the Indira Gandhi International airport in New Delhi become operational this morning with the passengers of Guwahati-bound Indigo flight using the ultra-modern setup to board their plane.
Veteran Communist leader Ahilya Rangnekar passed away in Mumbai on Sunday following a heart attack. She was 89.
Rangnekar died at her Matunga residence in central Mumbai, family sources said.
Strong 6.2 earthquake hits Indonesia: agency
A strong 6.2-magnitude quake struck in Indonesia's north Sulawesi province on Sunday but there were no reports of damage or injuries, the geophysics agency said.
Fire at Air India building A fire broke out on the 13th floor of the Air India headquarters building in south Mumbai in the wee hours of the morning, fire officials said.
Three dead in suspected US strike in Pakistan: officials
Three people were killed on Sunday in a suspected US missile attack targeting a militant hideout in Pakistan's tribal area bordering Afghanistan, officials said.
US family of five killed in apparent murder-suicide: police
A US man apparently murdered his wife and three small children before fatally shooting himself, police in the eastern state of Maryland said.
Venezuela's Chavez to restore ambassador in US
Hugo Chavez said that he is restoring Venezuela's ambassador in Washington, voicing hopes for a 'new era' in US relations after barely getting to know US President Barack Obama at a regional summit.
IGI's new departure terminal becomes operational
The new domestic departure terminal of the Indira Gandhi International airport in New Delhi become operational this morning with the passengers of Guwahati-bound Indigo flight using the ultra-modern setup to board their plane.
Strong 6.2 earthquake hits Indonesia: agency
A strong 6.2-magnitude quake struck in Indonesia's north Sulawesi province on Sunday but there were no reports of damage or injuries, the geophysics agency said.
The quake hit at 1:23 pm (0523 GMT) about 20 kilometres (12 miles) northeast of Melonguane city at a depth of 50 kilometres. No tsunami alert was issued.
"Tremors are felt in the area but not significant ones. There's no report of damage," agency official Suharjono told AFP.
The Indonesian archipelago sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire where continental plates meet, causing frequent seismic and volcanic activity.
The quake hit at 1:23 pm (0523 GMT) about 20 kilometres (12 miles) northeast of Melonguane city at a depth of 50 kilometres. No tsunami alert was issued.
"Tremors are felt in the area but not significant ones. There's no report of damage," agency official Suharjono told AFP.
The Indonesian archipelago sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire where continental plates meet, causing frequent seismic and volcanic activity.
Main task against LTTE has been achieved: Rajapaksa
Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa has said that he had addressed the main concern of the people — for which they elected him as President — that of safeguarding the country’s security.
“They wanted their motherland to be free from terrorism, and fragmentation as per the agreements inked between the terrorists and the past governments,” he told the workers of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) on Friday.
“This was my foremost task, responsibility and duty which I have successfully achieved. We have now the strength to visit the Tiger terrorists’ stronghold and their administrative capital of Kilinochchi. I visited Kilinochchi with glad tidings of comfort and joy for the new year, to our gallant war heroes who have achieved all this,” he said.
“He maintained that certain reactionary forces and friends of the terrorists, both locally and internationally, are making unfounded allegations against the government and seeking to save the terrorists from their definite and inevitable doom.
“They are accusing the government of human rights violations and the like. It is extremely regretful that some of our leaders too are aiding and abetting this campaign to deprive their motherland of international monetary and other assistance. However, the world is aware of the whole truth and the reality. And we receive all what we need and expect sans any hindrance or disruption”.
Separately, Defence Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa told the BBC that the government could not go for another humanitarian pause in the north as the 48 hour pause a few days ago did not yield any results.
The Defence Secretary made the observations after a meeting between Vijay Nambiar, chief of staff of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The U.N., which welcomed the 48-hour pause, had expressed the view that a longer pause would have been more useful.
“I told him (Mr. Nambiar) that we cannot extend our decision to restrict offensive military operations because there was no result during the previous halt in the fighting,” the Defence Secretary said.
“It’s a hostage rescue operation, something like the Entebbe rescue mission,” he said, referring to Israel’s 1976 rescue of more than 100 hostages from Entebbe airport in Uganda.
“It has to be discreet and surgical. We are carefully monitoring the ground situation. When the time comes we will go in, it is purely for the field commanders to decide.” At the same time, Mr. Gothabaya Rajapaksa said the government did not want a prolonged operation because that would give more time for the rebels to regroup.
He again denied allegations that the security forces were firing heavy weapons in the safe zone. “However, if the rebel leader, Prabakaran, is seen then we will take him out, even if it is inside the safe zone. But we will take all measures to avoid civilian casualties.”
The Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) said that the 21st batch of 514 civilians, including those injured, was evacuated on board m.v. Green Ocean. The evacuation of patients and civilians trapped in LTTE clutches in the un-cleared areas in Mullaithivu was being carried out under the ICRC flag.
The Navy also said it rescued 59 civilians who had been fleeing from the LTTE clutches on two occasions. All had been found on board white flag hoisted fibre glass dinghies
“They wanted their motherland to be free from terrorism, and fragmentation as per the agreements inked between the terrorists and the past governments,” he told the workers of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) on Friday.
“This was my foremost task, responsibility and duty which I have successfully achieved. We have now the strength to visit the Tiger terrorists’ stronghold and their administrative capital of Kilinochchi. I visited Kilinochchi with glad tidings of comfort and joy for the new year, to our gallant war heroes who have achieved all this,” he said.
“He maintained that certain reactionary forces and friends of the terrorists, both locally and internationally, are making unfounded allegations against the government and seeking to save the terrorists from their definite and inevitable doom.
“They are accusing the government of human rights violations and the like. It is extremely regretful that some of our leaders too are aiding and abetting this campaign to deprive their motherland of international monetary and other assistance. However, the world is aware of the whole truth and the reality. And we receive all what we need and expect sans any hindrance or disruption”.
Separately, Defence Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa told the BBC that the government could not go for another humanitarian pause in the north as the 48 hour pause a few days ago did not yield any results.
The Defence Secretary made the observations after a meeting between Vijay Nambiar, chief of staff of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The U.N., which welcomed the 48-hour pause, had expressed the view that a longer pause would have been more useful.
“I told him (Mr. Nambiar) that we cannot extend our decision to restrict offensive military operations because there was no result during the previous halt in the fighting,” the Defence Secretary said.
“It’s a hostage rescue operation, something like the Entebbe rescue mission,” he said, referring to Israel’s 1976 rescue of more than 100 hostages from Entebbe airport in Uganda.
“It has to be discreet and surgical. We are carefully monitoring the ground situation. When the time comes we will go in, it is purely for the field commanders to decide.” At the same time, Mr. Gothabaya Rajapaksa said the government did not want a prolonged operation because that would give more time for the rebels to regroup.
He again denied allegations that the security forces were firing heavy weapons in the safe zone. “However, if the rebel leader, Prabakaran, is seen then we will take him out, even if it is inside the safe zone. But we will take all measures to avoid civilian casualties.”
The Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) said that the 21st batch of 514 civilians, including those injured, was evacuated on board m.v. Green Ocean. The evacuation of patients and civilians trapped in LTTE clutches in the un-cleared areas in Mullaithivu was being carried out under the ICRC flag.
The Navy also said it rescued 59 civilians who had been fleeing from the LTTE clutches on two occasions. All had been found on board white flag hoisted fibre glass dinghies
“Information being obtained from German Tax Office
Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram on Saturday described BJP leader L.K. Advani’s 100-day plan to bring back illegal money stashed away in foreign tax havens as a “smokescreen.”
In a hard-hitting reaction to the BJP prime ministerial candidate’s statement issued in Mumbai on Friday, he told PTI: “I am afraid Mr. Advani is doing more harm than good by repeatedly raising this issue, especially when he has been informed of the efforts being made by the government.”
As explained in his letter to Mr. Advani on May 16 last year, the government was already working with the German Central Tax Office to procure the information relating to deposits in LGT Bank in Liechtenstein.
Mr. Chidambaram said the government had made “significant” progress in acquiring information.
“I am not at liberty to disclose the progress made because there are still some procedural formalities required by the German Tax Office,” he said. At the appropriate time, he was sure, the Indian government would be able to release the information obtained.
“I wonder whether he [Advani] is unwittingly alerting those who have deposits abroad to re-arrange their affairs in the next four weeks before a new government is sworn in.”
Mr. Chidambaram said Mr. Advani continued to “mystify” the issues of capital flying out of the country.
He said no one denied that some people had illegally taken money out of the country and kept it in banks and other places protected by strong secrecy laws.
In a hard-hitting reaction to the BJP prime ministerial candidate’s statement issued in Mumbai on Friday, he told PTI: “I am afraid Mr. Advani is doing more harm than good by repeatedly raising this issue, especially when he has been informed of the efforts being made by the government.”
As explained in his letter to Mr. Advani on May 16 last year, the government was already working with the German Central Tax Office to procure the information relating to deposits in LGT Bank in Liechtenstein.
Mr. Chidambaram said the government had made “significant” progress in acquiring information.
“I am not at liberty to disclose the progress made because there are still some procedural formalities required by the German Tax Office,” he said. At the appropriate time, he was sure, the Indian government would be able to release the information obtained.
“I wonder whether he [Advani] is unwittingly alerting those who have deposits abroad to re-arrange their affairs in the next four weeks before a new government is sworn in.”
Mr. Chidambaram said Mr. Advani continued to “mystify” the issues of capital flying out of the country.
He said no one denied that some people had illegally taken money out of the country and kept it in banks and other places protected by strong secrecy laws.
Gold world looks at Akshaya Tritiya with hope
India's benchmark stock index, Sensex, is up; and investors are slowly going back to equity markets from bullion. Because, gold is losing its charm as a safe haven investment. And, gold prices are sliding slowly.
It seems investors have got the hint and they are slowly shifting their money from gold to equity. And, this is happening at a time when Akshaya Tritiya is round the corner — on April 27 — to be precise. That is a day when Indians buy gold and silver as a symbol of good fortunes. And, a year like 2009, which is supposed to be the worst one in the recent past, everybody will need a lot of luck to tide over the global crisis.
So will gold bring luck to people this Akshaya Tritiya? It may. If you take the cues from the market, it is obvious that gold prices are dipping and at a time when sales are bound to shoot up on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya. Remember, jewellery sales were downs to unimaginable levels in India and traders had stopped import of the yellow metal in February and March.
In normal circumstances, India is the top importer of the metal. But in February and March India shipped tonnes of gold to Dubai — it came from scarp gold sales.
Now, when the prices are dipping below Rs 14K, there is a chance that this Akshaya Tritiya people will flock to jewellery shops to boost their fortunes.
And, jewelers know that. The obvious hint lies in the rise in imports in April. In the first fortnight of the month around 10 tonnes of gold has been imported to India. Following this, global markets are now looking at Indian demand for further cues.
Silver import has also begun. Though some silver stock was available, more imports were expected on falling prices.
Gold prices came down by 10.80 per cent, or by Rs 285, to Rs 14,045 per 10 gm in the Mumbai spot market this week compared with its previous close. It hit the peak of
Rs 15,745 on February 21. Silver on Friday fell by 10.93 per cent, or Rs 850, to Rs 20,690 a kg from its previous close.
Prices were rising internationally and gold was quoted at a discount (to landed cost) in India. This has led to a halt in import, while premium in overseas markets tempted arbitrageurs to export gold in the form of crude jewellery.
Even as gold is falling in international markets, almost 14 per cent down from $1,000 per ounce in the third week February to $868 on Friday, traders are awaiting demand from India ahead of the festival on April 27.
Globally, investors have booked some profit, resulting in a fall in prices, but investors may re-enter the market soon. Even the traders in Mumbai’s jewellery market expect the demand to re-emerge.
It seems investors have got the hint and they are slowly shifting their money from gold to equity. And, this is happening at a time when Akshaya Tritiya is round the corner — on April 27 — to be precise. That is a day when Indians buy gold and silver as a symbol of good fortunes. And, a year like 2009, which is supposed to be the worst one in the recent past, everybody will need a lot of luck to tide over the global crisis.
So will gold bring luck to people this Akshaya Tritiya? It may. If you take the cues from the market, it is obvious that gold prices are dipping and at a time when sales are bound to shoot up on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya. Remember, jewellery sales were downs to unimaginable levels in India and traders had stopped import of the yellow metal in February and March.
In normal circumstances, India is the top importer of the metal. But in February and March India shipped tonnes of gold to Dubai — it came from scarp gold sales.
Now, when the prices are dipping below Rs 14K, there is a chance that this Akshaya Tritiya people will flock to jewellery shops to boost their fortunes.
And, jewelers know that. The obvious hint lies in the rise in imports in April. In the first fortnight of the month around 10 tonnes of gold has been imported to India. Following this, global markets are now looking at Indian demand for further cues.
Silver import has also begun. Though some silver stock was available, more imports were expected on falling prices.
Gold prices came down by 10.80 per cent, or by Rs 285, to Rs 14,045 per 10 gm in the Mumbai spot market this week compared with its previous close. It hit the peak of
Rs 15,745 on February 21. Silver on Friday fell by 10.93 per cent, or Rs 850, to Rs 20,690 a kg from its previous close.
Prices were rising internationally and gold was quoted at a discount (to landed cost) in India. This has led to a halt in import, while premium in overseas markets tempted arbitrageurs to export gold in the form of crude jewellery.
Even as gold is falling in international markets, almost 14 per cent down from $1,000 per ounce in the third week February to $868 on Friday, traders are awaiting demand from India ahead of the festival on April 27.
Globally, investors have booked some profit, resulting in a fall in prices, but investors may re-enter the market soon. Even the traders in Mumbai’s jewellery market expect the demand to re-emerge.
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